Izimpi zemali; yiziphi izinzuzo (uma zikhona) abangazinikeza i-Forex Trader?
UMario Draghi, umongameli we-ECB, ngokusobala ukhathazekile ngokuthi i-euro iphezulu kakhulu uma iqhathaniswa ne-USD. I-EUR / USD isanda kwephula isibambo se-1.2500 okokuqala ngqa esikhathini esingaphezu kweminyaka emithathu, ukhathazekile ukuthi kuleli zinga kungalimaza ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe futhi kulimaze ukutakula (okuntekenteke) i-Eurozone ekuyo, okuyizinyanga ezimbili kuphela, mhlawumbe iminyaka emithathu ukusimama .
UMongameli uTrump umemezele ukuthi i-USD ibiphezulu kakhulu ekuqaleni kuka-2017, bese kuthi unobhala wakhe wezezimali uMnuchin axhumane nombango ofanayo, wokuthi imali ibiphezulu kakhulu, emhlanganweni we-WEF eDavos ngesonto eledlule. Ngemuva kwalokho uTrump waqala ukuphikisana nokuyala unobhala wakhe wezezimali ngokumemezela eDavos ukuthi ufuna ukuvikela idola.
I-BOJ ifuna i-yen ebuthakathaka ukuze iqhubeke nohlelo lwe-Abenomics, isize ukunqoba ukwehla kwamandla futhi iqhubeke nokukhula kwayo kwakamuva njengoba (yize kunamahemuhemu aphikisana nalokho), iJapan isesegunya lokukhiqiza, nemikhiqizo yasendlini sonke esiyithandayo, njengoba; ISony, iHonda, iSuzuki, iPanasonic njll. Zisasebenza phambili.
Ngokufanayo amaShayina adinga imali yabantu bawo i-renminbi (yuan) ukuze ihlale iphansi, ukuze aqhubeke nesikhathi sabo esimangalisayo sokuvuselelwa kokukhiqiza. Ngaphandle kwemizamo yabo emihle i-USD / CNH yehle isuka ku-circa 70.00 yaya ku-64.00 ngo-2017, okwenza ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe lapho kukalwa esikalini samazwe omhlaba, kubiza kakhulu.
Bese kuba khona inkinga kahulumeni wase-UK kanye neBhange laseNgilandi, abangakwazi ukwenza izinqumo zabo (kuya ngesimo sosuku) uma iphawundi ebuthakathaka ilungele ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe nokukhiqizwa (iphesenti elincane lomsebenzi wase-UK). Noma kubi emnothweni, ngesisekelo sokuthi njengoba umnotho oholwa isevisi / oqhutshwa ngumthengi uncike kakhulu ekuthengisweni kwempahla eshibhile, iphawundi elibuthakathaka lincamela…
Ngakho-ke lokho kungumbiko omfushane wokuthi sikuphi maqondana nalokho okungabizwa ngokuthi "izimpi zemali". Ngenhlanhla, kithina njengabahwebi bemali, konke lokhu: imizwa, idatha, ukuma kwezepolitiki kanye namamethrikhi wezomnotho, kufakwa 'ku-FX mincer' enkulu futhi kolunye uhlangothi kuza intengo yethu yamabhangqa emali amakhulu. Futhi ngenkathi sivuma ukuthi i-yuan ayibhalwanga ngokusemthethweni njengepheya enkulu yemali, uma kunikezwa ukuthi ayintanta ngokukhululekile / iguqulwe, noma imele inani lokuhweba njengebhangqa lemali uma kuqhathaniswa nama-majors, ithonya lalo nomthelela wazo ezimakethe zomhlaba jikelele nakwezimali ngababili esidayisa ngabo, ngeke kushaywe indiva.
Izimpi zemali, isibonelo esiphelele se-zero sum
Impikiswano ejwayelekile ukuthi akekho ozuzayo ezimpini zemali, futhi isiphetho esinjalo silungile; uma silinganisa noma yikuphi ukuzuza ngombono wezomnotho. Masisebenzise i-USA v China njengesibonelo. Ukwahlulela ngemibono eyahlukahlukene futhi ephikisanayo evela ekuphathweni kweRiphabhulikhi yase-USA kanye ne-FOMC / Fed, abenza izinqumo e-USA abakwazi ukwenza izingqondo zabo uma befuna idola eliphansi, noma eliphakeme uma liqhathaniswa ne-yuan. Isikhuthazo sisonke sibonakala njengokuswayipha ohlangothini nosongo olubhekiswe eChina; kukhona ukusola ukuthi uTrump umane nje ufuna i-approx. Ukusilela kokuhweba okungama- $ 500b neChina ngandlela thile, ngeke, kumele kuthengiswe phansi.
Kepha i-USA, ngenani elikhulu lokushoda kwezohwebo futhi njengezwe elifuna ukwenza kabusha ukuvuselelwa kokukhiqiza, lingaguqula isimo ngokuzumayo ngandlela thile liphoqelele i-yuan phansi? Abakwazi. Futhi njengoba umnotho uncike kakhulu ekungenisweni kwamanye amazwe, ukungeniswa kwamaShayina kungahle kushibhe kungene e-USA nge-yuan ebuthakathaka, kepha ukungeniswa kwamaShayina eChina kusuka e-USA kanye namafutha ngentengo yamadola, kuzoba kubiza kakhulu, ekugcineni kubangele ukuthi ukukhiqiza kubize kakhulu futhi uma Ukungeniswa kwamaShayina kubiza i-spike ngenxa ye-yuan ebuthakathaka, khona-ke umphumela we-ripple womhlaba ungaba nzima kakhulu. Umbono wokuthi amaShayina angahlelela i-yuan enamandla ukulimaza ukukhiqizwa futhi ekugcineni amandla abo okuthumela ngaphandle, ubonakala ungahambisani nezifiso zabo. Ngakho-ke i-USA ingayinqoba kanjani impi yemali neChina? Angeke zikwenze, kuyisibalo esingu-zero futhi kuyindlela yokuqinisekiswa ngokubambisana, ukubhujiswa komnotho.
Abathengisi bemali ye-Forex bangazuza ezimpini zemali
Kwesinye isikhathi, lapho sibheka isimo sezepolitiki esisanda kuchazwa, akumangazi ukuthi sibheka izimali namabili esincamela ukuwahweba futhi sizibuze ukuthi sikwazi kanjani ukuhweba nganoma iyiphi yazo. Noma singaba nelukuluku lokuthi kungani izimakethe ze-forex zingahambelani nokushaywa okubanzi esikubona kukho, ngokwesibonelo, izimakethe ze-crypto ezinjengeBTC / USD (bitcoin v dollar). Kepha ngaphandle kwalezi zinkinga ezinkulu nezithakazelisayo zezepolitiki nezomnotho; ukudonsa okukhulu kwempi okukhona phakathi kwesibonelo abathengi be-euro / dollar nabathengisi, izimakethe zethu ze-forex (ngezilinganiso ezithile) zizinzile ngendlela emangalisayo. Ububanzi bansuku zonke obungu-0.5% ku-GBP / USD buzobhekwa njengobubanzi, ibanga elingu-1% lingathathwa njengelingavamile, cishe imakethe yethu yengeniso engaba ngu- $ 5 trillion imile ngendlela emangalisayo. Ngaphandle kwamathonya amakhulu ashiwo ngaphambili kanye nokunye ukungaboni ngaso linye phakathi kwamandla amakhulu ezomnotho; I-USA, China, Japan kanye ne-Eurozone, lezi zinkinga zingakhulisa amathuba ethu kuphela.
Imvamisa singalungiswa futhi sithuthukise umbono womhubhe maqondana nokuhweba kwethu kwangaphambili, kepha-ke, kubalulekile ukuthi njengabahwebi singalahli umbono wokuthi yini esiyithengisayo nokuthi kungani ikhona. Izimakethe zethu ze-forex zikhona ngokuyinhloko ukuhlehlisa izindleko zokuthengiselana phakathi kwamabhizinisi aphesheya, akuzange kube khona ngathi abathengisi abathengisayo ukuze bathathe inzuzo emakethe. Uma sifunda noma sizwa ngomqondo "wezimpi zemali" kwimidiya ejwayelekile ezinyangeni ezizayo ke ngokwemvelo, njengabahwebi be-forex, ama-antenna ethu okuhweba ayodilika. Kepha lezi zimpi zemali zikhona ngezindlela eziningi emashumini ambalwa eminyaka futhi ngaphandle kokungabaza ziyathuthuka: izitayela, ukwenziwa kwemali kanye nokusebenza ebhizinisini lethu le-forex, okungaba kuhle ngamathuba ethu kuphela.
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