ISIQINISEKISO SOKUTHENGA NGEVEKI 01/02 - 05/02 | IZALATHISO ZOKULINGANISELA ZOKULINGANISA ZIWELA PHEZU KWENKQUBO YERIPHOPHILE YE-GDP YOKUBA I-Q4 IYA KUNGCONO KODWA KULINDELEKILEYO
Kwakuyiveki ye-GDPs kule veki. Ukufundwa kokugqibela kwe-GDP kuqoqosho lwase-USA ngo-2020 kungene ngama- -3.5%, owona msebenzi ubi kakhulu ukusukela ngo-1946 orekhodwe emva kwempembelelo ye-WW2.
I-metric ye-Q4 yokukhula kwe-GDP yase-US ifike nge-4%, kanye kuqikelelo kunye nokubuyela umva ukusuka kwi-33% ye-COVID-19 yokubuyisela kwinqanaba lokurekhodwa kwi-Q3 ngaphambi kokuba i-US iqale ukuphinda ibeke amanye amacandelo oqoqosho (noluntu).
NgoLwesihlanu kusasa, iFrance neJamani bapapasha amanani e-GDP e-Q4 2020. Abahlalutyi kunye nabarhwebi bebejonge kule datha ukubonisa isantya sokubuyiselwa kwe-Eurozone.
IJamani yamangalisa iimarike ngokuthumela i-0.1% yokukhula kwe-Q4, nangona ngo-2020 uqoqosho lwancipha ngo -5%. IFransi irekhode i -1.3% yokuncipha kwi-Q4, ingcono kunokuqikelela kwe -4% kwaye iza emva kwerekhodi le-18% lokukhula kwi-Q3. I-GDP yaseSpain ikwabetha uqikelelo, iza ngo-0.3% ukukhula kwikota yokugqibela ye-2020.
Nangona kunjalo, iFrance neJamani zakutshanje zokutshixwa kwesibetho ziqokelelene ngamandla ngasekupheleni kukaDisemba; Ke ngoko, amanani e-GDP akutshanje akanako ukukhomba kuhlaziyo oluzinzileyo. I-Q1 2021 metric iyakuba mbi ngenxa yomjikelo omtsha wokutshixwa kuyo yonke indawo yokurhweba kunye nommandla obanzi we-EU. Njengase-UK, i-France ne-Jamani nazo zijamelene noqoqosho olungenakuphepheka kwi-Q1 2021.
I-indices ze-equity indices ziye zalala xa iimarike zivulwa ngolwesiHlanu kodwa zafumana kancinci kancinci emva kokuba kupapashwe idatha ye-Eurozone GDP. Nge-9: 30 kusasa e-UK xa i-DAX ithengise -0.77%, i-CAC -0.88% kunye ne-UK FTSE 100 phantsi -0.69%. I-DAX kunye ne-CAC ngoku zorhwebo kumhlaba ongalunganga unyaka nonyaka, ngelixa i-FTSE 100 inyuke nge-0.50%.
Ixesha elizayo kwiimarike zezabelo ze-US zikhomba ekuweni xa iNew York ivula ngale mvakwemini, i-SPX 500 ithengise -1.04% kunye ne-NASDAQ 100 phantsi -1.53%. Ukuba loo manqanaba agcina kwimarike evulekile, ezi ntengiso zaseMelika ziya kuguqula unyaka nonyaka. Ngeveki i-SPX iphantsi -2.35%, kwaye i-NASDAQ iphantsi -2.55%.
Ukuthengiswa okuphakathi kwale veki kwiimarike ezininzi zasentshona kunokubangelwa zizinto ezine.
- Umhlangano wokuhlangula weBiden ugqityiwe. Abahlalutyi kunye nabatyali mali bacinga ngemisebenzi emikhulu ekufuneka umongameli ayenze kwezoqoqosho nakwezoluntu, ngelixa ehambisa izitofu kumakhulu ezigidi zabemi baseMelika.
- Ukutshixeka okwahlukeneyo kwenxalenye eYurophu nase-USA kuye kwarhwebeshela nakuphi na ukubuyela kwimeko yesiqhelo. Okwangoku, iimpikiswano ezingenasidima malunga nonikezelo lonyango kunye nokuhanjiswa ziye zaqhambuka phakathi kwe-UK ne-EU.
- Ukuthatha inzuzo kunokwenzeka. Emva kokukhula okubonakalayo okwenzeka ngo-2020, ngekhe kumangalise ukuba uninzi lwabatyali mali (ngakumbi abatyali mali abathengisayo) bethenga iichips zabo kwaye bemka etafileni.
- Ukunyuka okukhulu kwintengiso yemini yokuthengisa kunokuba yinto ephumayo. Uninzi lwabarhwebi baseMelika bafikelele kwimakethi yokukhetha ngokusebenzisa amaqonga e-gamified anje ngeRobin Hood's ukunceda ukutyhala isitokhwe (ngakumbi isitokhwe sobuchwephesha) kwiindawo eziphakamileyo zestatospheric. Ngoku ukuba umvuzo uyapapashwa kuya kusiba nzima ngakumbi ukuthethelela amaxabiso ngokusekwe kwixabiso elifanelekileyo lokufumana umvuzo.
I-USD iyenyuka ngeveki ngelixa ioyile ekrwada igcina iinzuzo zayo zamva nje
Idola yaseMelika irekhode inzuzo ebalulekileyo xa ithelekiswa noontanga bayo phakathi evekini. Abatyalomali kunye nabarhwebi kwi-USD bakhuthazwe ngusihlalo weFederal Reserve uJerome Powell kwiingxelo zamva nje ngokubhekisele kumgaqo-nkqubo wezemali anqwenela ukuwugcina. I-Fed ayonyusi inkqubo yokuthenga-ukuthenga / ye-QE kwaye uMnu Powell ukwabonakalisile ukuba akukho lutshintsho kumyinge wenzala we-0.25% kwixesha eliphakathi.
Isalathiso sedola i-DXY ibinyuke nge-0.27% ngexesha leseshoni yangoLwesihlanu kwaye inyuka nge-0.57% ngeveki, igcina isikhundla ngaphezulu kwesitshixo se-90.00 yokuphatha kwinqanaba kwi-90.70. I-EUR / USD iphantsi -0.54% ngeveki ngelixa urhweba kufutshane neflethi kwaye ikufuphi nepivot pint yemihla ngemihla ngexesha leseshoni yangoLwesihlanu ye-London-European.
I-GBP / i-USD inikezele ngeenzuzo ezirekhodiweyo phakathi evekini ezantsi -0.11%. Kwiseshoni yangoLwesihlanu yokuqala isibini semali sithengise -0.38% ngelixa sisongela ulwaphulo-mthetho S1.
Isibheno esikhuselekileyo se-JPY kunye ne-CHF siphelile kule veki. I-USD / JPY inyuke nge-1.09% ngeveki inyuke nge-0.51% ngosuku. I-USD / CHF inyuke nge-0.53% ngeveki kwaye inyuke nge-0.10% ngosuku. I-USD ikwabuyisele umva ilahleko yamva nje xa kuthelekiswa zombini iimali ezichaseneyo nale veki; I-AUD / i-USD iphantsi -0.90%, kwaye i-NZD / i-USD iphantsi -0.22% ngeveki.
I-oyile ekrwada inyuke kakhulu ngo-2021. Amafutha okukhula kwehlabathi anyuke nge-8.25% ye-YTD kunye ne-8.54% ngenyanga. Oko kunyuka kuye kwacotha kule veki, kunciphise kubuyela kwi-0.48%. Iimarike ziye zafaka iimpahla kwisithuba seenyanga zasebusika kwaye zithunyelwa eYurophu naseMelika, kwaye ngokwembono ye-IMF kule veki ukukhula kwehlabathi ngekhe kubuye de kube kugqitywe izitofu kwaye kungqinwe ukuba ziyasebenza.
Izinyithi ezixabisekileyo ziye zafumana ubutyebi obuxubekileyo kule veki. Igolide ithengisa kufutshane neflethi ngeveki, phantsi -0.06% kodwa inyuke nge-0.76% ngolwesiHlanu nge-1,853 yeedola ngeyunce. Isilivere inyuke kakhulu kule veki, inyuke nge-6.18% ngeveki kwaye inyuke nge-2.31% ngolwesiHlanu ukurhweba nge- $ 26.95 ngeyunce.
Imicimbi yekhalenda yokubeka iliso kwiveki eqala ngeCawa, eyoMqungu 31
On NgoMvulo, ngoFebruwari 1, ii-PMIs ezininzi zokuvelisa ii-PMIs zeYurophu ziyapapashwa. I-Itali, iFrance, iJamani kunye nendawo ebanzi ye-Eurozone kufuneka ibonise ukuwa ngoJanuwari.
UMarkit ukwaqikelela ukuba i-UK ityhile ukuwa. Nangona kunjalo, onke amazwe afundwayo kufuneka ahlale ngaphezulu kwamanqanaba angama-50 ahlulahlula uxinzelelo ekukhuleni. Ukuvunywa kwempahla mboleko, ikhredithi yabathengi kunye nedatha yamaxabiso endlu iyapapashwa e-UK ngexesha leseshoni yakusasa, kwaye zontathu ezi zifundo kufuneka zihlale zikufutshane namanani angaphambili.
Ii-PMM zokwenza ii-PMIs zeCanada kunye ne-USA ziya kupapashwa emva kwemini. Inkcitho kulwakhiwo e-USA inokwehla iye kwi-0.5% xa kupapashwa inani likaDisemba.
Idola yeAussie iza kujongwa ngexesha NgoLwesibini Iseshoni yaseSydney njengoko i-RBA ityhila isigqibo sayo senqanaba lenzala. Ireyithi kufuneka ihlale ingatshintshanga kwi-0.1%.
Njengoko iseshoni yaseLondon-yaseYurophu ivula, amanani e-GDP e-Itali akutshanje aya kupapashwa. Abahlalutyi baqikelela ukuwa konyaka-nge-5.8% kunye ne-Q2 2020 ye--2.3%. I-Reuters iqikelela ukwehla kwi-GDP ye-EA ukuya -6.0% ngo-2020 kunye ne--2.2% ye-Q4.
Iinkonzo zee-PMI zaseYurophu ziya kwabelwana ngexesha NgoLwesithathu Iseshoni yaseLondon naseYurophu. IFransi, iSpain, i-Itali kunye ne-EA ziya kubonisa ukuwa ngokwabahlalutyi baseReuters naseBloomberg.
Iinkonzo ze-PMI zase-UK ziya kuba nokwehla okubalulekileyo, kuqikelelwa ukuba kuza kufika i-38.8 ngoJanuwari, iwele ukusuka kwi-49.4 ngoDisemba. Ukuwa okunjalo kunokuba nefuthe kwixabiso le-GBP xa kuthelekiswa noontanga bayo xa idatha isasazwa. Ngokutsho kwabahlalutyi, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso eYurophu kunganyuka kuye kwi-0.1% ngonyaka kwaye kunyuke nge-0.5% ngoJanuwari.
Ukufundwa kweenkonzo zeMarkit ze-USA kufuneka kubonise ukuphuculwa ngoJanuwari, kwaye ukudityaniswa kungangena kuma-58, ngaphezulu ngaphezulu kwamanqanaba angama-50 okwandiswa kokucuthwa. Inombolo yengqesho ye-ADP iqikelelwe kwi-50K, uphuculo olubonakalayo xa kuthelekiswa nokufunda -123K ngaphambili. Ukudityaniswa kweMarkit esempilweni eyongeziweyo ekukhuthazeni amanani emisebenzi kunokuba nefuthe elifanelekileyo kwixabiso le-USD xa kuthelekiswa noontanga.
Ii-PMI zokwakha ziyahanjiswa uLwesine iJamani ne-UK, ulwakhiwo alukayeki ngexesha lokutshixwa kwe-UK; Ke ngoko, ukufundwa kuya kuhlala ngaphezulu kwama-50 kuma-54.6 ngokokutsho kwabahlalutyi. I-Bhanki yaseNgilani yase-UK iyakutyhila isigqibo samva senzala kwaye icebise ukuba akukho lutshintsho kwinkqubo yeQE. Imiba yomgaqo-lawulo wemali kufuneka ihlale ingatshintshanga.
Inani lamabango angenamsebenzi eveki ngeveki e-US aziswa yi-BLS ngoLwesine emva kwemini, ukufundwa kwamva nje kuye kwawa ngaphantsi kwe-900K ngeveki, kwaye sinethemba lokuba le meko iya kuqhubeka nokubonisa ukwehla. Ngokwabahlalutyi, iiodolo zasefektri kufuneka zibonise iimpawu zokuphucula; umlinganiso uya kunyuka ukusuka kwi-1% ukuya kwi-1.7% ngoJanuwari. Ithemba eliveliswe ngala manani mabini linokuba nefuthe elifanelekileyo kwixabiso le-USD.
On uLwesihlanu Siza kufumana idatha yesibini ye-NFP yowama-2021. Emva kwenani likaJanuwari elinemisebenzi yamaxesha onyaka kaDisemba, ekaFebruwari iya kuba yeyokwenyani ngokubhekisele kwimisebenzi eyenziweyo kuqoqosho olukhulu kwihlabathi. Abahlalutyi baqikelela kuphela imisebenzi eyi-80K eyenziweyo, ephucula ukothuka -140K ilahleko yemisebenzi ebhalwe ngaphambili. Izinga lokungabikho kwemisebenzi e-US kufuneka lihlale kwi-6.7%, ngelixa elaseCanada kufuneka lihle ukusuka kwi-8.8% ukuya kwi-8.7%. Idatha yomzi-mveliso yakutshanje evela eJamani, ibhalansi yaseFrance kwezorhwebo, ukuthengiswa kweentengiso zase-Itali, kunye namaxabiso ezindlu zase-UK (ngokwebhanki yeSizwe) kukufundwa okunokuchaphazela ixabiso le-EUR kunye ne-GBP ukuba iziphumo ziyaphoswa okanye zibethe iingqikelelo zabahlalutyi.
« IWall Street ichacha ngaphandle kwesivumelwano esibi e-US nge -3.5%, esona sifundo sibi ukusukela ngee-1940 Abatyalomali aboyikayo kunye nabarhwebi baya kujonga imiyalelo yomgaqo-lawulo wemali kwiFed, BoE kunye neRBA ukuxhasa uluvo »
