Ngaba i-FOMC iya kulandelela ukuzibophelela kwabo; ukunyusa amaxabiso kathathu ngo-2017?
Kwintlanganiso yabo yokugqibela ka-2017, eza kugqitywa ngoLwesithathu we-1 kuNovemba, i-FOMC (izitulo zazo zonke iiFed zengingqi), iya kugqiba intlanganiso yabo ngokubhengeza isigqibo sabo malunga nenqanaba eliphambili lenzala e-USA. Isibhengezo silandelwa yinkomfa noonondaba kunye / okanye uxwebhu, oluchaza izizathu zokuba kuthathwe isigqibo.
Rhoqo kuhlalutyo olukhawulezileyo lwamaxwebhu, okanye ngexesha lenkomfa yoonondaba, xa abatyali mali beya kufumana ulwazi olongezelelekileyo malunga nenkuthazo ye-FOMC kunye nesikhokelo sangaphambili; Ngaba wonke umyalezo u-hawkish, okanye u-dovish? Ngaba izitulo zeFed zisebenza ngendlela ye-hawkish; ngokujonga ukungena kumgaqo-nkqubo wezemali okhululekileyo okhoyo okhoyo kwiminyaka yakutshanje ngokusebenzisa amaxakeka kaxakeka / asezantsi kunye nokwenziwa lula kobungakanani? Okanye baya kuqhubeka nomgaqo-nkqubo we-dovish; ngokugcina amaxabiso asezantsi kwaye ubonise ukuba ukuqiniswa kwamanani akuyi kwenzeka, nangalo naliphi na inqanaba lokungxamiseka, kwi-2018?
Kwangoko ngo-Okthobha ukunyuka kwenqanaba lenzala, ukusuka kwinqanaba langoku le-1.25% ukuya kwi-1.5%, kujongeka ngathi akunakupapashwa ngolwesiThathu, kugcinwa ukuzibophelela okwenziwe ekuqaleni konyaka yi-FOMC; ukunyusa amaxabiso amaxesha amathathu ku-2017. Nangona kunjalo, ukuvumelana okukhoyo ngoku uninzi lwezoqoqosho olwenziwe ngeBloomberg kunye neReuters, ngoku kubonakala ngathi kuxubekile. Abaliqela ngoku bacebisa ukuba elona zinga liphambili liza kuhlala kwi-1.25% kude kube kwangoko ngo-2018, ngaphandle kwesiqwengana sedatha enzima yase-USA ebetha uqikelelo; I-GDP inyukile ngaphandle komonakalo wenkanyamba wakutsha nje, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kulunge kakhulu kwi-2.2%, intswela-ngqesho ikufutshane neminyaka elishumi, imivuzo iyenyuka, ukuthengisa kunye nokuthengisa okuzinzileyo kunyukile kwaye ukuzithemba kwabathengi kubonakala kuphezulu. Idatha iphakamisa ukuba uqoqosho lomelele ngokwaneleyo ukujongana nothotho lokunyuka kwamazinga, ukwenzela ukuba imeko ibenokubakho yesiqhelo ukuya kwi-3%, ngekota yesithathu yowama-2018.
Le nkqubo yokuqhelanisa, idityaniswe neFed ukuqala ukuzikhupha kwi-4.5 yezigidigidi zeerandi, ngendlela yenkqubo ebizwa ngokuba "kukuqinisa ubungakanani", yayingumgaqo-nkqubo ochazwe nguJanet Yellen kwi2017, ngoku obonakala ngathi akanamsebenzi oza kutshintshwa ukhetho lukaTrump, njengesihlalo seFed ngoFebruwari. Olu tshintsho olunokubakho lunokuba nefuthe kwisigqibo se-FOMC; mhlawumbi ukuqeshwa okutsha akufuneki kudle ilifa umgaqo-nkqubo wangaphambili.
Njengoko isibhengezo sikhutshwa, ngexesha kwaye kungekudala emva kwayo nayiphi na inkomfa yeendaba ebanjiweyo, sinokulindela ukungqina intshukumo kwi-USD, xa kuthelekiswa noontanga bayo abakhulu kwaye ngaphezulu uninzi loontanga bayo. Ngokwendalo intshukumo iya kuxhomekeka kakhulu kwinqanaba lokuphakama kunye nendlela i-hawkish, okanye i-dovish ibali lilonke. I-USD yenze iinzuzo ezinkulu xa kuthelekiswa noontanga bayo abaphambili kwezi veki zidlulileyo, ngenxa yoko intengiso inokuba sele inamaxabiso kulo naluphi na ukonyuka kwenqanaba kunye nefuthe (ukuba ngenene ukunyuka kwenqanaba kuyabhengezwa) kungancitshiswa. Yintoni eqinisekileyo kukuba ukunyuka kwezinga le-circa 0.25% akulindelanga. Nangona kunjalo, abathengisi kufuneka bahlengahlengise izikhundla zabo ngononophelo kwaye ngokufanelekileyo, njengoko izigqibo zenqanaba lenzala ngaphandle kwamathandabuzo sesinye sezitshixo, iimpembelelo eziphezulu, imicimbi yekhalenda apha enyakeni kunye nokuphendula kwintengiso kungalindelekanga kakhulu.
IINKCUKACHA NGOKUQHELEKILEYO NGOKUZOQOQOSHO KWI-USA.
Umyinge wenzala 1.25%.
• Ukukhula kweGDP yi-3%.
• Ukukhula kwe-GDP ngonyaka nge-2.3%.
• Inqanaba lokungaphangeli 4.2%.
• Ukukhula komvuzo 3.2%.
• I-CPI (ukunyuka kwamaxabiso) 2.2%.
• Ityala likaRhulumente v GDP 106%.
• I-PMI edibeneyo ye-55.7.
• Ii-odolo zeempahla ezizinzileyo 2.2%.
• Intengiso kwintengiso 4.4%.
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