I-GBP ayilinganisi ngokuchasene ne-Euro
NgoLwesithathu, ukurhweba ngemilinganiselo ephambili yomnqamlezo, kubandakanywa ne-EUR/GBP, ibinoopopayi encinci kakhulu kunemeko yeentsuku ezidlulileyo. Ekuqaleni, i-sterling ibibanjwe kufutshane nomgangatho wamva nje ngokuchasene nemali enye, kodwa akukho nzuzo yongezelelweyo. Idatha yase-UK yaxutywa. Iimali-mboleko ze-BBA zokuthengwa kwezindlu bezibuthathaka kunoko bekulindelwe. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-CBI ibike ukuba intengiso yayingaphezulu kwemvumelwano yemarike. Nangona kunjalo, zombini uchungechunge lwedatha aluphumelelanga ukukhuthaza urhwebo.
I-GBP yabona ukusebenza okuxubileyo ngokuchasene noontanga bayo abakhulu naphezu kokukhululwa kwe-CBI enamandla kunokuba ilindelwe (isalathisi sokuthengiswa kweentengiso). I-GBP yayinempendulo ethe cwaka kakhulu emva kokukhululwa, iphakamisa ukuba abathathi-nxaxheba bezentengiso bajonge oko kulindeleke ukuba kube lutshintsho lwexesha elinye olwenzeka kwimibhiyozo yamva nje yeJubilee. Inkcitho yokuthengisa kulindeleke ukuba ihlale ithulisiwe kwixesha eliphakathi njengoko iinkxalabo ze-Eurozone ziqhubeka nokuba nzima kumakhaya ase-UK.
Ngokufanelekileyo, i-BoE ilindeleke ukuba ivakalise ukwanda kokuthengwa kwe-asethi ngoLwesine ozayo, kwaye iimarike zibonakala zinexabiso kulolu phuhliso lunikwe ukwehla kwe-0.6% kwi-GBP ukususela ekukhutshweni kwemizuzu ye-MPC yakutshanje (dovish) ngoJuni 20th.
Kwakhona kwicala le-euro lebali, abarhwebi babethandabuza ukubeka ukubheja okukhulu ngaphambi kwengqungquthela ye-EU. Ngethuba lokurhweba emva kwemini, i-sterling yalahlekelwa ngumhlaba othile njengoko i-EUR / USD yehla ngaphantsi kwe-1.25 uphawu. Kurhwebo lobugcisa, i-EUR / GBP iphinde yafumana uphawu lwe-0.80. I-EUR / GBP ivale iseshoni kwi-0.8009 xa kuthelekiswa ne-0.7986 ngoLwesibili kusihlwa.
Ngobusuku, i-EUR / GBP yazama ukwandisa inzuzo yezolo ngaphaya kwe-0.80. Amaxabiso eNdlu yeSizwe amangaliswa kwicala elisezantsi (-0.6% M/M; -1.5% Y/Y). Kwakungekho kusabela kwangoko emva kwedatha, kodwa i-EUR / GBP ijoyine i-euro ebanzi yokuphinda ibuyele kamva kwintengiso yaseAsia ngale ntsasa. Nangona kunjalo, ngeli nqanaba alibonakali ukuba i-EUR / GBP yakha kwisantya esinamandla.
Kamva namhlanje; i-UK Q1 GDP yokugqibela ziindaba ezindala. Ke, ukuma kwe-euro yehlabathi ukuya kwingqungquthela ye-EU kuya kuba ligama lomdlalo kweli zinga lomnqamlezo. Ngaba i-euro (kwaye ngaloo ndlela i-EUR / GBP) iya kunandipha uhlobo oluthile lokuphefumula (okwethutyana?) I-Sterling ibambe ngamandla ngokuchasene ne-euro, kodwa kwimbono yexesha elifutshane, kubonakala ngathi i-downside kule nqanaba lomnqamlezo iphelile, nayo.
Ukusuka kumbono wezobugcisa, i-EUR / GBP ye-cross rate idibanisa emva kwexesha elide lokuthengisa eliqale ngoFebruwari.
Ekuqaleni kukaMeyi, inkxaso ye-0.8068 engundoqo yacinywa. Eli khefu livule indlela yokubuyisela isenzo kwindawo ye-0.77 (i-Okthobha i-2008 lows). Phakathi ngoMeyi, isibini sibeka ukulungiswa okuphantsi kwi-0.7950. Ukusuka apho, i-rebound / i-short squeeze yakhatywayo. Urhwebo oluqhubekayo ngaphezu kwendawo ye-0.8100 luya kukhupha isilumkiso se-downside kunye nokuphucula umfanekiso wexesha elifutshane. Esi sibini sizame izihlandlo ezininzi ukubuyisela le ndawo, kodwa akuzange kubekho nzuzo ilandelayo. Kutsha nje, sijonge ukuthengisa ukomelela ukuze sibuyise isenzo esisezantsi kuluhlu. Umzantsi woluhlu ngoku uza kumgama omangalisayo. Ke, sijika singathathi hlangothi ngakumbi kwii-EUR/GBP ezimfutshane zexesha elifutshane.
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