I-Elliot Wave Theory kanye noMsangano Wezixuku
Umhlaziyi odumile nonguchwepheshe wezimakethe uRobert Prechter wahlangabezana nomsebenzi kaRalph Elliott ngenkathi esebenza njengochwepheshe emakethe ebhange lotshalo-mali uMerrill Lynch. Ukuvelela kwakhe njengombikezeli, ngesikhathi semakethe yezinkunzi ngawo-1980, kwaletha ukuvezwa okukhulu emsebenzini ka-Elliott.
U-Prechter uhlala engumhlaziyi we-Elliott owaziwa kakhulu. URobert Prechter ungumbhali futhi ungumbhali wezincwadi eziyi-14, incwadi yakhe ethi "Conquer the Crash" kwakungumthengisi weNew York Times. Washicilela ukuphawula kwakhe kwezezimali nyangazonke encwadini yezindaba ethi "The Elliott Wave Theorist" kusuka ngo-1979 futhi ungumsunguli we-Elliott Wave International. UPrechter usebenze ebhodini le-Market Technicians Association iminyaka eyisishiyagalolunye. Eminyakeni yamuva u-Prechter usekele ucwaningo lwe-socionomics, umbono ngokuziphatha komphakathi.
URalph Elliott wayengumbhali wamabhuku ezimali, owathola imigomo yezenhlalo eyisisekelo futhi wasungula amathuluzi okuhlaziya okwabe sekuzokwaziwa nge-Elliot Wave Principle ngawo-1930. Uphakamise ukuthi amanani entengo emakethe avele emaphethini athile angakhonjwa, odokotela namuhla abawabiza ngokuthi amagagasi e-Elliott, noma bamane bathi "amagagasi". U-Elliott washicilela umbono wakhe wokuziphatha kwezimakethe encwadini ethi "The Wave Principle" ngo-1938 futhi wayifaka ngokugcwele emsebenzini wakhe omkhulu, "Imithetho Yemvelo: Imfihlo Yendawo Yonke" ngo-1946. U-Elliott wathi "ngoba umuntu uphansi kwenqubo yesigqi , izibalo eziphathelene nemisebenzi yakhe zingacaciselwa kude kakhulu esikhathini esizayo ngesizathu nokuqiniseka okungenakutholwa ".
I-Elliott Wave Principle iyincazelo eningiliziwe kanye 'nefomula' yokuthi amaqembu abantu acabanga kanjani futhi ngenxa yalokho aziphatha. I-EWP yembula ukuthi ukucabanga kwengqondo ngobuningi kubangela ukuguquka kokungabi nathemba kuye ekubeni nethemba futhi kubuyele ngokulandelana kwesigqi semvelo, ngaleyo ndlela kwakheke amaphethini athile futhi alinganisekayo. I-Elliott Wave Principle ingabonakala ngokusobala 'emsebenzini' ezimakethe zezezimali, lapho kuguqulwa khona i-psychology yabatshali zimali ngokuhamba kwamanani. Uma ukwazi ukubona amaphethini entengo aphindayo bese uthola ukuthi intengo ikuphi kulawo maphethini aphindayo ungaqiniseka ukubikezela (ngamazinga afanelekile wamathuba) lapho intengo iqonde khona ngokulandelayo.
I-EWP, nokho, iseyisivivinyo esingenzeka. U-Elliottician umuntu okwazi ukukhomba ukwakheka kwezimakethe futhi alindele isinyathelo esilandelayo esilandelayo ngokuya ngesikhundla esikhona kulezo zinhlaka. Ngokwazi amaphethini amagagasi, uzokwazi ukuthi izimakethe kungenzeka zenzeni ngokulandelayo futhi ngokubaluleke kakhulu okungenzeka ukuthi ngeke bakwenze ngokulandelayo. Ngokusebenzisa i-EWP kungenzeka ukukhomba ukuhamba okungenzeka okuphezulu kunengozi encane.
Kumanani entengo yemakethe ka-Elliott ayashintshana phakathi kwesigaba sezisusa ezingacabangi nesigaba sokulungisa kuzo zonke izikali zesikhathi salo mkhuba. Imizwa ihlukaniswe yaba yisethi yamagagasi ama-5 esezingeni eliphansi, eshintshana phakathi kwesisusa nomlingiswa wokulungisa, amagagasi 1, 3, no-5 ayizinkanuko, futhi amagagasi 2 no-4 ayizindlela ezincane zokubuyisa amagagasi 1 no-3. Amagagasi okulungisa ahlukana abe ama-3 amagagasi amancane aqala ngamandla we-counter-trend impulse yama-wave amahlanu, ukulandela ngomkhondo, nokunye ukufutheka. Ezimakethe zebhere umkhuba ovelele ubheke phansi, ngakho-ke iphethini iyahlehliswa, amagagasi amahlanu phansi futhi amathathu phezulu. Amagagasi eshukumiso ahlala ehamba nomkhuba, kuyilapho amagagasi okulungisa ehamba ngokumelene nawo.
AMAZA
Amaphethini ama-Wave amahlanu; Umkhuba Ovelele
I-Wave 1:
I-Wave one kungaba nzima ukuyibona ekuqaleni kwayo. Lapho igagasi lokuqala lemakethe yezinkunzi elisha liqala izindaba eziyisisekelo ngokuvamile azibi. Umkhuba wangaphambilini usengasebenza. Ucwaningo lwenzwa luyi-bearish. IVolumu ingakhuphuka njengoba intengo ikhuphuka, kepha hhayi ngomugqa owanele wokuxwayisa abahlaziyi bezobuchwepheshe.
I-Wave 2:
Amagagasi amabili alungisa ukuzulazula okukodwa, kepha akaze adlulele ngalapho kuqalwa khona igagasi elilodwa. Njengoba intengo ibuyisa umuzwa wangaphambilini ophansi, we-bearish uyakha, izimpawu ezinhle ziyavela kulabo abafuna. IVolumu kufanele ibe phansi ngesikhathi segagasi lesibili kunangesikhathi segagasi lokuqala, amanani entengo ngokuvamile awabuyiseli ngaphezulu kuka-61.8% we-Fibonacci we-wave one uzuza, intengo kufanele yehle ngephethini yamagagasi amathathu.
I-Wave 3:
I-Wave three imvamisa yigagasi elikhulu futhi elinamandla kunawo wonke kuthrendi. Izindaba manje seziqondile. Intengo ikhuphuka ngokushesha, noma yikuphi ukulungiswa kuphila isikhathi esifushane futhi akujulile. Njengoba izindaba ze-wave ezintathu ziqala mhlawumbe zise-bearish, futhi iningi labadlali bezimakethe bahlala benganeme; kodwa nge-wavepoint midpoint, "isixuku" sizohlala sijoyina umkhuba omusha we-bullish.
I-Wave 4:
I-Wave four ngokuvamile iyalungisa. Intengo ingahle ihambele eceleni isikhathi eside, bese kuthi amagagasi amane abuyele emuva ngaphansi kwe-38.2% Fibonacci yegagasi lesithathu. IVolumu ingaphansi kwale yegagasi lesithathu. Lokhu kungaba yindawo enhle yokuthenga ukubuyela emuva, amagagasi wesine angahlala ekhungathekisa ngenxa yokuntuleka kwawo kwenqubekela phambili enkulu.
I-Wave 5:
I-Wave five ngumlenze wokugcina oqonde kuthambekele phambili. Izindaba cishe zinhle emhlabeni wonke futhi wonke umuntu une-bullish. Yilapho abathengisi abaningi begcina bethenga khona ngaphambi kokuba kufinyelelwe phezulu. IVolumu ivame ukwehla kugagasi lesihlanu kunamagagasi amathathu, futhi izinkomba eziningi zomfutho zingakhombisa ukwehluka (intengo ifinyelela phezulu okusha, kepha izinkomba azifinyeleli esiqongweni esisha).
Iphethini lamagagasi amathathu; Umkhuba wokulungisa
I-Wave A:
Ukulungiswa kunzima ukukhomba kunokuhamba kwempembelelo. Ku-wave A wemakethe yamabhere, izindaba zisemihle. Izinkomba zobuchwepheshe ezihambisana negagasi A zifaka ivolumu eyengeziwe.
I-Wave B:
Intengo ihlehlisela phezulu abaningi babona lokhu njengokuqala kabusha kwemakethe yezinkunzi manje engasekho. Labo abajwayele ukuhlaziywa kwezobuchwepheshe zakudala bangabona ukuphakama njengehlombe langakwesokudla lephethini yokuguqula ikhanda namahlombe. Umthamo ngesikhathi segagasi B kufanele ube ngaphansi kunogagasi A. Izisekelo cishe kungenzeka ukuthi azisathuthuki, ngokunokwenzeka azikaze ziguquke zibe zimbi.
I-Wave C:
Intengo ihamba ngokweqile ngamagagasi amahlanu. IVolumu iyalanda, futhi ngomlenze wesithathu wegagasi C imakethe yebhere igxilile. I-Wave C okungenani inkulu njengogagasi A.
IMITHETHO EWP
Kunemithetho emithathu eyinhloko edingekayo yokuhumusha u-Elliott Wave. Kuneziqondiso eziningi, kepha kuphela imithetho emithathu 'eqinile futhi esheshayo' engaphuli. Imihlahlandlela ingaphansi kokuchazwa. Le mithetho isebenza kuphela ekulandelaneni komfutho we-5 wave. Ukulungiswa, okuyinkimbinkimbi kakhulu, kunikezwa inkululeko ethe xaxa uma kukhulunywa ngokuhunyushwa.
IMITHETHO
Umthetho 1: I-Wave 2 ayikwazi ukubuyisa ngaphezu kwe-100% ye-Wave 1.
Umthetho 2: I-Wave 3 ayisoze yaba mfushane kunawo wonke amagagasi amathathu omfutho.
Umthetho 3: I-Wave 4 ayisoze yahlangana ne-Wave 1.
GUIDELINES
- Umhlahlandlela 1: Lapho i-Wave 3 iyigagasi lomfutho elide kunawo wonke, i-Wave 5 cishe ilingana ne-Wave 1.
- Umhlahlandlela 2: Amafomu e-Wave 2 ne-Wave 4 azoshintshana. Uma i-Wave 2 isilungiso esibukhali, i-Wave 4 kuzoba ukulungiswa okuyisicaba. Uma i-Wave 2 isicaba, i-Wave 4 izobukhali.
- Umhlahlandlela 3: Ngemuva kokuthuthuka okuvezwa yi-5-wave, ukulungiswa (abc) kuvame ukuphela endaweni ye-Wave 4 ephansi.
Phakathi kochwepheshe bemakethe, ukuhlaziywa kwamagagasi kwamukelwa kabanzi njengengxenye yokuhweba kwabo. I-EWP ikubahlaziyi bezivivinyo okufanele badlule ukuze bathole igama elithi Chartered Market Technician (CMT), ukugunyazwa kobungcweti okwenziwe yi-Market Technicians Association (MTA).
URobin Wilkin, i-Ex-Global Head yeFX neQhinga Lezobuchwepheshe Lezimpahla kwaJPMorgan Chase; "umgomo we-Elliott Wave uhlinzeka ngohlaka lwamathuba okuthi uzongena nini emakethe ethile nokuthi uzophuma kuphi, kungaba yinzuzo noma ukulahlekelwa."
UJordani Kotick, iNhloko Yomhlaba Yonke Yezamasu Obuchwepheshe eBarclays Capital kanye noMongameli owedlule weNhlangano Yezobuchwepheshe Emakethe; "Ukutholakala kwe-EWP kwakungaphambi kwesikhathi sayo. Empeleni, kule minyaka eyishumi noma emibili edlule, izifundiswa eziningi ezihlonishwayo zamukele umbono ka-Elliott futhi bezilwela ngentshiseko ukuthi kube khona imingcele yezimakethe zezimali."
UPaul Tudor Jones, umhwebi wezimpahla eziyizigidigidi, ubiza umbhalo ojwayelekile kaPrechter noFrost ngo-Elliott ngokuthi "elinye lamaBhayibheli amane ebhizinisi."
Izikhalazo
Inkolelo yokuthi izimakethe zibonakala emaphethini abonakalayo empeleni iphikisana nokuqagela kwemakethe okusebenzayo, okusho ukuthi amanani awakwazi ukubikezelwa kusukela kudatha yemakethe njengokuhamba okumaphakathi nevolumu. Ngalesi sizathu, uma izibikezelo zemakethe eziphumelelayo zingenzeka, abatshalizimali babezothenga (noma bathengise) lapho indlela ibikezela ukwanda kwentengo (noma ukwehla), kuze kufike ezingeni lokuthi amanani azokhuphuka (noma ehle) ngokushesha, ngaleyo ndlela aqede inzuzo namandla okubikezela wendlela. Ezimakethe ezisebenza kahle, ulwazi lwe-Elliott Wave Principle phakathi kwabahwebi luzoholela ekunyamalaleni kwalawo maphethini abazama ukuwalindela, okwenza indlela, nazo zonke izinhlobo zokuhlaziywa kobuchwepheshe, kungasizi ngalutho.
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