גאַנג אַנאַליסיס פֿאַר די וואָך אָנהייב 23 מער
אונדזער וויקלי גאַנג / מאַך טריידינג אַנאַליסיס באשטייט פון צוויי פּאַרץ; ערשטער, מיר אַנאַלייז די פונדאַמענטאַל פּאָליטיק דיסיזשאַנז און נייַעס געשעענישן פֿאַר די קומענדיק וואָך. צווייטנס מיר נוצן טעכניש אַנאַליסיס אין אַן פּרווון צו באַשליסן קיין פּאָטענציעל טריידינג אַפּערטונאַטיז. טריידערז לייענען אונדזער שליסל קאַלענדאַר געשעענישן פֿאַר די וואָך זאָל טאָן די פֿאָרויסזאָגן, ווייַל קיין דיווייישאַן, פֿון די פּרעדיקטעד דורך די יקאַנאַמיס פּאָולד, קענען פירן צו הויפּט קראַנטקייַט פּאָר מווומאַנץ, דיפּענדינג אויף די קאָנסעקווענשאַנאַל שיפץ אין סענטימענט געפֿירט אויב די דאַטן קומען אויבן, אָדער ונטער עקספּעקטיישאַנז.
The week begins Monday with a raft of PMIs, the first beginning with the HSBC China flash manufacturing PMI excepted to come in at 48.7. Europe’s flash manufacturing PMI is predicted to come in at 55.3, with services PMI anticipated to come in at 52.6. French flash services PMI is expected to print at 47.9. Germany’s flash manufacturing PMI is expected to come in at 55.8, Germany’s flash services PMI is anticipated to come in at 55.8. Germany’s central bank publishes its BUBA report. Later in the afternoon the flash manufacturing PMI for the USA is published.
דינסטיק sees China’s conference board LEI published, later the RBA governor Lowe speaks, in the UK the Nationwide house price index is published, the German IFO business climate index is published, with an expected reading of 110.9. The UK’s CPI is published expected in at 1.7% year on year. The BBA mortgage approvals are predicted to come in at 50K for the last month. PPI for the UK is predicted to come in at 0.4% for the month, with RPI expected in at 2.7% year on year. HPI, house price inflation, is predicted to have increased by 5.7% year on year according to the ONS.
Europe’s trade balance is anticipated to come in at €13.9 bn positive for the month. UK CBI realized sales are predicted to come in at 30. From the USA the Case Shilller house price index is published, expected in at 13.3% year on year, with HPI month on month expected in at 0.7%. Consumer confidence in the USA is expected to print at 78.7. New home sales are expected to come in at 447K. The Richmond manufacturing index is predicted in at -1. Deputy Governor of the RBA Lowe speaks. Later FOMC Plosser speaks.
מיטוואָך sees the RBA financial stability report published and the RBA Governor Stevens speaks. From Europe we receive the GFK German consumer confidence reading predicted to come in at 8.5. Italian retail sales are expected in at 0.4% up on the month. Core durable goods orders in the USA are expected to come in at 0.3% with durable goods orders predicted in up 1.1% month on month. Flash services PMI for the USA is predicted in at 54.2. The USA also publishes the results of the banking stress tests. The New Zealand trade balance is expected to come in at a positive $600 ml for the month.
דאָנערשטיק witnesses the private loans data for Europe published expected in at 2.1% down. Retail sales for the UK are expected to come in at 0.5% up for the month, weekly unemployment claims in the USA are predicted in at 326K. FOMC member Pianalto speaks whilst the USA final GDP is published, expected in at 2.7% quarter on quarter. Pending home sales in the USA are anticipated to come in at 0.2% up on the month.
הויזגעזינד ספּענדינג אין יאַפּאַן איז דערוואַרט צו זיין געוואקסן מיט 0.3%, די האַרץ טאָקיאָ קפּי איז 0.9% און די נאציאנאלע האַרץ קפּי איז 1.9%. אַרבעטלאָזיקייַט אין יאַפּאַן איז געריכט צו דרוקן ביי 3.7% מיט לאַכאָדימ פארקויפונג אין יאַפּאַן געריכט צו האָבן ימפּרוווד מיט 3.6% יאָר אויף יאָר.
פרייַטיק German CPI is anticipated to come in at 0.4% with import prices at 0.3%. The UK current account is expected to print at -$13.5 bn. Final GDP is expected to come in at 0.7% for the quarter. Index of services for the quarter in the UK is predicted to come in at 0.6%.
פערזענלעכע ספּענדינג דעטאַילס זענען ארויס אין די USA, געריכט אין 0.3% פּער חודש אַרויף מיט פּערזענלעך האַכנאָסע אַרויף 0.4% פּער חודש פּער חודש. דער ריווייזד אוניווערסיטעט פון מישיגן קאָנסומער סענטימענט אינדעקס איז ארויס געריכט צו קומען אין 80.6.
טעכניש אַנאַליסיס מיט דיטיילד פּאָטענציעל טריידז אויף עטלעכע הויפּט קראַנטקייַט פּערז, ינדיסיז און קאַמאַדאַטיז
אונדזער טעכניש אַנאַליסיס פון מאַך / טרענד טריידינג איז קאַמפּרייזד מיט די פאלגענדע ינדאַקייטערז וואָס זענען אַלע לינקס אויף זייער נאָרמאַל באַשטעטיקן, מיט די ויסנעם פון די סטאָטשאַסטיק שורות וואָס זענען אַדזשאַסטיד צו 10, 10, 5 אין אַן פּרווון צו 'רעדן אויס' פאַלש רידינגז. כל אונדזער אַנאַליסיס איז געפירט בלויז אויף די טעגלעך צייט ראַם. מיר נוצן: PSAR, Bollinger באַנדס, DMI, MACD, ADX, RSI און די סטאָטשאַסטיק. מיר אויך נוצן די שליסל מאָווינג אַוורידזשיז פון: 21, 50, 100, 200. מיר קוקן פֿאַר דיוועלאַפּמאַנץ פון שליסל פּרייַז קאַמף און אָבסערווירן שליסל כאַנדאַלז / לומינג קייַלעכיק נומערן און פּסיכיק לעוועלס. פֿאַר די טעגלעך באַרס די Heikin Ashi אופֿן איז בילכער.
עור / USD finally broke to the downside on March 20th. Currently the price action is bearish, the last two HA daily candles are full bodied, closed with downward shadows; price has breached the lower Bollinger band, but is above the 200, 50 and 100 SMAs. The DMI is positive, but making lower highs, whilst the MACD is negative and making lower lows. PSAR is above price, RSI is at 49 with the ADX at 22. The stochastic lines have crossed and have exited the overbought territory. Traders short would be advised to stay so until several of the afore-mentioned indicators have reversed trend. Traders may wish to add to their positions should price approach the 200 SMA, above the critical round number of 13400.
אָד / USD broke to the upside on March 5th since which time the security has behaved in a volatile manner when judged on the daily time frame. However, the trend has remained bullish with PSAR below price, price breaching the main SMAs with the exception of the 200 SMA. Price had breached the upper Bollinger, but has now retraced back to the middle Bollinger. Friday’s HA candle was inconclusive taking on a similar appearance to a classic doji candle. Currently, when observed on the histogram visual, both the MACD and DMI are positive and making higher highs, the stochastic lines have yet to cross but are short of the overbought zone. The RSI is at 57 with the ADX at 15. Traders long would be advised to stay so until several of the afore-mentioned indicators exhibit bearish tendencies. Traders looking to close could (as a minimum) look towards the PSAR appearing above price as a reason to close the long trades.
USD / דזשפּי broke to the downside on March 12th; however, traders must be on alert that the chart pattern has all the appearance of a security coiled to break to the upside. Currently PSAR is above price, price is above the 200 SMA. Both the DMI and MACD are positive and making higher highs, price has breached the middle Bollinger band. The stochastic lines are short of both the overbought and oversold area and have crossed to the downside. RSI is at 49 and the ADX is at 15. Traders short would be advised to proceed with caution given the mixed signals the indicators and price action is exhibiting.
די דדזשיאַ broke to the upside in the last daily session of the preceding week. Currently the PSAR is below price and positive, both the MACD and DMI are positive and making higher highs. The stochastic lines have crossed to the downside early in the month and are yet to reverse given the suddenness of the break to the upside. The RSI is at 52 with the ADX at 11. Price has breached the middle Bollinger and is above all the key SMAs. Traders long would be advised to make good use of trailing stops via the use of the PSAR given the current unpredictable nature of the markets and their inextricable link to the geo political tensions in the Ukraine area.
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