Ukugxila kuzoba ezimakethe zezimali zase-USA ezivulwe ngemuva kokwehlulwa kwangoLwesihlanu
Bonke ababambiqhaza bemakethe bazobe bebukele imakethe yesikhathi esizayo yezinkomba zase-USA lapho izimakethe zivulwa kulo lonke elase-Asia nase-Sydney ngeSonto kusihlwa/ngoMsombuluko ekuseni. Uma izimakethe zaseYurophu sezivula isithombe esicacile singase sivele mayelana nanoma yimuphi umonakalo wesikhashana wesikhathi esifushane odayiswe ngokulingana ngeviki eledlule. Kodwa-ke, ngeke kuze kufike isikhathi seseshini yaseNew York lapho kuzovela khona isithombe esibanzi. Abatshalizimali bakamuva abadayisi ku-SPX, DJIA kanye ne-NASDAQ (kusukela maphakathi no-2017 kuya phambili) bazobe belethwe ukushaqeka okufushane okubukhali kanye nesifundo mayelana nokungagwemeki ukuthi izimakethe zingawa futhi hhayi nje ukukhuphuka. Kungase kuthathe isikhashana ukuthi umuzwa ubuye, noma uma bebonke abatshalizimali bangahlehlisa amahlombe futhi baqhubeke nokubhida amanani akhuphukele phezulu, okuqinisekile ukuthi silindele i-Wall Street Open elindelwe ngabomvu ezinyangeni eziningi.
Abahlaziyi abaningi bazocaphuna ukuthi izikweletu zase-USA kanye nokushoda okuhlukahlukene kufanele kushaywe indiva futhi imodeli ethi 'print your way to prosperity' ekhona kusukela ngo-2008, iyaphila futhi iyaphila; inombolo ye-NFP ifike ngaphambi kwesibikezelo sangoLwesihlanu ngo-200k ngoJanuwari, ukuntuleka kwemisebenzi kusele ku-4.1%, amaholo ngehora akhuphuke ngo-2.9% YoY kanti inhlolovo yemizwa yasenyuvesi yaseMichigan ikhuphuke. Abanye abahlaziyi bazophakamisa ukuthi ngesinye isikhathi, lapho usukhokhe kathathu isikweletu sikazwelonke kusukela ngo-2008 futhi uthathe uhulumeni. ukuboleka kuze kufike ku-106% we-GDP, nge-deficit esondela ku-6%, khona-ke kukhona okumele kunikeze; i-FOMC kanye nohulumeni wase-US. kufanele ulawule kokubili ukusetshenziswa kwemali kanye nesikhuthazo, uma kungenjalo khona-ke i-squall emkhathizwe ingaba yisiphepho.
Inkomba enkulu ye-USA ye-equity, i-SPX, yehle ngo-4% ngesonto eledlule, ukuwa okukhulu kwamasonto onke kusukela ekuqaleni kuka-2016, inkomba ivale ngo-2.12% ngoLwesihlanu. Abahlaziyi kanye nezintatheli zezindaba zezezimali ezivamile, bazulazula ngenxa yezizathu zokuchaza nokuthethelela ukuwa, ngabe kwakunjalo; ukuthathwa kwenzuzo, e-USA amabhondi kamgcinimafa weminyaka eyishumi asondela esilinganisweni esibucayi esingu-3%, isizini yeholo ingahambisani nokulindelwe, njll.? Kodwa kwakukhona incazelo eyodwa ngokuphelele eyayingekho ngokusobala; ukukhuphuka okungama-30% kwe-YoY kusuka ezingeni eliphakeme uma kuqhathaniswa, bekungase kubangele ukudayiswa okungenakugwemeka nokuncane uma kuqhathaniswa.
I-SPX ibisezingeni eliphezulu ekuqaleni kuka-2017, ikhuphuke ngo-10% ngo-2016. Inkomba ikhuphuke isuka ku-2,000 ekuqaleni kuka-2016, yaya phezulu esondela ku-2,900 ekuqaleni kuka-2018, eminyakeni emibili inkomba ikhuphuke cishe ama-38% kuze kube sekupheleni kukaJanuwari. Ukubeka lokho kumongo; ukube ama-hedge funds amaningi avele “wathenga inkomba ye-SPX” eminyakeni emibili edlule, lapho-ke ekukhuleni okungama-38% bebeyokwehlula ukusebenza kwezimali eziningi.
Ukuphakama kwaso sonke isikhathi kwe-SPX yi-2,872, ukuvalwa kwangoLwesihlanu bekuyi-2,762, ukuwa kusuka phezulu kwe-3.98%, kusekhona igebe elibalulekile ngaphambi kokuthi sibize ukulungiswa, okuvunywa njengokwehla kwe-10% ukusuka phezulu. Kuzodingeka sibone ukwehla kwamaphoyinti angu-287 kuze kube yilapho kubizwa ukulungiswa, sithathe inkomba iye esibambisweni esibalulekile esingu-2,500 ngaphambi kokuthi sibize ukulungiswa okunjalo. Leli zinga lerekhodi lagcina liphuliwe ngoSepthemba 2017, izinga elabe selibungazwa abahlaziyi, ngokwesibonelo, ezindabeni ze-Bloomberg njengokungathi kusho ukunqoba okumangalisayo. Ngakho-ke ukulungiswa kwe-10% kungavele kusule izinzuzo/inzuzo yezinyanga ezi-4-5 futhi kubuyisele i-SPX kumazinga kaSepthemba.
Kumele futhi kuqashelwe ukuthi ukudayiswa ngeviki eledlule bekungafakwanga emasheya ase-USA, izimakethe zase-Asia nazo zehla, i-Europe yabamba lesi sifo futhi ngokuxakayo iDeutsche Bank, eyaxwayisa ngengozi yokulungiswa okuthathelwanayo, yabanjwa ngqo dayisa; amasheya abo ehla kakhulu njengoba imiphumela yadumaza izimakethe futhi kwaphinda futhi kwaphakanyiswa imibuzo mayelana nokushoda kwemali/ukukhokha/inzuzo yebhange.
Idola laseMelika lehle kakhulu kuze kube manje ngo-2018, futhi naphezu kokululama okuncane kwangoLwesihlanu uma kuqhathaniswa nobhasikidi wontanga yalo, inkomba yedola egcina usuku ikhuphuke cishe ngo-0.8%, i-USD isephansi ngonyaka kuze kube manje. Isici esingajwayelekile sengozi yangoLwesihlanu ngaphandle kwemvelo ehlobene nokuntuleka kwabatshalizimali abafuna ukuphephela ekutshalweni kwezimali okuphephile; igolide liphahlazeke lafika ezingeni le-S3, lavala cishe u-0.8% ngosuku, kuyilapho ezinye izindawo zokucasha zendabuko, njenge-yen ne-Swiss franc, nazo zehlulekile ukuthola amabhidi; I-USD/CHF kanye ne-USD/JPY ivalwe ngoLwesihlanu cishe ngo-0.3%, i-GBP/USD ivaliwe cishe okungeyakho. 1%.
UMsombuluko wusuku oluthulile lwezindaba zekhalenda lezomnotho kanye nokukhishwayo, iqoqo lezinsizakalo ze-Markit kanye nama-PMI ayinhlanganisela aseYurophu ashicilelwa; I-Italy, i-France, iJalimane, i-UK kanye ne-EZ ebanzi Ukukhiqiza nezinsizakalo ezingahlanganisiwe ze-PMI ezivela ku-ISM yase-USA ziyashicilelwa, ukufundwa kwe-ISM kunesisindo esikhulu kakhulu e-USA e-USA kunama-PMI ka-Markit.
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