I-Yuan iwela kwelona nqanaba lisezantsi ukususela ngo-2008 njenge-PboC Ilahlekelwa kuLawulo
I-yuan yelizwe iwile kwelona nqanaba libuthathaka xa lithelekiswa nedola ukusukela kwintlekele yezemali yehlabathi ka-2008 phakathi kokunyuka okuthe gqolo kwemali yase-US kurhwebo lwemali kunye namarhe okuba i-China yenza lula inkxaso kwimali yasekhaya.
I-yuan yasekhaya iyancipha ukuya kwi-7.2256 ngedola, inqanaba elingazange libonwe kwiminyaka eyi-14, ngelixa izinga lokutshintshiselwa kwe-offshore lawela kwirekhodi eliphantsi kwi-2010, ngokwedatha. IBhanki yaBantu yaseTshayina ifake iyuan ngamanqaku angama-444 ngaphezulu kwexabiso eliphakathi, ngokutsho kophando lweBloomberg. Umahluko wawungowona mncinane ukususela ngoSeptemba 13, ucebisa ukuba iBeijing inokunciphisa inkxaso yayo yemali njengoko idola iqinisa kwaye amazinga otshintshiselwano lwehlabathi awela.
"Ukulungiswa kunika amandla emarike ithuba elingakumbi lokusebenzisa i-yuan ngokusekelwe ekungangqinelani komgaqo-mali kunye nokutshintsha kweemarike," kusho uFiona Lim, ingcali yemali ephezulu kwi-Malaya Banking Bhd. “Oku akuthethi ukuba i-PBOC ayizukusebenzisa ezinye izixhobo ukuxhasa iyuan. Sicinga ukuba intshukumo yakusasa inganceda ukubeka iziqhoboshi kwezinye iimali ezingezizo iidola esele ziphantsi koxinzelelo. "
I-yuan yasekhaya iye yawa ngaphezu kwe-4% malunga nedola kule nyanga kwaye isendleleni yokulahlekelwa kwayo okukhulu ngonyaka ukususela ngo-1994. Imali iphantsi koxinzelelo lwe-bearish njengoko ukuhlukana kwelizwe lomgaqo-mali wemali ukusuka kwi-US kukhuthaza ukuphuma kwemali. Amagosa ase-Federal Reserve, kuquka uMongameli waseSt. Kwelinye icala, iBeijing ihlala ibuthathaka phakathi kwemingcipheko yokunyuka kwexabiso njengoko imfuno isihla phantsi kobunzima bengxaki yezindlu eqhubekayo kunye nezithintelo zeCovid.
Ungenelelo lwePBoC
I-PBoC izama ukuxhasa iyuan, nangona la manyathelo aneziphumo ezilinganiselweyo. Oko kumisela izilungiso zeyuan ezinamandla kunoko bezilindelwe kwiiseshini ezithe tye ezingama-25, olona luhlu lude ukusukela oko kwaqala uphando lwaseBloomberg luka-2018. Ngaphambili, wehlise ubuncinci obufunekayo kugcino lonaniso lwangaphandle kwiibhanki.
Ukunciphisa ukuchasana kwe-NBK ngoLwesithathu kunokuba ngenxa yokuba i-yuan ihlala iqinile ngokumalunga neemali ze-24 zamaqabane amashishini amakhulu, ngokutsho kwedatha ye-Bloomberg, eboniswe yi-index ye-CFETS-RMB yexesha langempela. Abanye abahlalutyi baphinda bacinge ukuba i-China isenokungakwazi ukumelana nokuhla kwe-yuan, njengoko imali ebuthathaka inokunyusa ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kunye nokuxhasa uqoqosho olucothayo.
Amanye amazwe azama ukuxhasa ngokuchasene neUSD
Ngeli xesha, abenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo eJapan, eMzantsi Korea naseIndiya baqinisa ukhuseleko kwiimali zabo njengoko irali yedola ibonisa uphawu oluncinci lokucotha. Inqaku leNomura Holdings Inc licebisa ukuba iibhanki ezingoovimba baseAsia zinokuvula “umgca wesibini wokhuselo” onje ngesixhobo sobuchule obukhulu kunye neakhawunti enkulu.
UBrian Deese, umalathisi weWhite House National Economic Council, uthe akalindelanga esinye isivumelwano sowe-1985 phakathi koqoqosho oluphambili ukulwa namandla edola. Idola inokubona inzuzo eyongezelelekileyo njengoko i-US ibonakala ingakhathali malunga nokuxatyiswa kwemali, utshilo uRajiv De Mello, umphathi wepotfoliyo enkulu kwiGAMA Asset Management eGeneva. “Enyani iyabanceda balwe nokunyuka kwamaxabiso,” utshilo. Uqikelelo olutsha lwe-bearish lweyuan luvele kule veki. UMorgan Stanley uqikelela ixabiso lokuphela konyaka malunga ne-$ 7.3 ngedola. IBhanki yase-United Overseas yehlise uqikelelo lwexabiso lotshintshiselwano lweyuan ukusuka kwi-7.1 ukuya kwi-7.25 phakathi kulo nyaka uzayo.
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