Ukuhumusha i-Fed Speak

Eph 27 • Phakathi kwemigqa • Ukubukwa okungu-4495 • Amazwana Off ekuhumusheni iFed Speak

Isitatimende se-FOMC sango-Ephreli sehluke kuphela ngemininingwane embalwa, ebaluleke kakhulu kusuka kuMashi wokuqala futhi besingaqukethe nakancane ushintsho kunqubomgomo.

IKomidi lalinethemba elithe xaxa kumbono wezomnotho futhi lalinaka kakhulu ukwehla kwamandla emali, kodwa ngasikhathi sinye laqapha ubungozi balo obubi bokukhula ngenxa yezinkinga zezimali.

Izinguquko esimweni samanje sezomnotho bezincane. Kuyathakazelisa ukuthi ukuqagelwa kwezinga lenzalo kwakungaphezulu kwe-hawkish, kepha akuzange kuthinte ukuholwa kwezinga le-FOMC UBernanke ushiye umnyango ukuze kuvulwe i-QE eyengeziwe, kepha akazange akhombise ukuchema ngalolu daba. Intuthuko eyengeziwe kufanele inqume ukuthi ngabe kudingeka i-QE eningi.

Mayelana nesimo senqubomgomo, akukho zinguquko ezenzekile futhi isigaba 3, 4 no-5 sesitatimende besifana nesikaMashi. I-Fed igcina isilinganiso sayo esibekiwe sezinga le-Federal Funds kuma-0 kuya kuma-¼ amaphesenti futhi kusalindelwe ukuthi izimo zezomnotho kungenzeka zivume amazinga aphansi ngokukhethekile emanani wezimali zikahulumeni okungenani ngasekupheleni kuka-2014.

I-FOMC iphinde yaqinisekisa ukuthi iyaqhubeka nohlelo lwayo lokukhulisa ukuvuthwa okuphakathi kwamasheya ayo njengoba kumenyezelwe ngoSepthemba. Futhi igcina nezinqubomgomo zayo ezikhona zokutshala imali kabusha ukukhokhelwa okuyinhloko kusuka ekubanjweni kwempahla ebanjiswe ngempahla ebanjisiwe kanye ne-ejensi kwizibambiso ezisetshenziselwe ukubuyiselwa kwempahla.

Iqaqa ukuvikeleka kokuphepha koMgcinimafa endalini. Ekugcineni, maqondana nokuvota, ngoJanuwari nangoMashi, uRichmond Fed Lacker waphikisana nesiqondiso sokubheka phambili (ngasekupheleni kuka-2014).

I-FOMC njengoba phambilini ithe umnotho ubukhula ngokulingene. Ibonile intuthuko emakethe yezabasebenzi, kodwa yengeza nokuthi izinga lokungasebenzi lisalokhu likhuphukile. Ngokokuqala ngqa bangeze:

I-FOMC iyaqhubeka nokulindela ukuthi ukukhula kuhlale ngokulingene ezindaweni zokuhlala, kepha manje bangezile “… Bese ucosha kancane kancane”. Kodwa-ke, ukungezwani kwezezimali kuthole isisindo esithe xaxa njengengozi yokwehla ekukhuleni. Esikhundleni se "Ukwehla kwamandla emali kunciphile ezinyangeni ezedlule", i-FOMC manje ithe "ukwehla kwamandla emali sekutholile ngandlela thile", kepha ngenxa yezindleko zamandla eziphakeme.

I-FOMC iphinde yengeza ukuthi ilindele ukuthi lokhu kukhushulwa kuthinte ukwehla kwamandla emali okwesikhashana. Isiphetho sokwehla kwamandla emali asishintshanga:

 

 

Uma kuqhathaniswa nezibikezelo zikaJanuwari, ababusi babuyekeze kancane isibikezelo sabo sokukhula sango-2012 safinyelela ku-2.4% kuya ku-2.9% (kusuka ku-2.2 kuye ku-2.7%). Ngo-2013, ukukhula kulindeleke ukuthi kukhuphuke kancane kunalonyaka (2.7 kuya ku-3.1%), kodwa kube ngaphansi kancane kunesibikezelo sikaJanuwari. Izinga lokukhula kwesikhathi eside kulindeleke ukuthi libe ngu-2.3 kuye ku-2.6%.

Abaphathi babeke ngokusobala ukwehla kwezinga labantu abangasebenzi muva nje futhi banciphisa isibikezelo sabo sango-2012 saba ngu-7.8 kuya ku-8% (kusuka ku-8.2 kuya ku-8.5 ngoJanuwari), kwalandelwa ukwehla ngasekupheleni kuka-2013 kuya ku-7.3 kuya ku-7.7% futhi ngo 2014 kuya ku-6.7 kuya ku-7.4%. Isibikezelo sakamuva sasicishe sifane nangoJanuwari.

Mayelana nokwehla kwamandla emali, kube nokubuyekezwa okuphezulu komkhawulo ophansi webanga elilindelekile unyaka nonyaka kuze kube unyaka we-2014, ngenkathi umngcele ophezulu uhlala ku-2% (inhloso). Ngo-2012, umngcele ophansi ubuyekezwe waba ngu-1.9% usuka ku-1.4% waya ku-1.6% usuka ku-1.4% ngo-2013 wasuka ku-1.6% waya ku-1.7% ngo-2014.

Ukuphetha, ngokuhlanganyela, abaphathi be-FOMC babenethemba elinesizotha ngokwengeziwe mayelana nokukhula kwesikhathi kanye nokusweleka kwemisebenzi kanye nethemba elithe xaxa kumanani emali.

Kodwa-ke, lezi zinguquko zika-2012 empeleni zacekelwa phansi ukubuyekeza okwehla kokuqagela kwabo kokukhula kowezi-2013/14.

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