Okthoba 5 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-6537 • 1 Comment ku Ngabe ikati elifile lisabhampa lapho selidlulile izimpilo eziyisishiyagalolunye?
Ngenkathi izimakethe ezinkulu ziqala 'ukulungisa' ngasekupheleni kukaJulayi - ekuqaleni kuka-Agasti izihlakaniphi eziningi nonodoli abasatshaliswayo badedelwa ngokushesha ukuze 'babuke amaza omoya, izinkundla kanye nokusakazwa kwezindaba ezijwayelekile zabasolwa ngenhloso yokududuza uquqaba maqondana nomthelela. Omunye wemiyalezo evelele kakhulu wawuthi; "Hhayi-ke sisesimweni esihle sonyaka, futhi-ke, lesi kungaba yisikhathi esihle sokuthatha ezinye izivumelwano" Er… Kulungile..noma yini ..
I-UK FTSE 100 manje isihlehlise u-12.3% unyaka nonyaka, ngokuthola ukuthi yiziphi izivumelwano ezisetshenziswayo nokuthi yimiphi imikhakha ochwepheshe abangathanda ukuthi sigembule ngayo ukuqagela kwanoma ngubani. Mayelana nokuthi abahlaziyi bakhuluma ngobani njengezihlahla zemali yemilingo, ngemali esalayo elenga ukulungela 'ukutshala', nakho kuyimpicabadala. Ngaphandle kokuthi iningi kufanele lenze uHugh Hendry we-Eclectica Asset Management futhi libe nokufushane okukhulu ku-Hang Seng kusetshenziswa ama-funky algorithms, noma wenze uJohn Paulson bese ubona ukuphahlazeka kwemakethe ye-subprime mortgage.
Umthelela lokhu kulungiswa okuzoba nawo empeshenini yabantu abaningi abasebenza kanzima, osopolitiki bethu abahlale bebabiza ngokuthi “benza okulungile”, mkhulu kakhulu. Iqiniso lokuthi i-FTSE 100 manje seyicishe libe ngu-30% phansi kule minyaka eyishumi edlule ebiphakeme ngo-2007 kube neminikelo eminingi yempesheni (kubantu) engenamsebenzi kule minyaka eyishumi edlule. Kodwa-ke, amasu amakhulu wePonzi adaliwe, izimpesheni, ngeke aze agxekwe abezindaba abajwayelekile, lelo ibhokisi elilodwa likaPandora elizohlala livaliwe ngokuqinile uma lingena esitobhini somsebenzi wethu.
Okwamanje iningi liyakwemukela ukuthi ukululama okungenamsebenzi kwakungeke kutholakale, ngaphandle uma impumelelo, ngokwesibonelo i-USA, izolinganiswa ngokusebenzisa imali engango- $ 1.3 trillion nokuphatha ukugcina ukungasebenzi kuntanta ku-9%. Amazinga angenakubalwa wokutakulwa nokusekelwa e-USA, kanye ne-zirp, kudale umhlangano wezimakethe zebhere esesike sabhekana nawo kusukela ngonyaka ka-2010. umbuzo omkhulu oqhubekela phambili, ucabanga, futhi kuwumbono omkhulu, ukuthi lezi zinkinga azingeni esigabeni esisha esiyingozi ngokwengeziwe. Uma izimakethe zibuyela esimweni esiphakeme sika-2012, noma kumazinga akamuva kaJan 2007, manje iningi liyakwamukela ukuthi noma yikuphi 'ukubuyiswa' kungathengwa ngesikhathi esabolekiwe esilingana nosayizi wabatakuli 'abasha' ngemali ethe xaxa yokudala.
Ngaphandle kwezindaba ezinhle zokuthi i-troika ne-EU babonakala beqeda ukuncoma izixazululo zabo kuze kube yisixazululo esithembekile, i-rally yemakethe esekugcineni yabhekana ne-USA, okwaholela ekutheni i-SPX ivale u-2.2% (njengoba yehliswe ngenani elifanayo isigaba esisodwa ngeseshini), asizange sidlulele ezimakethe zase-Asia, i-Nikkei yavala u-0.86% kwathi i-Hang Seng yavala u-3.4%. Inkomba yaseHong Kong manje sehle ngonyaka omkhulu wama-28.22% ngonyaka. Asethembe ukuthi izakhamizi zaseHong Kong nabahola impesheni abazithathanga izeluleko zezihlakaniphi zabo bazama ukukhetha ezansi emakethe yabo enkulu, noma mhlawumbe balandela i-Eclectica ..
Izinga lokuthenga ngesikweletu lase-Italy linqunywe yi-Moody's Investors Service okokuqala ngqa cishe eminyakeni engamashumi amabili izolo kusihlwa ngezikhalazo zokuthi ukukhula okubuthaka okungapheli kwe-Italy kuzokwenza kube nzima ukunciphisa isikweletu sesibili ngobukhulu esifundeni. I-Moody yehlise isilinganiso sama-Italy amazinga amathathu aya ku-A2 kusuka ku-Aa2, ngombono ongemuhle. Lesi senzo siza ngemuva kokuthi iStandard & Poor yehlise isithunzi e-Italy ngoSepthemba 20 okokuqala ngqa eminyakeni emihlanu. I-Italy yagcina ukunqanyulwa ngabakwaMoody's ngoMeyi 1993. Kodwa-ke, okubadinisa kakhulu ukusikisela kukaMoody abangakakuqedi ngokushiswa kwabo nokusha.
Zonke kodwa izingqungqulu ezisendaweni enamandla kakhulu e-euro kungenzeka zibhekane nengcindezi engemihle ekulinganisweni kwazo. Ngenxa yalokho, uMoody ulindele amazwe ambalwa ngaphansi kwe-AAA ukuthi agcine izilinganiso eziphezulu, azikho izingcindezi ezisheshayo ezingadala ukwehliselwa phansi kwamazwe alinganiswe ne-AAA.
Ama-indices aseYurophu asethole namhlanje ekuseni, i-STOXX njengamanje inyuke ngo-2.1%, i-UK FTSE inyuke ngo-1.73%, i-CAC inyuke ngo-2.41% kwathi i-DAX yona yenyuka ngo-1.94%. I-Brent crude ifinyelela ku- $ 166 emgqonyeni negolide liphansi ngama- $ 22 i-ounce. Ikusasa lokulingana kwansuku zonke le-SPX okwamanje liphansi cishe ngo-0.5%. I-euro ichithe iningi lenzuzo yayo encane uma iqhathaniswa nedola ngemuva kokuthengiswa okukhulu okutholwe kulezi zinsuku ezimbalwa ezedlule. Iqhubekile nokwazisa ngokuqhathanisa neSwitzerland njengoba inesitayela esihle kakhulu uma kuqhathaniswa nedola ne-yen. Idola lase-Aussie selikhuphukile liqhathaniswa nedola laseMelika ekuhwebeni ebusuku kakhulu.
Ukukhishwa kwedatha okukhulu okungathinta imizwa ekuvulweni kweseshini yaseNew York noma ezungeze lokhu kufaka okulandelayo;
12:00 US - MBA Izicelo Zokubolekwa Kwemali Sep
13:15 US - ADP Guqula Umsebenzi Septhemba
15:00 US - Inkomba Yokungakhiqizi ye-ISM Septhemba
Okuheha kakhulu isibalo sokuqashwa kwe-ADP ebesingalungile futhi esingathembekile sekwedlule isikhathi. Ucwaningo lweBloomberg lwabahlaziyi lubikezela ukwanda kwama-70,000, uma kuqhathaniswa nokukhuphuka kwenyanga edlule kwe-91,000. Kungaba khona ukulungiswa okubuyekeziwe kuka-Agasti okuqukethwe ngaphakathi kokukhishwa kwedatha. Inkomba ye-ISM ingathinta imizwa, njengokufundwa okuningana inani elingaphezulu kwama-50 libhekwa njengelifanele. Abahlaziyi abacwaningwe yiBloomberg bakhombise ukulindelwa okuphakathi kuka-52.8, uma kuqhathaniswa nezinga lenyanga edlule lika-53.3.
iziphakamiso zemakethe zangaphambiliukulungiswa kwemaketheukwehla kwamandla omnotho
« Ngabe Inkukhu Engenakhanda YaseTroika Iwela Nini Endaweni Yokusindisa? Abagijimi bakaDexia Midnight »
Ngabe ikati elifile lisabhampa lapho sekudlule izimpilo eziyisishiyagalolunye?
Okthoba 5 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-6537 • 1 Comment ku Ngabe ikati elifile lisabhampa lapho selidlulile izimpilo eziyisishiyagalolunye?
Ngenkathi izimakethe ezinkulu ziqala 'ukulungisa' ngasekupheleni kukaJulayi - ekuqaleni kuka-Agasti izihlakaniphi eziningi nonodoli abasatshaliswayo badedelwa ngokushesha ukuze 'babuke amaza omoya, izinkundla kanye nokusakazwa kwezindaba ezijwayelekile zabasolwa ngenhloso yokududuza uquqaba maqondana nomthelela. Omunye wemiyalezo evelele kakhulu wawuthi; "Hhayi-ke sisesimweni esihle sonyaka, futhi-ke, lesi kungaba yisikhathi esihle sokuthatha ezinye izivumelwano" Er… Kulungile..noma yini ..
I-UK FTSE 100 manje isihlehlise u-12.3% unyaka nonyaka, ngokuthola ukuthi yiziphi izivumelwano ezisetshenziswayo nokuthi yimiphi imikhakha ochwepheshe abangathanda ukuthi sigembule ngayo ukuqagela kwanoma ngubani. Mayelana nokuthi abahlaziyi bakhuluma ngobani njengezihlahla zemali yemilingo, ngemali esalayo elenga ukulungela 'ukutshala', nakho kuyimpicabadala. Ngaphandle kokuthi iningi kufanele lenze uHugh Hendry we-Eclectica Asset Management futhi libe nokufushane okukhulu ku-Hang Seng kusetshenziswa ama-funky algorithms, noma wenze uJohn Paulson bese ubona ukuphahlazeka kwemakethe ye-subprime mortgage.
Umthelela lokhu kulungiswa okuzoba nawo empeshenini yabantu abaningi abasebenza kanzima, osopolitiki bethu abahlale bebabiza ngokuthi “benza okulungile”, mkhulu kakhulu. Iqiniso lokuthi i-FTSE 100 manje seyicishe libe ngu-30% phansi kule minyaka eyishumi edlule ebiphakeme ngo-2007 kube neminikelo eminingi yempesheni (kubantu) engenamsebenzi kule minyaka eyishumi edlule. Kodwa-ke, amasu amakhulu wePonzi adaliwe, izimpesheni, ngeke aze agxekwe abezindaba abajwayelekile, lelo ibhokisi elilodwa likaPandora elizohlala livaliwe ngokuqinile uma lingena esitobhini somsebenzi wethu.
Okwamanje iningi liyakwemukela ukuthi ukululama okungenamsebenzi kwakungeke kutholakale, ngaphandle uma impumelelo, ngokwesibonelo i-USA, izolinganiswa ngokusebenzisa imali engango- $ 1.3 trillion nokuphatha ukugcina ukungasebenzi kuntanta ku-9%. Amazinga angenakubalwa wokutakulwa nokusekelwa e-USA, kanye ne-zirp, kudale umhlangano wezimakethe zebhere esesike sabhekana nawo kusukela ngonyaka ka-2010. umbuzo omkhulu oqhubekela phambili, ucabanga, futhi kuwumbono omkhulu, ukuthi lezi zinkinga azingeni esigabeni esisha esiyingozi ngokwengeziwe. Uma izimakethe zibuyela esimweni esiphakeme sika-2012, noma kumazinga akamuva kaJan 2007, manje iningi liyakwamukela ukuthi noma yikuphi 'ukubuyiswa' kungathengwa ngesikhathi esabolekiwe esilingana nosayizi wabatakuli 'abasha' ngemali ethe xaxa yokudala.
Ngaphandle kwezindaba ezinhle zokuthi i-troika ne-EU babonakala beqeda ukuncoma izixazululo zabo kuze kube yisixazululo esithembekile, i-rally yemakethe esekugcineni yabhekana ne-USA, okwaholela ekutheni i-SPX ivale u-2.2% (njengoba yehliswe ngenani elifanayo isigaba esisodwa ngeseshini), asizange sidlulele ezimakethe zase-Asia, i-Nikkei yavala u-0.86% kwathi i-Hang Seng yavala u-3.4%. Inkomba yaseHong Kong manje sehle ngonyaka omkhulu wama-28.22% ngonyaka. Asethembe ukuthi izakhamizi zaseHong Kong nabahola impesheni abazithathanga izeluleko zezihlakaniphi zabo bazama ukukhetha ezansi emakethe yabo enkulu, noma mhlawumbe balandela i-Eclectica ..
Izinga lokuthenga ngesikweletu lase-Italy linqunywe yi-Moody's Investors Service okokuqala ngqa cishe eminyakeni engamashumi amabili izolo kusihlwa ngezikhalazo zokuthi ukukhula okubuthaka okungapheli kwe-Italy kuzokwenza kube nzima ukunciphisa isikweletu sesibili ngobukhulu esifundeni. I-Moody yehlise isilinganiso sama-Italy amazinga amathathu aya ku-A2 kusuka ku-Aa2, ngombono ongemuhle. Lesi senzo siza ngemuva kokuthi iStandard & Poor yehlise isithunzi e-Italy ngoSepthemba 20 okokuqala ngqa eminyakeni emihlanu. I-Italy yagcina ukunqanyulwa ngabakwaMoody's ngoMeyi 1993. Kodwa-ke, okubadinisa kakhulu ukusikisela kukaMoody abangakakuqedi ngokushiswa kwabo nokusha.
Zonke kodwa izingqungqulu ezisendaweni enamandla kakhulu e-euro kungenzeka zibhekane nengcindezi engemihle ekulinganisweni kwazo. Ngenxa yalokho, uMoody ulindele amazwe ambalwa ngaphansi kwe-AAA ukuthi agcine izilinganiso eziphezulu, azikho izingcindezi ezisheshayo ezingadala ukwehliselwa phansi kwamazwe alinganiswe ne-AAA.
Ama-indices aseYurophu asethole namhlanje ekuseni, i-STOXX njengamanje inyuke ngo-2.1%, i-UK FTSE inyuke ngo-1.73%, i-CAC inyuke ngo-2.41% kwathi i-DAX yona yenyuka ngo-1.94%. I-Brent crude ifinyelela ku- $ 166 emgqonyeni negolide liphansi ngama- $ 22 i-ounce. Ikusasa lokulingana kwansuku zonke le-SPX okwamanje liphansi cishe ngo-0.5%. I-euro ichithe iningi lenzuzo yayo encane uma iqhathaniswa nedola ngemuva kokuthengiswa okukhulu okutholwe kulezi zinsuku ezimbalwa ezedlule. Iqhubekile nokwazisa ngokuqhathanisa neSwitzerland njengoba inesitayela esihle kakhulu uma kuqhathaniswa nedola ne-yen. Idola lase-Aussie selikhuphukile liqhathaniswa nedola laseMelika ekuhwebeni ebusuku kakhulu.
Ukukhishwa kwedatha okukhulu okungathinta imizwa ekuvulweni kweseshini yaseNew York noma ezungeze lokhu kufaka okulandelayo;
12:00 US - MBA Izicelo Zokubolekwa Kwemali Sep
13:15 US - ADP Guqula Umsebenzi Septhemba
15:00 US - Inkomba Yokungakhiqizi ye-ISM Septhemba
Okuheha kakhulu isibalo sokuqashwa kwe-ADP ebesingalungile futhi esingathembekile sekwedlule isikhathi. Ucwaningo lweBloomberg lwabahlaziyi lubikezela ukwanda kwama-70,000, uma kuqhathaniswa nokukhuphuka kwenyanga edlule kwe-91,000. Kungaba khona ukulungiswa okubuyekeziwe kuka-Agasti okuqukethwe ngaphakathi kokukhishwa kwedatha. Inkomba ye-ISM ingathinta imizwa, njengokufundwa okuningana inani elingaphezulu kwama-50 libhekwa njengelifanele. Abahlaziyi abacwaningwe yiBloomberg bakhombise ukulindelwa okuphakathi kuka-52.8, uma kuqhathaniswa nezinga lenyanga edlule lika-53.3.
iziphakamiso zemakethe zangaphambiliukulungiswa kwemaketheukwehla kwamandla omnotho
« Ngabe Inkukhu Engenakhanda YaseTroika Iwela Nini Endaweni Yokusindisa? Abagijimi bakaDexia Midnight »