Igolide phezulu eDraghi-Phantsi kwi-GDP yase-US namhlanje
Kwinto eya kuba nguLwesihlanu ozolileyo ekupheleni kwenyanga, kunye nedatha yokuphela kwenyanga kwiveki ezayo yatshintshwa ngamazwi alula avela kuMongameli we-ECB uDraghi, esithi i-ECB ayiyi kuhlala ingenzi lutho kwaye ivumele umanyano lwemali ukuba luwa. Ngale nto, iimarike zahamba umngcipheko we-ballistic waphuma ngefestile kwaye idatha ye-eco kunye nomvuzo awuhoywa. Ababukeli babefana namahashe esangweni, belindele nje umqondiso wokuqalisa.
Iintsimbi ezisisiseko zirhweba nge-0.3 ukuya kwi-1.1 yeepesenti kwiqonga le-elektroniki le-LME elixhaswa yizabelo eziqinileyo zaseAsia. Emva kokubuyela emva kweentsuku ze-4 ezilandelelanayo, i-equities nayo ibuyele kwindawo efanelekileyo ngenxa yokwanda kwethemba emva kokuba i-ECB ibonise isigqibo sayo sokukhusela i-Euro-zone. Ukukhutshwa kwasekuseni kwase-Asia kurhwebo lokuthengisa oluvela eJapan kuqhubekile ukwenza isivumelwano ngelixa iingeniso zeshishini laseTshayina ziye zahlala kwi-tenterhook kwaye zinokuqhubeka nokuxhasa i-downside yesiseko sesinyithi.
Ngaphaya koko, ugqaliselo lweemarike lutshintshile ukusuka eYurophu ukuya e-US kwaye ukukhutshwa kwe-GDP kuya kujongwa kwiseshoni yanamhlanje. Phakathi evekini, iimarike zihleli zibuthathaka ngenxa yokuwohloka kwe-Euro-zone, ngelixa ngoku iinzuzo zibonwa ngasemva kwenkxaso evela kwi-ECB. Yiyo loo nto, ngokufanayo ne-riskier assets njengeequity base metals zinokuhlala zomelele kude kube yiseshoni yaseYurophu.
Nangona kunjalo, ulindelo lwekontraka yoqoqosho lwase-US lunokuqhubeka nokuhla ngorhatya. Ngaphaya koko, i-Euro inokusilela ukunyuka okunyukayo kwaye ubukhulu becala iya kuhla inyuka ngamandla njengoko ixesha elide lithatha ukubhukisha inzuzo ngasemva kokunyuka kwamaxabiso e-German. Ngaphezu koko, phambi kweveki ezayo i-Euro inokuhlala ibuthathaka njengoko iingxoxo zebhajethi yamaGrike zikhubeka kwaye zinokuqhubeka nokuxhasa i-downside kwiseshoni yanamhlanje. Ukusuka e-US, ukusetyenziswa kobuqu kunokukhontraktha njengoko abemi base-US besebenzisa imali encinci kunemivuzo ngelixa ukuzithemba kweMichigan kusenokwehla emva kolindelo lwe-GDP olubuthathaka kwaye banokuqhubeka nokwenza buthathaka iintsimbi ezisisiseko. Ngasemva kokukhutshwa koqoqosho oludlulileyo, i-US inokukhula ngesantya esiphantsi ngelixa nakuphi na ukutenxa okufanayo kunokuqhubeka nokuxhasa inzuzo kwisiseko sesinyithi kwaye kungoko kufuneka kugcinwe isilumkiso sosuku.
Ngasemva kwesithembiso se-ECB sokusindisa i-Euro, uluvo lwemarike ngoku lujike lwaba luhle ekulindeleke ukuba luqhubeke nokuxhasa imakethi yezemali. Kule mvelaphi, igolide iseza kuseka i-rally yayo yosuku njengoko iseshoni yokuqala ye-Globex ingabonanga inzuzo enkulu kwintsimbi, mhlawumbi ngenxa yomngcipheko wokutya okwandayo kwabatyali-mali.
I-Euro igcina i-rally njengoko isivuno sisasazeka eYurophu sihla kwaye isivuno saseSpain sehla kakuhle ngaphantsi kwe-6.5%. Uluvo oluhle ke ngoko kusenokwenzeka ukuba lugcine imali ekwabelwana ngayo kwinqaku elinamandla eliya kuxhasa igolide namhlanje.
Ngaphezu koko, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso eJapan kwangena kwindawo engalunganga, ebonisa ukuba kwi-deflation i-BOJ kufuneka ifune ukukhululeka okuya kunyanzelisa i-Yen ephantsi.
Okubaluleke ngakumbi, iseshini yanamhlanje inokuthi iqhutywe yinombolo ye-GDP yase-US kunye nenye yecandelo layo, ukusetyenziswa komntu. Ecaleni kwempendulo entle evela kwi-ECB, ukucutha okulindelekileyo kwi-GDP yase-US ukusuka kwi-1.9% ukuya kuluhlu lwe-1.4-1.7% kunokucima ukuzithemba ngokuchasene nokubulawa kokukhutshwa kwezoqoqosho e-US esele ibonise imeko yoqoqosho ewohlokayo. Oku nangona kunjalo kuya kuxhasa isinyithi esiphuzi ngelixa ukuprintwa okugqithisileyo kwe-1.4% ngokuqinisekileyo kuya kukholisa i-Fed ukuba ibonelele ngokukhululeka kwintlanganiso yayo ezayo ngoJulayi 31. Nangona inani lilindeleke ukuba lifike ngaphantsi koqikelelo lwangaphambili lwe-1.9-2.4%, amathuba okuthengiswa kweedola anyuke nto leyo enokuthi inyuse ulindelo lwe-QE-3. Njengoko sele silibonile icandelo lezindlu eziethe-ethe kunye nelona candelo licothayo elongezelelweyo lemisebenzi, silindele ukuba imeko yezoqoqosho eethe-ethe yase-US iya kuxhasa igolide.
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