Meyi 20 • Ukuthengiswa Kwama-Forex Izihloko, Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-3395 • Amazwana Off Indlela yokuhlonza ingcuphe engozini yomqondo kanye nendlela okungenzeka ngayo ukuhwebelana ngokuhlobana namathuba.
Inkulumo ethi "ingozi engozini" ibinzana elivame ukusetshenziswa abahlaziyi be-FX nabahwebi. Futhi okubizwa ngokuthi "i-RORO", lo mqondo uhlobene nesimo sengqondo esivamile kanye nomuzwa wemakethe. Uma isimo semakethe siphelele, sichazwa ngokuthi “ingozi” ku-; abatshalizimali nabahwebi bakulungele ukuthatha ingozi futhi baqale ukubeka ubungozi emakethe. Ukuzidela kuphambene; abatshalizimali nabaqagela bazozifaka engozini baphume baphume emakethe, bazophuma, noma bangene kwezinye izibambiso. Lezi zibambiso ezihlukile kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali kuvame ukuchazwa ngokuthi “utshalomali lwendawo ephephile”. Ngesikhathi sokuziphatha kwemakethe engcupheni, kukhona ukuhlobana okujwayelekile okwenzekayo, kokubili ukuhlobana okungekuhle nokuhle. Ngokwesibonelo; lapho abatshalizimali nabaqagelayo besengozini, bazongena kulokhu: igolide, i-yen kanye ne-Swiss franc.
Emavikini okuqala kaMeyi 2019, kube nezibonelo zezincwadi zombhalo ezimbalwa zemizwa esengozini yokuba sengozini. Umshayeli oyinhloko wokunyakaza kwemakethe, okuhlobene nokungezwani okuvuselelwe kohwebo kwe-China-USA, ngenxa yokwenyuka kwezinsongo zentela ezivela kubaphathi bakaTrump. Izinkomba zemakethe ye-Equity zehle kakhulu ezingxenyeni ezimbili zokugcina zonyaka wezi-2018, njengoba inkulumo iqhubekela ekusetshenzisweni kwangempela kwezindleko ezibandakanya: i-USA, i-China kanye ne-Eurozone. Izinkomba eziningi zomhlaba, ikakhulukazi e-Asia, zangena endaweni yemakethe yamabhere, kuyilapho izinkomba ze-equity zase-USA nazo zingena endaweni yokulungiswa.
Ngonyaka ka-2019, kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya ku-April, izinkomba zemakethe yomhlaba zibuyise ingxenye enkulu yokulahlekelwa, eyenzeke phakathi nezingxenye ezimbili zokugcina zonyaka ka-2018. Izinkomba zemakethe yezabelo ze-USA zithumele amarekhodi aphezulu ngo-April, njengoba i-bullish motion yaqiniswa ngenxa yokubili okuyinhloko. izici. Okokuqala, phakathi nalokho okubizwa ngokuthi “inkathi yokuhola” amafemu amaningi ase-USA abike ukuthuthuka okunempilo. Ngokwemvelo, ukuncishiswa kwentela yebhizinisi ukuphathwa kukaTrump okwaqala ukusebenza ngo-2017, kusenomthelela onenzuzo ekusebenzeni okuphansi kwamafemu amaningi. Okwesibili, izinyanga ezimbalwa, i-China ne-USA bangena kwi-shuttle diplomacy mayelana nentela kanye nempi yezohwebo. Imibiko nezibuyekezo ziphakamise ukuthi zombili izinhlangothi zase zisondele ekufinyeleleni esivumelwaneni esivumelanayo, ukuze kube nobudlelwano bohwebo besikhathi esizayo.
Kodwa-ke, ekuqaleni kukaMeyi imibiko yavela ngokuzumayo emaphephandabeni ezezimali ajwayelekile ukuthi izingxoxo phakathi kwamazwe amabili anamandla kwezomnotho ayehluleka. Ngemuva kwalokho, uMongameli uTrump wathatha ezinkundleni zokuxhumana ezosabisa iChina ngokunwetshwa kwentela, ukuze afake zonke izinto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle kwamaShayina e-USA kanye nokwenyusa amanani afinyelela ku-25%, ku-$200b yezinto ezithengwayo. Ukusabela kwemakethe kwaba sezingeni eliphansi ngokushesha njengoba umuzwa wokuba sengozini usuthathelana; izinkomba eziningi zase-USA zilahlekelwe cishe ngo-7% kusukela onyakeni wazo wezi-2019 kuze kube manje. Kuphinde kwaba nokujaha ukutshala nokuqagela ngempahla ephephile.
Ngasekupheleni kwesonto lokuhweba eliphela ngoLwesihlanu zingama-17 kuNhlaba, izimakethe eziningi zezabelo zibuyile, njengoba kwavela izindaba zokuthi iChina ne-USA bazohlangana emhlanganweni we-G20 ngoJuni, kanti uTrump wathatha kuTwitter ephakamisa ukuthi kungenzeka ukwehliswa/ukuyekethisa. . Ngokunokwenzeka, kwase kuqalile ukukhanya ekuphathweni ukuthi amanani entengo yokungenisa ngaphandle angaholela ekwenyukeni okukhulu kwamanani kubathengi base-USA.
Uchungechunge olulandelayo lwamashadi, ezimisweni zesikhathi sehora elilodwa, lubonisa ukukhuphuka nokwehla kwezibambiso ezimbalwa, njengoba ithemba likhula kanye nengozi ezimakethe eziphethwe yimizwa ngoLwesine 17 May 2019. Ubudlelwano phakathi: izinkomba zemakethe, izimpahla ezithile kanye namapheya ezinhlobo zemali ahlukahlukene. kuboniswe ngokucacile. Igolide (XAU/USD) liyawa, uwoyela we-WTI uyakhuphuka, i-US 30 (DJIA) iyakhuphuka futhi yenza idola laseMelika ngobubanzi, uma kuqhathaniswa neningi lontanga yalo. Ngokuningiliziwe; igolide kanye ne-yen ngokuvamile kwehla ngesikhathi sokubeka engcupheni ngezikhathi lapho izindawo eziphephile zithengiswa ziphelile, esikhundleni sokutshalwa kwezimali okuyingozi. Uwoyela uvame ukukhuphuka, njengoba ubungozi besimo sengqondo buhlotshaniswa ngokuqondile nomsebenzi wezomnotho owandisiwe futhi ngenxa yalokho, ukwanda kwesidingo samandla emhlabeni jikelele. Iphethini iyahlehliswa lapho umuzwa wokungavikeleki ubusa; izindawo eziphephile ezifana ne-yen negolide zingakhuphuka, njengoba izinkomba ze-equity zithengiswa, njengoba kwenza uwoyela.
Ngokuphathelene nokuhweba ubungozi bengozi kusenzakalo, ifomula (ngokombono) ilula futhi iqondile. Nakuba izixwayiso ezijwayelekile ziyasebenza; akukho lutho oluqinisekile lapho ukuqagela kuhilelekile. Njengoba sibona emashadini kanye namazwana agqanyisiwe; i-DJIA rose, yen yawa, igolide lawa futhi amafutha e-WTI aphakama. Isibonelo sencwadi yombhalo sengozi ekuziphatheni kwemakethe sasisetshenziswa, njengoba abatshalizimali bephuma ezindaweni eziphephile bangena ezimpahleni eziyingozi, kuyilapho umsebenzi wokuhweba kanye nokuntengantenga nakho kwanda.
« IGDP yaseJapan, ukwehla kwamandla emali e-UK, i-GDP yaseJalimane kanye ne-European Markit PMIs kulawula ikhalenda lezomnotho phakathi nesonto. Idola lase-Aussie liyakhuphuka njengoba ukhetho lukazwelonke lunomphumela oshaqisayo, liyashelela njengoba ukwesaba kweBrexit kugqama. »
Ungayibona kanjani ingozi engcupheni ngenxa yemizwa nokuthi ungathengisa kanjani ukuhlangana namathuba.
Meyi 20 • Ukuthengiswa Kwama-Forex Izihloko, Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-3395 • Amazwana Off Indlela yokuhlonza ingcuphe engozini yomqondo kanye nendlela okungenzeka ngayo ukuhwebelana ngokuhlobana namathuba.
Inkulumo ethi "ingozi engozini" ibinzana elivame ukusetshenziswa abahlaziyi be-FX nabahwebi. Futhi okubizwa ngokuthi "i-RORO", lo mqondo uhlobene nesimo sengqondo esivamile kanye nomuzwa wemakethe. Uma isimo semakethe siphelele, sichazwa ngokuthi “ingozi” ku-; abatshalizimali nabahwebi bakulungele ukuthatha ingozi futhi baqale ukubeka ubungozi emakethe. Ukuzidela kuphambene; abatshalizimali nabaqagela bazozifaka engozini baphume baphume emakethe, bazophuma, noma bangene kwezinye izibambiso. Lezi zibambiso ezihlukile kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali kuvame ukuchazwa ngokuthi “utshalomali lwendawo ephephile”. Ngesikhathi sokuziphatha kwemakethe engcupheni, kukhona ukuhlobana okujwayelekile okwenzekayo, kokubili ukuhlobana okungekuhle nokuhle. Ngokwesibonelo; lapho abatshalizimali nabaqagelayo besengozini, bazongena kulokhu: igolide, i-yen kanye ne-Swiss franc.
Emavikini okuqala kaMeyi 2019, kube nezibonelo zezincwadi zombhalo ezimbalwa zemizwa esengozini yokuba sengozini. Umshayeli oyinhloko wokunyakaza kwemakethe, okuhlobene nokungezwani okuvuselelwe kohwebo kwe-China-USA, ngenxa yokwenyuka kwezinsongo zentela ezivela kubaphathi bakaTrump. Izinkomba zemakethe ye-Equity zehle kakhulu ezingxenyeni ezimbili zokugcina zonyaka wezi-2018, njengoba inkulumo iqhubekela ekusetshenzisweni kwangempela kwezindleko ezibandakanya: i-USA, i-China kanye ne-Eurozone. Izinkomba eziningi zomhlaba, ikakhulukazi e-Asia, zangena endaweni yemakethe yamabhere, kuyilapho izinkomba ze-equity zase-USA nazo zingena endaweni yokulungiswa.
Ngonyaka ka-2019, kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya ku-April, izinkomba zemakethe yomhlaba zibuyise ingxenye enkulu yokulahlekelwa, eyenzeke phakathi nezingxenye ezimbili zokugcina zonyaka ka-2018. Izinkomba zemakethe yezabelo ze-USA zithumele amarekhodi aphezulu ngo-April, njengoba i-bullish motion yaqiniswa ngenxa yokubili okuyinhloko. izici. Okokuqala, phakathi nalokho okubizwa ngokuthi “inkathi yokuhola” amafemu amaningi ase-USA abike ukuthuthuka okunempilo. Ngokwemvelo, ukuncishiswa kwentela yebhizinisi ukuphathwa kukaTrump okwaqala ukusebenza ngo-2017, kusenomthelela onenzuzo ekusebenzeni okuphansi kwamafemu amaningi. Okwesibili, izinyanga ezimbalwa, i-China ne-USA bangena kwi-shuttle diplomacy mayelana nentela kanye nempi yezohwebo. Imibiko nezibuyekezo ziphakamise ukuthi zombili izinhlangothi zase zisondele ekufinyeleleni esivumelwaneni esivumelanayo, ukuze kube nobudlelwano bohwebo besikhathi esizayo.
Kodwa-ke, ekuqaleni kukaMeyi imibiko yavela ngokuzumayo emaphephandabeni ezezimali ajwayelekile ukuthi izingxoxo phakathi kwamazwe amabili anamandla kwezomnotho ayehluleka. Ngemuva kwalokho, uMongameli uTrump wathatha ezinkundleni zokuxhumana ezosabisa iChina ngokunwetshwa kwentela, ukuze afake zonke izinto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle kwamaShayina e-USA kanye nokwenyusa amanani afinyelela ku-25%, ku-$200b yezinto ezithengwayo. Ukusabela kwemakethe kwaba sezingeni eliphansi ngokushesha njengoba umuzwa wokuba sengozini usuthathelana; izinkomba eziningi zase-USA zilahlekelwe cishe ngo-7% kusukela onyakeni wazo wezi-2019 kuze kube manje. Kuphinde kwaba nokujaha ukutshala nokuqagela ngempahla ephephile.
Ngasekupheleni kwesonto lokuhweba eliphela ngoLwesihlanu zingama-17 kuNhlaba, izimakethe eziningi zezabelo zibuyile, njengoba kwavela izindaba zokuthi iChina ne-USA bazohlangana emhlanganweni we-G20 ngoJuni, kanti uTrump wathatha kuTwitter ephakamisa ukuthi kungenzeka ukwehliswa/ukuyekethisa. . Ngokunokwenzeka, kwase kuqalile ukukhanya ekuphathweni ukuthi amanani entengo yokungenisa ngaphandle angaholela ekwenyukeni okukhulu kwamanani kubathengi base-USA.
Uchungechunge olulandelayo lwamashadi, ezimisweni zesikhathi sehora elilodwa, lubonisa ukukhuphuka nokwehla kwezibambiso ezimbalwa, njengoba ithemba likhula kanye nengozi ezimakethe eziphethwe yimizwa ngoLwesine 17 May 2019. Ubudlelwano phakathi: izinkomba zemakethe, izimpahla ezithile kanye namapheya ezinhlobo zemali ahlukahlukene. kuboniswe ngokucacile. Igolide (XAU/USD) liyawa, uwoyela we-WTI uyakhuphuka, i-US 30 (DJIA) iyakhuphuka futhi yenza idola laseMelika ngobubanzi, uma kuqhathaniswa neningi lontanga yalo. Ngokuningiliziwe; igolide kanye ne-yen ngokuvamile kwehla ngesikhathi sokubeka engcupheni ngezikhathi lapho izindawo eziphephile zithengiswa ziphelile, esikhundleni sokutshalwa kwezimali okuyingozi. Uwoyela uvame ukukhuphuka, njengoba ubungozi besimo sengqondo buhlotshaniswa ngokuqondile nomsebenzi wezomnotho owandisiwe futhi ngenxa yalokho, ukwanda kwesidingo samandla emhlabeni jikelele. Iphethini iyahlehliswa lapho umuzwa wokungavikeleki ubusa; izindawo eziphephile ezifana ne-yen negolide zingakhuphuka, njengoba izinkomba ze-equity zithengiswa, njengoba kwenza uwoyela.
Ngokuphathelene nokuhweba ubungozi bengozi kusenzakalo, ifomula (ngokombono) ilula futhi iqondile. Nakuba izixwayiso ezijwayelekile ziyasebenza; akukho lutho oluqinisekile lapho ukuqagela kuhilelekile. Njengoba sibona emashadini kanye namazwana agqanyisiwe; i-DJIA rose, yen yawa, igolide lawa futhi amafutha e-WTI aphakama. Isibonelo sencwadi yombhalo sengozi ekuziphatheni kwemakethe sasisetshenziswa, njengoba abatshalizimali bephuma ezindaweni eziphephile bangena ezimpahleni eziyingozi, kuyilapho umsebenzi wokuhweba kanye nokuntengantenga nakho kwanda.
« IGDP yaseJapan, ukwehla kwamandla emali e-UK, i-GDP yaseJalimane kanye ne-European Markit PMIs kulawula ikhalenda lezomnotho phakathi nesonto. Idola lase-Aussie liyakhuphuka njengoba ukhetho lukazwelonke lunomphumela oshaqisayo, liyashelela njengoba ukwesaba kweBrexit kugqama. »