Njengoba iSanta Rally iqala ukugxila kakhulu, abathengisi basiza ukusunduza i-SPX iye ezindaweni eziphakeme, uwoyela ufinyelela phezulu eminyakeni emibili, kuyilapho izindawo zokuphepha eziphephile zincipha
Umhlangano ka-Santa Claus wawuvame ukufakwa esigabeni njengokukhuphuka kwentengo yezabelo ezivame ukwenzeka evikini lokugcina likaDisemba, oqhubeka kuze kube yizinsuku zokuqala zokuhweba zokuvulwa kukaJanuwari. Kodwa-ke, eminyakeni yamuva nje lo mhlangano uye wajabulela isikhathi eside kakhulu, ngokuvamile oqala ekuqaleni kukaDisemba futhi othatha cishe inyanga. Kunemibono eminingi mayelana nezimo; kusukela ekubeni nethemba lesizini kanye nokujabula okungenangqondo, noma thenga futhi ubambe abaphathi bezikhwama (abasebenza isikhathi eside), bengafisi ukuthengisa ngokulahlekelwa, okungase kube nomthelela omubi kumabhonasi abo onyaka.
Njengoba izimakethe zezezimali zase-USA zithatha umoya ngoLwesine (njengoba izimakethe bezivaliwe) ngenxa yeholide lokubonga, abahlaziyi abaningi baqale ukuzindla ngesikhathi nje lo mbuthano wamarekhodi, ogqugquzelwe ngenxa yesithembiso sabaphathi bakaTrump sokwehliswa okukhulu kwentela, uzogcina uphelile. Osomnotho abaningi abavamile basola ukuthi uma kuphela isizini yemali engenayo ngoNovemba, sizobona umkhondo wokuphakama kwemakethe kwakamuva. Kodwa ngamandla e-Santa Rally evamile kula masonto azayo ukuze aqhube amanani entengo ephakeme nakakhulu, konke ukubheja kuyacishwa lapho i-SPX, DJIA kanye ne-NASDAQ zingavala u-2017, njengoba i-SPX isivele ikhuphuke cishe ngo-20% YoY.
Njengoba abathengisi bezinto ezibonakalayo babika ukuthengisa okuqinile phakathi noLwesihlanu Olumnyama, abatshalizimali bazoba nombono wokuthi akubona nje kuphela abathengi ababuyelwe yi-swagger yabo kanye nokuzethemba, kodwa banemali engenayo eyanele elahlekayo, noma ikhono lokukhulisa amanani aphansi esikweletu, ukuze baqhubeke nokusekela umnotho cishe u-80. % incike ekusetshenzisweni kwemali komthengi. Ngokufanayo, ukubukela amanani ezimpahla ayakhuphuka; I-WTI ifinyelele eminyakeni emibili ephezulu ngesonto eledlule nge-Brent crude nayo eseduze nokwanda okunjalo, iphakamisa ukuthi izinjini zokukhula kokukhiqiza e-Europe, e-Asia naseNyakatho Melika zidubula kuwo wonke amasilinda.
Igolide lihlangabezane nesonto lapho intengo yensimbi eyigugu yehle ngendlela emangalisayo ngebanga elibanzi le-bearish kanye ne-bearish, mayelana nokuthi intengo ikhula kanjani kuleli sonto elizayo kuzoba umbono othakazelisayo. Intengo ilokhu yephula i-100 DMA ebalulekile yaya phansi (okubonakala sengathi isebenza njengosekelo lwesikhathi eside lobuchwepheshe), ukuze ilulame. Ngesinye isikhathi intengo (i-XAU / USD) ifinyelele ku-1296 ngesonto eledlule, nabahlaziyi abaningi ababikezela ukuthi isibambo se-psyche esibucayi se-1300 sasibonakala. Kodwa-ke, uma “ubungozi” besifiso sokudla sihlala sikhona, khona-ke isikhalo esiphephile sezinsimbi eziyigugu kanye nezimali ngempela, njenge-yen ne-Swiss franc, singancipha emasontweni azayo.
Idola laseMelika lisanda kuthola okunye ukulahlekelwa kwalo okubalulekile kuka-2017 ngokumelene nontanga yalo abakhulu: yen, sterling kanye ne-euro, njengoba umhlangano we-FOMC kaDisemba uqala ukugxila. Kusukela ekuqaleni kukaSepthemba kuya ekuqaleni kukaNovemba idola lenze inzuzo enkulu uma liqhathaniswa ne-euro; I-EUR/USD yehle isuka ku-1.21 yaya ku-1.15. Kodwa abahlaziyi kanye nabatshalizimali basheshe banqamula izinombolo kanye nezingqinamba, bebala ukuthi ngokukhuphuka kwezinga okubukeka sengathi izinkinga zizomenyezelwa emhlanganweni wokugcina wezihlalo ze-Fed ngo-2017, ukunyuka kwedola kungenzeka ukuthi sekuvele kwenziwa ngonyaka. Ngenxa yalokho i-EUR/USD isanda kukhuphukela ku-1.92 futhi amaphethini afanayo okuziphatha kwentengo afakazelwe nge-USD/JPY kanye ne-GBP/USD.
U-Janet Yellen osula esikhundleni ngaphambi kwesikhathi njengosihlalo we-Fed, enikeza imisebenzi yakhe ku-Powell oqinile (oyindoda kaTrump), uphakamisa ukuthi noma yikuphi ukwenyuka kwezinga likaDisemba mancane amathuba okuba kulandelwe inqubomgomo enolaka yoklebe ngo-2018. Izinga eli-2-3 liyakhuphuka lungisa amanani afinyelele cishe ku-3% kanye nokuqiniswa kwenani ukuze kukhishwe ishidi lebhalansi ye-Fed engu-$4.5 trillion, manje kubukeka kungenakwenzeka kakhulu.
Nakuba izindaba zekhalenda lezomnotho lase-USA ngo-December zizophathwa ukwenyuka kwentela okuhlosiwe kukaTrump okungenzeka ukuthi kuvotelwe ukuba khona kwabenzi bomthetho base-USA, isimo sezombangazwe nezomnotho sase-Europe sizothonywa kakhulu i-saga eqhubekayo ye-Brexit kanye nokushoda kwamandla kwamanje okukhona eJalimane. Kodwa-ke, naphezu kwenkomba yokulingana yaseJalimane eyinhloko ye-DAX ibhekane neziswebhu kungazelelwe ngesonto eledlule, ngenxa yokuthi u-Angela Merkel engakwazi ukwakha uhulumeni womfelandawonye, i-euro iwuchithile umthelela, abatshalizimali bahumusha le nkinga njengokungaphazamisi. esimeni esibucayi esigcwele. Ngempela i-euro ikhuphuke kakhulu uma iqhathaniswa nontanga yayo ngoLwesihlanu njengoba izingxoxo phakathi kwabalingani bakaMerkel bangaphambili i-SDP zenzeka, inyunyana ezokwanelisa abatshalizimali kanye neningi labantu baseJalimane, uma kubhekwa ukuthi amaqembu kumfelandawonye odlule (ngaphambi kokhetho lombuso lwalo nyaka. ), kusengamaqembu amabili ezepolitiki aziwa kakhulu eJalimane.
Akukho lutho olubalulekile olukhishwayo lwekhalenda lezomnotho olungajabulisa phakathi nezikhathi zokuhweba zangoMsombuluko; Ukuthengiswa kwezitolo zaseJalimane kubikezelwa ukuthi kuzongena ngo-2.8% ngo-Okthoba YoY, ukwehla kusuka ku-4.1% ngaphambilini. E-USA sizothola ukuthengiswa kwezindlu okusha kwakamuva, isibikezelo singokwehla ngo--6.3%, sisuka ekukhuphukeni ngo-18.9% kweYoY okubhaliswe ngo-September. Ukwehla kwentengo yezindlu kuzochazwa ngokwehla kwesizini ekuthengisweni.
« I-WEEKLY MARKET SNAPSHOT 27 / 11-01 / 12 | Ama-GDP e: Canada, i-USA, iFrance, i-Italy neSwitzerland azogxila kakhulu esontweni elizayo Igolide lifinyelela ezingeni eliphezulu kakhulu emavikini ayisihlanu, i-yen nayo iyalandela njengezentengiselwano yokuzivikela ephephile, i-European equities slide, kanye ne-euro »
