I-ECB Izoqala Ukuqiniswa Okunamandla, Ithanda Izinkunzi Ze-Euro
Ukuphela kwenyanga endaweni yemali kulindeleke. Kuhlanganisa nempelasonto yayizolo yase-US, ukugeleza okuhlanganisiwe bekuphansi ngesikhathi samahora ase-Asia nase-London kodwa kwabona umkhuba wokuthenga i-euro kulandela idatha yokwehla kwamandla emali evela eSpain naseJalimane.
Izingxoxo emphakathini ohwebayo zazigxile kakhulu ezindabeni zangesonto eledlule, okuwukuqiniswa kwenqubomgomo yeBhange Elikhulu LaseYurophu kanye nokuba buthaka kwedola. Sinezikhathi ezithakazelisayo ngaphambi kwesinqumo senqubomgomo yezimali yangesonto elizayo, ukukhula okuthuthukisiwe kwe-ECB nezibikezelo zokwehla kwamandla emali, kanye nesiqondiso esengeziwe esivela kuMongameli WeBhange Elikhulu LaseYurophu uChristine Lagarde.
Ukugeleza kwasekupheleni kukaMeyi bekulindeleke ukuthi kusekele idola, futhi sibone ukwesekwa okuthile ngesonto eledlule. Omunye umhwebi we-interbank wangitshela ukuthi abalindele ukugeleza okuningi kulelo cala namuhla, ikakhulukazi njengoba amasheya ase-US asanda kuhlangana. Lokhu, futhi, kungitshela ukuthi i-euro inendawo yokukhula.
Imayelana ne-asymmetry ye-ECB. Kubathengisi bemali, amathuba okukhuphuka kwamaphuzu angama-50 ngoJulayi acishe afane nokukhuphuka kwamaphuzu angama-25. Isazi Esiyinhloko Sezomnotho uPhilip Lane sithe izolo ukuthi ukulungiswa kwenqubomgomo yezimali kuzoba kancane kancane futhi "ijubane eliyisisekelo liwukukhuphuka kwamaphuzu angama-25 emihlanganweni kaJulayi noSepthemba". Lesi yisitatimende esicacile, kepha sishiya indawo yokuthuthuka okwengeziwe, njengakumazwana akamuva kaLagarde. Futhi njengoba uLane engowekamu elilinganiselwe loMkhandlu Ophethe, lokhu ngokuvamile kungathathwa njengesitatimende soklebe.
Ukuthi ukunyakaza okungokomlando kwesisekelo se-50 kungenzeka ukuthi kwenzeke into abadayisi be-forex abazoyibona emakethe yezinketho. Ukwehluka kwe-euro kusalokhu kuvumelana nedola kodwa kumazinga aphansi kakhulu we-bearish ohlobo lwemali eyodwa kunamaphakathi noMeyi. Uma sibona ukuphindaphinda kwentengo kanye nokuhamba kokuqala ku-premium kuya kumazinga e-euro e-bullish, kungase kuthathwe njengophawu oluqinile lokuthi abahwebi balindele umbono we-ECB we-dovish kanye nengozi enkulu yokukhuphuka kwengxenye yephesenti ngoSepthemba.
Umehluko wesilinganiso senzalo phakathi kwe-US neJalimane uyaqhubeka nokuncipha, kuyilapho okulindelwe ukwehla kwamandla emali esikhathini esimaphakathi kuphawule ukwehla kwesikhathi esifushane ku-eurozone. Ukuhlaziywa kokusabalala kwe-euro-dollar kanye nokushintshashintsha kwe-EU-US eminyakeni engu-1-2 kusukela manje kubonisa ukuthi umnyakazo obheke ku-$1.13 ungase ube sendleleni. Ngama-“buts” ambalwa amakhulu: ukuthi isimo se-Covid sikhula kanjani e-China nokuthi ukungqubuzana kwezempi e-Ukraine kuzoba yisithiyo esikhulu futhi. Kuze kube manje, ukwanda okungaphezu kwesilinganiso esinyakazayo sezinsuku ezingama-55 kukhuluma okokuqala kusukela ngoFebhuwari ezindabeni zokuthi abaholi be-EU bavumile ukuvinjelwa kancane kukawoyela waseRussia, okuvula indlela yomzuliswano wesithupha wonswinyo ukuze kujeziswe iMoscow, kuyazikhulumela. . Sekuvele kukhona umfutho wokwehla kwedola, kodwa njengoba sishilo ngesonto eledlule, qaphela ukuqubuka okungamanga phakathi nokugeleza kwemali kokuphela kwenyanga kanye nokwehliswa kwe-liquidity ngenxa yenkathi yamaholide. Kusukela kusasa, singakhuluma nangesizini.
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