IVEKI EQHELEKILEYO YOKUTHENGA IVEKI 08/02 - 12/02 | INVESTOR OPTIMISM ISAZEKA NGOKWENZEKA KONKE, NJENGOKO IIVOLI ZEVOLI ZIQHUBEKA ZIQHUBEKA PHAMBILI, I-USD IYAQHUBEKA UKUVUKA NGOKUTSHINTSHA KWABO ABAQHELEKILEYO
Ngexesha leveki yokurhweba ephela nge-5 kaFebruwari iimarike zezabelo ziye zaba yi-bullish, izizathu zokuhlaziya umngcipheko-kwimvakalelo zahlukeneyo.
- -Ukukhutshwa kwesitofu sokugonya e-United States, e-UK nakwiindawo ezithile zaseYurophu ziqhubela phambili njengoko bekucwangcisiwe kwaye, kwezinye iimeko, phambi kokujoliswe kuko. Ithemba liyaphuhla ukuba i-western hemisphere wave yamva nje iphezulu.
- -Ngenxa yendibaniselwano yogonyo kunye namanyathelo okutshixa asele ekhona, oorhulumente kunye namasebe ezempilo kwihlabathi jikelele bajonge ngononophelo ixesha lasentlakohlaza ukujolisa kwimo yesiqhelo yokubuya.
- -UJoe Biden, uJanet Yellen, kunye noJerome Powell kufuneka benze iqela elisebenzayo. Ukuzola kukaMongameli uJoe Biden akuzise kwi-White House kuye kwakhulisa iimvakalelo zabatyali-zimali. Ithoni yakhe engaqhelekanga, yamazwe ngamazwe, wonke umntu uhambe kakuhle kuyo yonke imimandla yesijikelezi-langa.
Idityaniswe ne-stimulus yamva nje yokulungiswa kunye nosihlalo we-Federal Reserve uJerome Powell esebenza kakuhle kunye noNobhala wezeMali uJanet Yellen (owayekade ehlala kwisihlalo seFed), ikamva libukeka liqaqambile kubemi base-US kunye noqoqosho lwabo.
Kwiiveki ezintathu zilandelelana, amanani amabango angasebenziyo evekini ehlile, ngelixa amabango aqhubekayo ehla ngexabiso elilinganayo. Abatyalomali baya kujonga kwiinombolo ze-NFP zamva nje kunye nezinga lokungasebenzi elipapashwe ngoLwesihlanu 5 kwi-1: 30 PM ixesha lase-UK ubungqina bokuthi ukulahlekelwa kwemisebenzi kuye kwanyuka kwaye ingqesho ikhula.
Abo basemagunyeni abanakuwujongela phantsi umceli mngeni wokuchacha emva kwe-COVID-19
Oorhulumente, iibhanki ezingoovimba, oosoqoqosho, kunye nabatyali-mali abawujongeli phantsi umzamo ofunekayo kwi-USA, UK, kunye ne-EA yokunyuka iphume kumngxunya wezoqoqosho we-COVID-19 xa (ukuba) izitofu zokugonya kunye nokuvalwa komsebenzi, kwaye sinokuqhubeka. Ngeemetrics ezithile, ukudodobala koqoqosho kube yeyona nto inzulu kumakhulu eminyaka.
Ingxelo yakutshanje evela kwiBhanki yaseNgilani ngoLwesine ibonise ubunyani obucacileyo. Ukuqikelelwa kukuba i-Q4 2020 GDP ifike kwi--2.2% kunye ne-GDP yonyaka kwi-8.6%. Nangona kunjalo, i-BoE iqikelela inani le-GDP ye-Q1 2021 ukuba ifike kwi--4% kunye ne-Q3 echongiweyo njengekota xa ukukhula kuya kubuya.
I-USD iyaqhubeka nokunyuka kwayo kwe-2021
Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, ngo-2021, idola yaseMelika irekhode inzuzo enkulu xa ithelekiswa noontanga bayo. Isalathiso sedola i-DXY inyuke nge-1.59% unyaka ukuya kuthi ga ngoku kunye ne-2.05% ngenyanga. Kuma-91.35 ingobozi yeedola yemali isephantsi nge-10% malunga nenqanaba layo likaMeyi ka-2020. Nangona kunjalo, isalathiso siye sabeka ukubuyisela okuphakathi ngokuchasene noontanga baso.
Njengomzekelo wamandla e-USD ngexesha le-2021 kude kube ngoku, i-EUR / USD yenyanga yehla -2.87%, i-AUD / USD iphantsi -2.44%, i-USD / JPY inyuke nge-2.24%, i-USD / CHF inyuke nge-2.74%. I-GBP/USD ingaphandle kwezibini ezinkulu zemali; inyuke nge-0.60% ngenyanga.
Iveki ezayo
Ngokutsho kweReuters, imveliso yezoshishino yaseJamani kufuneka ibonise ukuwa kweDisemba -1.6% xa inani lipapashwa uMvulo ngaphambi kokuba iLondon ivule. Xa kudityaniswa nezinye iithagethi zaseJamani ezilahlekileyo kutshanje, i-metric inokubetha zombini i-DAX kunye nexabiso le-euro.
Ukuqhubela phambili umxholo wedatha waseJamani kwi uLwesibini, Ibhalansi yamva nje yamanani orhwebo ipapashwa kwi-injini yokukhula ye-EA. Uqikelelo luyi-16.2B ye-surplus ngoDisemba eJamani, ukuwa kwi-17.2B euro ngoNovemba.
Inani lakutshanje lokuvuleka kwemisebenzi (JOLTS) elipapashwe kwiseshoni yaseNew York kufuneka lixhase ithiyori yokuba i-US yenza inkqubela phambili yengqesho ezinzileyo. I-forecast yi-6.25M yokuvuleka, nantoni na engaphezulu kwe-6 M ithathwa njenge-bullish.
Isibikezelo sesokugcina i-oyile e-US ukubonisa ukuwa kwe-4.26m barrel, okuchaphazela ixabiso lombhobho.
NgoLwesithathu Iseshoni yaseTokyo ibona idatha ye-CPI yamva nje (yokunyuka kwamaxabiso) epapashwe. Rhoqo ngonyaka nangenyanga, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kufuneka kubonakalise ukunyuka. Ixabiso lokunyuka kwamaxabiso eJamani kufuneka libonise ukunyuka nge-1% ngonyaka. Umxholo wokunyuka kwamaxabiso uyaqhubeka ngexesha leeseshoni zokurhweba zangoLwesithathu kunye nedatha yakutshanje ye-US CPI. Izinga le-0.2% ngoJanuwari, ukugcina izinga lonyaka kwi-1.4% liqikelelo.
Ngexesha leseshini yaseNew York, isicwangciso sohlahlo lwabiwo-mali lwase-US kunye nesicwangciso sohlahlo lwabiwo-mali lwenyanga kaJanuwari ziyapapashwa. Ngokutsho kwabahlalutyi, inkcitho kaJanuwari kufuneka ingene kwi-$ 147B.
Ukugxila kweveki kumabango okuqala e-US okungasebenzi kwenzeka uLwesine, kwaye abahlalutyi balindele ukubona amabango okungasebenzi ewela kwi-4th iveki kuthotho, phantsi ukuya 750K.
Amehlo ehlabathi lorhwebo lwe-forex aya kuthi ntsho kumanani e-GDP yase-UK xa ekhutshwa nge-7:00 AM ngexesha lase-UK. uLwesihlanu, ngaphambi kokuba iseshoni yaseLondon ivule.
IiReuters ziqikelela -2% Q4 2020, kunye nenani lokugqibela le-2020 kwi-8%. Eyona kota ibalulekileyo yokudodobala kwekota iya kuza kulwakhiwo lwehle -8.6% kunye nokuveliswa kwehle -7.2%.
IBhanki yaseNgilani ixela kwangaphambili -4.0% kwi-Q1 2021. Ukuba oku kuqikelelwa kuyazaliseka, ngoko nge-Q2 i-UK iya kubuyela kwi-recession esemthethweni, igqitywe njengeekota ezimbini ezilandelelanayo zokunciphisa. I-euro ingaba phantsi koxinzelelo kwaye yandise ukuqikelelwa kwimali ye-bloc enye xa idatha yamva nje yokuvelisa imveliso ipapashwa ngo-10: 00 AM kwi-Euro Area. Imveliso yonyaka kufuneka ibonise ukuwa kwe--3.2% kunye ne-2.2% ngoDisemba.
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