Asọtẹlẹ aṣa fun ọsẹ ti o bẹrẹ ni Oṣu Keje 21st ọdun 2013
Awọn ọja Forex Lọwọlọwọ han lati wa ni iwakọ nipasẹ awọn iyalẹnu akọkọ mẹta;
Ọrọ ọja Ọdun ti Fed tapering ati akoko rẹ.
.Awọn tita ti awọn ohun-ini ajeji nipasẹ awọn oludokoowo Japanese.
.The liquidity squeeze of China and the slowing of the world’s second largest economy.
The market consensus, after Ben Bernanke gave his two days of 
testimony in front of various facets of the USA government last week, appeared to be no change to his previous week’s FOMC statements – monetary easing will be aggressively pursued until the original 6.5% unemployment target (stated at the outset of the latest rounds of monetary easing) is finally reached.
Given that this will take the creation of approximately two million new jobs and take USA unemployment to pre Great Recession levels, the markets have translated this as potentially 18-24 months of further $85 billion quantitative easing/monetary stimulus, or until such time as the Fed announces tapering of the stimulus. The longer the tapering issue lingers, the more likely that the market correction will be sudden, as opposed to a gentle deflating of the current record levels witnessed by the DJIA and S&P 500. Just how sudden and by what percentage the main indices will fall is impossible to predict, but the closer we arrive to a tapering decision the greater the speculation will be. The Fed’s massive portfolio/balance sheet now exceeds $3 trillion, the longer the policy lasts, the more likely it will end unhappily…
Savers, especially pensioners struggling to live on income from their investments, are cornered for safe options. They’ve been forced into equities/stocks, which is one reason the market has been rising parabolically. With borrowing costs low, Congress and the White House have less incentive to rein in the national debt, whilst ZIRP has distorted markets.
There are currently no definitive visions as to how the Fed plans to unload parts of their $3 trillion assets. As it does finally sell off the value of all bonds could plunge, wiping out the very marginal returns bond investors are receiving. The longer the Fed’s easy-money policies continue, the greater the risk they’re terminally distorting markets, creating new bubbles and setting the USA (and in turn the global economy) up for another crisis fall.
Onínọmbà aṣa aṣa bata owo meji
EUR / USD
EUR / USD aṣa iyipada ti o kẹhin ni Oṣu Keje 9th - 10th ati pe o ti ṣetọju itọpa lọwọlọwọ ati ipa lati igba naa. Itupalẹ julọ ti a lo julọ ati awọn afihan awọn iṣowo iṣowo golifu yoo daba pe ipa lọwọlọwọ lọwọlọwọ ni ilẹ siwaju si lati gba pada. PSAR wa ni isalẹ owo, awọn sitokasitik (lori eto ti a ṣatunṣe ti 9,9,5) tun wa lati yiyipada / agbelebu, tabi de agbegbe ti a ti ra. DMI (lori eto ti a ṣatunṣe ti 20) n tẹ awọn giga giga julọ lori itan-akọọlẹ, lakoko ti MACD tun n tẹ awọn giga giga julọ. Kika kika RSI (lori eto idiwọn ti akoko ọjọ 14) Lọwọlọwọ lọwọlọwọ loke ipele 50 agbedemeji ni 54.81. Awọn ẹgbẹ Bollinger lori awọn eto boṣewa jẹ diẹ ninu ijinna lati ṣẹ. Iṣe idiyele ni lilo awọn ọpa Heikin Ashi ṣafihan awọn abẹla pipade lakoko iṣowo ọjọ iṣaaju, pẹlu awọn ojiji kekere ti o daba ni ilọsiwaju siwaju.
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Ayafi ti iyapa nla ba wa ni ọsẹ yii ni awọn ofin ti iṣọkan ile-ifowopamọ iṣọkan o yoo jẹ aibikita lati ṣe idajọ aṣiṣe tabi igbiyanju lati ṣe asọtẹlẹ iyipada iṣaro kan. Nitorinaa awọn oniṣowo ni awọn ipo aṣa gigun ti EUR / USD yoo ni imọran lati wa fun ijẹrisi kikun tabi apakan ti ọpọlọpọ awọn afihan afihan ṣaaju iṣaro ipo kukuru kan.
GBP / USD
The first minutes of the UK Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, after new governor Mark Carney took over the reins as the governor, were revealed last week. The post minutes’ analysis suggested that fresh monetary stimulus is currently off the table. Similarly any adjustment to the current 0.5% base interest rate appears unlikely unless the UK begins to slip back into recession. Despite many analysts believing that Carney will begin an inevitable dove-tailing of policy with the USA, the overall message appeared to be one of controlled and systematic decision making, albeit proactive versus reactive. The effect on cable was predictable…
Iru si okun / EUR / USD okun iyipada ti o kẹhin ni Oṣu Keje 9th - 10th. Niwon ọjọ wo ni o ti ṣetọju ilosoke iduroṣinṣin. Eto ti o fẹ julọ ti awọn afihan aṣa ti o wọpọ julọ jẹ gbogbo afihan rere fun ilọsiwaju ti o tẹsiwaju. PSAR wa ni isalẹ owo, DMI di rere (lori eto ti a ṣatunṣe ti 20) ni Oṣu Keje Ọjọ kejidilogun ati itan-akọọlẹ ṣe awọn giga giga ni awọn ọjọ atẹle. MACD jẹ rere pẹlu itan-akọọlẹ itan ti n ṣalaye awọn giga giga fun awọn ọjọ itẹlera marun. Awọn sitokasitik (lori 18) jẹ kukuru ti agbegbe ti o ti kọja ati sibẹsibẹ lati kọja, lakoko ti RSI wa loke ila larin ati kika 9,9,5. Ni awọn ọjọ iṣowo mẹrin ti o tẹle ni awọn abẹla Heikin Ashi ti wa ni pipade pẹlu awọn ojiji ti o ga soke, awọn itọkasi pe iṣaro ọja gbogbogbo ti jẹ okun ti o fẹsẹmulẹ. Ayafi ti iyipada ninu ero ba jẹri nipasẹ awọn afihan alailara, tabi iyipada nla ninu eto imulo ti han nipasẹ UK BoE tabi USA Fed, tabi awọn ọja ni iriri ijaya jigijigi, lẹhinna swing / aṣa awọn oniṣowo yoo ni imọran lati duro okun gigun.
USD / JPY
Yeni Dollar kẹhin ni iriri iyipada aṣa kan ni Oṣu Keje Ọjọ 10. Lati igba wo ni aṣa bearish tuntun ti jẹ idaniloju. PSAR wa loke idiyele, RSI n ka 56.95, MACD jẹ rere de awọn giga giga, bii DMI lori eto atunṣe ti 20. Aarin Bollinger agbedemeji ti wọ inu ipa ti oke. Awọn laini isokuso ti wa ni dín lori eto atunyẹwo ti 9,9,5 ṣugbọn o jẹ didoju bẹni aṣeju tabi awọn agbegbe ti o tobi ju ti o han ni arọwọto. Awọn oniṣowo aṣa ti o fẹran lilo awọn olufihan lati pinnu itọsọna ati ẹniti o kuru lọwọlọwọ yoo ni imọran lati duro fun ijẹrisi kikun ti gbogbo awọn olufihan ti o fẹ julọ julọ ṣaaju yiyipada ipo wọn ti a fun ni pe kika iwe kika lọwọlọwọ ko ni idaniloju. PSAR ti o wa ni isalẹ owo ati irekọja awọn sitokasitik ni a le ṣe akiyesi awọn ifihan agbara ti o yẹ lati nipari gun.
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Epo WTI
U.S. oil began its recent parabolic trend on June 25th. Oil breached $109 per barrel during last week’s sessions and threatened to reach $110 per barrel. Heightened tensions regarding the situation in Egypt, putting pressure on the Suez canal and the SUMED’s pipeline to continue unbroken supply. Unbroken supply questions affected sentiment as did many domestic questions in relation to current reserves in the USA. The last comparative weekly high was last witnessed in March 2012. The most commonly used indicators to plot swing trends are still reading positive regarding a continual upward momentum. However, a swing in sentiment as a result of geo political solutions being reached could cause a sell off in oil, as could further proof that the USA is genuinely in a position to become energy independent. PSAR, MACD, DMI, Bollinger bands, Heikin Ashi bars, stochastics are all positive. O gbọdọ mu ni ọkọ pe bi epo ọja ṣe n gba awọn iyipada ti iwa-ipa nigbagbogbo, nitorinaa yoo jẹ imọran fun awọn oniṣowo (ti o ti jẹ epo pipẹ lati igba ti aṣa ti dagbasoke lati opin Oṣu Keje) lati ṣakoso awọn iduro irin wọn daradara.
Aami inkan
Goolu ti ṣe pataki, botilẹjẹpe ko ni idaniloju, imularada lori awọn ọsẹ to ṣẹṣẹ niwon aṣa iyipada ni Oṣu Keje 9th - 10th. Bi awọn ọja kariaye ti jinde, nitori abajade ti awọn bèbe aringbungbun adehun iṣọkan lori awọn iwuri asiko, iwulo fun goolu bi ibi aabo ti dinku. Sibẹsibẹ, aabo ti ṣe awọn anfani rere lori awọn ọsẹ to ṣẹṣẹ.
Laibikita ireti bullish goolu ko sibẹsibẹ lati ṣafẹri iyin ni kikun ti awọn olufihan aṣa, ni iyanju pe ọpọlọpọ awọn alafofo ati awọn oludokoowo wa ni idaniloju pẹlu awọn iyi si iyara bullish. Nitootọ pupọ ninu awọn afihan aṣa lori awọn eto ti a ṣatunṣe n tọka pe iṣiṣẹ bullish alailesin yii le rẹ. Awọn sitokasitik wa ni agbegbe ti a ti taju, DMI ko tii di ẹni ti o dara, botilẹjẹpe ṣiṣe awọn giga ti o ga julọ lori eto 20 ti a tunṣe. RSI naa ti kọja ipele agbedemeji lati ka kika 55.3 lakoko ti o ti ṣẹ ẹgbẹ Bollinger oke. Iwoye goolu han primed fun adehun jade. As to whether or not this will be to the upside is extremely difficult to predict. Therefore traders would be advised to remain vigilant if they’re currently long gold by managing their stops and expectations.
Atọka DJIA
DJIA bẹrẹ igbesẹ bullish to ṣẹṣẹ ni Oṣu Karun ọjọ 26th. Igbesoke naa ti sunmọ awọn aaye 800. Laibikita awọn olufihan ti o daba iyanju agbara ti iṣipopada ọja iṣipopada jẹ igbẹkẹle igbẹkẹle lori alaye pẹlu n ṣakiyesi iwuri owo, ni ilodi si awọn owo-rere ti o dara ni akoko ijabọ lọwọlọwọ, tabi awọn iṣẹlẹ iroyin pataki ti a tẹjade.
Awọn olufihan aṣa ti o daba ni ọja ti o ra ju pẹlu RSI ti o de ọdọ 70 ati awọn sitokasitik ti o wa ni agbegbe apọju ati titẹjade lori awọn kika 90. Awọn abẹla ojoojumọ ojoojumọ ti jẹ aijinile pẹlu awọn ojiji kekere lori awọn akoko to ṣẹṣẹ. MACD ti tẹ awọn giga giga isalẹ lori itan-akọọlẹ. Awọn oniṣowo tipẹ lọwọlọwọ yoo ni imọran lati ṣe atẹle awọn iṣowo wọn pẹlu iṣọra bi DJIA ṣe n ṣe afihan ọpọlọpọ awọn ami pe awọn giga gbigbasilẹ yoo kuna lati jẹ irufin ati pe itan nipa ifunra ti irọrun owo ti ni idiyele ni. Oja le ṣe eto fun retracement pataki. Awọn oniṣowo ti o ni oye ni lilo ohun elo Fibonacci le bẹrẹ lati ronu iṣeeṣe fun retracement pataki kan.
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