Ukuhlaziywa kwethrendi kwesonto eliqala ngo-Agasti 11th 2013
Izinqumo zenqubomgomo eyisisekelo sangesonto eledlule kanye nemicimbi yezindaba ezinomthelela omkhulu, bezilawulwa kakhulu yilezi: insizakalo kanye nokukhiqiza ama-PMI ashicilelwe ngabakwaMarkit economics, izingqungquthela zabezindaba ngabaphathi bamabhange amakhulu aphambili, amabhalansi ezokuhweba emazweni afana neJapan, China ne-USA kanye nobuningi bezinkomba zemizwa yokusabalalisa.
Inqubomgomo ebalulekile yesonto kanye nemicimbi yezindaba ezinomthelela omkhulu
I-ajenda eyisisekelo yaleli sonto igxile kakhulu kulokhu: ukubalwa kokuqala kwezibalo ze-GDP zaseJapan kanye namazwe amaningi aseYurophu, i-USA kanye nenombolo ye-inflation yase-UK kanye nokungasebenzi, i-index ye-ZEW yaseJalimane, ukuthengiswa kwezitolo kwe-USA kanye ne-Philly Fed index yokukhiqiza. Kukhona nodaba oluncane lokuthi iBoE MPC yase-UK ivote kanjani maqondana nokugcina indawo yabo yokuthengwa kwempahla isesimweni esikhona samanje sama- £ 375 billion.
Ngesikhathi sokuhweba ngesonto eledlule iningi lamabhangqa amakhulu emali, izimbhangqwana zezimpahla, izinkomba kanye nempahla zigcine umkhondo wazo nomfutho wazo. Kwakungekho okuncane endleleni yemicimbi emisha emikhulu, noma izinqumo zenqubomgomo eziyisisekelo, zokubangela ukuguqulwa kwethrendi enkulu.
Njengoba sesibhale imicimbi yezindaba eyisisekelo ehlelelwe leli sonto manje sizobheka kuqala isonto elizayo sisebenzisa ukuhlaziywa kwezobuchwepheshe ngazimbili ezinkulu zemali, ngazimbili zezimpahla, izinkomba nempahla. Ngesikhathi sokuhlaziywa kwethu sizogxila kuzinkomba ezisetshenziswa kakhulu ezihlelwe eshadini lansuku zonke kuphela, noma singabheka ishadi lamasonto onke futhi.
Ekuhlaziyeni kwethu sizosebenzisa amakhandlela / imigoqo ye-Heikin Ashi ukwenza isenzo samanani, ama-pivots ansuku zonke, ahlanganiswe namazinga abalulekile wokusekelwa nokumelana nezilinganiso ezilula ezihambayo ezinjenge-200 kanye ne-50 SMA. Sizosebenzisa izinkomba ezimbalwa ezithandwayo ezivela kumaqembu wezinkomba ezejwayelekile okungukuthi: i-MACD, i-DMI, i-Bollinger bands, i-stochastics, i-RSI ne-PSAR. Eziningi zalezi zinkomba zizolungiswa izilungiselelo zazo ngomzamo 'wokushaya' okuvame ukubizwa ngokuthi "umsindo wemakethe". Sizobheka futhi nethuluzi le-Fibonacci.
I-EUR / USD iqhubekile nomkhuba wayo we-bullish eyaqala ngoJulayi 10/11 noma ngemuva kwalokho. Le pair enkulu yemali, selokhu yephule ama-SMA angama-200 yaya phezulu ngo-Julayi 11, ivale amapayipi angaphezu kwama-550 enyangeni yekhalenda kusukela ekuphrintweni kukaJulayi 9 ka-12800. Abahlaziyi abaningi bezobuchwepheshe bazobe befuna ukuphindiselwa kabusha kwendalo okususelwa ekusebenziseni Ithuluzi le-Fibonacci ekubuyiseleni emuva okungu-23.6% kuka-circa 13250 ukusuka phezulu njengamanje ka-13400. Ukusola ukuthi i-EUR / USD kungenzeka kungenxa yokubuyisa kugcizelelwa yibhendi ephezulu yeBollinger ephuliwe. Kodwa-ke, uma ubheka izinkomba zokuhweba ezishintshayo zamanje abathengisi abaningi bangazizwa benamandla ngokugcina nje ukuthambekela komfutho omude njengamanje. I-DMI, esimeni esilungisiwe sama-20 yenze ukuphakama okuphezulu ezinsukwini ezisanda kwedlula njengeMACD. I-PSAR ingaphansi kwentengo, kanti i-RSI njengamanje ifunda ngaphezulu kwama-60. Ama-stochastics asesimweni esilungisiwe esingu-10,10,3 asazowela futhi yize ephumile endaweni ethengwe ngokweqile ahlulekile ukuqhubekela phambili. Iningi labathengisi be-swing bazokwelulekwa ukuthi balinde isiqinisekiso, kusuka ezinkombeni eziningi ezithandwa kakhulu zokuhweba, ukuthi lokhu kuguqulwa kwamanje kuphelile ngaphambi kokuya emsebenzini omncane. Mhlawumbe njengoba abathengisi abancane kufanele ukuthi babheke ukuthi i-PSAR ivele ngenhla kwentengo, kuthi i-DMI, MACD ibe yimbi bese kuthi i-RSI yehle ngaphansi kwezinga eliphakathi kwama-50 ngaphambi kokushwiba. Abahwebi abagibele lo msebenzi omude kusukela ekuqaleni kukaJulayi kumele balungise izitobhi ngokufanele. Mhlawumbe usebenzisa i-PSAR ukubeka isitimela sabo sokulandela umkhondo ukuze ikhiye kuzuzo kuze kube manje. I-13,300 kungaba ileveli yokuma esobala enikezwe ukuthi futhi iyinombolo elandelayo yokhiye oyindilinga ebheke phansi.
GBP / USD iqale ukuthambekela kwayo okuphakeme kwesikhathi samanje ngendlela efanayo ne-EUR / USD ngomhlaka 9 ku-11/15,000 kuJulayi. Ngokufana ne-EUR / USD izinzuzo zepayipi zibalulekile, kusuka ku-15,500 kuya entengo yamanje ye-9. Abahlaziyi abaningi bezobuchwepheshe bazophinde basebenzise ithuluzi labo leFibonacci, badwebe ukubuyiswa kabusha kusuka phansi kukaJulayi 8 kuya phezulu ku-Agasti 23.6 futhi babikezela ukuwa okusondela ezingeni lama-15,400%, noma inombolo ye-psyche engu-XNUMX. Kumele kuqashelwe ukuthi ukusetshenziswa ngempumelelo kwethuluzi le-Fibonacci kudinga ukudwetshwa kabusha nsuku zonke.
Uma ubheka ezinye izinkomba ziveza isimo esifanayo naleso se-EUR / USD, i-currency pair evame ukuba nokuhlangana okuqinile komlando nekhebula. I-PSAR ingaphansi kwentengo, i-MACD ne-DMI inezimo ezinhle, okwenza kube phezulu kakhulu ngezikhathi zamuva nje zansuku zonke futhi amakhandlela amabili akamuva kaHeikin Ashi avaliwe ngamathunzi abheke phezulu. Ibhendi ephezulu yakwaBollinger yephuliwe, ama-stochastics (esimweni esilungisiwe esingu-10,10,3) aphakathi no-circa 50, kanti i-RSI njengamanje ifunda ama-62. Abahwebi bazophinde belulekwe ukuba bavale noma iyiphi inzuzo ngesikhathi lokhu kwenziwa ngokusetshenziswa ngempumelelo kwezitobhi zokulandela umkhondo, mhlawumbe kusetshenziswa i-PSAR njengegeji. I-15,450 ingathathwa njengokubeka isitobhu okusobala noma i-15,400 inikezwe ukuthi ihambisana nokubuyiswa kabusha kwe-Fibonacci okungu-23.6%. Abahwebi bangacabanga ukuhlala ikhebula elide njengesikhundla esinengqondo kuze kube yilapho izinkomba zokuhwebelana eziyisihluthulelo ezimbalwa zibhalise zinegethivu. Mhlawumbe njenge-RSI encane yokuwela umugqa ophakathi kwama-50, i-PSAR izovela ngaphezu kwentengo ne-DMI ne-MACD, isebenzisa inketho ye-histogram, ukuphrinta ama-lows amasha.
AUD / USD ukubuyela emuva ngendlela emangalisayo ngo-Agasti 5th ngemuva kokuthi umbusi we-RBA kanye nekomidi bemangaze imakethe yeFX (nezimakethe ezibanzi), ngokunciphisa kuphela isilinganiso se-Aussie base 0.25% lapho abahlaziyi abaningi nabahlaziyi bezimakethe babikezele okungenani ukwehla okungu-0.5% . Kuvele ukuthi imakethe ibinentengo yokwehla ngo-0.5% njengoba i-Aussie ihlangene namaqembu ayo amakhulu emali. Ngokwengxenye esele yezikhathi zokuhweba zangesonto eledlule imakethe yaqhubeka i-bullish Aussie ngenxa yedatha yezomnotho ethuthukisiwe eyashicilelwa yiChina, umlingani omkhulu wezohwebo wase-Australia, ngempahla yayo nemali yayo yezimpahla. Ngokunikezwa kokukhuphuka kwentengo okufishane kwabahlaziyi abaningi bazophendukela kuthuluzi le-Fibonacci ukufuna ukubuyela emuva okuya ezingeni le-23.6% noma ku-circa 9100 kusukela ekuvalweni kwamanje kwe-9250.
Uma ubheka izinkomba ezithandwa ukuhweba nge-swing i-DMI ne-MACD zisanda kuba muhle, i-RSI ingaphezulu komugqa ophakathi nama-55. Iqembu eliphakathi leBollinger liphuliwe laya phezulu, ngenkathi ama-stochastics ewelile futhi asephumile kuma-70 , evame ukumakwa njengendawo eyeqiwe. Abahwebi bazophinda belulekwe ukuba bahlale nomkhuba wamanje, baphathe izitobhi ngokucophelela, ngenkathi kungenzeka ukuthi bafune ukuguqulwa kwezinkomba eziningi ezishiwo ngaphambi kokucabanga ngokuhweba okufishane. Izinga lomdlandla lokuguqulwa kwesilinganiso senzalo livame ukuba 'nempilo' enkulu kunezinye izehlakalo zezindaba ezibalulekile, noma ezinomthelela omkhulu.
indices
I-DJIA, esikhathini esingamasonto amathathu edlule, ikhombise iphethini yezokuphepha elwela ukwenza noma yikuphi ukuzuza kulokhu okulandelayo. Njengoba kunendawo ephukile ngendlela yezindawo eziphakeme zomlando kungavela ukuthi abenzi bezimakethe kanye nabashukumisi balwela ukuthola inkomba yokuqhubekisela phezulu ngaphandle kwezindaba ezibalulekile eziyisisekelo eziyimbangela.
Njengoba kudlula inyanga ngayinye, ngokuncishiswa kwemali engamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama- $ 85 ngohlelo lweFed, umthelela ezimakethe zezimali zase-USA zesikhuthazo esengeziwe ubonakala wehla. I-DJIA iqale ukuhlehla ngo-Agasti 6th kungasuselwa kuzindaba ezithile ezingezinhle, kepha kungenzeka kube ukuqeda umuzwa wamanje nomfutho. Inkomba isiqalile ukuthuthukisa iphethini ekhombisa ukuthi kungenzeka ukuthambekela okusha okwehlayo okuzayo.
I-PSAR ingaphezu kwentengo, i-RSI ingaphansi komugqa ophakathi kuka-50, i-MACD ne-DMI ayinawo futhi iphrinta okwehliswayo okuphansi kwi-histogram, ibhendi yaseBollinger emaphakathi yephuliwe kwehla, i-stochastics, ku-9,9,3 ukubeka, seqe futhi saphuma endaweni ethe xaxa. Amakhandlela / imigoqo yakamuva ye-Hiekin Ashi ivaliwe ngezithunzi ezibheke phansi. Isilinganiso sokuhamba sezinsuku ezilula ezingamashumi ayisihlanu sibonakala uma kungenzeka kube nekhefu elibalulekile kokubi. Abahwebi bazokwelulekwa ukuthi babheke ukuguqulwa kwezinkomba zamanje ngaphambi kokuzibophezela ekufinyeleleni inkomba. Mhlawumbe ubuncane i-PSAR ebonakala ngezansi kwentengo futhi i-DMI ne-MACD iba muhle.
yezimbiwa
Uwoyela we-WTI uqhubeke nokuba ukuphepha okunzima ukuqagela emavikini amuva nje ngokuguquguquka okukhulu nsuku zonke. Okwamanje ezokuphepha ziyi-bearish, kepha iphethini kungenzeka ithuthuke isikisela ikhefu eliya phezulu. I-DMI inhle futhi yenze ukuphakama okuphezulu ezinsukwini ezisanda kwedlula, i-MACD yenze amazinga aphansi kakhulu, i-RSI ineminyaka engama-55 kanti ama-stochastics abekwe endaweni engu-9,9,3 awelele phezulu. Abahwebi bazokwelulekwa ukuthi baqaphe lokhu kuphepha ngokucophelela, mhlawumbe uma i-PSAR ibonakala ingezansi kwentengo iphuma ezikhundleni zabo ezimfushane futhi icabanga ngokujula isikhathi eside.
Gold
Njengoba kufakazelwe emasontweni edlule igolide lehlulekile ukuveza indawo ephephile ebonwe kwezinye izimo zemakethe. I-RORO (ingozi engcupheni ye-paradigm) isiphuphile futhi negolide lilahlekelwe yindawo yalo ephephile. Ngokuthi ngabe lokhu kuyisilinganiso sesikhashana noma ukukhonjiswa okuqhubekayo kwesikhuthazo semali se-Fed, kusazobonakala. Igolide libukeka lithuthukisa umkhuba we-bearish, noma kunjalo, ngesikhathi sokugcina sokuhweba sangesonto eledlule ezokuphepha zaqala ukuthatha iphethini yezokuphepha ukuze iye phezulu. I-MACD yaba nokwenzeka futhi yaphakama kakhulu kwi-histogram, i-RSI ingaphezulu kokuphrinta okungama-50 kuma-53, ama-stochastics asendaweni eyi-9,9,3 asanda kweqa aya phezulu futhi ibhendi yeBollinger emaphakathi yephuliwe yaya phezulu. Intengo manje seyimiswe ngokusezingeni eliseduze ne-50 SMA lapho 'ihlale khona' ebangeni eliqinile izinsuku ezimbalwa. Abahwebi begolide elifishane bazokwelulekwa ukuthi baqaphe izikhundla zabo ngokucophelela ukuze babone obunye ubufakazi bokuthi intengo ingahle iye phezulu.
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