Amanani akutshanje okunyuka kwamaxabiso eTshayina naseMelika aya kujongisiswa, kwiveki yokuqala epheleleyo yezorhwebo ka-2018.
Iveki yokuqala yokuthengisa epheleleyo yamangqina ka-2018 ukubuyela kwimisitho yekhalenda yezoqoqosho ngokwesiko: I-FX, ukulingana kunye neemarike zorhwebo. Yiveki exakekileyo yeTshayina, i-USA kunye nedatha yaseYurophu, kubandakanya amanani okunyuka kwamaxabiso, ngakumbi iChina ne-USA. Amanani emveliso yamva nje e-UK aya kuhlalutywa ngononophelo, kuyo nayiphi na imiqondiso yokuba buthathaka kuqoqosho njengoko ijongene neBrexit ekuqaleni kuka-2019. Amanani amva nje eJamani okungenisa kunye nokuthumela kumazwe angaphandle aza kupapashwa, kunye nokukhula kwemveliso yoshishino, ebekwe esweni ngononophelo ngenxa kwinxalenye yeJamani njengenjini yokukhula eYurophu. Iindlela ezahlukileyo ze-PPI ze-USA ziya kutyhilwa, ezinokuthi zibonise kwangoko malunga nalo naliphi na inani lokunyuka kwamaxabiso kuqoqosho lwaseUSA.
iCawa iqala iveki ngenani lolondolozo lwangaphandle lwamva nje lwase China, ulindelo lokwehla kancinci ukuya kwi-3,115b yeedola ngoDisemba. NgoMvulo kusasa sifumana i-metric yotyalo-mali lwangaphandle lwangaphandle kwi-China, okwangoku kwi-90.7% akukho lindelo lukhulu kulo naluphi na utshintsho olubalulekileyo. I-odolo yaseJamani efektri ibonakalise inani elikhuthazayo lokukhula ngonyaka nge-6.9% ukuya kuNovemba 2017, kulindelwe ukuba eli nani ligcinwe. I-CPI yaseSwitzerland ngoku isebenza nge-0.8%, inani elingenakuguqulwa lakukhutshwa ixabiso likaDisemba. Ngokudityaniswa neenkcukacha zedipozithi zamva nje ezivela kwiibhanki zaseSwitzerland, omabini la manani anokuchaphazela ixabiso le-franc yaseSwitzerland, ukuba iimitha ziyaphoswa okanye uqikelelo lubalaseleyo.
Iqela lokufundwa kokuzithemba kwe-Eurozone lipapashwe ngoMvulo; Umthengi, umzi mveliso, ishishini kunye notyalomali, nangona zibekwa ngokungqongqo njengempembelelo ephantsi, ukufunda okunyukayo kubekwa esweni ngokusondeleyo. Intengiso kwintengiso kwi-Eurozone ewele kumhlaba ongalunganga ngo-Novemba, ufundo lukaDisemba kufuneka lube lolulungileyo kwaye lubenempembelelo yokunyuka kwenani le-YoY, ngaphezulu kwe-0.4% ebhalwe ngo-Novemba. Njengoko ingqalelo ijikela e-USA ukufundwa okuphambili kosuku yikhredithi yabathengi; Kuqikelelwa ukuba yehle kwi-18b yeedola ngo-Novemba ukusuka kwi- $ 20.5b ngo-Okthobha Inani lenyanga ezayo kunokwenzeka ukuba lonyuke, ngenxa yexesha lenkcitho yomthengi.
uLwesibini iqala ngentengiso yendlu evela kwi-NZ, eye yawa ngokumangalisayo -8.9% YoY ukuya kuDisemba. I-Japan eyinyani yemali yokufumana umvuzo kulindeleke ukuba ihambe kakubi ngo-Novemba ngo -0.1%. Ngomvuzo wemali oyi-0.6% yoY. Ukuzithemba kwabathengi eJapan kulindeleke ukuba kunyuke kancinci ukuya kuma-45. Ukuvunywa kwezakhiwo e-Australia kuye kwanda kakhulu kwi-YoY, inyuke nge-18.4% ukuya ku-Novemba, amanani akutshanje ka-Disemba akulindelwanga ukuba acothe kakhulu. Ukufundwa kokungaphangeli kwabantu baseSwitzerland ngoDisemba kulindeleke ukuba kuhlala kungatshintshi kwi-3.2%, ukuthengiswa kweentengiso kwehle kakhulu eSwitzerland ngo-Novemba, kwehla -3%, kulindeleke ukuphuculwa kwamaxesha athile.
Imveliso yaseJamani kwimveliso yehla ngokungalindelekanga ngo-Novemba ngo -1.4%, kunye ne-2.7% yeYOY, uphuculo olulindelweyo. Ibhalansi yaseJamani yorhwebo ngoNovemba kunye nentsalela yeakhawunti yangoku kuqikelelwa ukuba iphuculwe ngaphezulu kwe-18b ye-Okthobha yokufunda. Ukuthunyelwa kwelinye ilizwe kunye nokungenisa elizweni iimethrikhi zaseJamani kupapashiwe. Elona zinga liphela le-Eurozone yentswela-ngqesho okwangoku ikwi-8.8%, elona xesha lide ukuza kuthi ga ngoku kwinqanaba likaNovemba liqikelelwa ukuba liza kuhlala lingatshintshi.
Ngolwesithathu Iqela ledatha yaseTshayina lipapashiwe, kubandakanya nemali mboleko eyenziwe kwiYuan ngoDisemba kunye neyona nani intsha yeCPI, okwangoku ikwi-1.7% uqikelelo kukunyuka ukuya kwi-1.9%. Impembelelo ephezulu yedatha yaseTshayina inefuthe elincinci kakhulu kubulungisa behlabathi nakwiimarike zeFX mva nje, ngaphandle kokuba inani elikhutshiweyo liyothuka. Njengoko kugxilwe ekuvulekeni kweemarike zaseYurophu, kupapashwa imizuzu yomgaqo-nkqubo wezezimali we-ECB / intlanganiso yokumisela ireyithi, abatyali mali baya kuhlalutya umxholo nakuphi na ukukhokela phambili, ngokunxulumene nokwehliswa kwe-APP (inkqubo yokuthengwa kweeasethi), ngaphezulu kwaye ngaphezulu kokuzibophelela esele kwenziwe, okanye imikhondo ngokubhekisele kwinqanaba lokunyuka kwenzala kwi-2018.
Yiseshoni exakeke kakhulu yedatha yase-UK ngoLwesithathu, amanani: kwimveliso, kwimveliso nakwimveliso yokwakha inokubonisa kunye nokuhlala ixesha elide kwamathandabuzo kunye nomonakalo weBrexit. Iintsilelo zorhwebo ezahlukeneyo ngoNovemba nazo ziyapapashwa e-UK, njengoko kunjalo ngoqikelelo lwe-NIESR lwakutsha nje lwe-UK yokukhula kwe-GDP, uqikelelo lwangaphambili yayingu-0.5% QoQ.
NgoLwesithathu lukwalusuku oluxakeke kakhulu kupapasho lwekhalenda yezoqoqosho e-USA kunye neziganeko; ukungenisa amaxabiso, amaxabiso okuthumela kwelinye ilizwe, uluhlu lwempahla kunye nokuthengisa urhwebo. Uluhlu lweerhasi ezingafunekiyo kunye negesi ukuya kuthi ga kuJanuwari 5 ziya kupapashwa kwaye i-WTI yophula i-61 yeedola kwisitya okokuqala ukusukela ngo-2015, inani le-oyile ye-oyile liza kujongwa ngeliso elibukhali. I-USA Fed igosa laseBullard liza kwenza intetho ngombono wezoqoqosho e-USA, eSt.
uLwesine Amangqina amanani athengiswayo okuthengisa e-Australia asandula ukwenziwa e-Australia apapashwe, kulindeleke ukuba ahambise ukufundwa okufanayo nenqanaba lokukhula le-0.5% elityhilwe ngo-Okthobha. Intengiso yamva nje yaseJapan iyakwenzeka ngolwesine kusasa, emva koko kupapashwa ii-indices eziphambili nezingqinelanayo zaseJapan. Ukufundwa kwe-GDP yonyaka waseJamani ngoDisemba kulindeleke ukuba kungatshintshi, ukusuka kufundo lwamva nje lwe-1.9%, ngelixa imveliso ye-Eurozone yemveliso ye-YoY yokukhula ngoNovemba kufuneka isondele kwi-3.7% ebhalwe ngaphambili. I-BoE yase-UK iya kuzisa iimeko zayo zamatyala zamva nje kunye novavanyo lwamatyala, abahlalutyi beemarike kunye nabatyali zimali baya kudibanisa kupapasho kwaye bamamele umxholo ngokungxama, ukukhokela phambili imikhombandlela malunga nokuba ibhanki esembindini iyijonga njani impembelelo ye-Brexit kuqoqosho lwase-UK manyathelo mani anokwenziwa yibhanki ukunciphisa nawuphi na umonakalo.
Ukusuka e-USA sizakufumana amanani akutshanje, ahlukeneyo e-PPI, abonisa ukuba i-USA iyakha nawaphi na amaxabiso okonyuka kwamaxabiso okanye umfutho ngexabiso elonyukayo lokungenisa ngaphakathi elizweni, ngokwenyusa amaxabiso emveliso. Idatha yokuqala engenamsebenzi kwaye eqhubekayo engenamsebenzi yamabango iyakukhutshwa, kwaye ngorhatya igosa leFed uDudley lenza intetho ngombono woqoqosho jikelele weUSA.
Ngolwesihlanu kusasa, ngexesha leseshoni yaseAsia, amanani amva nje e-China: ukungenisa ngaphakathi, ukuthunyelwa kwelinye ilizwe kunye nebhalansi yorhwebo ngoDisemba nayo iyapapashwa. Idatha isihlenga kuqoqosho lwase-USA lupapashwa emva kwemini, kubandakanya namanani akutshanje e-CPI, inyanga nenyanga nonyaka. Okwangoku ibaleka nge-2.2% kunye ne-1.7% (ngaphandle kokutya namandla), la manani aza kujongwa ngeliso elibukhali ukuqinisekisa ukuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunyuka kwixesha elifutshane, kuya kukhuthaza i-FOMC / Fed ukunyusa amaxabiso ngaphambili kunokuba bekulindelwe ngo-2018. ukuhla ukuya kwi-0.3% ngoDisemba, ukusuka kwi-0.8% ngoNovemba. Idatha yoluhlu lweshishini iya kupapashwa kwaye iveki yokuthengisa iyavalwa nge-Baker Hughes rig count, iphantsi koqwalaselo, ngenxa yokunyuka kwamaxabiso eoyile yeWTI kwezi veki zidlulileyo.
« Ngaba ukukhutshwa kwe-NFP yokuqala ye-2018 kuya kuqhubeka nemeko yakutshanje yeendaba zoqoqosho olusisiseko e-USA? Isalathiso sikaDow Jones sophula i-25,000, i-UK FTSE 100 ikwavala irekhodi eliphezulu, igolide ifikelela kwiinyanga ezine ukuphakama, amava e-euro exubeneyo xa kuthelekiswa noontanga abakhulu. »
