Eph 10 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-3297 • Amazwana Off ku-Amafutha Angahluziwe Nama-speculators aphazamisa Ukubuyiselwa Kwezomnotho
Esikhathini esingangonyaka noma esidlule, lapho ama-brokers nezomnotho bekhomba ukuthi kungenzeka sibhekane namanani ka-R100.00, wonke umuntu wanikina amakhanda wahleka. Uwoyela oqinisekisiwe ukhuphuke washaya u- $ 100.00 kaninginingi kodwa wawa futhi ngokushesha. Njengoba umhlaba usunomnotho, ukuwa kwesidingo, ukusetshenziswa kwemali yabathengi kwehla, ukwehla kokukhiqiza, uma umnotho nezidingo ziqinisile, intengo kawoyela kufanele yehle.
Lokhu kwakungaphambi kokuba abaqageli bakwazi ukuhlukanisa ukuthengwa kanye nokufunwa futhi bazidwebe ngokwabo becindezela amanani entengo aphezulu nangaphezulu. Ngokulandelayo kwafika iSentwasahlobo sase-Arabhu, nesiyaluyalu se-geopolitiki, ikakhulukazi eMpumalanga Ephakathi, kukhuphuka amanani entengo aluhlaza. UCrude wakhuphuka, ikakhulukazi neLibya, kepha abatshalizimali nabaqageli buthule, baphokophele amanani entengo aphezulu ngesikhathi sobunzima. Njengoba inkinga yehla, amanani awazange.
Ngisho nokuqinisekiswa okuvela emazweni e-OPEC ukuthi lokho kuthengiswa kuzotholakala kalula abaqageli basebenzise ukuvinjelwa kwe-Iranian ukubamba amanani entengo. Ukukhathazeka manje sekuya ngokwanda kukawoyela, njengoba intengo yomgqomo weBrent crude, uwoyela wokulinganisa waseLondon, ibuyele emuva ebangeni lama- $ 120 kulezi zinyanga ezisanda kwedlula. Yize kunamahloni kakhulu ngerekhodi lama- $ 147 elibekwe ngo-2008, lisephakeme ngokwanele ukuphakamisa amashiya.
Ucwaningo olusha lwabahlaziyi beCredit Suisse, olubizwa ngentokozo ngokuthi Kufanele Sikhathazeke Kanjani? okushiwo:
Njengoba intengo kawoyela weBrent inyukile, ngesizathu esizwakalayo intengo kawoyela isiphonsele inselelo iGrisi njengobungozi bomsila emakethe yezimali
Umbono ojwayelekile ngukuthi intengo kawoyela iqhutshwa yindaba yokuphakelwa okwamanje, ikakhulukazi ukuphazamiseka kokukhishwa kwe-Iran njengoba iphikisana neNtshonalanga ngohlelo lwayo lwenuzi. Ithimba leCredit Suisse licabanga ukuthi ngenkathi i-Iran idlala indima, ayishayeli ngentengo encane kunokucabanga, ithi ukukhuphuka kwentengo kawoyela kumayelana nezisekelo eziqinile zemakethe.
Ngasohlangothini lwezidingo, izimakethe ezisafufusa ziyaqina futhi umnotho waseNtshonalanga othuthukile ubonakala uphuma.
Khonamanjalo, eminyakeni emibili edlule izinkampani ziye zehla obekuyizinhlu ezinkulu zikawoyela, ngenkathi ukukhula kokutholakala kokudla kungakaqali ngokuqinile ku-2012, yize iLibya iqale ukuthekelisa uwoyela futhi kulandela ukuxokozela okwabonwa lapho ngonyaka odlule.
Kalula nje, awekho uwoyela omningi otholakalela kalula emakethe ukuhlinzeka ngesibambiso lapho kushaqeka ukulethwa. Ukwesaba ukuthi amanani kawoyela angakhuphuka uma kungabakhona okunye ukuphazamiseka kokuphakelwa kokuthengiswayo noma izinto ezivela e-Iran zehle njengoba sekuqiniswa unswinyo.
Uma kunjalo, bekuzokwenzekani? Intengo kawoyela ephezulu ithambekele ekwehliseni ukukhula, ngoba yenza izindleko zokwenza ibhizinisi nempilo yansuku zonke ziphakame kuzo zombili izinkampani kanye nomthengi - ungazicabanga njengenkokhelo eyengeziwe ekhokhiswa emisebenzini yabo. E-US, ukukhuphuka kwephesenti elilodwa kwepompo kaphethiloli kucatshangwa ukuthi kungeze ngaphezulu kancane kuka- $ 1bn emalini ekhokhwa ngophethiloli yemindeni yase-US, kucatshangwa ukuthi abayeki ukunciphisa ukushayela kwabo.
Umphumela wamandla emali ungaba namandla amakhulu kangangokuba intengo kawoyela ephezulu esikhathini eside ingafakazela ukwehla kwamandla emali, lokho kungumthelela wayo omubi ekukhuleni komnotho.
Vele, amanye amazwe nezinkampani ziyahlomula ngokwenyuka kwamanani entengo, njengoba zijabulela imali ephakeme. Inkinga ukuthi amazwe abezosizakala ngokuvamile asevele akhuphuke kakhulu. Lawa ngawamandla amakhulu omnotho asafufusa anjengeSaudi Arabia, iBrazil nokunye okunjalo, yize iCanada neAustralia kuyizinto ezehlukile eNtshonalanga kulo mthetho. Banobubanzi obuncane bokuthi umkhiqizo ukhule futhi abaningi sebevele basebenzisa amathuluzi wenqubomgomo njengamazinga aphezulu wenzalo ukuzama ukugcina ukukhula ngejubane eliphephile futhi elizinzile.
Khonamanjalo, ukukhuphuka kwentengo kawoyela kuzothinta abathengi kanzima kulezo zomnotho endaweni entekenteke, njengeJapan ne-US.
Ngamagama alula - uma ifika noma nini maduzane, inani lentengo kawoyela lingalimaza ngaphezu kwalokho obekufanele ukwenze. Amaminithi omhlangano wokugcina we-Federal Reserve FOMC afake izimbungulu zegolide ku-spin ngesonto eledlule. Babalule ukuthi ukwehliswa okuthe xaxa kwamanani kuyokwenzeka kuphela uma ukukhula komnotho wase-US kwehla noma ukwehla kwamandla emali kuhlala ngaphansi kuka-2pc. Idola lasukuma kwawa igolide.
Lokhu kusho ukuthi ithemba le-QE3, elingahle libe nentengo yegolide, manje seliphansi. Lezi zinkulumo zibukeka ziphikisana nalokho uBen Bernanke, usihlalo weFed, akusho enkulumweni yakhe emasontweni amabili edlule, lapho imakethe ibona ikhulisa amathuba eQE3.
Nakulokhu futhi, osomabhange kanye nabezimali babheke ibhange eliphakathi nokuncishiswa kwemali kwezimo zenzuzo, okungavumeli isizathu sokuthi iFed inikeze i-QE3. Abaningi balaba bantu abasebenza emabhange nakubarhwebi baba yisithiyo ekululameni; laba bacabangi sebeqala ukuba ngabashokobezi bezezimali.
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Amafutha Angahluziwe Nabaqambi Baphazamisa Ukubuyiselwa Kwezomnotho
Eph 10 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-3297 • Amazwana Off ku-Amafutha Angahluziwe Nama-speculators aphazamisa Ukubuyiselwa Kwezomnotho
Esikhathini esingangonyaka noma esidlule, lapho ama-brokers nezomnotho bekhomba ukuthi kungenzeka sibhekane namanani ka-R100.00, wonke umuntu wanikina amakhanda wahleka. Uwoyela oqinisekisiwe ukhuphuke washaya u- $ 100.00 kaninginingi kodwa wawa futhi ngokushesha. Njengoba umhlaba usunomnotho, ukuwa kwesidingo, ukusetshenziswa kwemali yabathengi kwehla, ukwehla kokukhiqiza, uma umnotho nezidingo ziqinisile, intengo kawoyela kufanele yehle.
Lokhu kwakungaphambi kokuba abaqageli bakwazi ukuhlukanisa ukuthengwa kanye nokufunwa futhi bazidwebe ngokwabo becindezela amanani entengo aphezulu nangaphezulu. Ngokulandelayo kwafika iSentwasahlobo sase-Arabhu, nesiyaluyalu se-geopolitiki, ikakhulukazi eMpumalanga Ephakathi, kukhuphuka amanani entengo aluhlaza. UCrude wakhuphuka, ikakhulukazi neLibya, kepha abatshalizimali nabaqageli buthule, baphokophele amanani entengo aphezulu ngesikhathi sobunzima. Njengoba inkinga yehla, amanani awazange.
Ngisho nokuqinisekiswa okuvela emazweni e-OPEC ukuthi lokho kuthengiswa kuzotholakala kalula abaqageli basebenzise ukuvinjelwa kwe-Iranian ukubamba amanani entengo. Ukukhathazeka manje sekuya ngokwanda kukawoyela, njengoba intengo yomgqomo weBrent crude, uwoyela wokulinganisa waseLondon, ibuyele emuva ebangeni lama- $ 120 kulezi zinyanga ezisanda kwedlula. Yize kunamahloni kakhulu ngerekhodi lama- $ 147 elibekwe ngo-2008, lisephakeme ngokwanele ukuphakamisa amashiya.
Ucwaningo olusha lwabahlaziyi beCredit Suisse, olubizwa ngentokozo ngokuthi Kufanele Sikhathazeke Kanjani? okushiwo:
Njengoba intengo kawoyela weBrent inyukile, ngesizathu esizwakalayo intengo kawoyela isiphonsele inselelo iGrisi njengobungozi bomsila emakethe yezimali
Umbono ojwayelekile ngukuthi intengo kawoyela iqhutshwa yindaba yokuphakelwa okwamanje, ikakhulukazi ukuphazamiseka kokukhishwa kwe-Iran njengoba iphikisana neNtshonalanga ngohlelo lwayo lwenuzi. Ithimba leCredit Suisse licabanga ukuthi ngenkathi i-Iran idlala indima, ayishayeli ngentengo encane kunokucabanga, ithi ukukhuphuka kwentengo kawoyela kumayelana nezisekelo eziqinile zemakethe.
Ngasohlangothini lwezidingo, izimakethe ezisafufusa ziyaqina futhi umnotho waseNtshonalanga othuthukile ubonakala uphuma.
Khonamanjalo, eminyakeni emibili edlule izinkampani ziye zehla obekuyizinhlu ezinkulu zikawoyela, ngenkathi ukukhula kokutholakala kokudla kungakaqali ngokuqinile ku-2012, yize iLibya iqale ukuthekelisa uwoyela futhi kulandela ukuxokozela okwabonwa lapho ngonyaka odlule.
Kalula nje, awekho uwoyela omningi otholakalela kalula emakethe ukuhlinzeka ngesibambiso lapho kushaqeka ukulethwa. Ukwesaba ukuthi amanani kawoyela angakhuphuka uma kungabakhona okunye ukuphazamiseka kokuphakelwa kokuthengiswayo noma izinto ezivela e-Iran zehle njengoba sekuqiniswa unswinyo.
Uma kunjalo, bekuzokwenzekani? Intengo kawoyela ephezulu ithambekele ekwehliseni ukukhula, ngoba yenza izindleko zokwenza ibhizinisi nempilo yansuku zonke ziphakame kuzo zombili izinkampani kanye nomthengi - ungazicabanga njengenkokhelo eyengeziwe ekhokhiswa emisebenzini yabo. E-US, ukukhuphuka kwephesenti elilodwa kwepompo kaphethiloli kucatshangwa ukuthi kungeze ngaphezulu kancane kuka- $ 1bn emalini ekhokhwa ngophethiloli yemindeni yase-US, kucatshangwa ukuthi abayeki ukunciphisa ukushayela kwabo.
Umphumela wamandla emali ungaba namandla amakhulu kangangokuba intengo kawoyela ephezulu esikhathini eside ingafakazela ukwehla kwamandla emali, lokho kungumthelela wayo omubi ekukhuleni komnotho.
Vele, amanye amazwe nezinkampani ziyahlomula ngokwenyuka kwamanani entengo, njengoba zijabulela imali ephakeme. Inkinga ukuthi amazwe abezosizakala ngokuvamile asevele akhuphuke kakhulu. Lawa ngawamandla amakhulu omnotho asafufusa anjengeSaudi Arabia, iBrazil nokunye okunjalo, yize iCanada neAustralia kuyizinto ezehlukile eNtshonalanga kulo mthetho. Banobubanzi obuncane bokuthi umkhiqizo ukhule futhi abaningi sebevele basebenzisa amathuluzi wenqubomgomo njengamazinga aphezulu wenzalo ukuzama ukugcina ukukhula ngejubane eliphephile futhi elizinzile.
Khonamanjalo, ukukhuphuka kwentengo kawoyela kuzothinta abathengi kanzima kulezo zomnotho endaweni entekenteke, njengeJapan ne-US.
Ngamagama alula - uma ifika noma nini maduzane, inani lentengo kawoyela lingalimaza ngaphezu kwalokho obekufanele ukwenze. Amaminithi omhlangano wokugcina we-Federal Reserve FOMC afake izimbungulu zegolide ku-spin ngesonto eledlule. Babalule ukuthi ukwehliswa okuthe xaxa kwamanani kuyokwenzeka kuphela uma ukukhula komnotho wase-US kwehla noma ukwehla kwamandla emali kuhlala ngaphansi kuka-2pc. Idola lasukuma kwawa igolide.
Lokhu kusho ukuthi ithemba le-QE3, elingahle libe nentengo yegolide, manje seliphansi. Lezi zinkulumo zibukeka ziphikisana nalokho uBen Bernanke, usihlalo weFed, akusho enkulumweni yakhe emasontweni amabili edlule, lapho imakethe ibona ikhulisa amathuba eQE3.
Nakulokhu futhi, osomabhange kanye nabezimali babheke ibhange eliphakathi nokuncishiswa kwemali kwezimo zenzuzo, okungavumeli isizathu sokuthi iFed inikeze i-QE3. Abaningi balaba bantu abasebenza emabhange nakubarhwebi baba yisithiyo ekululameni; laba bacabangi sebeqala ukuba ngabashokobezi bezezimali.
amafutha angcolilefomci-iran
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