Indlela u-X eyi-Treasure Trove Yezazi Zezomnotho

Agasti 10 • Izindaba Ezinhle • Ukubukwa okungu-598 • Amazwana Off ku-How X iyi-Treasure Trove ye-Economists

U-Elon Musk, umnikazi we-X (owayaziwa ngokuthi i-Twitter), akayena umlandeli we-Federal Reserve. Uvame ukugxeka ibhange elikhulu ngokunyusa inzalo. Uze wabhala ku-twitter ukuthi zingaba "ezilimaza kakhulu emlandweni" ngoDisemba odlule. Kodwa i-Fed ayinandaba nokuphawula okungekuhle kukaMusk. Eqinisweni, bathanda inkundla yakhe, njengoba beyibona njenge-barometer ethembekile yomnotho.

U-X usesimweni esiyingqayizivele. Inani layo njengebhizinisi liyangabazeka, yingakho uMusk ezama ukushintsha lokho ngokuqamba kabusha inkampani namanye amasu. Kodwa ukubaluleka kwayo emnothweni kuyindaba ehlukile. Inkundla ingasebenza njengenkomba ewusizo yakho kokubili izitayela eziyisisekelo kanye nomuzwa wemakethe.

X njenge-Predictor Yokuguquguquka Kwemakethe

Enye indlela i-X engasiza ngayo osomnotho iwukubikezela izinguquko zesikhashana ezintengo zesitoko kanye nesivuno sebhondi. Iqembu losomnotho, okuhlanganisa noFrancisco Vazquez-Grande, lihlaziye izikhala eziphathelene zezimali eziyizigidi ezingu-4.4 kusukela ngo-2007 kuya ku-April 2023. Basebenzise imodeli yokufunda yomshini ukuze balinganise imizwa kokuthunyelwe ngakunye: Okuhle ngesitoko esikhuphukayo; okungekuhle kumazwi kaMusk abhuqayo ngeFed.

Bathole ukuthi inkomba yabo ye-X yezezimali ihlotshaniswa kakhulu nokusabalala kwebhondi yebhizinisi (umehluko phakathi kwesivuno sebhondi yebhizinisi nekahulumeni evame ukwanda njengoba kukhula ithemba lomtshali-zimali). Ngaphezu kwalokho, okuthunyelwe akukwazi ukulandelela kuphela ukushintshashintsha kwezimali, kungakwazi ngisho nokukulindela. Umuzwa ngaphambi kokuvulwa kwemakethe yamasheya uhambisana nembuyiselo esitokweni ngosuku olulandelayo.

Kwelinye iphepha likaClara Vega nozakwabo, bathole ukuthi i-X sentiment nayo ihlobene kakhulu nesivuno sebhondi yoMgcinimafa. Eqinisweni, inamandla kunezinkomba zemizwa ezivela kwezokuxhumana ezisemthethweni ze-Fed uqobo.

X Njengesikali Sezimo Zezomnotho

Enye indlela u-X angasiza ngayo osomnotho ukukala izimo zomnotho. Ikakhulukazi, imibiko yokulahleka kwemisebenzi ibonakala inikeza ulwazi lwemakethe yezabasebenzi ngesikhathi. UThomas Keiner kanye nabanye ababhali bakhe bakha imodeli yokufunda yomshini ehlukile ukuze bahlaziye okuthunyelwe ngamagama angukhiye afana nokuthi "ukulahlekelwa umsebenzi" noma "isaziso sokudilizwa". Inkomba yabo yokulahlekelwa yimisebenzi ibonisa idatha esemthethweni emazingeni okuqashwa kusukela ngo-2015 kuya ku-2023.

Ukuhlobana kungase kube phezulu kakhulu njengoba izibalo zikahulumeni zivame ukushicilelwa sekwephuzile futhi okuthunyelwe kuvela ngokushesha. Isibonelo, u-X ngabe uthole ukwehla kokuqashwa ngesikhathi sokuphakama kobhubhane ngo-2020 ezinsukwini eziyishumi ngaphambili.

X Njengenkomba Yenqubomgomo Yezezimali

Indlela yesithathu u-X angasiza ngayo osomnotho iwukukhombisa izinqumo zenqubomgomo yezimali. U-Clara Vega nozakwabo bakholelwa ukuthi u-X angakwazi ukubikezela kangcono izinqumo zenqubomgomo yezimali ngosuku lwesimemezelo kunezinguquko ezikhiqizweni zebhondi. Futhi, inkomba yemizwa engu-X iyisibikezelo esisebenzayo sokushaqeka uma kwenzeka kuqiniswa inqubomgomo, njengokukhuphuka kwezinga. Ngokuvamile, kuba khona ukukhungatheka kokuthunyelwe ngaphambi nje kwalezi zinyathelo.

I-X ayibangeli lezi zimo zomnotho. Ibonisa nje imizwa ebanzi eseyasabalala ezimakethe zezimali. Kodwa inikeza indlela eyengeziwe yokulinganisa imizwa enjalo, engaba yigugu kakhulu ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.

Ngale kwe-Fed, abanye abahlaziyi bathola ezinye izinhlelo zokusebenza ezingaba khona. U-Agustin Indako waseCarnegie Mellon University eQatar ubale ukuthi umthamo weposi uwodwa ungabala cishe izingxenye ezintathu kwezine zomehluko ku-GDP phakathi kwamazwe.

Ngakho, okuthunyelwe, njengezithombe zesathelayithi zamalambu asebusuku, kungasiza ukuqapha isimo somnotho ngaphandle kokuncika kakhulu ezibalweni ezisemthethweni ezibambezelekile. Le nkomba ingase isebenze kahle kakhulu emazweni ampofu, lapho okuthunyelwe okuqinile kwenkundla yezokuxhumana kubonisa isimo sezokuxhumana nokusetshenziswa kwama-smartphone.

Ukuhwebelana kwe-X

Uma i-X iwusizo kangaka kwezomnotho, kungani ingenayo inzuzo eyengeziwe? Amaphepha ahlukahlukene awalihloli igebe phakathi komzabalazo ka-X wokuthola imali kanye nokusebenziseka kwawo okusobala njengethuluzi lezomnotho kanye nenkundla yolwazi. U-Musk washaya into ethile lapho ebiza inkundla yakhe ngokuthi "indawo evamile yasemadolobheni yedijithali".

Inkinga ngokombono wezomnotho ukuthi indawo yedolobha ifana nempahla yomphakathi njengamapaki namanzi ahlanzekile. Nakuba izimpahla zomphakathi zingase zibe ngezomuntu siqu, kunzima ukuzuza ngazo, ngoba kunzima ukukhokhisa abantu ngazo zonke izinzuzo ezibanikezayo. U-Musk uzama ukushintsha i-equation yezomnotho ku-X ngokunikeza izinzuzo ezengeziwe kubasebenzisi abakhokha u-$8 ngenyanga ukuze baqinisekise esizeni. Okuthunyelwe kwabo kuthola ukukhuthazwa okwengeziwe nokubonakala phakathi kwezinye izinzuzo. Kodwa lokhu kudinga ukuhwebelana. Okuthunyelwe okukhokhelwayo kungase kuqale ukuminyanisa okuthunyelwe okunenjongo kakhudlwana okuvela kubasebenzisi abangafuni ukukhokha. Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, inkundla lapho imali ibaluleke ngaphezu kokuthembela ngeke isebenze kanye nesikwele sedolobha futhi, ngenxa yalokho, njengenkomba yezomnotho. Ukunqoba kwezezimali zika-X kungaba ukulahlekelwa kosomnotho be-Fed.

Amazwana zivaliwe.

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