I-WEEKLY MARKET SNAPSHOT 13 / 11-17 / 11 | Izibalo ze-GDP zeJalimane, i-EZ neJapan, zihlanganiswe nama-CPI akhishwa yi-EZ, Canada kanye ne-USA, zikhomba isonto elizayo njengelibaluleke kakhulu
Ukugxila okukhulu kuleli sonto elizayo kubandakanya ama-GDP kanye nama-CPI eminotho eminingana ehamba phambili ezoshicilelwa, kanti ukungasebenzi, ukuqashwa kanye nedatha yokunyuka kwamaholo minyaka yonke nayo izobaluleka.
NgoLwesibili kubonakala kuwusuku olusemqoka lwabadayisi beFX ukuhlala begxile futhi beqaphile kakhulu. Ukufundwa kweGDP, Germany kanye ne-Eurozone ebanzi kuzodalulwa ngoLwesibili, usuku olugcwele imicimbi yekhalenda yezomnotho enomthelela omkhulu. I-CPI yakamuva ye-Eurozone nayo izobhekwa ngeso elibukhali, kanti ngoLwesibili kusihlwa kuzothunyelwa isibalo seGDP sakamuva saseJapan, kulindeleke ukuthi kuvezwe ukwehla kokukhula, i-yen ingase ihlolwe uma isibalo siphuthelwa, noma kungenjalo sishaye isibikezelo ngebanga elithile.
UMsombuluko iqala isonto ngenkomba yamanani entengo ephelele yaseJalimane, imethrikhi ebalulekile enikezwe ukuthi iJalimane isanda kushicilela okukhuthazayo kwezohwebo nezimali ezisele zamanje ze-akhawunti, kuhlangene nokukhula okukhulayo kokuthekelisa. Ukudilizwa kwempahla ebanjiswayo kanye nedatha ebizwa ngokuthi "yimali ebolekwayo yempahla ebanjiswayo" izoshicilelwa isuka e-USA futhi yize ikleliswa njengegalelo elincane, lezi zibalo zivame ukubhekwa ngezimpawu zokuthi noma yikuphi ukubuthakathaka kwesakhiwo emnothweni obangelwa yisikweletu kanye namandla okukhokha.
Endabeni yesikweletu, idatha yekhadi lesikweletu lase-Australia ishicilelwa, ngaphambi kokuthi siqhubekele kuma-oda wamathuluzi omshini waseJapan. Njengoba umnotho waseJapan usuqala ukukhombisa izimpawu zokuthi uhlelo lwe-Abenomics selusebenzile, ngenkathi inkomba enkulu yaseJapan i-Nikkei isanda kufinyelela imininingwane yeminyaka engu-25 ephezulu, emaphakathi naphezulu efana nale izocutshungulwa ngokucophelela, ngokususelwa ebukhulwini bokukhiqiza baseJapan.
Kusihlwa kusihlwa uMbusi we-BOJ uMnu Kuroda uzokwethula inkulumo eZurich, lapho kuzodalulwa khona imininingwane ngosuku lwamasonto onke lokubonwa kwamabhange aseSwitzerland. Imicimbi yekhalenda yezomnotho yosuku iphetha ngesitatimende sakamuva sesabelomali sase-USA esizoshicilelwa, kulindeleke ukuthi sihle sibe ngu- $ 45.0b ngo-Okthoba, sisuke ku- $ 8b ngoSepthemba.
NgoLwesibili iqala ngokugxila eChina, okuncishiswe kokungeniswa / ukuthunyelwa kwempahla muva nje kuphakamise ishiya, njengoba kwenza izibalo zayo zokwehla kwamandla emali, kukhuphuka kokubili i-CPI namanani entengo Ukuthengiswa nokuthengiswa kwezibalo izibalo ze-YTD kulindeleke ukuthi zigcine ukukhula kwazo eChina, izibalo zeYoY zehla kancane. Njengoba ukugxila kuphendukela ezimakethe zaseYurophu, isibalo seGDP YoY yaseJalimane seQ3 sizoshicilelwa, njengamanje esisebenza ku-2.1%, okulindelwe kungukuthuthuka okuncane, ngokuhambisana nezibalo zamuva zedatha ehehayo.
I-CPI yaseGerman kulindeleke ukuthi ihlale ingashintshiwe ku-1.6%. I-YoY GDP yase-Italy kulindeleke ukuthi ihlale izinzile ekukhuleni kwe-1.5%, ngenkathi i-inflation yakamuva yase-UK (i-CPI) izobhekwa ngokucophelela, ukuthola ukuthi ngabe i-3% yamanje izophulwa yini, ngaphambi kokunyuka kwamazinga we-BoE kwakamuva kunomthelela. Ukufundwa kwe-RPI ne-PPI nakho kuyashicilelwa; ngokufakwa kwamandla emali okusebenza njengamanje okusebenza ku-8.4% ukuncishiswa kungaphakamisa, emnothweni ophethwe yizinsizakalo nokungenisa abathengi ezweni, ukuthi ukwehla kwamandla emali kungenzeka kube kukhuphukile kulo mjikelezo. Idatha yokwenyuka kwamanani entengo ezindlini yase-UK iveziwe, njengamanje iku-5%, lesi sibalo siyaphikisana nezinye izindawo zase-UK ezibonisa ukukhinyabezeka ekukhuleni. Izibalo zokukhula kwezimboni ze-Eurozone ziyashicilelwa, kanjalo nocwaningo lweZew kwezomnotho, kuzo zombili iJalimane ne-Eurozone ebanzi.
Isibalo sakamuva sokukhula kwe-Eurozone GDP sidaluliwe, kulindeleke ukuthi sihlale ku-2.5% YoY. Abaphathi bamaBhange amakhulu abahola phambili kanye nomphathi weFed uJanet Yellen bamenyiwe ukuthi babambe imihlangano yomphakathi esigungwini se-ECB naseFrankfurt ngoLwesibili, ithuba lokulinganisa ubumbano lwenqubomgomo yezimali, phakathi kwamandla amaningi ahamba phambili kwezomnotho. Kukhona isihlenga semininingwane ye-USA PPI eshicilelwe, ngaphambi kokuba umcimbi wokugcina wosuku omkhulu uvele; Isibalo sokukhula seGDP saminyaka yonke saseJapan, okulindeleke ukuthi sinciphe siye ku-1.4% minyaka yonke ku-Q3, sisuka ku-2.5% ku-Q2.
NgoLwesithathu Izindaba zekhalenda lezomnotho ekuseni ziqala ngemininingwane ye-inflation yamaholo e-UK, njengamanje eku-2.2%, isalele emuva ngemuva kwamandla emali e-CPI. Imininingwane yeholo nayo iyashicilelwa e-Australia. Kamuva ekuseni kushicilelwa amamethrikhi wokungasebenzi kanye nokuqashwa e-UK, njengamanje ku-4.3% isibalo sabantu abangasebenzi kulindeleke ukuthi sihlale singashintshiwe. Njengoba ukunakwa kushintshela eNew York evulekile, ukufundwa kwakamuva kwe-USA CPI kuzovezwa; isibikezelo ngesibalo se-MoM sango-Okthoba ukuthi sehle saya ku-0.1%, okungaba nomthelela kwisibalo se-YoY, njengamanje esisebenza ku-2.2%. Kulethwa uchungechunge lwezibalo ezidayisa i-USA, ukuthengisa okuthuthukile okuhamba phambili kube okuvelele kakhulu, okulindeleke ukuthi kubonakale kungakhuli ngokuphelele ngo-Okthoba.
NgoLwesine ukushicilelwa kwedatha yezomnotho ebalulekile, kuqala nge-Australia kanye ne-inflation (CPI) yokulindela imethrikhi, isibikezelo sokukhombisa ushintsho oluncane kusuka kunani laso lamanje le-4.3%, ushintsho lokuqashwa kwabantu base-Australia kanye nezinombolo zokungasebenzi nazo zizolethwa. Njengoba ukunakwa kuphendukela eYurophu izibalo zakamuva zokuthengisa zase-UK zizovezwa, njengamanje ku-1.6% YoY, lesi sibalo singase sibuyele emuva, ngokuya ngezinkomba ezimbalwa zakamuva zosizi ezivela ezinhlanganweni zokuhweba, njenge-BRC ne-CBI. Isibalo se-Eurozone CPI (ukwehla kwamandla emali) kulindeleke ukuthi sihlale singashintshiwe, sibe ngu-1.5% njalo ngonyaka.
Njengoba iNew York ivulela ibhizinisi, kushicilelwa izinombolo zokungasebenzi kwamasonto onke nezinombolo zezimangalo eziqhubekayo zokungasebenzi, njengoba kuzoba idatha yakamuva yokwenyuka kwamanani entengo nokuthekelisa. Ukukhiqizwa kwezimboni e-USA kulindeleke ukuthi kukhuphuke ngo-0.5% ngo-Okthoba, kanti imininingwane yokukhiqiza nayo izovezwa. Kusihlwa i-PMI yakamuva yaseNew Zealand yokukhiqiza izoshicilelwa, njengamanje ngo-57.5, isibalo sango-Okthoba akulindeleke ukuthi siphambuke kakhulu.
Friday kuqala ngesihlenga semininingwane ephansi yaseJapan, ngemuva kwalokho ukugxila kuphendukela kuMbusi we-ECB uMario Draghi ekhuluma eFrankfurt. Idatha yokukhishwa kokwakhiwa kanye nebhalansi ye-akhawunti yamanje ye-Eurozone, nayo iyadalulwa ngesikhathi sokuhweba saseLondon / European. Njengoba ukunakwa kuphendukela ekuvulweni kwe-USA neNew York, sithola amamethrikhi wakamuva ekuqalisweni kwezindlu nezimvume zokwakha ezivela e-USA, ezingasetshenziswa ngokuhlukahluka kwesizini, yize izibalo kulindeleke ukuthi ziveze ukukhula okuqinile kwezindlu eziqala ngo-5.2% Okthoba (MoM). Imininingwane yakamuva ye-inflation yaseCanada iveziwe, isibikezelo semethrikhi esemqoka (CPI) ukuhlala ingashintshi ku-1.6%.
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