UNovemba 30 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-4813 • Amazwana Off Ekubhejeni Nge-Euro Collapse? Ungawubambi Umoya Wakho, Noma Uhwebe Ngesikhundla Sakho
Uma uke waba nezinto ezimbalwa ezimbi zokuhweba kamuva nje ungase ufune ukuphephisa umcabango wemiqondo ye-FX ngokusobala eyisikhwama esikhulu semali ehejiwe emhlabeni. Kube sobala esikhathini esiningi salo nyaka ukuthi lesi sikhwama se-hedge fund sibheja ukuthi 'amathila azokhala' uma ukuwa kwe-Euroland kuholela ekuweni kohlobo lwemali ye-Euro.
Ngaso sonke isikhathi i-euro ikhuphuka emzuliswaneni olandelayo wenkinga inhloko ye-hedge fund ishisa kakhulu ngaphansi kwekhola kanye nesikhathi somoya sinquma ukuthi i-Euro "isesimweni sokufa". Ngeshwa abazange bacabangele ngentando yezombusazwe yokugcina imali eyabiwe, noma iqiniso lokuthi i-greenback ayinakwa njengempahla ephephile futhi.
Nakuba idola liye labhekana nokwanda kwakamuva, ngokwenkomba enesisindo ye-Bloomberg, konke kungahlehliswa uma, noma cishe lapho, umzuliswano olandelayo we-Gargantuan Fed ephefumulelwe ukuncipha kwenani kwenzeka.
Bona (FX) bayinhlangano efuna ukuzuza ekubhujisweni kwe-Eurozone futhi ngenxa yalokho izinga lokuphila lezigidi, ngakho-ke ukungagodli umcabango (noma i-dime) kanye nokuba ngaphandle kozwelo kuyaqondakala. U-John Taylor, inhloko ye-FX concepts ilawula cishe amabhiliyoni ama-5 wamadola ukusuka eNew York, ubikezele izikhathi ezimbalwa kusukela ngo-2010 ukuthi i-euro izowela ekulinganeni uma iqhathaniswa nedola. Imali evamile ikhuphuke ngamaphesenti angu-0.1 yaya ku-$1.3333 ngo-10:50 ekuseni eNew York izolo.
Ngenyanga edlule ekhuluma neBloomberg FX Concepts wathi; “Okusiphatha kabi kakhulu ukuthi kufanele senze kahle emakethe yomhlaba enkenenkene.” Baphinde badalula engxoxweni ka-Okthoba eLondon ukuthi balahlekelwe ngamaphesenti ayi-12 kulo nyaka kanti impahla engaphansi kwabaphathi yehle ngaphezu kwengxenye yesithathu yaya ku-$5 billion isuka emalini efinyelela ku-$8 billion. “Senza kubi kakhulu.”
Kuyamangaza yini ukuthi abazange balindele izinga lokuzibophezela ukuze basindise imali ehlanganyelwe yezizwe eziyi-17? Ngisho noma inombono “ofiphele” ngenyunyana yemali esaphila esimweni sayo samanje, i-euro yamazwe angu-17 ihweba ngaphezu kwesilinganiso sayo sokuphila konke esingu-$1.2044 ngenxa yokuthengwa kwezikweletu yi-European Central Bank kanye nezikhungo zezezimali zaseYurophu ezibuyisela imali. UTaylor uphetha ngokwabelana “ngethemba” lakhe lekusasa elifiphele le-Eurozone nezigidi zezakhamizi zayo ukuze inkampani yakhe izuze kunoma yikuphi ukuwa.
Amabhange ancipha futhi athengisa yonke impahla yawo yaphesheya kwezilwandle futhi ayibuyisele e-Europe futhi lokho kusho ukuthi empeleni, kukhona umthengi ophikelelayo wama-euro, okuyizikhungo zabo zezimali. Umbono ufiphele, kodwa kuhlale kunethemba lokuthi lapho kuba mnyama, kulapho ohulumeni bezovuka benze okuthile.
Uhlolojikelele
Amasheya omhlaba wonke ehle okokuqala ezinsukwini ezintathu kanti ikusasa lesitoko sase-US lehla ngemva kokuncishiswa kwezilinganiso zezikweletu ze-Standard & Poor kubabolekisi abavela ku-Bank of America Corp. kuya ku-Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Ithusi namafutha ehlile. I-Stoxx Europe 600 Index yehle ngamaphesenti angu-1, ukwehla kokuqala ezinsukwini ezine. Ikusasa le-S&P 500 Index lehle ngamaphesenti angu-0.8. I-euro yenza buthaka ngamaphesenti angu-0.3 uma iqhathaniswa nedola futhi yehla ngamaphesenti angu-0.2 uma iqhathaniswa ne-yen. I-Copper yehle cishe ngamaphesenti angu-2.2 futhi uwoyela wehla ukusuka phezulu emavikini amabili eNew York. I-Dollar Index, elandelela uhlobo lwemali uma iqhathaniswa nozakwethu abahwebayo abayisithupha, ikhuphuke ngamaphesenti angu-0.4 ngemva kokuhlehla izinsuku ezimbili. I-euro yezizwe eziyi-17 yehle yaya ku-$1.3270 futhi ihweba ngo-103.53 yen, uma iqhathaniswa ne-103.77 izolo.
Uwoyela wehle wafinyelela kumaphesenti angu-0.8 waya ku-$98.96 umphongolo eNew York ngaphambi kokuhweba ngo-$99.09. I-Futures ikhuphuke izolo yafinyelela ezingeni eliphezulu kakhulu kusukela ngoNovemba 16 futhi inyuke ngamaphesenti angu-6.4 kule nyanga. Ikhopha yezinyanga ezintathu yehle ngamaphesenti angu-2 yaya ku-$7,342.25 ithani lemethrikhi eLondon.
Europe
Izinhloko zikahulumeni wase-Europe zihlangana ngoDisemba 9 eBrussels, eJalimane zifuna izinguquko zokuphatha ezizoqinisa ukuqiniswa kwemithetho yesabelomali. Lesi sinyathelo singenza kube lula ukuthi i-European Central Bank ibambe iqhaza elikhulu ekusekeleni amazwe ase-euro, ngokuthumela imali ebolekiwe nge-IMF, kusho izikhulu ezimbili ezijwayelene nalolu daba izolo.
U-Arnaud Mares, umhlaziyi kaMorgan Stanley, ubhale encwadini yocwaningo izolo;
Uma kwenzeka behluleka ukuletha uhlaka oluthembekile oluhlanganisa zombili lezi zilinganiso, singalindela ukuthi 'ukusebenza' okuqhubekayo kohulumeni namabhange kuzoshesha, futhi kufanele kwesatshwe kakhulu ukuthi ngeke kusamiswa. Imiphumela yezomnotho, yezenhlalakahle nepolitiki ingaba yinto engaqondakali. Ngakho-ke amasonto ambalwa alandelayo angumzuzu obalulekile emlandweni waseYurophu.
Nakuba abaholi bethi amandla azokwandisa ama-euro ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-440 (amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-584) ukufinyelela kwe-EFSF ku-1 trillion euros, isikhulu esiphezulu uKlaus Regling uthe "akunakwenzeka ukunikeza inombolo eyodwa" ukuze uthole amandla esikhwama.
Isithombe semakethe ngo-10:00am GMT (isikhathi sase-UK)
Izimakethe zase-Asia zehle ekuhwebeni kwasekuseni kwasekuseni i-Nikkei ivale ngo-0.51%, i-Hang Seng ivale ngo-1.46% kwathi i-CSI yehla ngo-3.34% futhi manje yehle ngo-19.62% unyaka nonyaka. I-ASX 200 ivale ngo-0.43%. Izinkomba ze-European bourse ziphinde zavela ezindaweni zazo zokuvula ezibuthakathaka. I-STOXX 50 okwamanje iphansi ngo-1.01%, i-UK FTSE yehle ngo-0.55%, i-CAC iphansi ngo-1.06%, i-DAX iphansi ngo-0.83% kanti i-MIB iphansi ngo-0.4%.
zezimali
I-euro yehle ngamaphesenti angu-0.3 kuya ku-$ 1.3284 ngo-8: 57 am isikhathi saseLondon ngemuva kokwehla ku-$ 1.3212 ngoNovemba 25, izinga elibuthakathaka kusukela ngo-Okthoba 4. Imali eyabiwe yehla ngamaphesenti angu-0.2 kuya ku-yen ye-103.57. I-yen ibishintshile kancane yaba ngu-78.01 idola ngalinye. I-euro yehle ngamaphesenti angu-4.2 uma iqhathaniswa nedola kanye namaphesenti angu-4.4 uma iqhathaniswa ne-yen kule nyanga njengoba ukuqagela ukuthi inkinga enkulu yezikweletu ibhebhetheka emazweni amakhulu inciphise isidingo sempahla yalesi sifunda.
Idola lizuze amaphesenti angu-0.3 namuhla, ngokusho kwe-Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, okuyenza ibe yinzuzo enkulu phakathi kwezinhlobo zemali zezizwe ezithuthukile ezingu-10. I-yen ithuthuke ngamaphesenti angu-0.2, futhi i-euro yenza buthaka ngamaphesenti angu-0.1.
Ukukhishwa kwekhalenda lezomnotho okungase kuthinte iseshini yokuhweba yantambama
12:00 US - Izicelo Zokubolekwa Kwezindlu ze-MBA 25 Nov
13:15 US – ADP Employment Change November
13:30 US – Ukukhiqiza Okungewona Owepulazi 3Q
13:30 US - Izindleko Zabasebenzi beYunithi 3Q
14:45 US - Chicago PMI Novemba
15:00 US - Ukuthengiswa Kwekhaya Okusalindile Okthoba
19:00 US - Incwadi kaFed's Beige Book
Okuphumayo okugqamayo kungaba izinombolo zokuqashwa kwe-ADP uma kubhekwa izibalo zabangewona amapulazi ngoLwesihlanu kanye nencwadi e-beige ye-Fed.
Inhlolovo ye-Bloomberg yabahlaziyi ibikezela isibalo sokunyuka kwemisebenzi engu-130,000, uma kuqhathaniswa nezingu-110,000 zangenyanga edlule.
Umbiko wencwadi e-beige uwusizo njengoba uvumela abatshalizimali ukuthi babone ukuthi yiluphi ulwazi amalungu e-FOMC azosekela kuso isinqumo sawo (futhi ulwazi cishe ngeke lube ngaphezu kwamasonto amabili ubudala). I-Beige Book ayinikezi ukuqonda emicabangweni yamalungu e-FOMC emnothweni, noma kunjalo; imane isho amaqiniso mayelana nomnotho ezifundeni ezihlukahlukene zase-US.
euroi-eurozonefx imiqondo
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Ukubheja Nge-Euro Collapse? Ungawubambi Umoya Wakho, Noma Uhwebe Ngesikhundla Sakho
UNovemba 30 • Amazwana eMakethe • Ukubukwa okungu-4813 • Amazwana Off Ekubhejeni Nge-Euro Collapse? Ungawubambi Umoya Wakho, Noma Uhwebe Ngesikhundla Sakho
Uma uke waba nezinto ezimbalwa ezimbi zokuhweba kamuva nje ungase ufune ukuphephisa umcabango wemiqondo ye-FX ngokusobala eyisikhwama esikhulu semali ehejiwe emhlabeni. Kube sobala esikhathini esiningi salo nyaka ukuthi lesi sikhwama se-hedge fund sibheja ukuthi 'amathila azokhala' uma ukuwa kwe-Euroland kuholela ekuweni kohlobo lwemali ye-Euro.
Ngaso sonke isikhathi i-euro ikhuphuka emzuliswaneni olandelayo wenkinga inhloko ye-hedge fund ishisa kakhulu ngaphansi kwekhola kanye nesikhathi somoya sinquma ukuthi i-Euro "isesimweni sokufa". Ngeshwa abazange bacabangele ngentando yezombusazwe yokugcina imali eyabiwe, noma iqiniso lokuthi i-greenback ayinakwa njengempahla ephephile futhi.
Nakuba idola liye labhekana nokwanda kwakamuva, ngokwenkomba enesisindo ye-Bloomberg, konke kungahlehliswa uma, noma cishe lapho, umzuliswano olandelayo we-Gargantuan Fed ephefumulelwe ukuncipha kwenani kwenzeka.
Bona (FX) bayinhlangano efuna ukuzuza ekubhujisweni kwe-Eurozone futhi ngenxa yalokho izinga lokuphila lezigidi, ngakho-ke ukungagodli umcabango (noma i-dime) kanye nokuba ngaphandle kozwelo kuyaqondakala. U-John Taylor, inhloko ye-FX concepts ilawula cishe amabhiliyoni ama-5 wamadola ukusuka eNew York, ubikezele izikhathi ezimbalwa kusukela ngo-2010 ukuthi i-euro izowela ekulinganeni uma iqhathaniswa nedola. Imali evamile ikhuphuke ngamaphesenti angu-0.1 yaya ku-$1.3333 ngo-10:50 ekuseni eNew York izolo.
Ngenyanga edlule ekhuluma neBloomberg FX Concepts wathi; “Okusiphatha kabi kakhulu ukuthi kufanele senze kahle emakethe yomhlaba enkenenkene.” Baphinde badalula engxoxweni ka-Okthoba eLondon ukuthi balahlekelwe ngamaphesenti ayi-12 kulo nyaka kanti impahla engaphansi kwabaphathi yehle ngaphezu kwengxenye yesithathu yaya ku-$5 billion isuka emalini efinyelela ku-$8 billion. “Senza kubi kakhulu.”
Kuyamangaza yini ukuthi abazange balindele izinga lokuzibophezela ukuze basindise imali ehlanganyelwe yezizwe eziyi-17? Ngisho noma inombono “ofiphele” ngenyunyana yemali esaphila esimweni sayo samanje, i-euro yamazwe angu-17 ihweba ngaphezu kwesilinganiso sayo sokuphila konke esingu-$1.2044 ngenxa yokuthengwa kwezikweletu yi-European Central Bank kanye nezikhungo zezezimali zaseYurophu ezibuyisela imali. UTaylor uphetha ngokwabelana “ngethemba” lakhe lekusasa elifiphele le-Eurozone nezigidi zezakhamizi zayo ukuze inkampani yakhe izuze kunoma yikuphi ukuwa.
Amabhange ancipha futhi athengisa yonke impahla yawo yaphesheya kwezilwandle futhi ayibuyisele e-Europe futhi lokho kusho ukuthi empeleni, kukhona umthengi ophikelelayo wama-euro, okuyizikhungo zabo zezimali. Umbono ufiphele, kodwa kuhlale kunethemba lokuthi lapho kuba mnyama, kulapho ohulumeni bezovuka benze okuthile.
Uhlolojikelele
Amasheya omhlaba wonke ehle okokuqala ezinsukwini ezintathu kanti ikusasa lesitoko sase-US lehla ngemva kokuncishiswa kwezilinganiso zezikweletu ze-Standard & Poor kubabolekisi abavela ku-Bank of America Corp. kuya ku-Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Ithusi namafutha ehlile. I-Stoxx Europe 600 Index yehle ngamaphesenti angu-1, ukwehla kokuqala ezinsukwini ezine. Ikusasa le-S&P 500 Index lehle ngamaphesenti angu-0.8. I-euro yenza buthaka ngamaphesenti angu-0.3 uma iqhathaniswa nedola futhi yehla ngamaphesenti angu-0.2 uma iqhathaniswa ne-yen. I-Copper yehle cishe ngamaphesenti angu-2.2 futhi uwoyela wehla ukusuka phezulu emavikini amabili eNew York. I-Dollar Index, elandelela uhlobo lwemali uma iqhathaniswa nozakwethu abahwebayo abayisithupha, ikhuphuke ngamaphesenti angu-0.4 ngemva kokuhlehla izinsuku ezimbili. I-euro yezizwe eziyi-17 yehle yaya ku-$1.3270 futhi ihweba ngo-103.53 yen, uma iqhathaniswa ne-103.77 izolo.
Uwoyela wehle wafinyelela kumaphesenti angu-0.8 waya ku-$98.96 umphongolo eNew York ngaphambi kokuhweba ngo-$99.09. I-Futures ikhuphuke izolo yafinyelela ezingeni eliphezulu kakhulu kusukela ngoNovemba 16 futhi inyuke ngamaphesenti angu-6.4 kule nyanga. Ikhopha yezinyanga ezintathu yehle ngamaphesenti angu-2 yaya ku-$7,342.25 ithani lemethrikhi eLondon.
Europe
Izinhloko zikahulumeni wase-Europe zihlangana ngoDisemba 9 eBrussels, eJalimane zifuna izinguquko zokuphatha ezizoqinisa ukuqiniswa kwemithetho yesabelomali. Lesi sinyathelo singenza kube lula ukuthi i-European Central Bank ibambe iqhaza elikhulu ekusekeleni amazwe ase-euro, ngokuthumela imali ebolekiwe nge-IMF, kusho izikhulu ezimbili ezijwayelene nalolu daba izolo.
U-Arnaud Mares, umhlaziyi kaMorgan Stanley, ubhale encwadini yocwaningo izolo;
Uma kwenzeka behluleka ukuletha uhlaka oluthembekile oluhlanganisa zombili lezi zilinganiso, singalindela ukuthi 'ukusebenza' okuqhubekayo kohulumeni namabhange kuzoshesha, futhi kufanele kwesatshwe kakhulu ukuthi ngeke kusamiswa. Imiphumela yezomnotho, yezenhlalakahle nepolitiki ingaba yinto engaqondakali. Ngakho-ke amasonto ambalwa alandelayo angumzuzu obalulekile emlandweni waseYurophu.
Nakuba abaholi bethi amandla azokwandisa ama-euro ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-440 (amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-584) ukufinyelela kwe-EFSF ku-1 trillion euros, isikhulu esiphezulu uKlaus Regling uthe "akunakwenzeka ukunikeza inombolo eyodwa" ukuze uthole amandla esikhwama.
Isithombe semakethe ngo-10:00am GMT (isikhathi sase-UK)
Izimakethe zase-Asia zehle ekuhwebeni kwasekuseni kwasekuseni i-Nikkei ivale ngo-0.51%, i-Hang Seng ivale ngo-1.46% kwathi i-CSI yehla ngo-3.34% futhi manje yehle ngo-19.62% unyaka nonyaka. I-ASX 200 ivale ngo-0.43%. Izinkomba ze-European bourse ziphinde zavela ezindaweni zazo zokuvula ezibuthakathaka. I-STOXX 50 okwamanje iphansi ngo-1.01%, i-UK FTSE yehle ngo-0.55%, i-CAC iphansi ngo-1.06%, i-DAX iphansi ngo-0.83% kanti i-MIB iphansi ngo-0.4%.
zezimali
I-euro yehle ngamaphesenti angu-0.3 kuya ku-$ 1.3284 ngo-8: 57 am isikhathi saseLondon ngemuva kokwehla ku-$ 1.3212 ngoNovemba 25, izinga elibuthakathaka kusukela ngo-Okthoba 4. Imali eyabiwe yehla ngamaphesenti angu-0.2 kuya ku-yen ye-103.57. I-yen ibishintshile kancane yaba ngu-78.01 idola ngalinye. I-euro yehle ngamaphesenti angu-4.2 uma iqhathaniswa nedola kanye namaphesenti angu-4.4 uma iqhathaniswa ne-yen kule nyanga njengoba ukuqagela ukuthi inkinga enkulu yezikweletu ibhebhetheka emazweni amakhulu inciphise isidingo sempahla yalesi sifunda.
Idola lizuze amaphesenti angu-0.3 namuhla, ngokusho kwe-Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, okuyenza ibe yinzuzo enkulu phakathi kwezinhlobo zemali zezizwe ezithuthukile ezingu-10. I-yen ithuthuke ngamaphesenti angu-0.2, futhi i-euro yenza buthaka ngamaphesenti angu-0.1.
Ukukhishwa kwekhalenda lezomnotho okungase kuthinte iseshini yokuhweba yantambama
12:00 US - Izicelo Zokubolekwa Kwezindlu ze-MBA 25 Nov
13:15 US – ADP Employment Change November
13:30 US – Ukukhiqiza Okungewona Owepulazi 3Q
13:30 US - Izindleko Zabasebenzi beYunithi 3Q
14:45 US - Chicago PMI Novemba
15:00 US - Ukuthengiswa Kwekhaya Okusalindile Okthoba
19:00 US - Incwadi kaFed's Beige Book
Okuphumayo okugqamayo kungaba izinombolo zokuqashwa kwe-ADP uma kubhekwa izibalo zabangewona amapulazi ngoLwesihlanu kanye nencwadi e-beige ye-Fed.
Inhlolovo ye-Bloomberg yabahlaziyi ibikezela isibalo sokunyuka kwemisebenzi engu-130,000, uma kuqhathaniswa nezingu-110,000 zangenyanga edlule.
Umbiko wencwadi e-beige uwusizo njengoba uvumela abatshalizimali ukuthi babone ukuthi yiluphi ulwazi amalungu e-FOMC azosekela kuso isinqumo sawo (futhi ulwazi cishe ngeke lube ngaphezu kwamasonto amabili ubudala). I-Beige Book ayinikezi ukuqonda emicabangweni yamalungu e-FOMC emnothweni, noma kunjalo; imane isho amaqiniso mayelana nomnotho ezifundeni ezihlukahlukene zase-US.
euroi-eurozonefx imiqondo
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