I-dollar yase-US iya kuhlolwa ngokukhawuleza ngoLwesithathu, njengoko i-FOMC ibhengeza isigqibo sayo sokugqibela senzala ye-2017.
Kwi-19: 00 pm GMT, ngoLwesithathu ngo-Disemba 13th, i-FOMC iya kubonisa isigqibo sayo samva nje kwizinga lenzala ephambili ye-USA. Okwangoku kwi-1.25% imbono yokuvumelana ngokubanzi, eqokelelwe kwii-economists ezixutywe ngamaziko eendaba iReuters kunye neBloomberg, kukuba izinga eliphambili (eliphezulu) liya kunyuka kwi-1.5%. Ukunyuka kwesithathu kulo nyaka kuya kugqiba ukuzibophelela kwe-FOMC / Fed ekunyuseni amaxabiso ngokuphindwe kathathu kwi-2017, iqala inkqubo yokulungelelanisa, enokuthi ibone izinga elisisiseko lokunyuka kwi-3% kwi-2018.
Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku uqoqosho lwase-USA kunye neemarike zezabelo zamashishini ezingenanzala emisiweyo zihlangabezane kakuhle kakhulu nokunyuka kwenzala ka-2017, nto leyo ephikisana nenkolelo evakaliswa ngabanye abahlalutyi yokuba nakuphi na ukunyuka okubalulekileyo kungonakalisa ukuvuseleleka koqoqosho lwase-USA. isibhambathiso sikaTrump; ukwenza ucutho olumandla lwerhafu, oluya kuthi ubukhulu becala kwaye bube luncedo kakhulu kwiinkampani ezityebileyo, uye wachasa naziphi na iziphumo zezinga lenzala, kunye neemarike ezithile zezabelo zamashishini ezingenanzala emisiweyo, ezifana ne-SPX, ezinikezela ngembuyekezo yonyaka emalunga nama-20%.
Idola yaseMelika ayikakonwabelanga ukukhula xa ithelekiswa noontanga bayo abaphambili ngo-2017, nangona izinga lenzala liyenyuka idola iye yawa ngokuchasene ne-sterling kunye ne-euro ngo-2017 kwaye isondele kwi-flat xa ithelekiswa ne-yen. I-GPB / i-USD yehla kwi-1.19 ngoJanuwari, kodwa ibuyele kwincopho ye-2017 ye-circa 1.36, ngoku ithengisa malunga ne-approx. 1.33. Ngelixa ukuchacha kweponti yase-UK kubangelwe kumothuko we-brexit ophuma ngumphunga, abahlalutyi abaninzi bakholelwa ukuba ukunyuka kwezinga le-Fed bekuya kubangela ixabiso eliphezulu ledola. Ngokufanayo i-EUR / i-USD yawela kwi-circa 1.04 ekuqaleni kwe-2017, ukuphakama kwi-circa 1.21 ngo-Agasti, ngelixa i-ECB igcina izinga layo eliphambili kwi-zero kwaye iqhubekile ne-APS yabo (iskimu sokuthengwa kwempahla).
Ukuzibophelela kukaTrump ekubandakanyeni uvuselelo olukhulu lwezemali, kuqukwa neskimu sohlaziyo lweziseko ezingundoqo esingabonwanga kumashumi eminyaka, yayisesona sizathu sibekwe phambili ngabahlalutyi abaninzi, ngenxa yokunqongophala kwamandla kwedola yaseMelika. Iprojekthi ebonakala iwile kwi-radar yeRiphabhlikhi njengoko i-2017 iphela.
Uluvo luyahluka malunga nefuthe nakuphi na ukunyuka kwezinga elinokuba nalo kwidola yaseMelika, ukuba ukunyuka kubhengezwe ngoLwesithathu ngokuhlwa. Abahlalutyi abathile banoluvo lokuba umphumo sele uchazwe kwiimarike zeFX, ngenxa yokuba ngokukhokelwa phambili i-Fed / FOMC sele isele i-telegraphed isigqibo, ngoko ke nayiphi na intshukumo yeedola iya kuqulethwe ngokufanelekileyo. Abanye abahlalutyi banoluvo lokuba idola inokunyuka, ukuba isigqibo sokunyuka kwezinga sihamba kunye ne-hawkish press release, ebonisa ukuqiniswa ngakumbi komgaqo-mali wezemali kwi-2018, ngokunyuka kwezinga lenzala kunye nokuqiniswa kobuninzi.
Nangona kunjalo, ukuba ingxelo ye-dovish ihanjiswa, kunye ne-FOMC iphakamisa indlela ethambileyo, ethambileyo ngo-2018; ukunyusa amaxabiso kunye nokukhulula / ukuntywila kwi-balance sheet ye-4.5 yetriliyoni ye-XNUMX yetriliyoni ngendlela elumke kakhulu, ngoko impendulo yedola inokuthuliswa. Makuqatshelwe kwakhona ukuba imizuzu epheleleyo yentlanganiso ayisayi kukhutshwa de kube nguJanuwari.
Njengamaxesha onke, abarhwebi baya kucetyiswa ukuba babeke iliso kwizikhundla zabo zeedola kunye nokuvezwa ngaphambi, ngexesha kwaye ngokukhawuleza emva kokuba isigqibo seFOMC senziwe esidlangalaleni. Zonke iindlela eziqhelekileyo zolawulo olusebenzayo kufuneka zisetyenziswe, umngcipheko kunye nohlengahlengiso lokuyeka ngokukodwa.
EZINGUNDOQO EZIBALULEKILEYO IZALATHISI ZOQOQOSHO ZE-USA.
• Ukukhula kweGDP yi-3.3%.
• Ixabiso lentengo ngu-2%.
Umyinge wenzala 1.25%.
• Inqanaba lokungaphangeli 4.1%.
• Ukukhula komvuzo 3.2%.
• Ityala likaRhulumente v GDP 106%.
• I-PMI edibeneyo ye-54.5.
• Intengiso kwintengiso 4.6%.
« I-Sterling ityibilika njengomphathiswa wase-UK ebuyela umva kwisivumelwano se-Brexit, i-equites yase-USA yabeka enye irekhodi ephezulu, idola yaseMelika iyanyuka, njengoko ukunyuka kwenzala kubonakala kubhengezwe ngoLwesithathu. I-Brexit, ifuthe layo elidlulileyo, langoku kunye nexesha elizayo kwixabiso leponti yase-UK »
