ISITHOMBE SOKUMAKethwa KWEVEKI NGESONTO 08/02 - 12/02 | I-INVESTOR OPTIMISM ISABALALELA EMHLABENI WONKE, NJENGOBA IVOLCINE ROLLOUTS LIHAMBA PHAMBILI NGESIKHATHI, I-USD IYAQHUBEKA UKUVUKA NGOKUBHEKISELELA ONTANGA BAYO
Phakathi nesonto lokuhweba eliphela ngoFebhuwari 5 izimakethe zokulingana bezilokhu zinamandla kakhulu, izizathu zokuvuselelwa kwengozi zihlukahlukene.
- - Ukukhishwa kwemithi yokugoma e-United States, e-UK nasezingxenyeni ezithile ze-Europe ziqhubekela phambili njengoba bekuhleliwe futhi, kwezinye izimo, ngaphambi kwenhloso. Ithemba lithuthuka ukuthi umvuthwandaba wakamuva wentshonalanga Nenkabazwe ufinyelele phezulu.
- - Ngenxa yenhlanganisela yemigomo kanye nezindlela zokukhiya ezisele ezikhona, ohulumeni kanye neminyango yezempilo emhlabeni jikelele babheke ngokuqapha entwasahlobo ukukhomba umuzwa wokujwayelekile ukubuya.
- - UJoe Biden, uJanet Yellen, noJerome Powell kufanele benze iqembu eliphumelelayo. Ukuzola uMongameli uJoe Biden akulethe e-White House kukhulise imizwa yabatshalizimali. Ithoni yakhe enobudlova, yamazwe omhlaba, ye-everyman ihambe kahle kuzo zonke izifunda zomhlaba.
Kuhlanganiswe nesikhuthazo sakamuva ukuzilungiselela kanye nosihlalo weFederal Reserve uJerome Powell esebenza kahle noNobhala Wezezimali uJanet Yellen (owake waba ngusihlalo weFed phambilini), ikusasa libukeka liqhakazile kwizakhamizi zase-US kanye nomnotho wazo.
Kwaphela amasonto amathathu elandelana, izinombolo zezicelo zamasonto onke ezingenamsebenzi sehlile, kuyilapho izimangalo eziqhubekayo zincipha ngenani elilinganayo. Abatshalizimali bazobheka izinombolo zakamuva ze-NFP kanye nezinga lokungasebenzi elishicilelwe ngoLwesihlanu 5 ngo-1: 30 PM isikhathi sase-UK ukuthola ubufakazi bokuthi ukulahleka kwemisebenzi sekudluliwe futhi nomsebenzi uyakhula.
Labo abasemandleni abakwazi ukubukela phansi inselelo ukumelwa kabusha kwe-post-COVID-19
Ohulumeni, amabhange amakhulu, abezomnotho, kanye nabatshalizimali abawuthathi kancane umzamo odingekayo wokuthi i-USA, i-UK, ne-EA bakhuphuke baphume emgodini wezomnotho we-COVID-19 lapho (uma) imithi yokugoma kanye ne-lockdowns isebenza, futhi singaqhubeka. Ngokwamamethrikhi athile, ukwehla kwemali kube kakhulu emakhulwini eminyaka edlule.
Umbiko wakamuva weBhange LaseNgilandi ngoLwesine ukhombise iqiniso elibi. Ukuqagela ukuthi i-Q4 2020 GDP izongena ngo--2.2% nge-GDP yonyaka ngo -8.6%. Kodwa-ke, i-BoE ilinganisela inani le-GDP le-Q1 2021 ukuthi lingene ku -4% nge-Q3 ekhonjwe njengekota lapho ukukhula kuzobuya khona.
I-USD iyaqhubeka nomfutho wayo we-2021
Kuze kube manje, phakathi no-2021, idola laseMelika liqophe inzuzo enkulu uma iqhathaniswa nontanga yalo. Inkomba yedola i-DXY inyuke ngo-1.59% unyaka nosuku no-2.05% njalo ngenyanga. Ku-91.35 ubhasikidi wedola wezimali kuseseyi-10% phansi cishe uma kuqhathaniswa nezinga langoMeyi 2020. Kodwa-ke, inkomba ihlele ukutakula okulingene uma iqhathaniswa nontanga yayo.
Njengesibonelo samandla we-USD phakathi kuka-2021 kuze kube manje, njalo ngenyanga i-EUR / USD yehle -2.87%, i-AUD / USD yehle -2.44%, i-USD / i-JPY inyuke ngo-2.24%, i-USD / i-CHF inyuke ngo-2.74%. I-GBP / i-USD ingaphandle kwezimbili ezinkulu zemali; kukhuphuke ngo-0.60% njalo ngenyanga.
Isonto elizayo
Ngokusho kweReuters, umkhiqizo wezimboni waseJalimane kufanele uveze ukuwa ngoDisemba -1.6% lapho isibalo sikhishwa ku UMsombuluko ngaphambi kokuba kuvulwe iLondon. Uma ihlanganiswe neminye imininingwane ehlosiwe yedatha yaseJalimane muva nje, imethrikhi ingashaya amanani we-DAX ne-euro.
Ukuqhubeka netimu yedatha yaseJalimane ku- NgoLwesibili, ibhalansi yakamuva yezibalo zokuhweba ishicilelwa ngenjini yokukhula ye-EA. Isibikezelo siyinsalela engu-16.2B ngoDisemba eGermany, ukuwa kusuka ku-17.2B euros ngoNovemba.
Isibalo sokuvulwa kwemisebenzi kwakamuva (i-JOLTS) esishicilelwe esimisweni saseNew York kufanele sisekele umbono wokuthi i-US yenza inqubekelaphambili engaguquki yokuqashwa. Isibikezelo ukuvuleka kwe-6.25M, noma yini engaphezulu kwe-6 M kubhekwa njenge-bullish.
Isibikezelo esokugcinwa kukawoyela e-US ukukhombisa ukuwa kwemiphongolo engu -4.26m, okuthinta intengo yomgqomo.
NgoLwesithathu Iseshini yaseTokyo ibona kushicilelwa idatha yakamuva yaseChina ye-CPI (inflation). Njalo ngonyaka nanyanga zonke, ukwehla kwamandla emali kufanele kuveze ukwanda. Isibalo se-inflation saseJalimane kufanele sibonise ukwanda kwe-1% minyaka yonke. Indikimba yokwehla kwamandla emali iyaqhubeka phakathi nezikhathi zokuhweba zangoLwesithathu nemininingwane yakamuva yase-US CPI. Inani elingu-0.2% likaJanuwari, eligcina izinga lonyaka libe ngu-1.4% yisibikezelo.
Ngesikhathi seseshini yaseNew York, kushicilelwa uhlelo lwesabelomali sase-US nohlelo lukaJanuwari lwanyanga zonke lwesabelomali. Ngokusho kwabahlaziyi, imali esetshenziswe ngoJanuwari kufanele ingene ku- - $ 147B.
Ukugxila masonto onke kuzicelo zokuqala zase-US ezingenamsebenzi kwenzeka NgoLwesine, futhi abahlaziyi balindele ukubona izimangalo ezingenamsebenzi ziwela i-4th isonto ochungechungeni, kuze kufike ku-750K.
Amehlo omhlaba wokuhweba kwangaphambili azobheka izibalo ze-GDP zase-UK lapho zikhishwa ngo-7: 00 AM isikhathi sase-UK kuqhubeke Friday, ngaphambi kokuba kuvulwe iseshini yaseLondon.
AbakwaReuters babikezela ukuthi -2% Q4 2020, isibalo sokugcina sika-2020 sibe ngu -8%. Ikota ebaluleke kakhulu ekwehleni kwekota izofika ekwakhiweni kwehle -8.6% kuthi ekukhiqizeni kwehle -7.2%.
I-Bank of England ibikezela ukuthi -4.0% ye-Q1 2021. Uma lesi sibikezelo sigcwaliseka, kuzothi nge-Q2 i-UK ibuyele esimweni somnotho esisemthethweni, esinqunywe njengezindawo ezimbili ezilandelanayo. I-euro ingaba ngaphansi kwengcindezi futhi yenyuse ukuqagela kwimali ye-bloc eyodwa lapho idatha yakamuva yokukhiqiza yezimboni ishicilelwa ngo-10: 00 ekuseni ye-Euro Area. Ukukhiqizwa konyaka ngonyaka kufanele kuveze ukwehla kwe -3.2% kanye no--2.2% ngoDisemba.
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