NgoNovemba 16 • Amagqabantshintshi eMarike • 5567 izimvo • Comments Off Ngaphezulu nje kweZero Ngaba yiNorm entsha
I-vogue yangoku kwiisangqa zomhlalutyi weemarike, xa uphawula ngedatha eveliswa ngamaqumrhu ahlukeneyo karhulumente okanye abavakalisi abahloniphekileyo, kukuhlalutya intshukumo nganye encinci kwaye ivelise i-reams yengxoxo kwintlukwano encinci nganye. Nangona ngaphambili intshukumo emalunga ne-0.5% ibinokuthatyathwa 'njengengxolo' engabalulekanga xa inokuba yimpazamo yeenkcukacha-manani okanye impazamo, ngoku isalatha “kubomi okanye ukufa koqoqosho”. Phambi kokuwohloka kwezimali kowama-2008-2009 abahlalutyi neengcali zezoqoqosho bebeya kukhangela amanani e-1% ngenyanga njengobungqina bokukhula kuninzi lokukhutshwa kwekhalenda yezoqoqosho. Ngoku ukukhula kwe-0.1% 'kuhlalutywa kakhulu' kwaye kucinezele lonke ixabiso layo kumajelo aqhelekileyo njengobungqina bokuphucula.
Uninzi lwabahlalutyi, i-economists kunye nabahlalutyi banetyala lokungaphili ihlabathi lokwenyani bebenedatha echaphazelekayo, bayasilela ukubona 'iinkuni zemithi'. Ezi ntshukumo zincinci zilula nokuba bubungqina bokumisa okanye ukudodobala kwexabiso. Ngaphandle kwayo yonke inkxalabo malunga namatyala oqoqosho oluphuhlileyo uninzi lwamazwe aseYurophu naseAsia/Pacific kunye nase-USA njengeziko elinye ziyangqubana. Ukuguqulwa okuthe gqolo kwintsingiselo kubonakala kuyipatheni ephinda-phindayo, elo nani lithetha ukuba lisondele ku-zero kwaye ugxininiso lusoloko lubekwe kumanqaku edesimali ophuculo. Ngelixa icandelo leendaba linganyamalala ukuba amajelo eendaba ngobuninzi bathi; “izibalo namhlanje, zikhangeleka ngathi sisiqhelo nje ngaphezu kokukhula kuka-0, ho hum” ukujonga okwenyani kungenza ulwamkelo nokuhlaziya umka.
Ke masijonge amanani amakhulu, sifihle phantsi kwetafile, undixelele xa kukhuselekile ukuphuma amanani amakhulu..
Ukujonga i-USA yodwa ibinzana elisoloko lisetyenziswa kukuba kwishumi ngalinye leedola zokukhula bongeze iidola ezisibhozo zetyala. Amashumi asibhozo eepesenti okukhula ukusukela ngo-2009 'athengwe' ngokunyusa amatyala ngeemalike zebhondi, ukukhutshwa kwebheyile, ukuthomalalisa ubungakanani betyala kunye okanye ukonyuka kwamatyala. Ngokufutshane akukhange kubekho kukhula kwezinto eziphilayo, ubukhulu becala ibikukukhula kokwenziwa. Njengoko sixoxa ngeseti yedatha enye, kufanelekile ukuba sijonge nje kancinci (okanye sijonge ixesha elide ukuba uziva unesibindi) kwinto enye; yimalini, ukusukela ngo-2008-2009, i-USA inyuse amatyala ayo. I-USA inyuse amatyala ayo nge-avareji yeedola ezingama-500 zebhiliyoni ngonyaka ukusukela ngo-2003 kwaye nge-40% ukusukela ngo-2008-2009. Ukonyuka kwamva nje ngoSeptemba 8 kwakunyuka okwesithathu kwimali yetyala kwiinyanga ze-19, ukunyuka kwesihlanu ukususela ekubeni uMongameli u-Obama wathatha isikhundla, kunye nokunyuka kweshumi elinesibini kwiminyaka eyi-10. Nangona kunjalo, nali inani lokwenyani eloyikeka eliya kuthumela abo baye baphuma phantsi kwelaphu letafile emva ngaphantsi, batshise loo mali yomndilili wonyaka kwiinyanga ezimbini ezidlulileyo.
Ityala loLuntu lase-USA
Ityala likarhulumente linyuke nge-500 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi ngonyaka ngamnye ukususela kunyaka-mali (FY) ka-2003, ngokonyuka nge-1 yetriliyoni ye-2008 yezigidigidi kwi-FY1.9, i-$2009 yetriliyoni kwi-FY1.7, kunye ne-2010 yetriliyoni kwi-FY22. Ukusukela nge-2011 ka-Okthobha ka-14.94, ityala elipheleleyo laliyi-10.20 yeetriliyoni zeedola, apho i-$ 4.74 yetriliyoni yayibanjwe luluntu kwaye i-$ 2011 yetriliyoni yayiyimali ephakathi koorhulumente. Ingeniso yemveliso yasekhaya yonyaka (GDP) ukuya ekupheleni kukaJuni ka-15.003 yayiyi-29 yezigidi zezigidi zeedola (i-2011 kaJulayi, uqikelelo luka-99.6), kunye netyala likarhulumente lilonke eliseleyo kumlinganiselo we-68% ye-GDP, kunye namatyala abanjwe luluntu kwi-XNUMX% ye-GDP. .
I-GDP ngumlinganiselo wobungakanani obupheleleyo kunye nesiphumo soqoqosho. Umlinganiselo omnye womthwalo wetyala bubungakanani bawo ngokunxulumene neGDP. Kunyaka-mali ka-2007, ityala lomanyano lwase-US elalibanjwe luluntu lalimalunga ne-5 yeetriliyoni zeedola (i-36.8 yeepesenti ye-GDP) kwaye ityala lilonke laliyi-9 yezigidi zezigidi zezigidi zeedola (i-65.5 yepesenti ye-GDP). Ityala elibanjwe luluntu limele imali etyalwa abo babambe izibambiso zikarhulumente ezifana namatyala kaNondyebo kunye neebhondi.
Ngokusekwe kuhlahlo lwabiwo-mali lwase-US luka-2010, ityala lesizwe lilonke liya kuphantse liphindeke kabini ngokwemiqathango yedola phakathi kuka-2008 no-2015 kwaye lizakukhula liye phantse kwi-100% ye-GDP, xa lithelekiswa nenqanaba elimalunga ne-80% ekuqaleni kuka-2009. , i-GAO, iSebe le-Treasury, kunye ne-CBO baye bathi i-US isendleleni yemali engazinzanga. Nangona kunjalo, phambi koqikelelo, lilonke ityala lesizwe lifikelele kwi-100% ngekota yesithathu ka-2011.
Nangona kunjalo, ukubuyela umva kumanani amancinci akhuselekileyo, amanani okukhula kwe-Eurozone kwikota yokugqibela aye adanisa njengoko ayemile. Uqoqosho lwezowuni ye-euro lukhule nje nge-0.2 yeepesenti kwikota yesithathu njengoko ukukhula okuqinileyo eJamani naseFransi kuye kwathotywa ngamazwe ekupheleni kwengxaki yamatyala kwaye oosoqoqosho balindele ukudodobala koqoqosho ekuqaleni konyaka ozayo. Ukukhula ukusuka kuJulayi ukuya kuSeptemba bekufana nokufana nekota yesibini, kodwa imbonakalo yeenyanga ezintathu zokugqibela zika-2011 incinci, kunye nengxaki yetyala eliya lisiba nzulu kwiimvakalelo kunye nokuzithemba kwabathengi.
IKhomishini yaseYurophu ilindele ukuba uqoqosho lwamazwe angama-17 asebenzisa i-euro ukuba anciphise ipesenti ze-0.1 kwiinyanga ezintathu zokugqibela zonyaka ngokuchasene nekota yesithathu kunye nokunciphisa kwikota yokuqala ye-2012. – ngoku ibinokwenzeka, nangona ubude nobunzulu bayo buya kuxhomekeka kwimpendulo yepolisi kwingxaki enkulu yamatyala.
ISpain, indawo yesine ngobukhulu kuqoqosho lwe-euro, iye yema kwikota yesithathu. Njengoko ingxaki yamatyala izimisele ukunqanda ukusebenza ngakumbi kwaye abo banokuba ngabaphumeleleyo kunyulo lukawonke-wonke lwangeCawe bethembisa ngokuqinisa ngakumbi izikrufu zemali, ukudodobala koqoqosho akunakukhutshelwa ngaphandle. Ilizwe lasePortugal lasebumelwaneni, elifumana ibheyile ye-EU/IMF, sele ikwimeko yokudodobala koqoqosho kwaye ukudodobala kwayo kuye kwanda kwikota yesithathu. Uqoqosho lwayo lwehle nge-0.4 pesenti kwezi nyanga zintathu.
Ubume bemivuzo
I-equities yaseYurophu kunye neebhondi zikarhulumente wase-Italiya ziye zaqhubela phambili kwiseshoni yakusasa, i-euro ihlawule ilahleko njengoko iNkulumbuso yase-Italiya echongiweyo uMario Monti ekugqibeleni walungiselela ukwenza iKhabhinethi entsha.
I-Stoxx Europe 600 Index inyuke nge-0.6 ekhulwini ukususela ngo-9:00 ekuseni eLondon. I-Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures yatshintshwa kancinci, ilinganisa i-1.2 yepesenti yokuhla. I-euro yenze buthathaka ipesenti ye-0.1 ukuya kwi-1.3529 yeedola emva kokuwa kwangaphambili nge-0.8 ekhulwini. Isivuno seminyaka eli-10 yetyala likarhulumente wase-Italiya sehle ngamanqaku ali-14 ukuya kwi-6.93 ekhulwini. I-S&P 500 Index ifumene i-0.5 ekhulwini izolo. Iingxelo zezoqoqosho namhlanje zingabonisa ukuba imveliso yamashishini yase-US inyuke ngeepesenti ze-0.4 ngo-Oktobha, ngokuphindwe kabini kwinyanga edlulileyo.
I-Snapshot yemarike ngo-10:15 am GMT (UK) ixesha
Iimarike zase-Asia / zasePacific zehla ngokukhawuleza kwintengiso yasekuseni kusasa, i-Nikkei ivalwe i-0.92%, i-Hang Seng ivalwe phantsi kwe-2.0% kunye ne-CSI phantsi kwe-2.72%. i-ASX 200 ivale i-0.89% phantsi kwe-9.74% ngonyaka. EYurophu uninzi lwezalathi zentsholongwane ezikhokelayo zikwindawo entle. I-STOXX inyuke nge-1.05%, i-UK FTSE inyuke ngo-0.26%, i-CAC inyuke ngo-0.75% kwaye i-DAX inyuke ngo-0.70%. I-MIB ikhokelela ekuhlawuleni i-1.88% kunye ne-index ye-Athens exchange is the only laggard down 1.66%. I-Brent crude ithe tyaba ngeedola ezintandathu umphanda kwaye igolide yehla ngeedola ezintlanu iounce.
Ukukhutshwa kwedatha yezoqoqosho enokuthi ichaphazele imvakalelo kwiseshoni yasemva kwemini
I-12: I-00 yase-US-Izicelo zokuBolekwa kweMboleko 11 kuNovemba
13:30 US - CPI Okthobha
14:00 US - I-TIC ihamba ngoSeptemba
14:15 US - Imveliso yeMveliso ka-Oktobha
14:15 US – Ukusetyenziswa kwamandla kaOktobha
15:00 US - NAHB Housing Market Index ngoNovemba
Ngokungathandabuzekiyo owona mcimbi weendaba wedatha wezoqoqosho ubalaseleyo uya kuba ngamanani emveliso yase-USA. Amanani avela kwi-survey ye-Bloomberg yabahlalutyi baqikelela inani le-0.4% kule nyanga xa kuthelekiswa nenani langaphambili le-0.2%.
ukukhula kwezoqoqoshoIngxaki yetyala le-euro
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Ngasentla kweZero Ngaba yiNorm entsha
NgoNovemba 16 • Amagqabantshintshi eMarike • 5567 izimvo • Comments Off Ngaphezulu nje kweZero Ngaba yiNorm entsha
I-vogue yangoku kwiisangqa zomhlalutyi weemarike, xa uphawula ngedatha eveliswa ngamaqumrhu ahlukeneyo karhulumente okanye abavakalisi abahloniphekileyo, kukuhlalutya intshukumo nganye encinci kwaye ivelise i-reams yengxoxo kwintlukwano encinci nganye. Nangona ngaphambili intshukumo emalunga ne-0.5% ibinokuthatyathwa 'njengengxolo' engabalulekanga xa inokuba yimpazamo yeenkcukacha-manani okanye impazamo, ngoku isalatha “kubomi okanye ukufa koqoqosho”. Phambi kokuwohloka kwezimali kowama-2008-2009 abahlalutyi neengcali zezoqoqosho bebeya kukhangela amanani e-1% ngenyanga njengobungqina bokukhula kuninzi lokukhutshwa kwekhalenda yezoqoqosho. Ngoku ukukhula kwe-0.1% 'kuhlalutywa kakhulu' kwaye kucinezele lonke ixabiso layo kumajelo aqhelekileyo njengobungqina bokuphucula.
Uninzi lwabahlalutyi, i-economists kunye nabahlalutyi banetyala lokungaphili ihlabathi lokwenyani bebenedatha echaphazelekayo, bayasilela ukubona 'iinkuni zemithi'. Ezi ntshukumo zincinci zilula nokuba bubungqina bokumisa okanye ukudodobala kwexabiso. Ngaphandle kwayo yonke inkxalabo malunga namatyala oqoqosho oluphuhlileyo uninzi lwamazwe aseYurophu naseAsia/Pacific kunye nase-USA njengeziko elinye ziyangqubana. Ukuguqulwa okuthe gqolo kwintsingiselo kubonakala kuyipatheni ephinda-phindayo, elo nani lithetha ukuba lisondele ku-zero kwaye ugxininiso lusoloko lubekwe kumanqaku edesimali ophuculo. Ngelixa icandelo leendaba linganyamalala ukuba amajelo eendaba ngobuninzi bathi; “izibalo namhlanje, zikhangeleka ngathi sisiqhelo nje ngaphezu kokukhula kuka-0, ho hum” ukujonga okwenyani kungenza ulwamkelo nokuhlaziya umka.
Ke masijonge amanani amakhulu, sifihle phantsi kwetafile, undixelele xa kukhuselekile ukuphuma amanani amakhulu..
Ukujonga i-USA yodwa ibinzana elisoloko lisetyenziswa kukuba kwishumi ngalinye leedola zokukhula bongeze iidola ezisibhozo zetyala. Amashumi asibhozo eepesenti okukhula ukusukela ngo-2009 'athengwe' ngokunyusa amatyala ngeemalike zebhondi, ukukhutshwa kwebheyile, ukuthomalalisa ubungakanani betyala kunye okanye ukonyuka kwamatyala. Ngokufutshane akukhange kubekho kukhula kwezinto eziphilayo, ubukhulu becala ibikukukhula kokwenziwa. Njengoko sixoxa ngeseti yedatha enye, kufanelekile ukuba sijonge nje kancinci (okanye sijonge ixesha elide ukuba uziva unesibindi) kwinto enye; yimalini, ukusukela ngo-2008-2009, i-USA inyuse amatyala ayo. I-USA inyuse amatyala ayo nge-avareji yeedola ezingama-500 zebhiliyoni ngonyaka ukusukela ngo-2003 kwaye nge-40% ukusukela ngo-2008-2009. Ukonyuka kwamva nje ngoSeptemba 8 kwakunyuka okwesithathu kwimali yetyala kwiinyanga ze-19, ukunyuka kwesihlanu ukususela ekubeni uMongameli u-Obama wathatha isikhundla, kunye nokunyuka kweshumi elinesibini kwiminyaka eyi-10. Nangona kunjalo, nali inani lokwenyani eloyikeka eliya kuthumela abo baye baphuma phantsi kwelaphu letafile emva ngaphantsi, batshise loo mali yomndilili wonyaka kwiinyanga ezimbini ezidlulileyo.
Ityala loLuntu lase-USA
Ityala likarhulumente linyuke nge-500 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi ngonyaka ngamnye ukususela kunyaka-mali (FY) ka-2003, ngokonyuka nge-1 yetriliyoni ye-2008 yezigidigidi kwi-FY1.9, i-$2009 yetriliyoni kwi-FY1.7, kunye ne-2010 yetriliyoni kwi-FY22. Ukusukela nge-2011 ka-Okthobha ka-14.94, ityala elipheleleyo laliyi-10.20 yeetriliyoni zeedola, apho i-$ 4.74 yetriliyoni yayibanjwe luluntu kwaye i-$ 2011 yetriliyoni yayiyimali ephakathi koorhulumente. Ingeniso yemveliso yasekhaya yonyaka (GDP) ukuya ekupheleni kukaJuni ka-15.003 yayiyi-29 yezigidi zezigidi zeedola (i-2011 kaJulayi, uqikelelo luka-99.6), kunye netyala likarhulumente lilonke eliseleyo kumlinganiselo we-68% ye-GDP, kunye namatyala abanjwe luluntu kwi-XNUMX% ye-GDP. .
I-GDP ngumlinganiselo wobungakanani obupheleleyo kunye nesiphumo soqoqosho. Umlinganiselo omnye womthwalo wetyala bubungakanani bawo ngokunxulumene neGDP. Kunyaka-mali ka-2007, ityala lomanyano lwase-US elalibanjwe luluntu lalimalunga ne-5 yeetriliyoni zeedola (i-36.8 yeepesenti ye-GDP) kwaye ityala lilonke laliyi-9 yezigidi zezigidi zezigidi zeedola (i-65.5 yepesenti ye-GDP). Ityala elibanjwe luluntu limele imali etyalwa abo babambe izibambiso zikarhulumente ezifana namatyala kaNondyebo kunye neebhondi.
Ngokusekwe kuhlahlo lwabiwo-mali lwase-US luka-2010, ityala lesizwe lilonke liya kuphantse liphindeke kabini ngokwemiqathango yedola phakathi kuka-2008 no-2015 kwaye lizakukhula liye phantse kwi-100% ye-GDP, xa lithelekiswa nenqanaba elimalunga ne-80% ekuqaleni kuka-2009. , i-GAO, iSebe le-Treasury, kunye ne-CBO baye bathi i-US isendleleni yemali engazinzanga. Nangona kunjalo, phambi koqikelelo, lilonke ityala lesizwe lifikelele kwi-100% ngekota yesithathu ka-2011.
Nangona kunjalo, ukubuyela umva kumanani amancinci akhuselekileyo, amanani okukhula kwe-Eurozone kwikota yokugqibela aye adanisa njengoko ayemile. Uqoqosho lwezowuni ye-euro lukhule nje nge-0.2 yeepesenti kwikota yesithathu njengoko ukukhula okuqinileyo eJamani naseFransi kuye kwathotywa ngamazwe ekupheleni kwengxaki yamatyala kwaye oosoqoqosho balindele ukudodobala koqoqosho ekuqaleni konyaka ozayo. Ukukhula ukusuka kuJulayi ukuya kuSeptemba bekufana nokufana nekota yesibini, kodwa imbonakalo yeenyanga ezintathu zokugqibela zika-2011 incinci, kunye nengxaki yetyala eliya lisiba nzulu kwiimvakalelo kunye nokuzithemba kwabathengi.
IKhomishini yaseYurophu ilindele ukuba uqoqosho lwamazwe angama-17 asebenzisa i-euro ukuba anciphise ipesenti ze-0.1 kwiinyanga ezintathu zokugqibela zonyaka ngokuchasene nekota yesithathu kunye nokunciphisa kwikota yokuqala ye-2012. – ngoku ibinokwenzeka, nangona ubude nobunzulu bayo buya kuxhomekeka kwimpendulo yepolisi kwingxaki enkulu yamatyala.
ISpain, indawo yesine ngobukhulu kuqoqosho lwe-euro, iye yema kwikota yesithathu. Njengoko ingxaki yamatyala izimisele ukunqanda ukusebenza ngakumbi kwaye abo banokuba ngabaphumeleleyo kunyulo lukawonke-wonke lwangeCawe bethembisa ngokuqinisa ngakumbi izikrufu zemali, ukudodobala koqoqosho akunakukhutshelwa ngaphandle. Ilizwe lasePortugal lasebumelwaneni, elifumana ibheyile ye-EU/IMF, sele ikwimeko yokudodobala koqoqosho kwaye ukudodobala kwayo kuye kwanda kwikota yesithathu. Uqoqosho lwayo lwehle nge-0.4 pesenti kwezi nyanga zintathu.
Ubume bemivuzo
I-equities yaseYurophu kunye neebhondi zikarhulumente wase-Italiya ziye zaqhubela phambili kwiseshoni yakusasa, i-euro ihlawule ilahleko njengoko iNkulumbuso yase-Italiya echongiweyo uMario Monti ekugqibeleni walungiselela ukwenza iKhabhinethi entsha.
I-Stoxx Europe 600 Index inyuke nge-0.6 ekhulwini ukususela ngo-9:00 ekuseni eLondon. I-Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures yatshintshwa kancinci, ilinganisa i-1.2 yepesenti yokuhla. I-euro yenze buthathaka ipesenti ye-0.1 ukuya kwi-1.3529 yeedola emva kokuwa kwangaphambili nge-0.8 ekhulwini. Isivuno seminyaka eli-10 yetyala likarhulumente wase-Italiya sehle ngamanqaku ali-14 ukuya kwi-6.93 ekhulwini. I-S&P 500 Index ifumene i-0.5 ekhulwini izolo. Iingxelo zezoqoqosho namhlanje zingabonisa ukuba imveliso yamashishini yase-US inyuke ngeepesenti ze-0.4 ngo-Oktobha, ngokuphindwe kabini kwinyanga edlulileyo.
I-Snapshot yemarike ngo-10:15 am GMT (UK) ixesha
Iimarike zase-Asia / zasePacific zehla ngokukhawuleza kwintengiso yasekuseni kusasa, i-Nikkei ivalwe i-0.92%, i-Hang Seng ivalwe phantsi kwe-2.0% kunye ne-CSI phantsi kwe-2.72%. i-ASX 200 ivale i-0.89% phantsi kwe-9.74% ngonyaka. EYurophu uninzi lwezalathi zentsholongwane ezikhokelayo zikwindawo entle. I-STOXX inyuke nge-1.05%, i-UK FTSE inyuke ngo-0.26%, i-CAC inyuke ngo-0.75% kwaye i-DAX inyuke ngo-0.70%. I-MIB ikhokelela ekuhlawuleni i-1.88% kunye ne-index ye-Athens exchange is the only laggard down 1.66%. I-Brent crude ithe tyaba ngeedola ezintandathu umphanda kwaye igolide yehla ngeedola ezintlanu iounce.
Ukukhutshwa kwedatha yezoqoqosho enokuthi ichaphazele imvakalelo kwiseshoni yasemva kwemini
I-12: I-00 yase-US-Izicelo zokuBolekwa kweMboleko 11 kuNovemba
13:30 US - CPI Okthobha
14:00 US - I-TIC ihamba ngoSeptemba
14:15 US - Imveliso yeMveliso ka-Oktobha
14:15 US – Ukusetyenziswa kwamandla kaOktobha
15:00 US - NAHB Housing Market Index ngoNovemba
Ngokungathandabuzekiyo owona mcimbi weendaba wedatha wezoqoqosho ubalaseleyo uya kuba ngamanani emveliso yase-USA. Amanani avela kwi-survey ye-Bloomberg yabahlalutyi baqikelela inani le-0.4% kule nyanga xa kuthelekiswa nenani langaphambili le-0.2%.
ukukhula kwezoqoqoshoIngxaki yetyala le-euro
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