ISIQINISEKISO SOKUTHENGA NGEVEKI 21/12 - 24/12 | ZIYA KUQHUBA NJANI IIMAKI ZE STOCKS, FX NEZOKUSEBENZA NGEXESHA LEVEKI?
Kwiveki engaphambi kweXmas ngokwesiko lixesha elizolileyo lokurhweba kwi-equity, i-FX, nakwiimarike zorhwebo. Nangona kunjalo, lo ibingengunyaka oqhelekileyo. U-2020 ube yinkcazo yonyaka ongaqhelekanga ngokwenene.
Intlekele yeCoronavirus ilawule ilizwe lethu lezorhwebo ukusukela ngoMatshi, kwaye akukho mntu wayenokuqikelela ukuba i-Black Swan izakufika njani, ukuwa kwentembeko kwintengiso kuluhlu olubanzi lokhuselo olukhokelela kwi-zero-hedge.
Kodwa inkxaso yeza ngokukhawuleza ngohlobo lokukhuthaza okukhulu oorhulumente basentshona kunye neebhanki eziphambili, ukuhambisa iimarike zokulingana ukurekhoda phezulu. I-SPX 500 inyuke nge-14.33% ukuya kuthi ga ngoku kwaye i-NASDAQ 100 inyuke nge-43.83% emangalisayo.
Unyaka omtsha, kunye nolawulo oluncinci kwiNdlu eNtshonalanga
Ngexesha leminyaka edlulileyo abahlalutyi abaninzi bayigcinile incwadi yabo yolawulo lwekhalenda yezoqoqosho kwaye bagxila kwimicimbi enje ngemicimbi yezoqoqosho olukhulu kunye neeTweets zikaTrump. Okwethutyana ngexesha lobongameli, ii-tweets zakhe kunye nokunyathela kwimithombo yeendaba ezilawulwa yimithombo yeendaba.
Umlo ongafunekiyo awukhethe ne China ubangele ukuba iimarike zokulingana ziyekelele ukuthwala iimeko zentengiso ngasekupheleni kuka-2018 ekuqaleni kwe-2019 kunye nexabiso le-USD. Utyhola i-China ngobuqhetseba bemali kwaye waqala ukubetha irhafu enkulu kungeniswa kwamaTshayina eMelika. Iimarike ze-equity zase-US zatshitshiswa kwiminqweno yakhe.
Ubuyakucinga ukuba umntu othile angamhlebela indlebe “Mnumzana Mongameli; asiqinisekanga ukuba oku kuyakusebenza, singenisa uninzi lwempahla zethu e-China, azithengi nto ingako kuthi, ngaphandle kwezolimo zesoya kunye nezilwanyana. Kwaye ukuba bayayeka ukuthenga uyakucaphukisa amafama owawuthembise ukukhusela kwizithembiso zakho zonyulo luka-2016 ”.
Ngokwenyani, uyaligqiba ixesha lakhe lokugcina ibunkered phantsi e-White House etyhola i-Swiss central bank ngokusetyenziswa gwenxa kwemali, kuba i-CHF inyuke nge-8.96% xa ithelekiswa ne-USD ngo-2020. Nangona kunjalo, ukujongwa okukhawulezayo koontanga beedola zase-US kufuneka kutyhile kuTrump ukuba i-euro ifumene phantse i-10% xa ithelekiswa nedola, i-Aussie inyuke nge-9%, i-yen inyuke nge-5%, kwaye i-Dollar Index (DXY) yehlile -7%. Mhlawumbi, engqondweni yakhe, konke kukho iyelenqe.
Njengabahlalutyi, sizama ukuhlala singenamkhethe kwezopolitiko; Nangona kunjalo, akuba uBiden evulwe ngoJanuwari 2021, sonke sinethemba lokuba sijonge phambili kwixesha lozinzo kunye nokuzithemba eMelika. Azisekho iimfazwe zorhwebo, ukufikelela eIran, eVenezuela naseYurophu, ukubuyiselwa kozakuzo lwehlabathi, kunye nokuzibandakanya kwisivumelwano sokutshintsha kwemozulu eParis njengobuncinci.
Isongelo semarike sale veki
Ukuxolisa kwangaphambili ukuvakala njengengxelo ephukileyo kodwa asisodwa ekuhambiseni amagqabantshintshi aphindaphindiweyo kwintengiso mva nje. Imiba emibini ephambili ilawula iimarike; Inkuthazo malunga nokugwetywa yiNdlu yeeNgwevu yaseMelika kunye neBrexit.
Isikhuthazi sisondele kwisivumelwano, amaziko aneenkcukacha zegranular malunga nokuba umntu ngamnye omdala kunye nomntwana wase-US kufuneka afumane malini. Amanye amaSenator aseRiphabhlikhi acinga ukuba ama-600 eedola kumntu ngamnye kwaye ama-500 eedola ngomntwana ngamnye kufuneka onele kwimida yokufaneleka. Amanye amaSenethi acinezela i-1,200 yeedola kumntu ngamnye kunye ne-600 yeedola ngomntwana ngamnye.
Kuyathakazelisa ukuqaphela ukuba i-2.4 trillion yeedola sele yamkelwe yi-govt yase-USA ngeendlela ezahlukeneyo. Uqikelelo lubonisa ukuba isikhuthazo esidityanisiweyo kwiFed kunye noNondyebo (govt) sinokuba phezulu njenge-6 yezigidigidi zeerandi kanye xa u-2020 ephela, iphakamisa ityala lonke lase-US elidlulileyo kwi-125% kwi-GDP.
Yintoni eqinisekileyo, kukuba iintlawulo zovuselelo ziya kufika emva kwexesha kakhulu ukunceda abantu abaninzi baseMelika bonwabele ukuzonwabisa. Ukuthengisa kuthengisile e-US, kwaye uninzi lwabasebenzi aluzukuchitha ngelixa becinga “kulungile, ndiza kuqinisa ibhanti lam ngoJanuwari” kuba abanalo nofifi lokuba bazokusebenza na ngoJanuwari.
Abantu abadala abangamashumi amabini anesihlanu ezigidi baseMelika bafumana uhlobo loncedo lokungabikho kwemisebenzi, i-60% yamakhaya ayinayo imali eyenziweyo, kwaye ngoLwesine enye i-885K yongezwa kwirejista yebango lokungaphangeli ngeveki.
IBrexit; abayi kuvuma kwisivumelwano ngeempelaveki?
Kwimpelaveki ephelileyo bekufanele ukuba sisiqendu sokugqibela "sesona sipho sam sokugqibela, sithathe okanye usishiye" isaga saseBrexit. Kodwa umhla obekiweyo watyibilika, njengoko wenzayo ngo-Okthobha nango-Novemba. I-UK kunye ne-EU bavumile ukuba bathethathethane kule mpelaveki ukuzama ukufumana isisombululo.
Sonke siyazi ukuba umsinga osindisa ubuso uyeza, njengoko i-EU ibonelela i-UK ngophumo olunobabalo, kodwa ingxelo eyenzelwe ukukhohlisa abantu base-UK ayinakwenzeka ukuba iqikelele. Owona uqikelelo kukuba isivumelwano esivulekileyo, esingazibopheleliyo siyapapashwa, kodwa sibanjelwa uJanuwari ukuze kuvotwe kwibhunga le-EU. Yintoni eyenzayo kumhla kaJanuwari 1 weBrexit ukuqikelela kwakhe nabani na.
Imalunga nokukhanya okukhoyo kunye norhulumente wase-UK; bafuna abavoti babo ukuba bababone njengabaphumeleleyo. Kodwa abemi base-UK baphulukana nenkululeko yokuhamba, inkululeko ookhokho babo abayilwela ukuyikhusela. Olu qhawulo mtshato kufuneka lubandakanye ixesha lokulila e-UK; akukho nto yokubhiyozela.
I-Sterling iye yabetha kwiindawo ezahlukeneyo kwezi veki zidlulileyo njengoko uthethathethwano luqhubekile, kwaye kwavela amarhe okuthengiselana. NgoLwesihlanu, nge-18 kaDisemba, i-GBP / USD yayithengisa -0.58%, yenyuka nge-2.15% ngeveki ngenxa yethemba lokuba impumelelo yayikufuphi.
Isibini semali saphule i-DMA ye-50 kwicala eliphantsi kwiveki ephelileyo kodwa lithengise ngaphezulu kwenqanaba ukusukela ekuqaleni kuka-Novemba. Okwangoku ibekwe kwi-1.3200 le ndawo ye-DMA engama-50 kunye nenani elijikelezileyo linokuba yinto ekujoliswe kuyo ukuba uthethathethwano luthe lwawa ngaphandle kwayo nayiphi na indlela yesivumelwano (nangona ikhululekile).
Ukujongwa okukhawulezileyo kwi-EUR / GBP kwitshathi yemihla ngemihla kutyhila ukuba lukhulu kangakanani uluhlu lwe-whipsawing ebelungoDisemba. Kwinqanaba elinye kule veki ukhuseleko luye kwi-100 DMA. I-50 DMA kunye ne-100 DMA yokufa-umnqamlezo wawukufuphi nokwenziwa phakathi evekini njengoko isithuba sokuhamba esiphakathi sasinciphile. NgoLwesihlanu, nge-18 kaDisemba, i-EUR / GBP ithengise nge-0.39% yenyuka nge-6.72% ye-YTD.
Isinyithi esixabisekileyo; indawo ekhuselekileyo unyaka wonke
Ukuba ungumrhwebi, akunakwenzeka ukuba ungazisoli ngorhwebo ongakhange uthathe kulo nyaka. Hayi, ukuba nje besinokungena nje kwi-Zoom kunye neTesla kulo nyaka ngexesha lokuntywila ngo-Matshi okanye sithenge i-NASDAQ 100 njengokubheja okukhuselekileyo.
Ukuhamba igolide kunye nesilivere ende bekuya kuba yindawo yokubheja emva kweenyanga ezinzima. Njengeendawo ezikhuselekileyo, zombini ii-PM ziphakame kakhulu. Igolide inyuke ngama-23% ye-YTD kunye nesilivere engama-43%. Umdibaniso wazo zombini ezi mali, nokuba yeyokwenyama okanye ngebroker yakho, ibonakalise ukuba luluhle kakhulu.
Isilivere ibifunwa ngenxa yokuba i-ounce iyi- $ 26 kwaye iphantsi njenge- $ 12 emva ko-Matshi. Ukufumana i-1,000, 2020 yesinyithi yayilithuba lamaMelika amaninzi (awayengayithandabuzi inkqubo) anokulisebenzisa eli thuba lincinci. Uninzi lwabanye abatyali mali banokutyala imali kwiBitcoin ngo-23,000, efikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu kwiintsuku ezisandula ukwaphula inqanaba lama-XNUMX.
Iminyhadala yempembelelo ephezulu ukujonga kwiveki eqala nge-20 kaDisemba
Ukuqhubela phambili kwiXmas kuhlala kuyiveki ezolileyo yeendaba ezibalulekileyo zekhalenda yezoqoqosho. NgoLwesibini i-UK ipapashe amanani e-GDP akutshanje, kuqikelelwa ukuba aza kutshintshwa ukusuka kwikota edlulileyo nge-15.5% QoQ kunye -9.6% YoY.
Ukufundwa kwe-YoY kuya kunika i-UK njengoqoqosho olubi kakhulu lwe-G7 ngexesha lobhubhane nangona i-GBP yezigidigidi zenkxaso kunye ne-5.5 yezigidi zabasebenzi basahlawulwa ngelixa bekwikhefu elongeziweyo.
Ngokuchasene noko, ukuxelwa kwangaphambili kwe-USA ngama-33% eQoQ GDP ukukhula kwenani, nangona oko kusiza ngexabiso eliphezulu; iCoronavirus ibaleka, ibulala abantu abaphakathi kwe-3,000 ngosuku. NgoLwesithathu kupapashwa iiodolo zokuthengisa ezizinzileyo zeUSA, inkcitho yomntu, ingeniso kunye nedatha entsha yokuthengisa ekhaya, ukufundwa okuya kuthi kubonelele ngokuzithemba komthengi.
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