ISITHOMBE SOKUMAKethwa KWESONTO 14/12 - 18/12 | I-EUR / GBP ifinyelela phezulu ayibonwa kusukela ngoSepthemba njengoba izingxoxo zikaBrexit zishayisa emadwaleni
Kunezikhathi lapho uhweba khona ngama-forex, ama-indices nempahla lapho izingqinamba ze-macroeconomic zisibekela imicimbi ebhalwe kukhalenda lakho lezomnotho. Isimo samanje kufanele sisebenze njengamakhono akho ayisisekelo wokuhlaziya nolwazi kumele ludlulele ngale kwedatha, izinqumo nemicimbi oyibona kukhalenda lansuku zonke.
Izinkinga ezimbili eziqavile njengamanje ziphethe indawo yethu yokuhweba, ubhadane lwe-swan swan neBrexit. Njengoba wazi, yona kanye imicimbi ye-black swan iqinisekisa ukuthi awuboni beza. Cabanga emuva ngalesi sikhathi ngonyaka odlule, ibinzana elithi "Covid 19" lalingekho kwisichazamazwi samazwe omhlaba. Manje, siphila impilo yethu emthunzini wegciwane.
Leli gciwane libe nomthelela oyingqayizivele kakhulu ezimakethe. Ukuwa kwemakethe yezimali ngo-Mashi kwakungabikezela ngokuphelele, uwoyela wehla waba nenani elibi ngoba akekho owayengathatha ubunikazi nokugcina ngokufanayo. Izindawo zokuphepha ezifana negolide nazo zikhuphukile ezindlekweni zombili nangokubona kwabatshalizimali kwenani. Kepha ukululama ezimakethe zamasheya nakumafutha bekumangalisa.
Isikhuthazo esikhulu sezimali kanye nemali uhulumeni wase-USA kanye neFederal Reserve bahlanganyele ekuqinisekiseni zonke izimakethe ezinkulu zamasheya emazweni aseMelika aphrintiwe, naphezu kwabangaphezu kwezigidi eziyi-15 abangasebenzi kanye nabamangali abasha abayizigidi ezingama-25. I-Tesla ikhuphuke ngokusondela ku-700%. Ngaphandle kokuletha ingxenyana yezimoto iToyota ingabe ibiza ngaphezu kokuphindwe ngekhulu.
I-Airbnb ithengiswe cishe ku- $ 18b ngaphambi kwalolu bhubhane. Yize ubhadane lucindezela ukufunwa kwezindiza kanye nezindiza, le femu yantanta ngoLwesine ngoDisemba 10 futhi kungazelelwe yafanele isondele ku- $ 90b. Intengo yayo ye-IPO yaphindeka kabili ekungeneni emakethe.
Kunenzuzo eyodwa yokwenyuka kwezinkanyezi kokuthandwa kweTesla ne-Airbnb; isikweletu asiseyona inkinga kunoma iyiphi inkampani. Kodwa-ke, ukuphakama okumangalisayo kuyinkomba yokuthi izimakethe zingamanzi kangakanani nokuthi ukuhlaziywa ngezindlela eziningi akusafuneki njengamanje, kunanini ngaphambili lapho udinga "ukuhweba okubonayo".
Idola laseMelika lehle ngokuqhathaniswa nontanga balo abaphambili ngenxa yesikhuthazi. Inkomba yedola (i-DXY) yehle -6.59% unyaka nosuku, kanti i-EUR / USD inyuke ngo-8.38% ngo-2020. Kufanele uhlolisise amashadi ukuze uthole isikhathi lapho i-USD yayingaphansi kwengcindezi enjalo.
Ekuqaleni kuka-2018 ngemuva kokuthi uTrump ebange impi engadingekile neChina kanye nezintela ezibekiwe kwaba okokugcina. Lowo mcimbi kanye "nezimpi zamanani" kubonisa ukuthi imicimbi ye-macroeconomic ingabusa kanjani. Ngesikhathi uTrump ebhala intukuthelo yakhe uma kuqhathaniswa neChina, izimakethe zisabele.
Uma izimakethe zamasheya e-US bekuyisidalwa, ake sithi osemusha onamahloni, khona-ke iyacunuka lapho ingakutholi lokho ekufunayo, uma kungekho shukela olugijimayo oluyisimo sezisusa khona-ke ama-sulks bese ephonsa intukuthelo. Yinike amandla, futhi ijabule ngokuzumayo. Ngokudabukisayo, njengamanje, ukuhlaziywa kwenkomba yezimakethe zezimali yilokho okuyisisekelo. Lapho iSenethi isivume izimakethe zokulingana zaseMelika ezingama- $ 900b + Pandemic Relief Bill cishe zizohlangana, ngesikhathi esifanele ukugibela iSanta Rally.
Ngokufanayo, uma sibheka ukubikezela ukuqondiswa kwe-USD kuleli sonto elizayo, kuncike esinqumweni sokuvuselela: umfutho owengeziwe = ukuwa kwenani le-USD. Ukuwa kwayo kuncike enanini elamukelwa iSigele.
IBrexit nayo ibe yizindaba ezihamba phambili kwezomnotho kuleli sonto eledlule. I-UK ekugcineni ifinyelele ekugcineni komgwaqo. Njengoba nje izakhamizi zase-UK zaba nesithukuthezi ngale ndaba futhi zavotela abakwaTori ukuba babuyele emandleni ukuze bakwazi "ukwenza iBrexit yenziwe", kunokunganakwa okuvamile nokungazi e-UK ngale nkinga.
I-Brit ejwayelekile ayazi ukuthi ukwehla kusuka ebudlelwaneni beminyaka engama-40-50 ne-EU kungadala kanjani ubuhlungu obukhulu kwezomnotho nakwezenhlalo; abaningi bayawakholelwa amanga athi "ubukhosi, inhlanzi, kanye nokuzimela".
NgeSonto kumele kube sekudlulile isaga esibuhlungu, usuku (lokucatshangwa) lokugcina lokuthi bobabili amaqembu avumelane ngesisombululo. Kuyathakazelisa ukuthi izindaba ezihamba phambili ezivela esithangamini sangoLwesihlanu se-EU Council of Leaders akusizo iBrexit, kepha ezokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kanye nesivumelwano sokunqanda ukungcola. Ukuqhamuka kwekhono lokuthatha isikhungo kungaba indawo yokuthi i-EU ekugcineni ishiye i-UK njenge ingane esabekayo futhi ikulungele ngokuphelele ukungasebenzi.
Njengoba sibonisile kaningana muva nje; iphawundi lase-UK alikaze likhuphuke kakhulu uma liqhathaniswa nedola laseMelika ezinyangeni ezisanda kwedlula, idola liwile uma liqhathaniswa nabo bonke ontanga. Iwile kancane ngokuqhathaniswa nokuhle. NgoLwesihlanu, uDisemba 11 ngo-11: 30 ekuseni, i-GBP / USD ithengiswe phansi -0.85% ku-1.3190, kukhuphuke ngo-0.40% unyaka kuze kube manje.
I-EUR / GBP ibidayisa ngo-0.9182, inyuke ngo-0.58% ngosuku inyuke ngo-8.07% unyaka nosuku. I-euro ibambelele kahle uma iqhathaniswa nontanga yayo ngonyaka we-2020, yize i-ECB ibambe iqhaza kumaround of stimulus kanye namanani wenzalo engekho zero noma amabi kubabeki kanye nabasindisi abajwayelekile.
Uma iSonto kuzoba usuku lokugcina lokuthi i-UK ifinyelele esivumelwaneni ne-EU, lapho-ke singalindela ukunyakaza okungazelelwe ngamabhangqa we-GBP uma izimakethe zeFX zivulekile. Ngakho-ke, abathengisi kudingeka bacabangele izikhundla zabo ngokucophelela. Izimo ezinjalo zingadala ama-spikes abalulekile angahle anciphise izitobha nemikhawulo. Esimweni esiphansi sokuhweba kodwa imvelo ephezulu yokuhwebelana, ukugcwalisa nokusabalala kungaba yinkinga.
Imicimbi yekhalenda ezobhekwa phakathi nesonto eliqala ngoDisemba 13
On NgoLwesibili sithola isibalo sakamuva sommangali nedatha yokungasebenzi kuma-ONS ase-UK. Ngenxa yobulukhuni nokufiphalaza, ukwahlulela ukuthi zinembe kangakanani lezi zinombolo kufana nokuzama ukufaka i-jelly odongeni. Kepha isibikezelo senzelwe ukuthuthuka okulingene ekubaleni kwabamangali kanye namaphesenti aphezulu wokungasebenzi kwabantu abasebenzayo.
Ukulinganisela kwezohwebo kweJapan kulindeleke ukuthi kuthuthuke lapho izibalo zidalulwa ngoLwesibili kusihlwa; lokhu kungathinta inani le-yen.
On NgoLwesithathu Isibalo sakamuva sokwehla kwamandla emali sase-UK sishicilelwe, esaseCanada sinjengoba sinjalo nemininingwane yakamuva yokuthengisa ye-USA. Akunasibalo sokwehla kwamandla emali okungenzeka ukuthi sihambise inani le-GBP noma le-CAD kakhulu. Izibalo zokuthengisa ze-USA zingakhombisa ukulangazelela komthengi imali angayisebenzisa.
Isibalo sokwehla kwamandla emali saseJapan sishicilelwa ngomhlaka Lwesine, kanti isibikezelo sediphu sifika ku- -0.4%. Ukuqhuba umnotho we-deflationary akuyona inselelo entsha kubenzi bezinqubomgomo noma abenzi bomthetho baseJapan.
NgoLwesihlanu ukukhishwa kwedatha kuphathelene nokufundwa kokuzethemba kwe-GfK kwakamuva kwabathengi base-UK. Isibikezelo sokufunda ngu -33. Le nombolo izosekela ucwaningo lwakamuva lwabantu abadala base-UK abasebenza, okusikisela ukuthi cishe u-68% ngeke abe nemali eyanele yokuphila ngeholo likaDisemba; kuzofanele baboleke kuze kufike inkokhelo kaJanuwari kuma-akhawunti abo asebhange. IHS Markit izoshicilela ukubulawa kwama-PMI phakathi nesonto. Lokhu kufundwa komthelela ophansi kuya kokuphakathi kuyakhohlisa ukucacisa ku-paradigm yamanje yobhadane. Zihlukahluka kabi inyanga nenyanga futhi azisathenjelwa kuzo njengezinkomba eziholayo eziholayo.
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