Meyi 28 • Ukuthengiswa Kwama-Forex Izihloko, Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-3105 • Amazwana Off kokuthi Ungaziyeka kanjani ukuvala ukuhweba kwakho kwe-FX okuwina kusenesikhathi, noma sekwephuze kakhulu?
Ungaphendula umbuzo esihlokweni se-athikili kalula ngegama elilodwa lokuphendula; "Automate". Ngezindlela eziningi kuyisixazululo sezinkinga eziningi zokuhweba, ngabe ukulawula imizwa kuhilelekile. Kodwa-ke, abathengisi bezinsuku eziningi kanye nama-scalpers abakwazi noma ngeke bazenzele, bahweba ngesandla njengoba bekhetha umqondo ophelele wokulawula ukuhweba okunikezayo.
Kunodaba olukhohlisayo lwesayensi yengqondo ehilelekile endabeni yokuvala ngaphambi kwesikhathi kakhulu noma sekwephuzile, ngokusekelwe ebufakazini obungokwengqondo bokuthi abahwebi bahlangabezana nemizwa yokulimala ngokulahlekelwa kwabo, ngaphezu kokuba bezwa imizwa yokwaneliseka ngezinzuzo zabo; ukulahlekelwa ngokusobala kubhaliswa kakhulu ngokwezinga lomzwelo kunokuwina, ngokusho kwezifundo ezimbalwa. Abahwebi nabo bavame ukwethuka lapho bebona inzuzo ebhalisiwe ngaphambilini iqala ukuwohloka ngokuzumayo, njengenkulumo ethi; “ungalinge uvumele uhwebo oluwinayo luphenduke isihluleki”, iqala ukubahlupha.
Ukuhaha nakho kuyisici maqondana nokuvala ukuhweba okuwina kusenesikhathi noma sekwephuzile; ufuna ukukhulisa inzuzo ekuhwebeni ngakunye futhi usebenzise umfutho wokuhamba, kuze kube yilapho umfutho uphenduka. Ngokuphikisa ngokunembile nangokungenangqondo, cishe awunayo le nkinga ngezitobhi zakho; uzobeka isitobhi sakho endaweni ethile, mhlawumbe endaweni ephakeme noma ephansi yansuku zonke (kuncike ekubeni yinde noma emfushane) futhi uma ishaywe yilokho, usuphumile, umane ubhalise ukulahlekelwa bese uqhubekela phambili.
Ngokuxakayo abadayisi abaningi bayehluleka ukuphendula inqubo ekhanda; banokulahlekelwa kokuyeka endaweni ngayinye yokuhweba, kodwa bayehluleka ukusebenzisa ama-oda omkhawulo wenzuzo. Ngakho ngendlela eyodwa bazi kahle ukuthi ukulahlekelwa kwabo kuzonqanyulwa kuphi, kodwa abazi kahle ukuthi izinzuzo zabo zingafinyelelwa kuphi. Isizathu salokhu dichotomy ukuhaha nalokho okubizwa ngokuthi FOMO; ukwesaba ukulahlekelwa. Zombili lezi zici ezingezinhle kufanele kubhekwane nazo ukuze kwakhiwe indlela yokuhweba nesu, elisebenza kahle isikhathi eside. Awuqageli ukuthi ukulahlekelwa kwakho kuyini njengoba ukulungise ngesitobhi sakho, kungani-ke uqagela ukuthi inzuzo yakho ingaba yini, kungani ungabeki umgomo ongokoqobo?
Uma ungumhwebi wosuku kufanele wazi ukuthi yini emele umnyakazo omkhulu wansuku zonke, maqondana nebanga lansuku zonke le-FX. Ungakwazi futhi ukulinganisa ububanzi ngendlela yezinkomba zobuchwepheshe, njenge-ATR, ububanzi beqiniso obumaphakathi. Ibanga lansuku zonke elingu-1% ngokuvamile libhekwa njengebanga lokuqeqeshwa elibanzi kunesilinganiso futhi uma i-FX ikhuphuka noma yehla ngo-1% noma ngaphezulu phakathi nosuku, lokho ukunyakaza okubaluleke kakhulu, lokho akwenzeki nsuku zonke.
Phakathi neningi lezinsuku zokuhweba, ipheya enkulu efana ne-EUR/USD, ayikhuphuki noma yehli ngo-1% noma ngaphezulu, ayisebenzi ngisho nangebanga lansuku zonke elibanzi kangako phakathi nezikhathi eziningi zansuku zonke futhi uyazi ukuthi izimakethe ziyahlukahluka. ngaphezu kokuthrendayo. Eqinisweni, izilinganiso eziningi ziphakamisa ukuthi izimakethe zihamba cishe ku-70% wesikhathi. Ngakho-ke, phakathi neseshini eyisikhombisa kweziyishumi, mancane amathuba okuba ubonakale, ngokusekelwe kulokho okwandulelayo kanye namathuba, ukuthi ubone umnyakazo ongu-1% noma ngaphezulu. Ngakho-ke kungani uhlale kwezohwebo, uxhume iminwe yakho, ngethemba lokuthi uzogcina inzuzo yomnyakazo ogcwele ongu-1%+?
Uma usebenzisa amaleveli ephuzu le-pivot nsuku zonke kumashadi akho (futhi uma ungenjalo ungase uthande ukucabangela ukuthi kungani kungenjalo), uzokwazi ukuthi i-FX ipheya ekhuphuka ngezinga lesithathu lokumelana, noma ewela ezingeni lesithathu ukwesekwa, akwenzeki nsuku zonke. Akuyona into eyivelakancane, kodwa kwenzeka kuphela uma kwenzeka umcimbi omkhulu wezepolitiki nomnotho wezwe, noma uma umcimbi wekhalenda lezomnotho weqa noma wehlula izibikezelo ngebanga elithile. Noma mhlawumbe uma ikomidi lenqubomgomo yezimali yebhange elikhulu, njenge-FOMC, likhuphula noma lehlisa izinga lenzalo eliyinhloko.
Ngaphandle kokuhlola yonke imiphumela ye-EOD esikhathini esiyiminyaka (umsebenzi wasekhaya owusizo kakhulu uma noma ubani ezimisele ukuwenza) asazi ukuthi zingaki izinsuku lapho i-extras ye-R3 noma i-S3 ishaywa. Impela, phakathi nenyanga kaMeyi 2019, i-EUR/USD ifinyelele kuphela kulawa mazinga izikhathi ezimbalwa phakathi nezinsuku zokuhweba eziyi-18 ezedlule, cishe u-15% wezinsuku, ngokuhambisana ngokubanzi nezibalo zokuhweba ezishiwo ngenhla. Umnyakazo ongu-1% ungase usondele ekushayeni u-R3, noma i-S3 futhi intengo izofinyelela kulawa mazinga cishe kanye kumaseshini ayisithupha. Ngakho-ke kulabo kini abacabanga ukuthi la mazinga (mhlawumbe) ayafinyelelwa noma aphulwa kanye ngesonto, uzobe uqinisile. Kuyaphawuleka futhi ukuthi ngemva kokwephula i-S3 noma i-R3, inani ngokuvamile libuyela emazingeni aphansi.
Njengoba iphethini yamaphesenti kanye namathuba manje sekuqala ukuvela, uhlangothi olunengqondo lokucabanga kobuchopho bakho kufanele lungene luthathe izintambo; ehlose ukwenza inzuzo yasebhange nsuku zonke njengomhwebi we-scalper noma wosuku, olindele ukuthi inani lephule u-R3 noma i-S3, akunangqondo njengoba intengo yephula la mazinga kuphela phakathi neseshini eyodwa kweziyisithupha, ngokusekelwe ebufakazini bakamuva. Ngakho-ke, kungenzeka ukuthi uthola isiphakamiso kanye nomlayezo ongacacile ovela emakethe, wokuthi kufanele ucabangele ukuvala ukuhweba kwakho okuwinile. Kodwa kubalulekile ukuthi uphile kulo mlayezo futhi ubeke eceleni ukuhaha kwakho nezindaba ze-FOMO. Kunamanye amaleveli ephoyinti le-pivot intengo engase yephule kaningi nsuku zonke; I-R1-R2 kanye ne-S1-S2. Uma unquma ukuvala ukuhweba kwakho phakathi kwalawa mazinga, kungamela isinqumo esingcono kunokuzama ukuqagela ukuthi intengo iphezulu noma iphansi kangakanani, nganoma yiluphi usuku olunikeziwe lokuhweba?
« Idola laseMelika lidayisa ngaphansi kwezimo ezincanyana zokuhweba, ama-euro ahwebelana ikakhulukazi ngemuva kokuthi abantu abadumile behlulekile ukuzuza kakhulu okhethweni lwaseYurophu. I-Yen ibhalisa izinzuzo kumaseshini okuqala, inkomba yedola iyakhuphuka, kuyilapho i-euro iyehla njengoba imiphumela yokhetho lwase-Europe ingena ekukhetheni izikhundla eziphambili, njengoba uSalvini wase-Italy ezibophezela ekunciphiseni intela. »
Ungaziyeka kanjani ukuvala ukuhweba kwakho kwe-FX ngaphambi kwesikhathi, noma sekwephuze kakhulu?
Meyi 28 • Ukuthengiswa Kwama-Forex Izihloko, Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-3105 • Amazwana Off kokuthi Ungaziyeka kanjani ukuvala ukuhweba kwakho kwe-FX okuwina kusenesikhathi, noma sekwephuze kakhulu?
Ungaphendula umbuzo esihlokweni se-athikili kalula ngegama elilodwa lokuphendula; "Automate". Ngezindlela eziningi kuyisixazululo sezinkinga eziningi zokuhweba, ngabe ukulawula imizwa kuhilelekile. Kodwa-ke, abathengisi bezinsuku eziningi kanye nama-scalpers abakwazi noma ngeke bazenzele, bahweba ngesandla njengoba bekhetha umqondo ophelele wokulawula ukuhweba okunikezayo.
Kunodaba olukhohlisayo lwesayensi yengqondo ehilelekile endabeni yokuvala ngaphambi kwesikhathi kakhulu noma sekwephuzile, ngokusekelwe ebufakazini obungokwengqondo bokuthi abahwebi bahlangabezana nemizwa yokulimala ngokulahlekelwa kwabo, ngaphezu kokuba bezwa imizwa yokwaneliseka ngezinzuzo zabo; ukulahlekelwa ngokusobala kubhaliswa kakhulu ngokwezinga lomzwelo kunokuwina, ngokusho kwezifundo ezimbalwa. Abahwebi nabo bavame ukwethuka lapho bebona inzuzo ebhalisiwe ngaphambilini iqala ukuwohloka ngokuzumayo, njengenkulumo ethi; “ungalinge uvumele uhwebo oluwinayo luphenduke isihluleki”, iqala ukubahlupha.
Ukuhaha nakho kuyisici maqondana nokuvala ukuhweba okuwina kusenesikhathi noma sekwephuzile; ufuna ukukhulisa inzuzo ekuhwebeni ngakunye futhi usebenzise umfutho wokuhamba, kuze kube yilapho umfutho uphenduka. Ngokuphikisa ngokunembile nangokungenangqondo, cishe awunayo le nkinga ngezitobhi zakho; uzobeka isitobhi sakho endaweni ethile, mhlawumbe endaweni ephakeme noma ephansi yansuku zonke (kuncike ekubeni yinde noma emfushane) futhi uma ishaywe yilokho, usuphumile, umane ubhalise ukulahlekelwa bese uqhubekela phambili.
Ngokuxakayo abadayisi abaningi bayehluleka ukuphendula inqubo ekhanda; banokulahlekelwa kokuyeka endaweni ngayinye yokuhweba, kodwa bayehluleka ukusebenzisa ama-oda omkhawulo wenzuzo. Ngakho ngendlela eyodwa bazi kahle ukuthi ukulahlekelwa kwabo kuzonqanyulwa kuphi, kodwa abazi kahle ukuthi izinzuzo zabo zingafinyelelwa kuphi. Isizathu salokhu dichotomy ukuhaha nalokho okubizwa ngokuthi FOMO; ukwesaba ukulahlekelwa. Zombili lezi zici ezingezinhle kufanele kubhekwane nazo ukuze kwakhiwe indlela yokuhweba nesu, elisebenza kahle isikhathi eside. Awuqageli ukuthi ukulahlekelwa kwakho kuyini njengoba ukulungise ngesitobhi sakho, kungani-ke uqagela ukuthi inzuzo yakho ingaba yini, kungani ungabeki umgomo ongokoqobo?
Uma ungumhwebi wosuku kufanele wazi ukuthi yini emele umnyakazo omkhulu wansuku zonke, maqondana nebanga lansuku zonke le-FX. Ungakwazi futhi ukulinganisa ububanzi ngendlela yezinkomba zobuchwepheshe, njenge-ATR, ububanzi beqiniso obumaphakathi. Ibanga lansuku zonke elingu-1% ngokuvamile libhekwa njengebanga lokuqeqeshwa elibanzi kunesilinganiso futhi uma i-FX ikhuphuka noma yehla ngo-1% noma ngaphezulu phakathi nosuku, lokho ukunyakaza okubaluleke kakhulu, lokho akwenzeki nsuku zonke.
Phakathi neningi lezinsuku zokuhweba, ipheya enkulu efana ne-EUR/USD, ayikhuphuki noma yehli ngo-1% noma ngaphezulu, ayisebenzi ngisho nangebanga lansuku zonke elibanzi kangako phakathi nezikhathi eziningi zansuku zonke futhi uyazi ukuthi izimakethe ziyahlukahluka. ngaphezu kokuthrendayo. Eqinisweni, izilinganiso eziningi ziphakamisa ukuthi izimakethe zihamba cishe ku-70% wesikhathi. Ngakho-ke, phakathi neseshini eyisikhombisa kweziyishumi, mancane amathuba okuba ubonakale, ngokusekelwe kulokho okwandulelayo kanye namathuba, ukuthi ubone umnyakazo ongu-1% noma ngaphezulu. Ngakho-ke kungani uhlale kwezohwebo, uxhume iminwe yakho, ngethemba lokuthi uzogcina inzuzo yomnyakazo ogcwele ongu-1%+?
Uma usebenzisa amaleveli ephuzu le-pivot nsuku zonke kumashadi akho (futhi uma ungenjalo ungase uthande ukucabangela ukuthi kungani kungenjalo), uzokwazi ukuthi i-FX ipheya ekhuphuka ngezinga lesithathu lokumelana, noma ewela ezingeni lesithathu ukwesekwa, akwenzeki nsuku zonke. Akuyona into eyivelakancane, kodwa kwenzeka kuphela uma kwenzeka umcimbi omkhulu wezepolitiki nomnotho wezwe, noma uma umcimbi wekhalenda lezomnotho weqa noma wehlula izibikezelo ngebanga elithile. Noma mhlawumbe uma ikomidi lenqubomgomo yezimali yebhange elikhulu, njenge-FOMC, likhuphula noma lehlisa izinga lenzalo eliyinhloko.
Ngaphandle kokuhlola yonke imiphumela ye-EOD esikhathini esiyiminyaka (umsebenzi wasekhaya owusizo kakhulu uma noma ubani ezimisele ukuwenza) asazi ukuthi zingaki izinsuku lapho i-extras ye-R3 noma i-S3 ishaywa. Impela, phakathi nenyanga kaMeyi 2019, i-EUR/USD ifinyelele kuphela kulawa mazinga izikhathi ezimbalwa phakathi nezinsuku zokuhweba eziyi-18 ezedlule, cishe u-15% wezinsuku, ngokuhambisana ngokubanzi nezibalo zokuhweba ezishiwo ngenhla. Umnyakazo ongu-1% ungase usondele ekushayeni u-R3, noma i-S3 futhi intengo izofinyelela kulawa mazinga cishe kanye kumaseshini ayisithupha. Ngakho-ke kulabo kini abacabanga ukuthi la mazinga (mhlawumbe) ayafinyelelwa noma aphulwa kanye ngesonto, uzobe uqinisile. Kuyaphawuleka futhi ukuthi ngemva kokwephula i-S3 noma i-R3, inani ngokuvamile libuyela emazingeni aphansi.
Njengoba iphethini yamaphesenti kanye namathuba manje sekuqala ukuvela, uhlangothi olunengqondo lokucabanga kobuchopho bakho kufanele lungene luthathe izintambo; ehlose ukwenza inzuzo yasebhange nsuku zonke njengomhwebi we-scalper noma wosuku, olindele ukuthi inani lephule u-R3 noma i-S3, akunangqondo njengoba intengo yephula la mazinga kuphela phakathi neseshini eyodwa kweziyisithupha, ngokusekelwe ebufakazini bakamuva. Ngakho-ke, kungenzeka ukuthi uthola isiphakamiso kanye nomlayezo ongacacile ovela emakethe, wokuthi kufanele ucabangele ukuvala ukuhweba kwakho okuwinile. Kodwa kubalulekile ukuthi uphile kulo mlayezo futhi ubeke eceleni ukuhaha kwakho nezindaba ze-FOMO. Kunamanye amaleveli ephoyinti le-pivot intengo engase yephule kaningi nsuku zonke; I-R1-R2 kanye ne-S1-S2. Uma unquma ukuvala ukuhweba kwakho phakathi kwalawa mazinga, kungamela isinqumo esingcono kunokuzama ukuqagela ukuthi intengo iphezulu noma iphansi kangakanani, nganoma yiluphi usuku olunikeziwe lokuhweba?
« Idola laseMelika lidayisa ngaphansi kwezimo ezincanyana zokuhweba, ama-euro ahwebelana ikakhulukazi ngemuva kokuthi abantu abadumile behlulekile ukuzuza kakhulu okhethweni lwaseYurophu. I-Yen ibhalisa izinzuzo kumaseshini okuqala, inkomba yedola iyakhuphuka, kuyilapho i-euro iyehla njengoba imiphumela yokhetho lwase-Europe ingena ekukhetheni izikhundla eziphambili, njengoba uSalvini wase-Italy ezibophezela ekunciphiseni intela. »