Idatha Yezomnotho Engabukelwa Isonto
Ukukhishwa kwedatha yezomnotho enkulu yaleli sonto e-US kuzoba ama-oda ezimpahla ahlala isikhathi eside ngo-April ngoMeyi 24. Umbiko uzosikhanyisela ngezinga le-auto rebound e-US - nokuthi ingabe isizinzile yini ukuya ku-Q2.
Umsebenzi wezomnotho ozungeze izimoto wawungumusa wokonga we-Q1 GDP, enesibopho sokunikela ngo-+1.1% ekukhuleni okuphelele kwe-inventory ka-1.6% (okungukuthi ukungabikho kokuthuthuka komsebenzi wezomnotho ozungeze izimoto, isidingo sokugcina sasekhaya besizoba ngaphansi kakhulu).
Lokhu akubanga yinto eyodwa: izimoto zengeze u-0.5% ku-Q4 2011 GDP futhi. Umbuzo lapha ukuthi ijubane lokuphuka kwentamo lomsebenzi wezimoto lingaqhubeka noma cha.
Izimpikiswano "pro" yilezi:
- izimoto zase-US ziyaguga
- ngaphambi kwezinyanga ezimbili ezedlule, isimo semisebenzi besilokhu siba ngcono
- izimoto ezintsha zinikeza intuthuko eminingi yezobuchwepheshe efana nokusebenzisa uphethiloli, njll. Impikiswano ethi 'con' empeleni iwukuthi idatha yokuqashwa - amaholo, amaholo, amahora asetshenziwe - muva nje athambekele futhi awaqinile ngokwanele ukusekela ukukhuphuka okukhulu kokusetshenziswa. Ingxabano engeyona eye-macro kungaba ukuthi izimoto zase-US ezithuthukisiwe zizuza isabelo semakethe - ngisho noma ukuthengiswa kwemboni kukonke kungase kuhlale kuphansi.
Silindele ukuthi izimoto zenze umnikelo oqinile kuma-oda wezimpahla ezihlala isikhathi eside kanye namandla asayinwe yinkomba ye-ISM. Isici esiyingozi lapha ukuthi ama-oda amasha e-Boeing ehle afinyelela ezindizeni ezine nje ezintsha. Lokho kumele ukuncishiswa okungaphezu kuka-90% kusukela enyangeni edlule, futhi kungahlehlisa wonke umfutho ovela kuma-oda ezimoto ezintsha.
Noma kunjalo, silindele ukukhula ngo-0.5% kubhalansi. Phakathi kwezinto ezivelele zekhalenda ledatha yezomnotho yase-UK yangesonto elizayo kuzoba ukukhululwa kwe-CPI ne-RPI yokwehla kwamandla emali ngo-April. Silindele ukuthi ukwehla kwamandla emali kwe-CPI kwehle kusuka ku-3.5% y/y kuya ku-3.3%, kuyilapho ukwehla kwamandla emali kwe-RPI kungenzeka kubambe ku-3.6% y/y. Ukwehla kwamandla emali bekulokhu kwehle kakhulu kusukela ngoSepthemba, nokho, okufike ekupheleni kungazelelwe ngenyanga edlule lapho izinga lenyuka. Sibona ukwehla okusesilinganisweni kuya maphakathi nonyaka, kodwa ngale kwalokho ukwehla kwe-downtrend kungenzeka kulahlekelwe umfutho. Abashayeli abakhulu bezinzuzo zamanani kule nyanga kungenzeka kube izintengo zotshwala, ugwayi nezokuthutha, kuyilapho umthelela oyisisekelo ezindlekweni zokuhamba ngendiza uzonikeza ukuhudula esihlokweni.
Sekukonke, ukwehla kwamandla emali kubonakala kuqinile kunalokho obekulindelwe ekuqaleni konyaka. Ingxenye yalokhu kungenxa yokweqa kwamanani kawoyela afinyelele ku-US$125/bbl kuze kube maphakathi no-March.
Sengikushilo lokho, ukwehla okufika cishe ku-US$110/bbl kuleli sonto kufanele kususe ukushisa kwentengo kaphethiloli ukuya phambili. Nokho, lokhu kuthuthukiswa akunakwenzeka ukushintsha isithombe esikhulu kakhulu. Umbono wethu ukuthi ukwehla kwamandla emali kwe-CPI kuzokwehla kancane nje ngaphansi kuka-3% unyaka nonyaka.
Uhlu lokukhushulwa kwamanani ahlelwe kusengaphambili okufana nokukhushulwa kwezimali zokufunda zasenyuvesi, izintela zesono, ukukhuphuka kwezinga lemali ebolekiwe, njll. kufanele kushiye ukwehla kwamandla emali kungaphezu kokuphokophelwe okungu-2% kweBhange LaseNgilandi.
Umnotho waseThailand usalokhu usendleleni yokusimama ngokusetshenziswa kwangasese kanye nokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe okusekela ukuphindaphinda kwenani lekota yokuqala yonyaka. Imizamo yokwakha kabusha kanye nokuvuselela kwezimali kusalokhu kuyizinsika eziyinhloko ekululameni kwaseThailand ngemva kwezikhukhula zangonyaka odlule. Kodwa-ke, lokhu kuthuthukiswa bekungalingani kuyo yonke imikhakha yezimboni futhi ngenkathi ezinye zazo seziphinde zathola amazinga angaphambi kwezikhukhula, ezinye zisathobekile. Silindele ukuthi umnotho waseThailand uzokhula ngo-5.0% unyaka nonyaka ngo-2012; nokho, silindele izinga lokukhula elisondela ku-zero engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka ngemva kokwehla ngo-9.0% y/y ezinyangeni ezintathu zokugcina zika-2011.
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