UFebhu 19 • Ukuthengiswa Kwama-Forex Izihloko, Izindaba Zokuhweba Ezishisayo, Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-2669 • Amazwana Off ku-Focus kuzophendukela kumizuzu yokubeka isilinganiso se-FOMC ngoLwesithathu kusihlwa, ukuthola ubufakazi bokuthi inqubomgomo yemali ekhulayo iyathuthuka
Ngo-19: 00 ebusuku isikhathi sase-UK, ngoLwesithathu mhlaka-20 kuNhlolanja, i-FOMC (iFederal Open Market Committee), izoshicilela imizuzu kusuka emhlanganweni wayo kaJanuwari, wezinsuku ezimbili. Umvuthwandaba wazo, lapho i-FOMC imemezele khona ukuthi izinga lenzalo emqoka emnothweni wase-USA, lizohlala lingashintshiwe libe ngu-2.5%, ngemuva kokukhuphuka kathathu kuka-0.25% lilinye, lagqugquzelwa ngo-2018.
Ngesikhathi kunesithangami nabezindaba ngemuva nje kwesimemezelo se-FOMC, usihlalo weFed, uJerome Powell, ophinde abe ngumkhulumeli we-FOMC, ukhiphe lokho okwakuthathwa njengesitatimende senqubomgomo yezimali. Lapho aphakamise khona ukuthi i-FOMC / Fed ingahle inganamatheli kunqubomgomo enobudlova ye-hawkish, eyayichazwe futhi yanamathelwa, phakathi ne-2018.
Ngokwemvelo, abatshalizimali, abahlaziyi bezimakethe kanye nabadayisi beFX bazoshesha ngokushesha imizuzu ngoLwesithathu kusihlwa, ngomzamo wokuthola isikhundla sekomidi lilonke; i-dovish noma i-hawkish? Futhi ukuthola ukuthi ngabe isinqumo sokugcina inani lokhiye ku-2.5%, bekuyisinqumo esinqunyiwe, noma uma kukhona noma yimaphi amazwi aphikisayo, ekuvumelaneni okuphelele.
Engqungqutheleni yakhe nabezindaba ngoJanuwari, uMnu uPowell wabhekisa kulokhu: ukwehla kwamandla emali (ngaphansi kwenhloso yeFed engu-2%), ukukhula kweGDP komnotho wase-USA kwehla, kanye nokungezwani okwadalwa nguMongameli Trump, maqondana nokuhwebelana kweChina ne-USA izimpi kanye ne-tit yesicelo se-tat tariff. Isimo esidale ukungaqiniseki nokulungiswa okubalulekile ezimakethe zokulingana zase-USA, ngoDisemba 2018, lapho ukungezwani neChina kufinyelele phezulu kakhulu.
Ukukhula kwe-GDP komnotho wase-USA njengamanje kuku-3% YoY naku-3.4% QoQ okwenziwe ngonyaka. Kodwa-ke, abahlaziyi abaningi abacashunwe emaphephandabeni amakhulu ezezimali, babikezela ukuthi i-GDP YoY ingahle yehle ifike ku-2.6% lapho kutholakala uchungechunge lwemininingwane olulandelayo. Idatha ebambezelekile ngenxa yokuvalwa kukahulumeni ngoJanuwari. Ukwehla kwamandla emali njengamanje kuku-1.6%, ngakho-ke, ngeke kusimangaze uma imizuzu yomhlangano we-FOMC ishaya into ebhalwe ngokucophelela, ekhombisa ukuthi ikomidi alizange liphuthume ukuphindaphinda ukukhuphuka kwamazinga abo ohlelo, okwakhuthazwa ngonyaka owedlule.
Abadayisi beFX kufanele badayise lo mcimbi wekhalenda onomthelela omkhulu, njengoba ngokomlando isitatimende sinamandla okuhambisa izimakethe ezilinganisweni zase-USA kanye nenani le-USD, uma kuqhathaniswa nontanga yalo. Kumele kuqashelwe futhi ukuthi isitatimende siza ngesikhathi sevolumu yokuhweba ye-FX, ngemuva kokuthi iseshini yaseLondon ivaliwe, futhi induku yokuhweba kweFX idluliselwa ezimakethe zase-USA. Ngakho-ke, ukwenziwa kwemali kungaba yinkinga, ngababili be-USD ababhekene nama-spikes, noma ukubhebhana ebangeni, ngesikhathi nangemva kokukhishwa.
« I-Yen iwa njengoba ibhange likaJusi waseJapan uKuroda lisikisela ukwenziwa lula kwezinto endleleni yalo, ama-euro ashelela njengoba izibikezelo zibikezelwa ukuthi zembula ukukhula okuhamba kancane ISterling iphakama ethembeni lokuxoxisana ngeBrexit, idola laseMelika liwa njengoba izingxoxo zokuhweba zaseChina zikhombisa inqubekela phambili encane »
Ukugxila kuzophendukela kumaminithi wokubeka amazinga we-FOMC ngoLwesithathu kusihlwa, ukuthola ubufakazi bokuthi inqubomgomo yemali ekhulayo iyathuthuka
UFebhu 19 • Ukuthengiswa Kwama-Forex Izihloko, Izindaba Zokuhweba Ezishisayo, Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-2669 • Amazwana Off ku-Focus kuzophendukela kumizuzu yokubeka isilinganiso se-FOMC ngoLwesithathu kusihlwa, ukuthola ubufakazi bokuthi inqubomgomo yemali ekhulayo iyathuthuka
Ngo-19: 00 ebusuku isikhathi sase-UK, ngoLwesithathu mhlaka-20 kuNhlolanja, i-FOMC (iFederal Open Market Committee), izoshicilela imizuzu kusuka emhlanganweni wayo kaJanuwari, wezinsuku ezimbili. Umvuthwandaba wazo, lapho i-FOMC imemezele khona ukuthi izinga lenzalo emqoka emnothweni wase-USA, lizohlala lingashintshiwe libe ngu-2.5%, ngemuva kokukhuphuka kathathu kuka-0.25% lilinye, lagqugquzelwa ngo-2018.
Ngesikhathi kunesithangami nabezindaba ngemuva nje kwesimemezelo se-FOMC, usihlalo weFed, uJerome Powell, ophinde abe ngumkhulumeli we-FOMC, ukhiphe lokho okwakuthathwa njengesitatimende senqubomgomo yezimali. Lapho aphakamise khona ukuthi i-FOMC / Fed ingahle inganamatheli kunqubomgomo enobudlova ye-hawkish, eyayichazwe futhi yanamathelwa, phakathi ne-2018.
Ngokwemvelo, abatshalizimali, abahlaziyi bezimakethe kanye nabadayisi beFX bazoshesha ngokushesha imizuzu ngoLwesithathu kusihlwa, ngomzamo wokuthola isikhundla sekomidi lilonke; i-dovish noma i-hawkish? Futhi ukuthola ukuthi ngabe isinqumo sokugcina inani lokhiye ku-2.5%, bekuyisinqumo esinqunyiwe, noma uma kukhona noma yimaphi amazwi aphikisayo, ekuvumelaneni okuphelele.
Engqungqutheleni yakhe nabezindaba ngoJanuwari, uMnu uPowell wabhekisa kulokhu: ukwehla kwamandla emali (ngaphansi kwenhloso yeFed engu-2%), ukukhula kweGDP komnotho wase-USA kwehla, kanye nokungezwani okwadalwa nguMongameli Trump, maqondana nokuhwebelana kweChina ne-USA izimpi kanye ne-tit yesicelo se-tat tariff. Isimo esidale ukungaqiniseki nokulungiswa okubalulekile ezimakethe zokulingana zase-USA, ngoDisemba 2018, lapho ukungezwani neChina kufinyelele phezulu kakhulu.
Ukukhula kwe-GDP komnotho wase-USA njengamanje kuku-3% YoY naku-3.4% QoQ okwenziwe ngonyaka. Kodwa-ke, abahlaziyi abaningi abacashunwe emaphephandabeni amakhulu ezezimali, babikezela ukuthi i-GDP YoY ingahle yehle ifike ku-2.6% lapho kutholakala uchungechunge lwemininingwane olulandelayo. Idatha ebambezelekile ngenxa yokuvalwa kukahulumeni ngoJanuwari. Ukwehla kwamandla emali njengamanje kuku-1.6%, ngakho-ke, ngeke kusimangaze uma imizuzu yomhlangano we-FOMC ishaya into ebhalwe ngokucophelela, ekhombisa ukuthi ikomidi alizange liphuthume ukuphindaphinda ukukhuphuka kwamazinga abo ohlelo, okwakhuthazwa ngonyaka owedlule.
Abadayisi beFX kufanele badayise lo mcimbi wekhalenda onomthelela omkhulu, njengoba ngokomlando isitatimende sinamandla okuhambisa izimakethe ezilinganisweni zase-USA kanye nenani le-USD, uma kuqhathaniswa nontanga yalo. Kumele kuqashelwe futhi ukuthi isitatimende siza ngesikhathi sevolumu yokuhweba ye-FX, ngemuva kokuthi iseshini yaseLondon ivaliwe, futhi induku yokuhweba kweFX idluliselwa ezimakethe zase-USA. Ngakho-ke, ukwenziwa kwemali kungaba yinkinga, ngababili be-USD ababhekene nama-spikes, noma ukubhebhana ebangeni, ngesikhathi nangemva kokukhishwa.
« I-Yen iwa njengoba ibhange likaJusi waseJapan uKuroda lisikisela ukwenziwa lula kwezinto endleleni yalo, ama-euro ashelela njengoba izibikezelo zibikezelwa ukuthi zembula ukukhula okuhamba kancane ISterling iphakama ethembeni lokuxoxisana ngeBrexit, idola laseMelika liwa njengoba izingxoxo zokuhweba zaseChina zikhombisa inqubekela phambili encane »