Ukwehliswa kwezinga le-ECB kwenza imakethe isimangaze, izimpukane ze-Twitter IPO, ukuntuleka kwemisebenzi e-USA, iGDP iyakhuphuka, kepha izimakethe ezinkulu zase-USA ziyawa…

UNovemba 8 • Ukushayela kwe-Morning Roll • Ukubukwa okungu-6858 • Amazwana Off ekwehlisweni kwezinga le-ECB kwenza imakethe isimanga, izimpukane ze-Twitter IPO, ukuntuleka kwemisebenzi e-USA, i-GDP iyakhuphuka, kepha izimakethe ezinkulu zase-USA ziyawa…

twitter-birdAkuvamile ukuthi sijabulele (noma sikhuthazelele) izikhathi zokuhweba eziphakeme kakhulu kumadrama avela kuzo zonke izinhlangothi, kepha uLwesine bekungolunye lolo suku. Ezingxenyeni eziningi izindaba zonke zazizinhle. Sibe nezicelo zokuwa kwabantu abangasebenzi e-USA (zehla nge-circa 9K kuya ku-336K) ngenkathi i-USA GDP inyuke ngaphezu kwalokho obekulindelwe, inyuke ngo-2.8% kusuka ezibikezelweni zosomnotho ze-2%. Inkomba yeBhodi Yenkomfa yase-USA inyuke ngo-0.7%.

Ngaphandle kwalezi zinkomba ezinhle izimakethe ezinkulu e-USA zathengisa kakhulu. Manje izizathu zingaba ziningi futhi zihlukahlukene; kungenzeka kube nokushintshwa kwamasheya athile kuflotation ephumelele ngokumangalisayo ye-Twitter, noma abatshalizimali bebona izindaba ezinhle eziningi ezinomthelela omkhulu wezindaba ezivela e-USA bakha isiphetho sokuthi 'i-taper' ibuyile. Noma abahlaziyi kungenzeka ukuthi bacubungule imininingwane kwi-GDP ukuze babone ukuthi ukukhula kwempahla kuphela okwakungumshayeli wangempela wedatha, njengoba ukuthengisa okuthengiswayo nokuzethemba kwabathengi kukhombisa izimpawu zokukhathala. Noma mhlawumbe abahlaziyi baneso elilodwa embikweni wemisebenzi ye-NFP kusasa bese becaphuna isihloko se-Time magazine esithi “kuzoba ngundabuzekwayo impela”. Isibikezelo semisebenzi eyi-121K kuphela engezwe ngo-Okthoba, ngokwemvelo izaba ze-govt yesikhashana. ukuvalwa shaqa kuzophinde kukhishwe njengesaba, kepha akugezi ngempela, noma kuhlangana nenye idatha eyisihluthulelo.

Kunzima ukuxhumanisa izindaba ezimangazayo ezivela eYurophu nase-ECB ezilinganisweni zezimakethe eziwayo, kepha bekungekho ukungabaza okuncane ukuthi ukwehliswa kwezinga lenzalo ngo-0.25%, kusuka ku-0.5%, kumangaze abatshali bezimali abaningi bezimakethe kanye nabaqageli. Kodwa-ke, bekukhona ezinye izikhungo ebezikubiza kanjalo izolo futhi ngokubuka kwe-swing / trend yokuhweba akukho abathengisi obekufanele babe yisikhathi eside se-euro lapho izindaba ziqhamuka zokwehliswa kwezinga lesisekelo. Thatha umnsalo abahlaziyi nabahlaziyi ku: Bank of America, Royal Bank of Scotland Group nase-UBS bonke abayibize kahle.

 

I-Twitter isuka iflaya

I-Twitter ayigcinanga ngokudelela amabhere esimisweni sokuhweba sangoLwesine kepha nama-cynics; Kuyimfihlakalo ukuthi inkampani evumela ukuthi abakhiqizi bemiyalezo yabo (emifushane) babelane ngomyalezo owodwa nezigidi, futhi abathembele ekuphusheni izikhangiso kumakhasimende, abangafuni ngempela ukuthi kuthengiswa ini, manje ibiza u- $ 31 billion Emuva ngoFebhuwari 2013 abahlaziyi babephakamisa ukuthi inani lamadola ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyishumi nanye lalingaphezu kwamandla kanti nokho sesikhona, libiza u- $ 11 billion. Njengoba isisho esidumile sisho; "Imakethe ingahlala isikhathi eside ingenangqondo kunalokho ungahlala kuphela".

Isitoko saqala ukuhweba ngo- $ 45.10, 73% ngaphezu kwentengo yaso yokuqala yokunikeza umphakathi engu- $ 26, ngaphambi nje kuka-11 ekuseni nge-ET. I-Twitter iqhubeke nokukhuphuka, ikhuphuka yaze yafika ku- $ 50.09. Ivale usuku lwakhuphuka ngama-73% ngo- $ 44.90, ngamasheya angaphezu kwezigidi eziyi-117 eshintshana ngezandla ngosuku lokuqala lokuhweba.

 

Umbiko Wokufuna Izimangalo Wamasonto onke wase-US Wokungasebenzi

Esontweni eliphela ngoNovemba 2, isibalo sangaphambili sezimangalo zokuqala ezilungiswe ngezikhathi ezithile besingama-336,000, ukwehla kuka-9,000 kusuka kusibalo esibuyekeziwe sesonto eledlule esingu-345,000. Isilinganiso sokuhamba samasonto amane sibe ngama-4, ukwehla kwe-348,250 kusuka esilinganisweni esibuyekeziwe sesonto eledlule lama-9,250. Izinga lokungasebenzi eliqinisekisiwe elilungiswe ngezikhathi ezithile lonyaka lalingamaphesenti angu-357,500 evikini eliphela ngo-Okthoba 2.2, lingashintshiwe kusukela kunani elingalungisiwe lesonto eledlule. Inombolo engaphambi kokungasebenzi kwemishwalense ehlelwe ngezikhathi ezithile phakathi nesonto eliphela ngo-Okthoba 26 yayingu-26, ukwanda ngama-2,868,000 kusuka emavikini adlule abuyekeziwe.

 

I-Conference Board Ehola Inkomba Yezomnotho ye-US Ikhuphuke ngoSepthemba

IConference Board Leading Economic Index yaseMelika inyuse amaphesenti ayi-0.7 ngoSepthemba yaya ku-97.1 (2004 = 100), kulandela ukwanda ngamaphesenti angu-0.7 ngo-Agasti, nokwenyuka ngo-0.4% ngoJulayi. I-LEI kaSepthemba iphakamisa ukuthi umnotho wawukhula ngesizotha futhi mhlawumbe uthola umfutho ngaphambi kokuvalwa kukahulumeni.

 

Umkhiqizo wasekhaya wase-US: ikota yesithathu 2013 - ukulinganisa kusengaphambili

Umkhiqizo wangempela ophelele wasekhaya, ukukhishwa kwezimpahla kanye nezinsizakalo ezikhiqizwe ngabasebenzi nempahla ese-United States, kukhuphuke ngezinga lonyaka lama-2.8 wamaphesenti kwikota yesithathu yonyaka we-2013 (okungukuthi, ukusuka kwikota yesibili kuya kwikota yesithathu), ngokwesilinganiso "sangaphambilini" esikhishwe yi-Bureau of Economic Analysis. Kwikota yesibili, i-GDP yangempela inyuke ngamaphesenti ama-2.5. I-Bureau igcizelele ukuthi ukulinganiselwa kwekota yesithathu kusengaphambili okukhishwe namuhla kususelwa kwimininingwane yomthombo engaphelele noma ekhonjelwe ekubuyekezweni okuqhubekayo yi-ejensi yomthombo.

 

Ukubukwa kwemakethe

I-DJIA ithengisile yabona ukwehla kwenkomba ngaphansi kuka-15600, ukuvala u-0.97%. I-SPX ivale u-1.32%, i-NASDAQ ithengise kakhulu ngo-1.90%. Izimakethe eziningana zaseYurophu nazo zahlushwa usuku 'olubomvu'; I-STOXX phansi ngo-0.44%, i-CAC phansi ngo-0.14%, i-DAX inyuke ngo-0.44%, i-FTSE yehle ngo-0.66%. Ukushintshaniswa kwe-Athene kuvale u-1.25% yize kunesiteleka esijwayelekile izolo, ukuvakasha kwe-troika kubonakala kuzohleleka.

Uwoyela we-NYMEX WTI uvaliwe ngosuku ngo-0.63% ku- $ 94.20 emgqonyeni, igesi ye-NYMEX ivaliwe ngosuku u-0.60%, igolide le-COMEX lavala u-0.71% ngo- $ 1308.50 nge-ounce, i-COMEX yesiliva yehla ngo-0.50% ngo- $ 21.66 ngehora.

Ikusasa lenkomba ye-Equity likhomba ezimakethe ezinkulu zase-Europe nezase-USA ezivulwa endaweni engeyinhle. I-DJIA yehle ngo-0.64%, i-SPX yehla ngo-1.16%, i-NASDAQ yehla ngo-1.67%. Ikusasa le-STOXX lehle ngo-0.33%, ikusasa le-DAX lenyuka ngo-0.51%, ikusasa le-CAC lehla ngo-0.14%, kanti ikusasa le-UK FTSE lehle ngo-0.73%.

 

Ukugxila kwe-Forex

I-euro yehle ngamaphesenti angu-0.7 yaya ku- $ 1.3424 ngasekupheleni kwesikhathi saseNew York ngemuva kokushelela cishe ngamaphesenti angu-1.6, ukwehla okukhulu kunakho konke kusukela ngoDisemba 2011. Ithinte u- $ 1.3296, okuyizinga elibuthakathaka kakhulu kusukela ngoSepthemba 16. Izwe lezizwe ezi-17 ezabiwe ngemali lehle ngamaphesenti ayi-1.4 laya kuma-yen ayi-131.47. Imali yaseJapan yengeze amaphesenti angu-0.8 kuma-97.88 ngedola ngalinye ngemuva kokulahla okungamaphesenti angama-0.8. I-euro yehle kakhulu eminyakeni emibili uma iqhathaniswa nedola ngemuva kokuthi i-European Central Bank yehlise ngokungalindelekile isilinganiso sayo semali esisezingeni eliphakeme saba ngamaphesenti angu-0.25 ukukhulisa ukukhula esifundeni semali esinamalungu ayi-17.

I-US Dollar Index inyuke ngo-0.3% yaya ku-1,016.51 ngemuva kokuthinta u-1,022.30, okuyisibalo esikhulu kusukela ngoSepthemba 13. Ithole cishe amaphesenti ayi-0.9, iningi kusukela ngo-Agasti 1.

Iphawundi yaqinisa amaphesenti ayi-0.7 kuya kuma-83.48 pence nge-euro ngayinye ngemuva kokuthola u-83.01 pence, okuyizinga eliqine kakhulu kusukela ngoJanuwari 17, njengoba iBhange laseNgilandi ligcina inzalo yalo esemqoka nenzalo yokuthengwa kwamabhondi ingashintshile, kufana nesibikezelo sabo bonke abahlaziyi abahloliwe.

 

izibopho

Isilinganiso seminyaka eyi-10 yeBenchmark sehle ngamaphuzu amane esisekelo, noma iphuzu lamaphesenti ayi-0.04, laya kumaphesenti angama-2.60 kusukela ngehora lesi-5 PM eNew York. Intengo yenothi lamaphesenti angu-2.5 ngenxa ka-Agasti 2023 yengeze u-3/8, noma u- $ 3.75 ngemali yobuso eyi- $ 1,000, ku- 99 5/32. Isivuno sehle cishe ngamaphuzu ayisihlanu esisekelo, iningi kakhulu kusukela ngo-Okthoba 22. Amagugu aphakama, ecindezela isivuno kumanothi weminyaka emihlanu cishe ezingeni eliphansi kakhulu kusukela ngoJuni, njengoba isikweletu sase-US saheha abathengi ngemuva kokuthi i-European Central Bank isike inzalo ebekiwe ukukala kwirekhodi eliphansi.

 

Izinqumo zenqubomgomo eyisisekelo nemicimbi yezindaba ezinomthelela omkhulu engathinta imizwa yezimakethe ngoLwesihlanu Novemba 8

Imicimbi yezindaba zase-Europe esimisweni sasekuseni ikakhulu ithinta ibhalansi yezimali yase-UK, okulindeleke ku- -9.1billion kanye nebhalansi yezohwebo yaseJalimane kulindeleke ku- +17.2 billion.

Izibalo zokuqashwa kwabantu baseNyakatho Melika eCanada nase-USA zishicilelwa esimisweni sokuhweba ntambama. Izinga labantu abangasebenzi eCanada kulindeleke ukuthi lenyuke liye ku-7.0%, kanti umbiko wemisebenzi ye-NFP e-USA kulindeleke ukuthi ukhombise ukuthi kuphela imisebenzi engu-121K eyadalwa ngo-Okthoba. Izinga lokungasebenzi e-USA lingakhuphukela ku-7.3%. Umbiko wokuqala wemizwa ye-University of Michigan ushicilelwe kulindeleke ukuthi ukhombise isibalo se-74.6.

I-China iletha isihlenga semininingwane sekwephuzile ngoLwesihlanu kusihlwa, izindaba ezinomthelela omkhulu zizogxila emazingeni e-inflation, i-CPI elindeleke ku-3.3%, imali mboleko entsha ku-circa 800 bn, kanye nokukhiqizwa kwezimboni okulindeleke ngo-10.1% ngonyaka ngonyaka.

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