Okthoba 5 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-7919 • 2 Amazwana e Deutschland über alles, noma usihola ngomhubhe oyimpumputhe?
Zingaba yini izindaba ezinkulu kakhulu maqondana nenkinga eqhubekayo ye-Eurozone? Asikhulumi ngokungahambi kahle eGrisi lapha, noma i-troika ekugcineni ithumela umusi omhlophe uphume ngoshimula ovela eVatican yabo eyimfihlo njengesiphephelo njengoba bedlala inguqulo yabo yomhlangano weKholeji lamaKhadinali ngomhlangano wokukhetha upapa omusha, (wokutakula). Kuthiwani ngokuqhunyiswa kwebhomu lomhlaba langempela. Nayi eyodwa, iGermany ishiya i-Euro. Impela lokho bekungacabangeki uma kubhekwa izindleko ezingenakulinganiswa nomzamo wobuhlakani obusekele ukwakhiwa kwamazwe ahlangene aseYurophu kule minyaka eyishumi edlule noma ngaphezulu? Akunjalo ngokusho kwe-USA hegemonic hyper power complex ..
Ubuhlakani obamukelekayo ngukuthi iphrojekthi ye-Euro ingaphezu kwenhlangano yezimali, sihlala sikhunjuzwa ukuthi “yiprojekthi yezepolitiki” yingakho iningi lamazwe ayishumi nesikhombisa aseYurophu azibophezele kwi-Euro angakwazi futhi ngeke ahoxe. Kodwa-ke, ingabe sizofika isikhathi lapho uhulumeni wobumbano waseJalimane 'enza izibalo' futhi afinyelele esiphethweni sokuthi le nkinga ifinyelele eqophelweni eliphezulu kwezomnotho kangangokuthi inentshisekelo yokuzisusa kulo mshini, (kusetshenziswa lelo binzana elifakiwe manje isichazamazwi sethu), “ngendlela ehlelekile”? Esikhundleni sokwamukela umcabango wokuthi iJalimane ayikwazi noma ngeke ibe namuntu onegunya noma ngobuchwepheshe obuthile empeleni izinciphisile izinombolo? Kunenqwaba yosopolitiki abangena esikhaleni esingakwesokudla salokho abakubona kuwuhlelo olukhulu lobusoshiyali oluzojabulisa i-Euroland futhi ikakhulukazi ukwehluleka kwemali ye-euro, akukho okungaphezu kwephiko langakwesokudla elifakwe ngokujulile kuhulumeni wase-USA kuzo zonke izintambo zalo nezigaba zalo.
Kunabahlaziyi abaningana abanegunya ababonakala bewuphikisa kanzima umbono wokuthi iGerman ingaphuma kwi-Euro, ikakhulukazi uPippa Malmgren ophakamisa ukuthi ekujuleni kwenhliziyo yabo iJalimane isifikile esiteji imishini yokunyathelisa ithuliswa phansi futhi ilungele hamba. Mhlawumbe angasinika inkomba ye-Google maps? Akukho ndawo ekuphawuleni kwakhe lapho abala khona amagama athi "ibhala lamasondo" noma "i-Weimar republic". Uma ngabe le mbono ihlonishwa, ingabe iyasukuma ihlolisiswe noma, (ivumela uzungu ukuba lundize okwesikhashana), iJalimane iye yakhungatheka ngenxa yokuntuleka kwezixazululo ezithembekile ezibekwe yi-ECB, i-EU kanye ne-troika edala lokho Ububi obuthile buthathwe njengesilingo esifanelekile ekugcineni sokukhuthaza ukuthatha izinqumo ezinqumayo, noma ngabe kunesizathu esizwakalayo sokundiza kwakhe kite?
Umlando kaNkk Malmgren ukhala ngokuthembeka. Usebenze njengomeluleki wemakethe yezimali eWhite House nakuMkhandlu Kazwelonke Wezomnotho kusuka ngo-2001-2002, lapho ayephethe khona izindaba zezimakethe zezimali. Wasungula iMalmgren neNkampani, eLondon, eNgilandi ngo-2000 futhi phambilini wayeyiPhini leNhloko yeGlobal Strategy e-UBS kanye neChief Currency Strategist for Bankers Trust. Uhole ibhizinisi leGlobal Investment Management leBankers Trust e-Asia. Une-BA evela eMount Vernon College kanye neM.Sc. kanye ne-Ph.D. kusuka eLondon School of Economics. Uqedele uHarvard Program on National Security. Isithangami Sezomnotho Emhlabeni saqamba uDkt Malmgren uMholi Womhlaba Wonke Wakusasa ngonyaka wezi-2000. Uphinde abe yilungu loMkhandlu Wezobudlelwano Namazwe Asezweni, iChatham House, i-Economic Club yaseNew York kanye ne-Institute for International Strategic Security.
Mhlawumbe isambulo esimangaza kakhulu kwi-cv yakhe ubulungu bakhe boMkhandlu Wezangaphandle. Naphezu kokuqanjwa kwawo ngokuvumelanayo lo 'mkhandlu' ukhona ukuthuthukisa ubungqingili base-USA ngawodwana, ngakho-ke imibono kaNks. Malmgren akuyona eyeyesazi sezomnotho esithanda ukwazi, iCFR ihlale inezinhloso. Yize ngaphambili bekungakufihli ngokuphelele ukwaziwa kwakhe manje kuzokwanda, futhi singalindela ukuzwa okuningi emasontweni nasezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezizayo njengoba iCFR isebenzisa isikhala sayo semidiya ukufaka ibhuthi kwi-Euro. Ngabe i-USA izosizakala ngokubhidlika kwe-euro, ishiye isimo sayo semali ebekiwe cishe singashintshi? Ukuwa kwe-Euro kuzohlinzeka nge-valve yokukhipha ingcindezi kumlawuli wase-USA. kusuka ezinkomba ezimbili; okokuqala ukuba umcimbi omkhulu kangaka kuzonikeza i-USA admin carte blanche ukuthi isethe kabusha inqubomgomo yayo yezezimali neyezimali emuva. Okwesibili, bona (abaphathi base-USA.) Basebenzisa iqhinga labo abalithandayo lesikhathi sokudala 'i-bogey mania' ukunqanda ukunakwa ekuphathweni kwabo ngendlela esezingeni lomhlaba eminyakeni eyishumi edlule.
Njengephepha lokuqhubeka kuzothakazelisa ukubuka ukuthi zingaki izibikezelo zikaNks Malmgren ezenzeka ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezizayo uma kungenjalo iminyaka. Kungenzeka kudlule isigaba sesithathu lapho osomnotho abaningi abahlonishwayo bekholelwa ukuthi iphutha laseGrisi lizonikeza ithuba elihle kuma-Euroland wonke ukuthola indlu yezezimali ukuze i-Euro inyuke kakhulu uma iqhathaniswa nedola? Nazi 'izindaba' zakhe nentuthuko ayilindele ezinsukwini nasemasontweni azayo:
- IGrisi iyazenzakalela
- IJalimane iyawavikela amabhange aseJalimane kepha amanye amazwe awakwazi ukwenza okufanayo ngaleyo ndlela asheshe aqumbe ukwehluleka okubusayo okuningi noma ukwehluleka kwamabhange, konke okungaholela enkingeni yokukhokha ohlelweni lwebhange lomhlaba jikelele.
- Ama-derivatives asengcupheni ikakhulukazi yokusebenza nokusebenza.
- I-Euro iwela enanini ikakhulukazi uma liqhathaniswa nedola laseMelika.
- AmaJalimane amemezela ukuthi baphinde baletha i-Deutschmark. Sebevele ba-oda imali entsha futhi bacela ukuthi amaphrinta asheshe.
- I-Euro iwela kakhulu kunoma yiziphi izindaba zokuthi iJalimane iyahoxa kwi-Euro.
- Ukuxabana kwezomthetho kuqala mayelana nokuba semthethweni kwesinqumo saseJalimane. Ukulungiswa kuthatha iminyaka.
- IGermany igcizelela ukuthi i-Euro iyaqhubeka nokuba khona noma ingasayisebenzisi.
- Bagcizelela ukuthi ubumbano lwaseYurophu luzoqhubeka futhi basikisela izinsimbi zomthetho ezintsha zokuqinisa Ubumbano lwaseYurophu kubandakanya Izivumelwano ezintsha ze-EU.
i-eurozonegermanyI-pippa malmgren
« Abagijimi bakaDexia Midnight IBlack Swan, Ukungasebenzi kanye nokungaziwa »
I-Deutschland über alles, noma usihola ngomgwaqo ongaboni?
Okthoba 5 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-7919 • 2 Amazwana e Deutschland über alles, noma usihola ngomhubhe oyimpumputhe?
Zingaba yini izindaba ezinkulu kakhulu maqondana nenkinga eqhubekayo ye-Eurozone? Asikhulumi ngokungahambi kahle eGrisi lapha, noma i-troika ekugcineni ithumela umusi omhlophe uphume ngoshimula ovela eVatican yabo eyimfihlo njengesiphephelo njengoba bedlala inguqulo yabo yomhlangano weKholeji lamaKhadinali ngomhlangano wokukhetha upapa omusha, (wokutakula). Kuthiwani ngokuqhunyiswa kwebhomu lomhlaba langempela. Nayi eyodwa, iGermany ishiya i-Euro. Impela lokho bekungacabangeki uma kubhekwa izindleko ezingenakulinganiswa nomzamo wobuhlakani obusekele ukwakhiwa kwamazwe ahlangene aseYurophu kule minyaka eyishumi edlule noma ngaphezulu? Akunjalo ngokusho kwe-USA hegemonic hyper power complex ..
Ubuhlakani obamukelekayo ngukuthi iphrojekthi ye-Euro ingaphezu kwenhlangano yezimali, sihlala sikhunjuzwa ukuthi “yiprojekthi yezepolitiki” yingakho iningi lamazwe ayishumi nesikhombisa aseYurophu azibophezele kwi-Euro angakwazi futhi ngeke ahoxe. Kodwa-ke, ingabe sizofika isikhathi lapho uhulumeni wobumbano waseJalimane 'enza izibalo' futhi afinyelele esiphethweni sokuthi le nkinga ifinyelele eqophelweni eliphezulu kwezomnotho kangangokuthi inentshisekelo yokuzisusa kulo mshini, (kusetshenziswa lelo binzana elifakiwe manje isichazamazwi sethu), “ngendlela ehlelekile”? Esikhundleni sokwamukela umcabango wokuthi iJalimane ayikwazi noma ngeke ibe namuntu onegunya noma ngobuchwepheshe obuthile empeleni izinciphisile izinombolo? Kunenqwaba yosopolitiki abangena esikhaleni esingakwesokudla salokho abakubona kuwuhlelo olukhulu lobusoshiyali oluzojabulisa i-Euroland futhi ikakhulukazi ukwehluleka kwemali ye-euro, akukho okungaphezu kwephiko langakwesokudla elifakwe ngokujulile kuhulumeni wase-USA kuzo zonke izintambo zalo nezigaba zalo.
Kunabahlaziyi abaningana abanegunya ababonakala bewuphikisa kanzima umbono wokuthi iGerman ingaphuma kwi-Euro, ikakhulukazi uPippa Malmgren ophakamisa ukuthi ekujuleni kwenhliziyo yabo iJalimane isifikile esiteji imishini yokunyathelisa ithuliswa phansi futhi ilungele hamba. Mhlawumbe angasinika inkomba ye-Google maps? Akukho ndawo ekuphawuleni kwakhe lapho abala khona amagama athi "ibhala lamasondo" noma "i-Weimar republic". Uma ngabe le mbono ihlonishwa, ingabe iyasukuma ihlolisiswe noma, (ivumela uzungu ukuba lundize okwesikhashana), iJalimane iye yakhungatheka ngenxa yokuntuleka kwezixazululo ezithembekile ezibekwe yi-ECB, i-EU kanye ne-troika edala lokho Ububi obuthile buthathwe njengesilingo esifanelekile ekugcineni sokukhuthaza ukuthatha izinqumo ezinqumayo, noma ngabe kunesizathu esizwakalayo sokundiza kwakhe kite?
Umlando kaNkk Malmgren ukhala ngokuthembeka. Usebenze njengomeluleki wemakethe yezimali eWhite House nakuMkhandlu Kazwelonke Wezomnotho kusuka ngo-2001-2002, lapho ayephethe khona izindaba zezimakethe zezimali. Wasungula iMalmgren neNkampani, eLondon, eNgilandi ngo-2000 futhi phambilini wayeyiPhini leNhloko yeGlobal Strategy e-UBS kanye neChief Currency Strategist for Bankers Trust. Uhole ibhizinisi leGlobal Investment Management leBankers Trust e-Asia. Une-BA evela eMount Vernon College kanye neM.Sc. kanye ne-Ph.D. kusuka eLondon School of Economics. Uqedele uHarvard Program on National Security. Isithangami Sezomnotho Emhlabeni saqamba uDkt Malmgren uMholi Womhlaba Wonke Wakusasa ngonyaka wezi-2000. Uphinde abe yilungu loMkhandlu Wezobudlelwano Namazwe Asezweni, iChatham House, i-Economic Club yaseNew York kanye ne-Institute for International Strategic Security.
Mhlawumbe isambulo esimangaza kakhulu kwi-cv yakhe ubulungu bakhe boMkhandlu Wezangaphandle. Naphezu kokuqanjwa kwawo ngokuvumelanayo lo 'mkhandlu' ukhona ukuthuthukisa ubungqingili base-USA ngawodwana, ngakho-ke imibono kaNks. Malmgren akuyona eyeyesazi sezomnotho esithanda ukwazi, iCFR ihlale inezinhloso. Yize ngaphambili bekungakufihli ngokuphelele ukwaziwa kwakhe manje kuzokwanda, futhi singalindela ukuzwa okuningi emasontweni nasezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezizayo njengoba iCFR isebenzisa isikhala sayo semidiya ukufaka ibhuthi kwi-Euro. Ngabe i-USA izosizakala ngokubhidlika kwe-euro, ishiye isimo sayo semali ebekiwe cishe singashintshi? Ukuwa kwe-Euro kuzohlinzeka nge-valve yokukhipha ingcindezi kumlawuli wase-USA. kusuka ezinkomba ezimbili; okokuqala ukuba umcimbi omkhulu kangaka kuzonikeza i-USA admin carte blanche ukuthi isethe kabusha inqubomgomo yayo yezezimali neyezimali emuva. Okwesibili, bona (abaphathi base-USA.) Basebenzisa iqhinga labo abalithandayo lesikhathi sokudala 'i-bogey mania' ukunqanda ukunakwa ekuphathweni kwabo ngendlela esezingeni lomhlaba eminyakeni eyishumi edlule.
Njengephepha lokuqhubeka kuzothakazelisa ukubuka ukuthi zingaki izibikezelo zikaNks Malmgren ezenzeka ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezizayo uma kungenjalo iminyaka. Kungenzeka kudlule isigaba sesithathu lapho osomnotho abaningi abahlonishwayo bekholelwa ukuthi iphutha laseGrisi lizonikeza ithuba elihle kuma-Euroland wonke ukuthola indlu yezezimali ukuze i-Euro inyuke kakhulu uma iqhathaniswa nedola? Nazi 'izindaba' zakhe nentuthuko ayilindele ezinsukwini nasemasontweni azayo:
i-eurozonegermanyI-pippa malmgren
« Abagijimi bakaDexia Midnight IBlack Swan, Ukungasebenzi kanye nokungaziwa »