Ngaba amaxabiso akhula ngokunyuka kwamaxabiso abathengi avela e-USA, anika ukukhanya okuluhlaza kwi-FOMC ukunyusa amaxabiso enzala kwintlanganiso yabo kaDisemba?
Ukusuka kwimithombo eyahlukeneyo yase-USA ngoLwesihlanu, sifumana okutsha nje: idatha ye-CPI, intengiso yokuthengisa ephucukileyo kunye neyunivesithi yaseMichigan yophando lokuzithemba. Ubathathu emnye oxabiseke kakhulu, kodwa ohlukeneyo wemetrics oya kuthi akhanyisele kwiintanda ezahlukeneyo: ukukhula, ukuzithemba kunye nokusebenza, kwimiba eyahlukeneyo yoqoqosho lwase-USA. Kwaye kunye nemizuzu ye-FOMC kancinane esanda kupapashwa, enokuthi iyiguqule imbono abatyali-mali abaninzi abanayo; ngokumalunga neenjongo ze-Fed zokubandakanya ukuqinisa ubungakanani kunye nokunyusa izinga lenzala kwi-2018, la manani aya kubekwa esweni ngokusondeleyo, kuzo naziphi na iimpawu zobuthathaka besakhiwo, kuyo nayiphi na indawo yoqoqosho lwase-USA.
I-CPI iqikelelwa ukuba iza kufika nge-2.3%, ngaphambi kwe-1.9% erekhodwe ngenyanga ka-Agasti. Imizuzu ye-FOMC iphakamise ukuba iintloko ezithile ze-Fed zengingqi zifuna ukubona ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ngaphezu kwethagethi ye-2% yokunyuka kwamaxabiso, ngaphambi kokuba banikeze ivoti evumelanayo, ukuphakamisa inzala kwintlanganiso yokugqibela ye-FOMC ye-2017, ecwangciselwe uDisemba 12-13th. Ukuba i-inflation ye-inflation idibene ngoLwesihlanu, ke abatyali-mali bedola baya kuguqulela ngokukhawuleza umphumo njengobungqina bokuba ukunyuka kwezinga kuya kwenzeka, ngaphezu koko, banokukholelwa ukuba i-FOMC ineembumbulu ezaneleyo zokubandakanya inkqubo ye-QT kwaye izinga liphakama kwi-2018, ezikhankanyiweyo kwiintlanganiso nakwimizuzu edlulileyo.
Iintengiso ezikwizinga eliphezulu zokuthengisa zibonelela ngokuqonda okugqwesileyo kukuzithemba ngokubanzi okuviwa ngabathengi base-USA; babeka phambili iiodolo, ngokukodwa, izinto ezinkulu zamatikiti? Uqoqosho lwase-USA luzithathu kwisithathu luqhutywa yinkcitho yabathengi, ngako oko nakuphi na ukucotha kuchaphazela abenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo wemali. Ingqikelelo yeyokufundwa kwe-1.7% yokukhula ngoSeptemba, okuya kubonisa ukuguqulwa okukhulu, ukusuka kwi--0.2% inani elibhalisiweyo ngo-Agasti.
Isalathiso sokuzithemba seYunivesithi yaseMichigan, ayinakuhlonitshwa njengeSilathiso seNgqungquthela yabaThengi beNkomfa, nangona kunjalo, isajongwe kakhulu ngabatyali-mali, njengoko ngokwembali sesinye sezona zifundo zisekiweyo zokuzithemba e-USA. Amanani e-UMich anembali yokulandela inguqu kwi-GDP iyonke. Inani lesihloko libalwa ngokulula ngokuthabatha ipesenteji yeempendulo ezingathandekiyo, ukusuka kwipesenti yeempendulo ezifanelekileyo. Ukufundwa kukaSeptemba kwangena kwi-95.1, uqikelelo luka-Oktobha luyi-95.
IZALATHISI ZENTSEBENZO YOQOQOSHO EZINGUNDOQO E-USA.
• Ukukhula kweGDP yi-3.1%.
• Ukungaphangeli 4.4%.
• I-CPI (ukunyuka kwamaxabiso) 1.9%.
• Ityala likaRhulumente v GDP 106%.
• Ukukhula komvuzo 2.95%.
• Inzala engundoqo yi-1.25%.
• I-PMI edibeneyo ye-54.8.
• Ii-odolo zeempahla ezizinzileyo 1.7%.
• Ukuzithemba kwabathengi 95.1.
• Intengiso kwintengiso YoY 3.2%.
« Idola yaseMelika iwa njengoko imizuzu yeFOMC ibonisa ithoni ethe kratya kunokuba bekulindelwe, iirali ze-euro ngokuchasene neontanga zayo eziphambili. I-whipsaws e-Sterling ngobundlobongela, njengoko imiba ye-Brexit iqala ukugxila kakhulu. Iimakethi ezininzi ze-equity zehlabathi zifikelela kwirekhodi eliphezulu »
