ISIQINISEKISO SOKUQALA KWEVEKI 7/12 - 11/12 | UKUQOKELELWA KWEDOLI NGEXESHA LOPHANDO LIBALI ELIFUNA UKUBONAKALA OKUNGAKUMBI
Zininzi izinto ezazilawula iveki yorhwebo ephela ngoDisemba 4. I-Covid kunye nethemba lezitofu zokugonya, iBrexit, ukubola okuswelekileyo kolawulo lukaTrump, kunye neengxoxo ezikhuthazayo zeebhanki eziphambili noorhulumente. Le yimicimbi eqhubekayo ye-macroeconomic eya kuthi inyanzelise imeko kunye neepateni esizibonayo kwiitshathi zethu ze-FX kunye namaxesha abekiweyo kwiintsuku nakwiiveki ezizayo.
Iziphumo zeCovid kwiimarike zezabelo
Ngaphandle kovuyo lwesitofu oluye lwaphuma phakathi evekini, oorhulumente abohlukeneyo bayasokola nomceli mngeni wokuhambisa ezi zitofu ngaphandle kokuchaphazela amandla. Iyeza likaPfizer lisebenza kuphela kwi-70c, ke ukuhambisa amayeza angavavanywanga ngothungelwano kude kube kufikelela engalweni yomnye umntu kubonisa umsebenzi wokulungiselela owawungazange wenziwe ngaphambili. Kwakhona, asazi ukuba isitofu sokuthintela sithintela ukudluliselwa okungapheliyo okanye ukuba ihlala ixesha elingakanani.
I-USA irekhodishe ukusweleka kwabantu abamalunga nama-3,000 200,000 kunye nama-450 amatyala amahle mihla le kwiintsuku ezisandula ukwenziwa kwaye iingcali ziqikelela ukuba la manani aza kuba mandundu ngaphandle kokuba i-USA yamkele umgaqo-nkqubo onyanzelekileyo wokunxiba imaski. Ngaphandle kwalo mlinganiso, ilizwe lijamelene nokusweleka okungaphezulu kwama-1K ngo-Matshi 100, ngokwe-University of John Hopkin. UJoe Biden uphakamisa umgaqo-nkqubo weentsuku ezili-XNUMX wokunxiba imaski emva kokumiselwa kwakhe.
Ngaphandle kokubhubha kukaCovid kunye namanani amatyala afikelela kwiindawo eziphakamileyo zerekhodi, ii-indices zokulingana zase-USA zixhase phambili, zithatha irekhodi eliphezulu. Akukho mfihlakalo yokuba kutheni iWall Street ihambela phambili ngelixa iSitrato esiyiNtloko siwa; inkcitho kwezemali nakwezemali ezivaleleke kwiimarike. Akukho bungqina bokukhohlisa; Abantu abadala baseMelika abazizigidi ezingamashumi amabini anesihlanu ngoku bafumana izibonelelo zomsebenzi, kodwa iimarike zithatha irekhodi eliphezulu.
Ukudodobala kwe-USD kubonakala kungabinaso isiphelo
Idola yaseMelika iye yehla kakhulu kwezi veki zidlulileyo. Zombini ezolawulo lukaTrump kunye nolawulo olungenayo lweBiden akunakulindeleka ukuba ziwulungise lo mbandela.
Idola ebuthathaka inenzuzo enye ebalulekileyo; yenza ukuba ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kubize ixabiso eliphantsi, icala le-flip kukunyuka kwamaxabiso, kodwa kwi-ZIRP (umgaqo-nkqubo wenqanaba lenzala) zero inflation kufuneka igcinwe ikhangelwe.
Idola edilikayo sisiphumo esingenakuphepheka sezigidi zeedola ezixabisa inkuthazo iFed ne-USA urhulumente wazibandakanya ekuvuseleleni uqoqosho oluhlaselwe yiCovid. Ukuba iCongress kunye neNdlu yeeNgwevu banokuyivuma enye into yokukhuthaza kule veki izayo, sinokulindela ukuba idola ihlale ibuthathaka.
Ngexesha leseshoni yokurhweba yaseLondon ngolwesiHlanu kusasa, isalathiso sedola (i-DXY) sithengise kufutshane neflethi ngama-90.64. Xa ukhumbula ukuba isalathiso sibambe indawo ekufutshane ne-100 kule minyaka idlulileyo, ukuwa kuya kulinganiswa. I-DXY isezantsi isondele -6% unyaka ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, kwaye yehle -1.29% ngeveki.
Ixabiso le-USD xa kuthelekiswa ne-euro likwalinganisa ukungabikho komnqweno wokubamba iidola. Kwaye kufanelekile ukuba uqaphele ukuba i-ECB isebenzisa imigaqo-nkqubo ye-ZIRP kunye ne-NIRP engafanele ukubonisa i-euro njengendawo ekhuselekileyo. I-EUR / USD yayithengisa i-0.13% kwiseshoni yakusasa; inyuke nge-2.93% ngenyanga kwaye i-8.89% unyaka ukuza kuthi ga ngoku.
Ku-1.216 ezona zimbini zithengiswa kakhulu zezorhwebo zithengiswa kwinqanaba elingabonwanga ukusukela ngo-Epreli-Meyi 2018. Xa kujongwa kwitshathi yemihla ngemihla, imeko iyabonakala ukusuka ekupheleni kuka-Novemba, kwaye abathengisi be-swing kuya kufuneka babeke iliso kwimeko ngononophelo mhlawumbi ngokulungisa ukuyeka kwabo ukulandela umkhondo ukuqinisekisa ukuba bayabhankisha ipesenti yeenzuzo.
I-Brexit ezayo ayikalifumani ixabiso le-sterling okwangoku
I-UK ngoku ineentsuku ezingama-27 ukuba iphume kwisizwe sama-27 sokurhweba kwi-EU, kwaye nangona urhulumente wase-UK etyhola ipropaganda esindisa ubuso ngomzuzu wokugqibela, inyani echanekileyo ihleli; i-UK iphulukana nokufikelela kwimarike enye. Abantu, iimpahla, imali kunye neenkonzo abasayi kuphinda bakwazi ukuhamba ngaphandle kwempikiswano kwaye ngaphandle kweerhafu.
Abahlalutyi kunye nabahlomli beemarike kufuneka basuse amehlo abo kwiitshathi zabo kwaye baqonde isiphithiphithi esisebenzayo esiza kubakho ukusukela ngeyoMqungu 1. I-UK uqoqosho ngama-80% luxhomekeke kwiinkonzo kunye nomthengi, umgama oziikhilomitha ezisixhenxe weelori ezisemva kwizibuko lase-UK ziya kugxila ezingqondweni. Sele imibutho yokuthutha abantu ixelela uluntu ukuba lindele iishelufa ezingenanto kwiivenkile ezinkulu.
Ubuthathaka beDola kwibhodi yonke buye bathandeka kwi-GBP; I-sterling inyuke kakhulu xa ithelekiswa ne-USD ngezizathu ezibini; ubuthathaka bedola kunye nethemba likaBrexit. Ukudodobala kwe-USD kwezi veki zidlulileyo kusenokwenzeka ukuba kufihle ukungakhuseleki okujikeleze i-GBP.
Kwiseshoni yaseLondon ngo-Disemba 4, i-GBP / USD yayithengisa -0.25% emva kokuba amaqela amabini ethethathethwano eBrexit ekhuphe iingxelo zokuba iintetho ziyawa.
Iqela lase-Bhritane lijolise ngabom ekulobeni, njengeshishini elingena ngaphantsi kwe-0.1% ye-UK GDP. Umcimbi waselwandle ubeka imvakalelo yobuzwe kunye nokuthand 'izwe phakathi kwabo baseBrits abafunde iimpapasho ezincinci zobuchopho.
I-GBP / i-USD inyukile nge-2.45% ngenyanga kwaye i-2.40% unyaka ukuza kuthi ga ngoku. Ixabiso langoku ngumgama othile ukusuka kwi-USD ne-GBP abahlalutyi abaninzi baxela kwangaphambili ngeli xesha kunyaka ophelileyo, ubhubhane weBlack Swan uneziphumo ezininzi ezingalindelekanga nezingalindelekanga.
I-Sterling ibhalisile inzuzo ngokubhekiselele kwi-euro ngo-2020, kwaye kwiseshoni yokuqala, i-EUR / GBP ye-cross-currency pair ithengiswa kwi-0.905 ukuya kwi-0.33% ngelixa isongela ukuphula i-R1. I-EUR / GBP inyukile nge-6.36% unyaka ukuza kuthi ga ngoku. Oku kunyuka, kudibene ne-antipodean currencies i-NZD kunye ne-AUD ikwenyuka xa kuthelekiswa ne-GBP, ibonisa imeko ebuthathaka ngokubanzi kunye noloyiko lokubamba iiponti zase-UK. Iponti nayo iphantsi kwe--2.31% xa ithelekiswa ne-yen ngo-2020.
Igolide ikhazimle njengendawo ekhuselekileyo ngo-2020
Nditsho nabaphethe ii-PhDs ze-physics bangasokola ukuchaza ukuba kutheni iimarike zokulingana zonyukile e-USA nakwamanye amazwe ukurekhoda iindawo eziphakamileyo, ngelixa iindawo ezikhuselekileyo ezinjengeSwitzerland franc, i-yen yaseJapan kunye nezinyithi ezixabisekileyo bezonwabele kakhulu.
Igolide inyuke ngama-20% unyaka ukuza kuthi ga ngoku ngelixa isilivere inyuke ngama-34.20%. Isilivere ityibilikile phantsi kweradar. Xa ifuthe lokuqala lobhubhane weCovid lalihlasela iimarike ngo-Matshi nango-Epreli, kwakunzima ukufumana isilivere ebonakalayo.
Ngaphandle kokufumana i-PM ngokwedijithali / ngokubonakalayo kuthetha ukuyithenga ngendlela ephathekayo eyenziwe ngengqondo epheleleyo kubatyali mali abancinci. I-ounce yesilivere ingaphantsi kwama-25, i-ounce yegolide yi- $ 1840. Kukhethwe ngokulula kubatyali mali abancinci (kodwa abathembekileyo), abaphulukene nethemba labo koorhulumente nakwimali.
Imisitho yekhalenda yezoqoqosho kwiveki ezayo ukuba ichaze
Abarhwebi kufuneka babeke iliso kuyo yonke imicimbi yezoqoqosho ekhankanywe ngasentla kunye nezopolitiko kwiveki ezayo, ngaphezulu nangaphezulu kokukhutshwa kwedatha kunye nezipapasho ezidweliswe kwikhalenda. Masithi urhulumente wase-USA akangekhe avume kukhuthazo lwezezimali kwaye ukuba iimeko ze-Covid kunye nokufa kuyenyuka kwilizwe liphela kwaye ukuba imiba yase-Brexi ayinakusonjululwa. Kwimeko apho, i-USD, i-GBP kunye ne-EUR ziya kuchaphazeleka.
Nangona kunjalo, ukukhutshwa kwedatha yekhalenda kunye neziganeko zisenamandla okuhambisa iimarike zethu ze-forex, kwaye kwiveki ezayo ineziganeko ezithile ezimnandi ezicwangcisiweyo.
Ukufundwa kweZEW okwahlukeneyo kweJamani kupapashwa ngoLwesibini, nge-8 kaDisemba. Uqikelelo kukuwa, okunokubonisa ukuba amacandelo aseJamani asaliva ifuthe lokudodobala okunxulumene neCovid.
ICanada izakubhengeza isigqibo sayo somyinge ngoLwesithathu we-9, kwaye uqikelelo alukho utshintsho. I-CAD inyuke nge-1.67% xa ithelekiswa ne-USD kwiveki ephelileyo. Ukuba i-BoC yehlisa ireyithi ukusuka kwi-0.25% ukuya kwi-0.00%, ezi zibonelelo zinokuba phantsi koxinzelelo. NgoLwesine i-UK ONS izakupapasha idatha ye-GDP yamva nje. Uqikelelo lweReuters lokwehla ukusuka kwi-1% yokukhula kubhaliswe kwinyanga ephelileyo. Ukufundwa kweQoQ kukwalindeleke ukuba kwehle ukusuka kwi-15.5% ebhalwe i-Q2. I-ECB ikwaveza izigqibo zabo zenqanaba lenzala; Iqondo lokuboleka liqikelelwa ukuba liza kuhlala kwi-0.00%, kunye nenqanaba lediphozithi elibi kwi -0.25%. Akukho ngcebiso yokuba i-ECB iyakuthatha inqanaba lesihloko esingaphantsi kwe-0.00% kweli nqanaba kwingxaki yeCovid.
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