I-BoE ayinangxaki ekukhuliseni ireyithi yase-UK ngoLwesine, ngaba iya kubonisa ukuqiniswa komgaqo-nkqubo wezemali, okanye iya kuba yinto enye yokupholisa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso?
NgoLwesine we-2 kweyeNkanga i-Bhanki yaseNgilani yase-England, ngekomiti yayo yomgaqo-lawulo wemali, iyakubhengeza isigqibo sayo malunga nenqanaba lenzala. Okwangoku ikwi-0.25%, imvumelwano ngokubanzi, evela kwezoqoqosho ezivotelweyo ziiarhente zeendaba eziphambili eBloomberg naseReuters, kukunyuka ukuya kwi-0.5%. Ngaphandle kokuphakama okunokubakho kokonyuka kokuqala kwiminyaka elishumi, ireyithi ye-0.5% iya kubuyisela nje inqanaba lesiseko kwinqanaba ngaphambi kokuba kuthathwe amanyathelo kaxakeka, emva kwereferendamu yokuvota kunye nesiphumo, ngoJuni 2016.
Kufuneka kuqatshelwe ukuba nakuphi na ukunyuka akuyi kungeniswa ngenxa yokuba uqoqosho lwase-UK lubonwa lomelele ngokwaneleyo kwimozulu yenkqubo yokunyuka kwamazinga, ekugqibeleni ukumisa amaqondo ukuya kwi-3% okanye ngaphezulu, i-BoE ixhalabile kukunyuka kwamaxabiso (CPI) I-3% ngo-Okthobha kwaye kufuneka ithathe amanyathelo akhawulezileyo okupholisa uxinzelelo lwamaxabiso. Iponti iye yawa xa ithelekiswa namaqabane ayo amabini aphambili kurhwebo 'ukusuka ngoJuni 2016; Xa kuthelekiswa ne-euro ipondo liwile nge-14%, xa kuthelekiswa nedola yaseMelika ukuwa kuye kwayi-approx. 9%. Oku kube nefuthe kwixabiso lokungenisa elizweni kunye nakuqoqosho oluqhutywa ngumthengi, luxhomekeke kakhulu ekungenisweni kwamandla kwexabiso ngexabiso ngeedola, igalelo lamaxabiso emveliso likhuphuke kakhulu e-UK inyusa amaxabiso. Ngelixa umvuzo usilele ukugcina isantya; malunga. I-2.1% yeYOY (ngaphandle kweebhonasi) ukunyuswa kwemivuzo kunjalo. 1% ngaphantsi kwexabiso lentengo.
Ukuba i-MPC ye-BoE ibhengeza ukunyusa, emva koko ingqalelo yabatyali mali iya kujika kwangoko kwingxelo kwaye ikopi ihanjiswe yikomiti yomgaqo-nkqubo; Ngokukodwa ukuba isigqibo besingavumelani, okanye uninzi. I-BoE iya kubamba inkomfa noonondaba ngokukhawuleza emva kokubhengezwa kwenqanaba, apho baya kuthi bavelise ingxelo yabo yokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Ngeli xesha lale nkqubo xa abarhwebi be-FX, abahlalutyi kunye nabatyali mali, beza kufumanisa ukuba i-BoE / MPC iyakubona ukunyuka okunokubakho njengenyathelo elinye lokuya phambili kwikheluji yokunyuka kwamaxabiso, okanye ukuqala kwenkqubo yokuqinisa umgaqo-nkqubo wezemali weebhanki eziphambili. . I-BoE ikwabonakalise inkxalabo malunga namatyala abathengi angakhuselekanga; inyuke nge-9.9% yoY kwaye ukunyuka kwamazinga kuya kuthintela ibango.
UMark Carney, iRhuluneli ye-BoE, ikhuphe isikhokelo esiya phambili nge-10 ka-Okthobha, icacisa ukunyuka okunokubakho, i-sterling sele inyukile xa ithelekiswa noontanga bayo abakhulu; I-GBP / i-USD inyukile ukusuka kwi-approx 1.3040 ukuya kulwaphulo-1.330. I-EUR / GPB iwile ngazo zombini i-200 kunye ne-100 DMA, ukusuka kwisiphatho se-90.00 ukuya kwi-0.9750. Ke ngoko intsingiselo yokuba ukunyuka bekusondele, sele ihambisile isiphumo esifunwayo sikaCarney; ukunyuka kwexabiso leponti yase-UK xa kuthelekiswa noontanga bayo abakhulu. Nangona kunjalo, usekela-rhuluneli kwiBhanki yaseNgilani, uSir Jon Cunliffe, kutsha nje ucebise ukuba kusekutsha kakhulu ukuba ungaqala ukunyusa inzala. Njengomphumo wezimvo zaba babini bakhokelayo kwimigaqo-nkqubo, ukunyuka kwe-GBP xa kuthelekiswa noontanga bayo kunokuba sele "kunexabiso" kwaye ukuba izinga lenzala liphakanyisiwe, izibini ze-GPB zisenokunganyuki ngaphezulu. Nangona kunjalo, abathengisi kufuneka bakhumbule ukubakho kweepiki ezibalulekileyo, ngakumbi ukuba ingxelo yokunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nengxelo ehamba nazo zii-hawkish.
IIMETRIKI ZEZOQOQOSHO EZIBALULEKILEYO EZIBALULEKILEYO KUMCIMBI WEKHALENDA EPHAKAMILEYO
Umyinge wenzala wangoku u-0.25%.
• Ixabiso lentengo (CPI) 3%.
• Ukukhula kwe-GDP rhoqo ngonyaka yi-1.5%.
• Ukukhula kwe-GBP Q3 0.4%.
• Inqanaba lokungaphangeli 4.3%.
• Ukukhula komvuzo 2.2%.
• Ityala labucala v GDP 231%.
• Iinkonzo PMI 53.6.
• Intengiso kwintengiso YoY 1.2%.
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