Ngaba Ukuphelelwa lithemba kungakhokelela ekuphefumleleni?
Amanani ahlaziyiweyo eveki nganye ase-USA angaphangeli apapashwa ngoLwesine. Inani labantu baseMelika abafaka amabango ezibonelelo zokungaqeshwa alizange litshintshe ukusukela kwiveki ephelileyo. Izicelo zeentlawulo ze-inshorensi yokungaphangeli zehle nge-1,000 kwiveki ephele ngomhla we-8 ku-Okthobha ukuya kwi-404,000, amanani eSebe lezaBasebenzi abonisiwe namhlanje. Iingcali zezoqoqosho ziqikelela amabango angama-405,000 ngokoqikelelo oluphakathi kuphando lweNdaba zeBloomberg. Abemi base-USA bamalunga nezigidi ezingama-308 kwaye bakhule malunga nezigidi ezingama-30 kule minyaka ilishumi idlulileyo. Phantse i-75% ingaphezulu kweminyaka eyi-18 ubudala. Kubemi abazizigidi ezingama-231 abantu abadala ekucingelwa ukuba 'ziindaba ezilungileyo' namhlanje kukuba kuphela i-1000 elincinane elifake izicelo zenzuzo yokungaphangeli ngokujonga kwinyanga ephelileyo.
Kwakusekho amabango amatsha angama-404,000 enziwe kwiveki ephelileyo kwaye nangona kunjalo amajelo aqhelekileyo akwazi ukufumana imincili ngokuhla kwe-0.247% ukuvakalisa ezi ndaba kunye nolunye uphuculo oluncinci kakhulu kwi-gap yorhwebo nge-0.4%, njengezibonakaliso zokuba uqoqosho luyaphucuka. Uqoqosho lwase-USA lulahlekelwe yimisebenzi yecandelo labucala elimalunga ne-10.5 lezigidi ukusukela ngowama-2008, izivuseleli ezohlukeneyo zidale imisebenzi ezizigidi ezi-2. Uqikelelo lovuselelo lulonke, kuthathelwe ingqalelo yonke ibheyile, ukuhlangula kunye ne-QE, icebisa malunga. I-3.27 yeetriliyoni zeedola idaliwe/ichithwe ukusukela ngo-2008 kwaye abanye abahlalutyi babeke ixabiso kuwo wonke umsebenzi owenziwe yi-stimuli malunga ne-280,000 yeedola ngomsebenzi ngamnye.
Ubulumko obufunyenweyo kukuba i-USA kufuneka ivelise imisebenzi engama-265,000 ngenyanga ukuze ime ngxi, njengoko izinga lentswela-ngqesho linokuhla ukusuka kwi-9.1% ukuya kufutshane ne-5%. Ngoko ke, ukuba i-USA ayinakukwazi ukudala eminye imisebenzi ngokufanelekileyo ngeshishini labucala (ukuhlawula intsilelo yezigidi ezilishumi ezilahlekileyo ukusukela ngo-2008) kungenzeka njani ukuba naluphi na uvuselelo luqhutyelwe phambili ngeendleko ezinje ngomsebenzi ngamnye?
Umsantsa owandayo phakathi kwabemi base-US abazizityebi nabangamahlwempu ngokungathandabuzekiyo uhlengahlengisa uqoqosho lwase-US, i-genie ngoku iphumile ebhotileni. Xa ingaqwalaselwanga, umkhwa wokwandisa ukungalingani unokugungqisa uzinzo lwentlalo. Ukusukela ngo-1980, malunga. Isi-5 ekhulwini somvuzo wesizwe wonyaka siye sahamba sisuka kwabakumgangatho ophakathi saya kumakhaya atyebileyo esizwe. Awona makhaya azizityebi angama-5,934 ngo-2010 ayonwabele i-650 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi ezongezelelweyo, malunga ne-109 yezigidi zeerandi nganye, ngaphaya kwento ebebenayo ukuba 'i-economic pie' beyahlulwe njengoko kwakunjalo ngo-1980, ngokweenkcukacha ze-Census Bureau. Ngaba impembelelo iya kuvela ngenxa yokuphelelwa lithemba? Ngokuqinisekileyo i-USA ayinakuqhubeka kwindlela yayo yangoku. Intshukumo ye-Occupy isaqala nje ukubamba ubumdaka bento elele ngokwenene ngaphantsi.
Ukudodobala okanye ukuZinzisa?
Ukuma yeyona nto ibalaseleyo koqoqosho oluphuhlileyo olunokuba nethemba kulo nyaka uzayo, uninzi lujongene nethuba elibalulekileyo lokudodobala koqoqosho, ngokokuvota kweReuters malunga nama-350 oosoqoqosho ababonise ngoLwesine. Unyaka ka-2011 ube ludano kuqoqosho lwehlabathi oluphuhlileyo, oluthe lwaqhwaleliswa kukudityaniswa kwe; ubungqongqo, iingxaki zamatyala kunye neentlekele zendalo.
Ixhaswa ngamanani orhwebo abuthathaka angoLwesine asuka e-China, akhomba kubuthathaka boqoqosho lwehlabathi, uphando lwekota yekota ka-Oktobha lucebisa ukukhula okubuthathaka kuqoqosho oluninzi lwe-G7 olunokwanda nzulu kulo nyaka uzayo nangaphaya. Uqoqosho lwehlabathi kuqikelelwa ukuba luza kukhula nge-3.8 yeepesenti ngowama-2011, kwaye nje nge-3.6 yeepesenti kulo nyaka uzayo xa kuthelekiswa noqikelelo lwe-4.1 yeepesenti kunye ne-4.3 ekhulwini kuvavanyo lwekota yokugqibela ngoJulayi.
iYurophu
Kancinci kancinci, ivuza (icwangciswe ngononophelo kwaye ijikelezwe kakhulu) ivuza, iindaba ezimbi ziyaphuma ngokumalunga nokubhala phantsi kweebhanki zaseYurophu kuya kufuneka zisokole ukuze zithobele ubume obuchazwa njengesicwangciso esikhulu. Ngokutsho kweendaba zeBloomberg iibhanki zaseJamani kufuneka zizilungiselele ilahleko efikelela kuma-60 epesenti kumatyala abo aseGrisi. Iibhanki zelizwe zibambe umnxeba wenkomfa kule veki, abathathi-nxaxheba baxoxa ngelahleko enokubakho kwiibhondi zaseGrike phakathi kwama-50 ekhulwini kunye nama-60 ekhulwini.
Ngevoti “ewe” ngoku engxoweni evela eSlovakia uVan Rompuy kunye noBarroso babhengeze ukuba i-EFSF yezigidigidi ezingama-440 zeerandi isebenza ngokupheleleyo, ngawaphi amanyathelo ekuya kufuneka bawathathe ukuze basebenzise loo ngxowa-mali kuqikelelo lwe-2-3 yezigidi zezigidi zezigidi zeerandi. Ummandla we-Euro mhlawumbi uya kuba ngumdla ukubona ukusonjululwa. I-440 yeebhiliyoni zee-euro inokwanela ukugubungela ukungagqibeki kweGrisi ngokukodwa.
Fitch Ukufumana iFidgety
Uqikelelo lweFitch luthathele ingqalelo iibhanki ezithile zetyala ngorhatya lwangoLwesine, lubeka abantu abaninzi kwiwotshi yokufa ngelixa begweba abanye abambalwa kwiiofisi zabo zokufafaza i-dead-pool. I-Fitch Ratings yehlisa i-UBS ngoLwesine kwaye yabeka ezinye iibhanki ezisixhenxe zase-US kunye neYurophu kwi-credit watch engalunganga, ikhankanya imingeni kuqoqosho kunye neemarike zemali, kunye nefuthe lemimiselo emitsha. I-arhente yokulinganisa yehlise ireyithingi emiselweyo ye-UBS yomniki wexesha elide ukuya ku-A ukusuka ku-A+.
I-Fitch ikwaphonononga iireyithingi zeBarclays Bank Plc, BNP Paribas, Credit Suisse Group AG, Deutsche Bank AG, Societe Generale, Bank of America Corp, Morgan Stanley kunye neGoldman Sachs Group ukuze kuthotywe ngakumbi umgangatho. Ukusikwa kwiimeko ezininzi kuya kuba yinotshi enye, kwezinye iinotshi ezimbini. Kwangoko ngolwesine, iFitch iphinde yehlisa iireyithingi zayo kwiRoyal Bank yaseScotland kunye neLloyds Banking Group PLC.
Markets
Izabelo ziye zehla, kwamisa eyona rally iStandard & Poor's 500 Index enkulu kwisithuba seentsuku ezisixhenxe ukusukela ngo-2009, kulandela ukwehla kwengeniso yeJPMorgan Chase & Co. phakathi kwenkxalabo yokuba izabelo zamashishini ezingenanzala emisiweyo ziye zanda kakhulu kwithemba malunga nengxaki yamatyala eYurophu. Iimveliso ziye zatyibilika kwaye ooNondyebo badibana. I-S&P 500 ityibilike ipesenti ye-0.3 ngo-4 pm ixesha laseNew York, ilinganisa ukurhoxa kwayo ukusuka kwi-1.4 yeepesenti. I-JPMorgan inike ingxelo ye-33 yepesenti yenzuzo engaphantsi, ngaphandle kwe-1.9 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi ze-accounting, njengoko ingeniso yotyalo-mali yebhanki kunye norhwebo yehla. Iimarike zaseYurophu ziye zehla kanobom ngenxa yeenkxalabo malunga nokungabi namali ebhankini kunye ne-solvency. I-STOXX ivale i-1.67%, i-FTSE phantsi kwe-0.71%, i-CAC 1.33% kunye ne-DAX ivalwe i-1.33%. i bourse Italian, i MIB ivalwe phantsi 3.71%, imiba Unicredit kunye nevoti enokubakho yokungabi nantembelo kurhulumente Berlusconi ubunzima kakhulu kwisalathiso esele ithotywe circa 24.8% ngonyaka ngonyaka.
Ukukhutshwa kwezoqoqosho okunokuchaphazela ukuvakalelwa kwiseshoni yasekuseni yaseLondon kunye neYurophu kubandakanya oku kulandelayo;
10:00 Eurozone - CPI Septemba
10:00 Eurozone - Trade Ibhalansi Agasti
Uphando lweBloomberg lwabahlalutyi lubonisa ukubikezelwa okuphakathi kwe-3.0% ngonyaka kwi-index yexabiso lomthengi engatshintshiyo kwinani langaphambili. Inani 'elingundoqo' eliqikelelweyo libe yi-1.5% ukusuka kwi-1.2% ebelinani elikhutshwe ngaphambi koku. Ngenyanga enyangeni bekulindelwe yi-0.8% ukusuka kwi-0.2% ngaphambili.
« I-Senate yase-US ifuna uPhando ngoYin Yang kwaye iyeke ukudlala iPing Pong Ukuba umthi uwela ehlathini kwaye akukho mntu ujonge kuwo, ngaba uyawenza isandi? »
