IVEKI YOKUTHENGA NGEVEKI 2 / 10-6 / 10 | Ngaba inani eliphantsi kakhulu le-NFP lingazothusa iimarike?
Lixesha lelo lenyanga kwakhona; xa inombolo yeNFP ipapashwa ngoLwesihlanu wokuqala wenyanga entsha. Kubathengisi abasakhasayo banokuzibuza ukuba ingaba yintoni le ingxwabangxwaba, nangona kunjalo, abarhwebi ababebandakanyeka kwiimarike ngexesha loRhwebo olukhulu, xa iinombolo ze-NFP zingabonisa ilahleko yemisebenzi engaphezu kwe-700k kwinyanga enye, ziya kuhlala zibeka ivenkile enkulu. inombolo. Sele lixesha okokoko sifumene ukothuka kwidatha ye-NFP, eyoneleyo yokuhambisa iimarike zezabelo ze-USA, okanye ixabiso ledola, kodwa ngolwesiHlanu uqikelelo kukuba kuphela yimisebenzi engama-50k eyenziweyo ngoSeptemba, ephawula oku NgoLwesihlanu uphume njengomnyhadala wokubeka esweni izikhundla ngononophelo.
Eminye iminyhadala ebalaseleyo yempembelelo kule veki izayo ibandakanya: i-RBA iseta ireyithi yenzala yase-Australia, ukufundwa kwe-ISM e-USA kunye nokufundwa kweMarkit PMI kuzo zonke izizwe eziphambili zaseYurophu naseMelika. I-CPI yaseSwitzerland ipapashiwe, njengoko kunjalo ngoku nedatha yokungaphangeli yaseCanada kunye nedatha yengqesho.
iCawa iqala ngesalathiso sokwenza iAiG yaseOstreliya, okwangoku ngama-59.8 ngo-Agasti kuphela utshintsho olulinganiselweyo oluphezulu. Emva koko siyakufumana isihlenga sedatha yaseJapan yaseTankan, eyona iphambili kuyo iya kuba ngabavelisi abakhulu kunye nesalathiso sabenzi esingabenzi kunye nokufundwa kwembono. Uthotho lokufundwayo luqikelelwa ukuba lubonakalise ukuphucuka okuthobekileyo kwaye urhulumente waseJapan onyibilikileyo, njengoko inkulumbuso u-Abe abize unyulo, idatha yezoqoqosho eJapan kungenzeka ukuba ijongisiswe kwezi veki zizayo, ngokunxulumene nefuthe layo kwi-yen. Ukuthengiswa kwezithuthi eJapan kunye ne-Nikkei PMI yayo yokuvelisa, kuya kupapashwa.
As Iimarike zaseYurophu zivulwa ngoMvulo Amanani okuthengisa aseSwitzerland aya kupapashwa, ewile nge -0.7% ngo-Agasti, uphuculo luya kujongwa. I-Swiss SVME PMI kaSeptemba nayo iyakupapashwa, nge-61.2 ngo-Agasti, ulindelo lokuba kugcinwe ukufundwa. Ukuveliswa kwee-PMI eFrance, eJamani nase-Itali kuya kuhanjiswa nguMarkit, njengoko kuya kufundwa ngokudibeneyo kwimveliso ye-Eurozone, nge-60.6 ngo-Agasti eli nani kulindeleke ukuba ligcinwe, ukuba alibetwanga. I-PMI yezeMveliso yase-UK iya kukhutshwa, inomdla othile inikwe ukuba ithiyori ye-orthodox yezoqoqosho icebisa ukuba iponti ebuthathaka, enamava kwikota ezimbini zokuqala zika-2017, bekufanele ukuba ikhokelele kwimveliso / ekuthumeleni kumazwe angaphandle kwimveliso ye-UK Canada yokuvelisa iMarkit PMI. NgoMvulo, njengoluhlu lokufundwa kwe-ISM e-USA, ezi zifundo ze-ISM zixabiseke kakhulu e-USA kunee-PMI zeMarkit, eyona nto ifundwayo yeyokwenza imveliso, ekulindeleke ukuba ingene kwi-57.8, yehle ukusuka kwi-58.8 ngo-Agasti. Inkcitho yokwakha e-USA kuqikelelwe ukuba inyukile ngo-Agasti ukuya kwi-0.5% yokukhula, ukusuka kwi-0.6% ukuwa ngoJulayi.
uLwesibini iqala ngedatha yaseNew Zealand yemveli yenyanga kumaxabiso efandesi yobisi, kubandakanya amandla obisi. Iimveliso zobisi luthumelo olukhulu lwe-NZ ukuya e-Asiya, nge-NZ kutsha nje ifumene ipalamente ejingayo kunyulo jikelele kunye nesigqibo sokugcina inzala kwi-1.75%, ukungqinelana kwedatha kuya kujongwa. Ibhanki ephambili yase-Australia (i-RBA) iya kutyhila isigqibo sayo kumazinga wenzala, aqikelelwe ukuba angatshintshi kwi-1.5%. Ukufundwa kokuzithemba kwabathengi eJapan kuya kujongwa, kusondela kufutshane nenkulumbuso u-Abe ebiza unyulo ngokukhawuleza, ukugcinwa kokuzithemba kubaluleke kakhulu. Ukwakhiwa kwe-PMI yase-UK kuya kuprintwa, nge-51.1 ngo-Agasti kutyhile ukukhula, nangona kunjalo, oku bekungahambelani nedatha ye-ONS yase-UK. Ngaba abakhi base-UK bazibambile iiprojekthi, ngenxa yokungaqiniseki kukaBrexit? Emva kwexesha ngokuhlwa kuza kufundiswa idatha eyahlukeneyo malunga neAustralia neNew Zealand, eyona iphambili kukusebenza kwe-AiG yesalathiso senkonzo.
uLwesithathu Iinkonzo zaseJapan kunye nee-PMI ezihlanganisiweyo zipapashiwe, njengoko iimarike zaseYurophu zivula isihlenga se-PMIs ezinxulumene neYurophu zipapashwa, ukwenziwa, iinkonzo kunye nokudityaniswa kweFrance, i-Itali, iJamani, i-Eurozone kunye ne-UK zipapashwa. Ii-UK ngokuqinisekileyo zijongwe kakhulu, xa kujongwa imeko yaseBrexit, iinkonzo ezingama-53.7 kunye ne-54 ka-Agasti kufuneka zigcinwe. Ukuba akunjalo emva koko i-sterling inokuba phantsi koxinzelelo. Idatha yokuthengisa ngeYozone yeYoY iya kutyhilwa, ulindelo lwenani langoku le-2.6% ukuze lingqinelane. Njengoko kugxilwe kwi-USA, i-ISM engeyiyo eyokufunda yokufunda ye-ISM ipapashiwe, kulindeleke ukuba ingene nge-55.3 ngo-Septemba, kufundwa okufanayo okurekhodwe ngo-Agasti. Emva kwexesha ngokuhlwa kweYurophu, uJanet Yellen, usihlalo weFed, uza kwenza intetho malunga neebhanki zoluntu eSt. Usuku luphela ngedatha yaseJapan malunga nokuthengwa kweebond zamanye amazwe kunye nezabelo.
uLwesine kuvulwa ngedatha yase-Australia kwintengiso yokuthengisa kunye nentsalela yorhwebo, ngesigqibo esenziwe kwiveki ephelileyo malunga nenqanaba lenzala ye-Aus, la manani eenkcukacha ezinzima aza kujongwa ngakumbi, ukuqinisekisa ukuba isigqibo sereyithi sihambelana nokusebenza koqoqosho ngokubanzi . Njengoko iimarike zaseYurophu zikulungele ukuvula, i-metric yaseSwitzerland yakutshanje iyakupapashwa, akukho lutshintsho lukhoyo kwi-0.5% yeYo kulindeleke. I-PMI yokwakha yaseJamani iya kutyhilwa, ukufundwa okungu-54.9 kuka-Agasti kufuneka kugcinwe, iMarkit iya kuthi iveze ii-PMI zentengiso zaseJamani, i-Eurozone, iFrance ne-Itali. Idatha ephambili yaseYurophu yosuku iphela ngengxelo yentlanganiso yomgaqo-nkqubo yamva nje epapashiweyo. Kukho ukutyhalwa kwedatha okuxubileyo (kwedatha enzima kwaye ithambileyo), evela e-USA emva kwemini; Ukuncitshiswa komceli mngeni, amabango okungaqeshwa ngeveki, ibhalansi yorhwebo, iiodolo zefektri, iiodolo zempahla ezomeleleyo, ngelixa amagosa amabini eFed enika intetho kwiinkomfa zebhanki nezabasebenzi.
uLwesihlanu ityhila umvuzo waseJapan kunye nemali engenayo, eye yawa ngo-Agasti, zombini ezona zikhokelo ziphambili nezingalinganiyo eJapan ziya kupapashwa. Iiodolo zaseJamani ziya kupapashwa, okwangoku ziqhuba nge-5% yokukhula kweYo, amanani e-MoM kutsha nje athabathe idiphu yonyaka (ezantsi -0.7% ngoJulayi), ukubuyela ekukhuleni kulindelwe. Idatha yokugqibela yaseCanada yengqesho kunye nentswela-ngqesho iya kupapashwa, yomdla othile oza kwinyanga elandelayo emva kokuba ibhanki esembindini yaseCanada inyuse izinga lenzala yayo. Izinga lentswela-ngqesho langoku le-6.2% akulindelekanga ukuba litshintshe.
I-NPF yesiqhelo yenyanga (engeyiyo eyokuhlawulwa kweefama) izakupapashwa ngolwesiHlanu, kulindeleke kuphela imisebenzi emitsha engama-50k kwinyanga yoMsintsi, ngaphantsi kwe-156k eyenziwe ngo-Agasti kwaye ingaphantsi komndilili wenyanga oyi-circa 250k. Ngaphandle kwedatha ye-NFP engakhange ivelise iziqhushumbisi kwiinyanga nje ezidlulileyo (okanye kwiminyaka), oku kungatshintsha ukuba inani eliphantsi elinjalo lithathe abahlalutyi kunye nabatyali mali. Umyinge wemivuzo uqikelelwe ukuba unyuke nge-0.3%, inyuke ukusuka kwi-0.1% ngo-Agasti, enokuthi inyuse ukukhula komvuzo wonyaka, ngaphezulu kwenani lonyaka eli-2.5% lokukhula lonyaka.
« Uthethathethwano lwe-Brexit lubangela ukuba i-sterling kunye ne-euro zibethe, njengoko abatyali zimali baseMelika bezilungisa ngokwabo ukunyuka kwamazinga kunye neQT Ii-PMI ze-UK ze-Eurozone kunye ne-USA, kunye nokufundwa kwe-USA ISM, zenza isiseko seziganeko eziphambili zekhalenda yangoMvulo »
