UMar 22 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-4014 • Amazwana Off ku-Get Out Of The Way IGrisi, Ukujika Kwayo eSpain Ku-The Spotlight
Usomnotho weCitigroup uWillem Buiter, uxwayise ngokuthi iSpain ingase iphoqeleke ukulandela umkhondo wamaGreki njengoba ikhutshazwa wumthwalo wezikweletu.
“ISpain iyizwe elibalulekile engikhathazeke kakhulu ngalo,” UBuiter uthe embikweni owenziwe eBloomberg. "Isuselwe ohlangothini olungalungile lwe-spectrum futhi manje isengozini enkulu yokuhlelwa kabusha kobukhosi kunangaphambili." Ngaso leso sikhathi, uxwayise ngokuthi iPortugal nayo isendaweni "phezulu kakhulu" ingozi yokuhlelwa kabusha kwezikweletu, kuyilapho i-Ireland idinga "ukwesekwa okwengeziwe komkhakha osemthethweni".
Abahlaziyi bakhathazekile ngokuthi amazwe anjengeSpain nePortugal azobhekana nengcindezi engenakuxazululeka njengoba umnotho wawo uwela ekuwohlokeni okujulile, okuqhubekisela phambili ukushoda kwesabelomali kwawo nokwenza izikweletu zawo ezinzima zibe nzima nakakhulu. Ezinsukwini ezimbalwa ezedlule, ongqongqoshe bezezimali be-eurozone bavumile ukunciphisa umgomo wokushoda kwesabelomali saseSpain sibe ngamaphesenti angama-5.3 e-GDP kulo nyaka, uma kuqhathaniswa nomgomo wangaphambilini wamaphesenti angu-4.4.
Izimakethe zamazwe ngamazwe ziye zahlangana kakhulu ezinyangeni ezisanda kwedlula, ngemuva kokuthi i-European Central Bank ithuthele ekudambiseni ukungezwani kwezezimali esifundeni ngokuhlinzeka ngemali engaphezu kuka-€ 1 trillion. Lokhu, uBuiter waphawula, kumasha aqonde:
umuzwa ojwayelekile wokusondela euphoria njengamanje oholela labo abacwila ekusweleni imali bakholwe ukuthi zonke izinkinga seziphelile
Uphinde waxwayisa ngokuthi kukhona okubi ezenzweni ze-ECB, eveza ukuthi “imizamo yokuvuselela kabusha, endabeni yamabhange, kanye nokwehliswa kwezimali kohulumeni kuvame ukwehla” lapho bengasabhekani nobunzima obukhulu ekuxhaseni ngemali. I-ECB manje idinga ukuqapha nokulawula lokho osekudaliwe.
Ukukhathazeka ngebheyili yakamuva yaseGreece kuqiniswe yimemo esemthethweni eputshuziwe ekhomba ukuthi i-Athens kuzodingeka idlule ezimakethe zezabasebenzi ezinzima kanye nezinguquko zesakhiwo ukuze uhlelo lwayo lwakamuva luphumelele. Abaningi bakholelwa ukuthi iGreece ngeke iphumelele, uma abantu bayo sebeshaywe kanzima njengabo, kuzodlula izizukulwane ngaphambi kokuba izwe libone ukukhula nokukhiqiza. Iningi labatshalizimali kanye nabahlaziyi bezimakethe bavumile ukuthi ukukhululwa kunikeza i-EU isikhathi kuphela, okungase kuvumele inkinga ye-EU ukuthi iphele ngaphambi kokuthi iGreece iphinde iqale kabusha.
I-'troika' - abamele i-ECB, i-European Union kanye ne-International Monetary Fund abangamele ukukhululwa kwakamuva kwe-Greece baxwayise ngokuthi imizamo yokunciphisa izikweletu zaseGreece zibe emazingeni aqhubekayo ibucayi kakhulu ekubambezelekeni kokuqaliswa kwezinguquko zesakhiwo. Ngokwalo mbhalo, ukubambezeleka kuzobeka engcupheni ukusimama komnotho wezwe, okuzoholela ekukhuphukeni kwamazinga okuntuleka kwemisebenzi kanye nokuwohloka okukhulu komnotho. Ukhetho luhlelelwe inyanga ezayo futhi qiniseka ukuthi uhulumeni omusha oboshelwe ezindleleni zokunciphisa izindleko uzoshesha ukuzisebenzisa.
Kwakuyizinyanga ezimbili kuphela ezedlule lapho iGreece yathola khona inkokhelo yama-euro ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-7.5 ngaphansi kwephakethe layo lesibili lebheyili, okwavumela izwe ukuba ligweme ukuqothuka. Izimakethe ziye zaphefumula kuleli sonto lapho umnqamulajuqu wangoMashi 20 udlula ngaphandle kokuzenzakalelayo kweGreece. Abenzi bezinto ezingenzeka babezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezedlule benza incwadi yokuthi iGreece izozenzakalela.
i-buiterisikweletue-spain
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Phuma Endleleni IGrisi, Ukujikela Kwayo eSpain Ngokusobala
UMar 22 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-4014 • Amazwana Off ku-Get Out Of The Way IGrisi, Ukujika Kwayo eSpain Ku-The Spotlight
Usomnotho weCitigroup uWillem Buiter, uxwayise ngokuthi iSpain ingase iphoqeleke ukulandela umkhondo wamaGreki njengoba ikhutshazwa wumthwalo wezikweletu.
“ISpain iyizwe elibalulekile engikhathazeke kakhulu ngalo,” UBuiter uthe embikweni owenziwe eBloomberg. "Isuselwe ohlangothini olungalungile lwe-spectrum futhi manje isengozini enkulu yokuhlelwa kabusha kobukhosi kunangaphambili." Ngaso leso sikhathi, uxwayise ngokuthi iPortugal nayo isendaweni "phezulu kakhulu" ingozi yokuhlelwa kabusha kwezikweletu, kuyilapho i-Ireland idinga "ukwesekwa okwengeziwe komkhakha osemthethweni".
Abahlaziyi bakhathazekile ngokuthi amazwe anjengeSpain nePortugal azobhekana nengcindezi engenakuxazululeka njengoba umnotho wawo uwela ekuwohlokeni okujulile, okuqhubekisela phambili ukushoda kwesabelomali kwawo nokwenza izikweletu zawo ezinzima zibe nzima nakakhulu. Ezinsukwini ezimbalwa ezedlule, ongqongqoshe bezezimali be-eurozone bavumile ukunciphisa umgomo wokushoda kwesabelomali saseSpain sibe ngamaphesenti angama-5.3 e-GDP kulo nyaka, uma kuqhathaniswa nomgomo wangaphambilini wamaphesenti angu-4.4.
Izimakethe zamazwe ngamazwe ziye zahlangana kakhulu ezinyangeni ezisanda kwedlula, ngemuva kokuthi i-European Central Bank ithuthele ekudambiseni ukungezwani kwezezimali esifundeni ngokuhlinzeka ngemali engaphezu kuka-€ 1 trillion. Lokhu, uBuiter waphawula, kumasha aqonde:
umuzwa ojwayelekile wokusondela euphoria njengamanje oholela labo abacwila ekusweleni imali bakholwe ukuthi zonke izinkinga seziphelile
Uphinde waxwayisa ngokuthi kukhona okubi ezenzweni ze-ECB, eveza ukuthi “imizamo yokuvuselela kabusha, endabeni yamabhange, kanye nokwehliswa kwezimali kohulumeni kuvame ukwehla” lapho bengasabhekani nobunzima obukhulu ekuxhaseni ngemali. I-ECB manje idinga ukuqapha nokulawula lokho osekudaliwe.
Ukukhathazeka ngebheyili yakamuva yaseGreece kuqiniswe yimemo esemthethweni eputshuziwe ekhomba ukuthi i-Athens kuzodingeka idlule ezimakethe zezabasebenzi ezinzima kanye nezinguquko zesakhiwo ukuze uhlelo lwayo lwakamuva luphumelele. Abaningi bakholelwa ukuthi iGreece ngeke iphumelele, uma abantu bayo sebeshaywe kanzima njengabo, kuzodlula izizukulwane ngaphambi kokuba izwe libone ukukhula nokukhiqiza. Iningi labatshalizimali kanye nabahlaziyi bezimakethe bavumile ukuthi ukukhululwa kunikeza i-EU isikhathi kuphela, okungase kuvumele inkinga ye-EU ukuthi iphele ngaphambi kokuthi iGreece iphinde iqale kabusha.
I-'troika' - abamele i-ECB, i-European Union kanye ne-International Monetary Fund abangamele ukukhululwa kwakamuva kwe-Greece baxwayise ngokuthi imizamo yokunciphisa izikweletu zaseGreece zibe emazingeni aqhubekayo ibucayi kakhulu ekubambezelekeni kokuqaliswa kwezinguquko zesakhiwo. Ngokwalo mbhalo, ukubambezeleka kuzobeka engcupheni ukusimama komnotho wezwe, okuzoholela ekukhuphukeni kwamazinga okuntuleka kwemisebenzi kanye nokuwohloka okukhulu komnotho. Ukhetho luhlelelwe inyanga ezayo futhi qiniseka ukuthi uhulumeni omusha oboshelwe ezindleleni zokunciphisa izindleko uzoshesha ukuzisebenzisa.
Kwakuyizinyanga ezimbili kuphela ezedlule lapho iGreece yathola khona inkokhelo yama-euro ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-7.5 ngaphansi kwephakethe layo lesibili lebheyili, okwavumela izwe ukuba ligweme ukuqothuka. Izimakethe ziye zaphefumula kuleli sonto lapho umnqamulajuqu wangoMashi 20 udlula ngaphandle kokuzenzakalelayo kweGreece. Abenzi bezinto ezingenzeka babezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezedlule benza incwadi yokuthi iGreece izozenzakalela.
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