I-WEEKLY SNAPSHOT 19/2 - 23/2 | Inani lokukhula kwe-GDP yamva nje e-UK kunye nokukhutshwa kwemizuzu yokusetha i-FOMC iya kuba yeyona nto ibukelweyo kakhulu kule veki izayo.
Uqoqosho lwase-UK (ngokuphikisayo) lubambe kakuhle kwimpembelelo embi enokubakho yeBrexit. Inani langoku lokukhula kwe-YOY yi-1.5% kwaye ngelixa ikukuhla kumanani aphakathi kwe-2.7% -2.0% ilizwe elinike ingxelo ngayo ngo-2015/2016, iArmagedon yoqoqosho abaninzi eyayiqikelele emva kwevoti yohlolo, ayikabikho. Nangona kunjalo, ngewotshi ephumayo ukuya kumhla wokuphuma ngo-Matshi ka-2019, indawo kunye nezigqibo zorhwebo kufuneka zenziwe ngamaqumrhu amakhulu kunye neemvakalelo zabathengi zinokuqala ukubandezeleka, ngenxa yoko ukukhula kunokuba buthathaka kwiinyanga ezizayo. Sinokulindela ukusabela okumangalisayo ukuba inani le-1.5% liphuculwe, apho abahlalutyi abaninzi baqikelela. Inani le-GDP yaseJamani nalo liza kujongwa, ngokuqikelelwa kwangaphambili ukuba ufundo luhlala luphezulu kwi-2.90%.
Ngaphandle kokunika ingxelo ngee-PMIs kunye nedatha ye-CPI kuqoqosho olwahlukeneyo kunye ne-EZ, umsitho oshiyekileyo weveki ubandakanya ukupapashwa kwemizuzu yentlanganiso yokugqibela yomgaqo-mali we-FOMC, ingxelo eya kuhlalutywa ukuchonga nawaphi na amazwi aphikisayo kwi-FOMC. I-FOMC/Fed isikhokelo sangoku esihamba phambili ngokumalunga nomhla wokuqalisa kwexabiso lenzala elicwangcisiweyo lenyuka ngo-2018 kunye nakuphi na ukuqiniswa kobungakanani obunokubakho.
iCawa iqala iveki yethu ngedatha evela eJapan, kubandakanya neyamva nje: ibhalansi yorhwebo, idatha yokungenisa kunye nokuthumela ngaphandle. Njengomthumeli-mpahla ngaphandle wase-Japan uqhuba intsalela yorhwebo, ingeyiyo intsilelo kwaye ngaphandle kokhuphiswano oluvela e-China, e-USA naseJamani, i-Japan isengumthumeli-mpahla ngaphandle obalulekileyo. Ukuza kuthi ga kuDisemba inani lokukhula kwe-YoY belincomeka kakhulu nge-9.3% kwaye abahlalutyi baya kujonga le pateni yokukhula ukuze igcinwe.
uMvulo kusasa iqala ngeemetrics zobisi ifandesi yenyanga evela New Zealand, a barometer esweni ngononophelo lwempilo yezoqoqosho e NZ, kunikwa ukuthembela eli lizwe kweli candelo ukukhula kumazwe angaphandle. Intengiso yendlu yase-UK iphantsi koqwalaselo, njengoko iRightmove ipapasha uvavanyo lwabo lwamva nje lwexabiso lokubuza ngoMvulo kusasa. Ukuthengwa kwebhondi yaseJapan kuya kujongwa kwakhona, ngakumbi njengoko ukukhula kwe-GDP yaseJapan kuncitshisiwe ukuya kwi-0.10% QoQ, ngokunokwenzeka ukubuyisela umva naziphi na iingcinga zokucutha ukusebenza kweemarike kunye nokunciphisa ukuvuselela imali. Njengoko iimarike zaseYurophu zivula, i-Eurozone yangoku i-surplus ye-akhawunti iya kupapashwa kwaye imveliso yokwakha ye-bloc yemali enye nayo iya kutyhilwa, enyuke yaya kutsho kwi-2.7% YoY ngoDisemba.
On uLwesibini kusasa kukho ingqokelela yedatha yaseJapan yokubeka iliso, kubandakanya ukuthengiswa kweevenkile ezinkulu, iintengiso zevenkile yesebe, intengiso yeevenkile eziluncedo kunye nemiyalelo yesixhobo somatshini. Njengoko iimarike zaseYurophu zivula, amanani aseSwitzerland okungenisa nokuthumela ngaphandle akhululwa, kulandela ingxelo yesalathiso samaxabiso sabavelisi baseJamani. Uphando lwamva nje lwe-ZEW luyanikezelwa, apho ugxininiso oluphambili luya kuba kufundo lweemvakalelo kunye nezinto ezilindelweyo. Ukufundwa kokuzithemba kwabathengi be-Eurozone ngoFebruwari kuya kutyhilwa kwakhona. Umbutho wamva nje wokurhweba wase-UK i-CBI iya kupapasha iindlela zayo zamva nje zeeodolo kunye namaxabiso okuthengisa.
On uLwesithathu kusasa, isalathiso samaxabiso emivuzo yase-Australia kunye nomsebenzi wokwakha owenziweyo kukhutshwa, i-raft yedatha yeziphumo zokuthengwa kwebhondi yaseJapan nayo iya kuhanjiswa. Ufundo lwawo onke amashishini luya kupapashwa. Njengoko ingqalelo iphendukela eYurophu iinkonzo zenyanga, imveliso kunye neenkonzo ze-PMIs zase-Italiya, eJamani kunye ne-EZ ebanzi iya kubonelela ngokufunda okunomdla. Ukusuka e-UK iqela leziphumo zokungaqeshwa, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso emivuzo, amanqanaba emboleko karhulumente kunye neemali zoluntu ziya kukhululwa. Njengoko iimarike zase-USA zivulwa, iMarkit the PMIs yokwenziwa kwelizwe, iinkonzo kunye necomposite ziya kuhanjiswa, iimetriki zentengiso yamakhaya nazo ziya kukhutshwa. Abatyali-mali baya kugxila ekukhululweni kwemizuzu kwintlanganiso ye-FOMC yamva nje, eyona nto ibaluleke kakhulu inikwe uvakalelo lwamva nje lwemarike malunga ne-equity stock market ithengisa kwaye iphinde ibuyiselwe.
uLwesine iqala ngolwazi lwenkcitho yekhadi letyala laseNew Zealand, iYoY kunye neMoM. Njengoko iimarike zaseYurophu zivula, ufundo lwaseJamani lwe-IFO lwamva nje luyatyhilwa, njengoko kunjalo ngemveliso yaseSwitzerland. Ugxininiso luya kuphendukela ekufundeni kwe-GDP yakutsha yase-UK, kwi-1.5% abatyali-mali be-YoY baya kujonga oku ngokucophelela naziphi na iimpawu zobuthathaka bezoqoqosho. Ikota yamva nje yokuthumela ngaphandle kunye nedatha yokungenisa i-UK iya kujongwa ngokusondeleyo, kwi-0.7% ye-Q3 2017, ukulindela ukuba i-pound ye-Brexit ebuthakathaka iya kuvuselela ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle, kubonakala kungenasiseko.
Kwinjikalanga exakekileyo yeendaba zekhalenda yezoqoqosho yase-USA, amabango amatsha eveki nganye angenamsebenzi kunye nedatha yamabango eqhubekayo iya kujongwa ngenxa yengqesho kunye nedatha yokunyuka kwemivuzo ibe sisihloko esishushu sotyalo-mali. Idatha yamva nje yeoli kunye nepetroli iya kufakwa phantsi kovavanyo, njengoko i-WTI isandula ukuntywila phantsi kwe-60 yeedola kwinqanaba lomphanda. Usuku luphela ngamanani amva nje e-CPI yaseJapan ngenyanga nangonyaka ngonyaka, amanani e-YoY kulindeleke ukuba angene nge-1.0% YoY ukuya kutsho kuJanuwari.
On uLwesihlanu ukuthengwa kwebhondi yaseJapan yamva nje kuya kubekwa esweni ngononophelo, njengoko iimarike zaseYurophu zivula iqoqo ledatha yaseJamani kubandakanya imfuno, inkcitho, utyalo-mali kunye nokusetyenziswa okuya kujongwa ngokusondeleyo, njengoko kuya kuba manani okungenisa, ukuthumela ngaphandle kunye neGDP yamva nje. Inani lamva nje le-Eurozone CPI linokubonelela ngemikhondo malunga nokucotha kwe-ECB kufuneka icuthe i-APP yokunciphisa imali. ICanada isezindabeni, njengoko uthotho lwamva nje lwamanani e-CPI lusasazwa. Imisitho yekhalenda yeveki iphela ngokubalwa kwe-Baker Hughes rig, i-metric ehlala ibukelwe, ngokunxulumene nexabiso leoli ye-WTI.
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