Amagqabantshintshi ngeNtengiso ye Forex - iBaltic Dry Index

Isalathiso esomileyo seBaltic kunye namanani eTshayina

Februwari 10 • Amagqabantshintshi eMarike • 11105 izimvo • 1 Comment kwi-Baltic Dry Index kunye ne-Chinese Import Figures

Isalathiso seBaltic Dry Index kunye namaTshayina aNgenisa amanani aBalisa iBali uninzi lwezoQoqosho olungafuni ukuliva.

Ukuba bekukho isalathiso esaziwayo nesikhankanyiweyo esithe sawela ngaphezulu kwe-60% ngonyaka ngonyaka hayi nje ukuba uluntu lotyalo-mali luya kuxhalaba kakhulu, amajelo osasazo aqhelekileyo aya kuba nempembelelo kwindlela asabela ngayo. Izihloko beziya kubonisa imeko 'yesiphelo semihla'. Isikhalo, sokuba intlekele engenakuthintelwa yeziganeko sele izakwenzeka, iya kuba sisithulu…

Akukho zizalathisi zinkulu, ezidumileyo ezichazwe kakhulu eziye zehla ngezixa ezinje unyaka nonyaka Kwinkumbulo ephilayo, mhlawumbi ngo-2008-2009 ingozi okanye ulungiso lwakutsha nje kwikota yokugqibela ka-2011. /lulungiso lotshintshiselwano lwase-Athens, oluye lwawa malunga ne-50% ngonyaka kwaye oku ngaphandle kokunyuka kwe-30% ukususela kwi-low yakutshanje ye-10 kaJan. Kodwa i-ASE, nangona kugxilwe kakhulu eAthene, akunakufane kuthathwe njenge "index main".

Kuthekani ukuba i-barometer eyaziwayo ngokubanzi yempilo yezoqoqosho ekucingelwa ukuba iwile malunga nama-60% ngonyaka ngonyaka, njenge-SPX okanye i-FTSE 100? Ukuhambisa ecaleni nayiphi na inkolelo kunye nethiyori yokuba iimarike eziphambili aziseyiyo isalathiso esithe ngqo sempilo yezoqoqosho ebesikhe sayiyo, ngenxa yemigaqo-nkqubo ye-zirp, ukukhutshwa kwebheyile, ukuhlangula, itarp kunye neenkqubo zokunciphisa ubungakanani obudala i-boom yobuxoki yehlabathi enganxulumananga nenyani yezoqoqosho, ukuba izalathisi ezingundoqo ziye zafumana ukuwa okunje ukusabela kungamangalisa.

Kukho isalathiso esinye apho oosoqoqosho abaninzi, abahlalutyi beemarike kunye nabahlalutyi beemarike babeka iliso lemozulu kwaye ngokungathandabuzekiyo, ngenxa yokuba iimarike eziphambili ziye zatshintshwa ngokumpompa iipakethe zokuhlangula, zibonisa umboniso oyinyaniso weemeko zangoku zemarike yehlabathi njengoko isekelwe. kwiintsika zoqoqosho lwehlabathi ngokubanzi olufana nokubonelela kunye nemfuno, ukungenisa nokuthumela ngaphandle, kwaziwa ngokuba yiBaltic Dry Index.

Kungexesha kwaye kufanelekile ukukhankanya esi salathiso sinikwe amanani akhutshwe ngale ntsasa evela e-China malunga namanani okuthunyelwa kwempahla kumazwe angaphandle kunye nokungenisa elizweni; Umsebenzi worhwebo wase-China ucuthe ngoJanuwari xa kuthelekiswa nexesha elifanayo kunyaka ongaphambili, iphakamisa inkxalabo yokuba imfuno ebuthathaka yaphesheya kweelwandle ithatha umngcipheko kuqoqosho oluqhutywa yimveliso kumazwe angaphandle.

Amanani akhutshwe ngoLwesihlanu yi-arhente ye-customs abonisa ukuthengiswa kwempahla ngaphandle kwe-15.3 yeepesenti ukuya kwi-122.6 yeebhiliyoni zeedola, ngelixa ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwe-0.5 ekhulwini ukuya kwi-149.9 yeebhiliyoni zeedola. Yeyona datha yorhwebo imbi ukusukela ngo-2009. Intshiyekela yorhwebo enovakalelo lwaseTshayina yenyuka yaya kutsho kwi-27.3 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngoJanuwari, elona nani liphezulu kwiinyanga ezintandathu. Abahlalutyi bezemali abaninzi bacebisa ukuba iziphumo zorhwebo zikaJanuwari zibonisa ukuba uqoqosho lwesibini ngobukhulu emhlabeni luyacotha, ngenxa yokungaphangeli okuphezulu kwe-US kunye nengxaki yetyala le-Eurozone.

Uhlumo lwezoqoqosho lwaseTshayina olushushu kakhulu lwehlile lwaya kutsho kwi-8.9 ekhulwini, elona zinga liphantsi kwiminyaka emibini enesiqingatha. I-International Monetary Fund iqikelele ukukhula kwe-8.2 yeepesenti e-China ngo-2012, kodwa ilumkisa ukuba inani lingancitshiswa ngesiqingatha ukuba iingxaki zemali zaseYurophu ziba mandundu.

Uqoqosho lwaseTshayina olwalukhula ngaphambili ngokungathandabuzekiyo luqoqosho 'lwehlabathi elidala' lokwenene. Isekwe kurhwebo lwemveli, ukukhula okukhulu kwasekhaya okufunyenweyo kudale ukunxanelwa kwezinto ezisuka kumazwe anjengeAustralia. Ngelixa iinkonzo zezimali ziye zanda, ngakumbi kwindawo eyayisakuba yikoloni yase-UK yase-Hong Kong, i-boom yase-China idale urhwebo lwehlabathi lokwenyani olumangalisayo olufuna ukungeniswa kwemathiriyeli ekrwada. Ukuba ezo mpahla zivela kumazwe angaphandle zehle ngaphezulu kwe-15% ngonyaka ngonyaka kufanele kube ngunobangela wokuxhalaba okukhulu, ngakumbi ukuba i-China ithathwa njengeyona nto iphambili apho uqoqosho oluninzi lulungelelene kwaye luqhubela phambili.

Nangona kunjalo, amanani orhwebo anokuthathwa njengezalathisi ezishiyekileyo, ngaphandle kwembono abasemagunyeni baseTshayina baye kude kakhulu ngale ntsasa begxininisa ukuba ixesha leeholide kunye nekhalenda yenyanga ibe nefuthe elibi kumanani. Uqoqosho, unikezelo/imfuno yokungenisa/impahla ethunyelwa ngaphandle inika umdla kwinto yokuba i-IMF kwaye ngokwenene ingumbutho 'odade' iBhanki yeHlabathi icebise ukuba ukukhula kungacuthwa ngesiqingatha, ukusuka kwi-8.3%, ukuba ingxaki ye-Eurozone iyaqhubeka okanye iyakhula. Nangona kunjalo, umba we-Eurozone unokuba yinxalenye yomba, ukuwohloka okumangalisayo kokuthengiswa kwempahla kumazwe angaphandle kunokuzisa imeko exhalabisayo kuqoqosho lwangaphakathi lwaseTshayina, imfuno emandla yemathiriyeli ekrwada ingafikelela esiphelweni ngequbuliso kwaye oku kubetha ngequbuliso kwelizwe. Iibuffers kusenokwenzeka ukuba zaxelwa kwangaphambili ukuba siyakhathalela ukujonga kwimingxuma emnyama yedatha esisiseko yezoqoqosho apho abaninzi boyika ukuya khona.

I-Baltic Dry Index
I-Baltic Dry Index (BDI) yinombolo ekhutshwa imihla ngemihla yi-London-based Exchange yaseBaltic. Ayipheleliselwanga kumazwe oLwandle lweBaltic kuphela, isalathisi silandelela amaxabiso eenqanawa ehlabathi jikelele emithwalo eyahlukeneyo eyomileyo.

Isalathiso sinika “uvavanyo lwexabiso lokuhambisa izinto eziphambili ekrwada ngolwandle. Ukuthatha iindlela ezingama-26 zokuthumela ngenqanawa ezilinganiswe ngokwexesha lokuhamba kunye nesiseko sohambo, isalathiso sibandakanya i-Handymax, iPanamax, kunye neCapesize abathwali bezambuku ezomileyo ezithwele uluhlu lweempahla ezibandakanya amalahle, intsimbi ekrwada kunye neenkozo.

 

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Ingaba isebenza kanjani
Yonke imihla yokusebenza, iphaneli yabarhwebi beenqanawa bamazwe ngamazwe bangenisa imbono yabo yeendleko zangoku zothutho kwiindlela ezahlukeneyo kwiBaltic Exchange. Iindlela zenzelwe ukuba zimele, okt zinkulu ngokwaneleyo ngomthamo wokubaluleka kwimarike iyonke.

Olu vavanyo lwesantya emva koko lulinganiswe kunye ukwenza zombini i-BDI iyonke kunye nesayizi-specific Supramax, iPanamax, kunye ne-Capesize indices. Iimeko ze-BDI kubukhulu obune obahlukeneyo beenqanawa zokuthutha isambuku ezomileyo eziselwandle:

I-BDI iqulethe uhlolo lweendlela zombini ngokusekelwe “kwi-USD ehlawulwa ngetoni nganye” (oko kukuthi phambi kokuba kutsalwe amafutha, izibuko nezinye iindleko ezixhomekeke kuhambo) kunye “ne-USD ehlawulwa ngosuku” (oko kukuthi emva kokuba iindleko ezixhomekeke kuhambo zitsalwa, ezidla ngokubizwa ngokuba “ Imivuzo elinganayo yetshatha yexesha"). I-Fuel (=”Bunkers”) lelona xabiso likhulu lixhomekeke kuhambo kwaye lihamba nexabiso le-oyile ekrwada. Kumaxesha apho iindleko ze-bunker zihla zinyuka kakhulu, apho i-BDI ke ngoko iyakuthi ihambe ngaphezu kwemivuzo efunyenwe ngabanini-nqanawa.

Isalathiso sinokufumaneka ngokubhaliselwa ngokuthe ngqo kwi-Baltic Exchange kunye nakwiinkcukacha ezinkulu zemali kunye neenkonzo zeendaba ezifana ne-Thomson Reuters kunye ne-Bloomberg LP.

Kutheni ooQoqosho kunye nabaTyalomali beMarike yeStock bayifunda
Ngokuthe ngqo, isalathiso silinganisa imfuno yomthamo wokuthumela ngokuchasene nonikezelo lwabathwali bezambuku ezomileyo. Imfuno yokuthumela ngenqanawa iyahluka ngokwenani lempahla ethengiswayo okanye ehanjiswa kwiimarike ezahlukeneyo (ubonelelo kunye nemfuno).

Unikezelo lweenqanawa ezithwala imithwalo ngokuqhelekileyo ziqinile kwaye zinelastic-kuthatha iminyaka emibini ukwakha inqanawa entsha, kwaye iinqanawa zibiza kakhulu ukuba zingaphuma kwi-circulation ngendlela iinqwelomoya ezipaka iijethi ezingafunekiyo entlango. Ke, ukonyuka komda kwimfuno kunokutyhala isalathiso phezulu ngokukhawuleza, kwaye ukuncipha kwemfuno yemida kunokubangela ukuba isalathiso siwe ngokukhawuleza. umz. “ukuba uneenqanawa ezili-100 ezikhuphisana nemithwalo engama-99, amaxabiso ayehla, kanti ukuba uneenqanawa ezingama-99 ezikhuphisana nge-100 lempahla, amaxabiso ayenyuka. Ngamanye amazwi, utshintsho lwezithuthi ezincinci kunye nemicimbi yolungiselelo inokuwohloka amaxabiso…” Isalathiso silinganisa ngokungangqalanga unikezelo lwehlabathi kunye nemfuno yorhwebo ethunyelwa ngeenqanawa zokuthwala isambuku esomileyo, ezifana nemathiriyeli yokwakha, amalahle, intsimbi ekrwada, neenkozo.

Ibali leTape
NgoMeyi 20, 2008, isalathiso safikelela kwinqanaba eliphezulu elirekhodiweyo ukususela ekuqalisweni kwalo ngowe-1985, safikelela kumanqaku ali-11,793 5. Isiqingatha sonyaka kamva, nge-2008 kaDisemba 94, isalathisi sehle nge-663%, ukuya kuma-1986 amanqaku, aphantsi kakhulu ukususela ngo-4; nangona nge-2009 February 1,316 ifumene indawo ebilahlekile, ibuyele kwi-XNUMX. ​​La maxabiso aphantsi asondele ngokuyingozi kwiindleko zokusebenza ezidityanisiweyo zeenqanawa, amafutha kunye nabasebenzi.

Kwafikelelwa nge-3 kaFebhruwari ngo-2012
Ngo-2009, isalathiso sabuyela phezulu saya kutsho kuma-4661, kodwa emva koko saya ku-1043 ngoFebruwari, 2011, emva kokuqhubeka kokuhanjiswa kweenqanawa ezintsha kunye nezikhukula e-Australia. Nangona ibuyele ku-2000 ngo-Okthobha 7, ngoFebruwari 3, 2012, isalathisi senza i-multi-decade ephantsi ye-647 kwi-glut eqhubekayo yeenqanawa ze-container kunye nokuncipha kwi-odolo yentsimbi namalahle.

Isalathiso sithetha nje sihla nge-60.01% kunyaka nonyaka kunye ne-36.36% phantsi kwiiveki ezintandathu zokuqala zika-2012. Inyaniso yokuba i-multi-decade ephantsi entsha yafikelelwa ekuqaleni kukaFebruwari kufanele ibe lelinye lamanani oqoqosho axhomisa amehlo athe atyhilwa kulo nyaka. Nangona kunjalo, ngelixa abaninzi abachazi kumajelo eendaba aqhelekileyo bahlala belungisiwe kwizalathisi eziphambili zentengiso esi sixhobo sixabiseke kakhulu siya kuhlala sijongiwe.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND

Amagqabantshintshi zivaliwe.

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