UJan 28 • Amagqabantshintshi eMarike • 1756 izimvo • Comments Off kubathengisi beFX bahlala begxile kwi-sterling, njengoko ingxoxo ye-Brexit ibuyela ePalamente kule veki.
I-Sterling iye yaphantsi kojoliso olubukhali kutshanje, njengoko uqhawulo-mtshato lwase-UK kwi-European Union lusondela; icwangciswe ngo-Matshi 29th 2019. I-market ye-FX idla ngokubizwa ngokuthi "i-reactive", ngokuchasene "nokuxela kwangaphambili" kwaye loo nkcazo ibonakala igcinwe, ngexabiso elongezelelweyo le-sterling ngokubhekiselele kwiontanga zayo eziphambili, kwiiveki zakutshanje.
Ithemba kwiimarike zeFX ze-sterling liye laphucuka kwiiveki ezimbini ezidlulileyo, ngenxa yesivumelwano seBrexit ejongeka ngaphantsi. IPalamente yase-UK ngoku ibekwe kwindawo efanelekileyo yokulawula inkqubo, ngendlela yohlengahlengiso lwamaLungu ePalamente olwahlukeneyo oluviwayo kwaye lunokuthi luvotelwe, ngaloo ndlela lugqitha isigqeba sorhulumente omncinci weConservative. Ukuphuculwa kweemvakalelo zezopolitiko kwenze ukuba i-GBP / USD iphakame kwindawo ephakamileyo engazange ibonwe ukususela ekuqaleni kukaNovemba 2018. I-Handle ebalulekileyo ye-1.300 ye-GBP / USD yabuyiselwa ngoLwesithathu ngo-Januwari 23rd, kunye neebini ezinkulu eziphela malunga ne-1% ngoLwesihlanu 25th, njengoko yaphule i-1.310. I-EUR / GBP ibuyele kwi-2019 ephezulu ye-92 cent nge-pound yase-UK, ukuya kwi-86 yeesenti.
Nangona kunjalo, ngaphandle kokusebenza kwamva nje kwe-sterling ngokuchasene noontanga bayo abakhulu, abarhwebi abaye bagcina ukholo lwabo kwi-sterling kunye nenkolelo yokuba indibaniselwano yorhulumente wase-UK kunye nePalamente iya kufumana isisombululo se-Brexit (leyo yeyona nto inobungozi kuqoqosho lwe-UK. ), kufuneka bahlale bephaphile kakhulu, kwiveki ezayo. Naziphi na iindaba ezimbi okanye ezintle zeBrexit, zinokuchaphazela ngokukhawuleza ixabiso le-sterling, njengoko i-countdown iqhubeka. Ke ngoko, kwiiveki ezisondela kumhla we-29 kaMatshi osemthethweni weBrexit, siya kungqina ukwanda koqwalaselo kunye nomsebenzi oncomekayo, ngokuyintloko njengoko iinkampani kufuneka zilungelelanise ngokukhawuleza izikhundla zazo zokubiyela, abarhwebi baya kufuna ukuba basabele kwiimeko eziguquka ngokukhawuleza ngokufanelekileyo.
NgoLwesibini we-29 kaJanuwari, izilungiso ezahlukeneyo zamaLungu ePalamente ziya kubekwa phambi kwepalamente, ukuze kuthintelwe isivumelwano seBrexit, i-sterling inokusabela njengoko iingxoxo kunye neevoti ezilandelayo zityhilwa. Abarhwebi baya kucetyiswa ukuba babeke iliso kwixesha lezona ziphumo njengoko zibhengezwa, ezinokuba ngokuhlwa kwangoko, ixesha laseYurophu.
Inkulumbuso yase-UK uMay kufuneka aqalise ukuveza esinye isicwangciso seBrexit kule veki, emva kwesithembiso sokurhoxa asifumene kwi-EU, emva kweminyaka emibini yothethathethwano, yaliwe kakhulu yiPalamente kwiiveki ezimbini ezidlulileyo, njengoko wayenyamezele ivoti erekhodiweyo. ilahleko kwiNdlu yoWiso-mthetho.
Ekuqaleni kukaJanuwari, i-GPB / i-USD yehla nge-1.240 isibambo, ngelixa i-EUR / GBP isongela ukukhupha i-0.92, njengoko ithemba lokungabikho kwe-deal crash kwi-EU libukeka lingathandekiyo. Unokuthi emva koko aphulukane nevoti yakhe ye-HoC kwaye uphumelele ugqatso; Ubulumko obudityanisiweyo beemarike baqala ukubheja ukuba imeko yokungabikho kwesivumelwano ibonakala incinci. Nangona kunjalo, i-GBP / USD 1.240 ngonyaka ephantsi, inika isibonakaliso sokuba imvakalelo inokutshintsha ngokukhawuleza kangakanani, ukuba iPalamente yase-UK iyasilela ukwenza inkqubela phambili kwiintsuku eziseleyo zePalamente ze-30, ngaphambi komhla wokuphuma ngokusemthethweni.
Ngaphandle kokuzikhukhumeza okungafanelekanga kwamaLungu ePalamente amaninzi ase-UK, abaxoxisi be-EU abakhokelayo baye baphinda bagxininisa ukuba ukuchaswa kwesivumelwano sokurhoxisa akuyi kuvulwa kwakhona. Ekuphela kwesebe lomnquma elinikezelwe e-UK livela kumthetheleli okhokelayo we-EU uMichel Barnier ngempelaveki. Ucebise ukuba i-UK iyavumelana nomanyano olusisigxina lwezintlu, emva koko into ebizwa ngokuba yi-"backstop" (isixhobo sokugcina isimo sase-Ireland saseYurophu kunye neSivumelwano esiLungileyo sangoLwesihlanu) sinokususwa.
NgoMvulo we-28 kaJanuwari lusuku oluzolileyo lweendaba zekhalenda eziphakathi ukuya kweziphezulu, nangona kunjalo, njengoko kubhekiswa kumcimbi weBrexit, ziziganeko zezopolitiko kunye neendaba ezothusayo ezihlala zishukumisa iimarike zethu zeFX. Kwaye imiba yangoku yezopolitiko echaphazela zonke iimarike zemali, ayipheleli nje e-UK
Ukuvalwa kukarhulumente e-USA, okubangele ukukhubazeka kwesigidi esinye sabasebenzi bakarhulumente, ebebejongene nenyanga yabo yesibini bengahlawulwa, kufikelele kwinqanaba elinzima ngokuhlwa kwangoLwesihlanu. Ngesinye sezikhululo zeenqwelomoya zaseNew York ezivaliweyo ngenxa yeenkxalabo zokhuseleko kunye namazinga akhe obuqu ehla ukuya kutsho kumazantsi amatsha okoko wamiselwayo, ugxininiso lukaMongameli Trump lwagxila ngakumbi; waqhwanyaza kuqala kwidabi lakhe elingaphumelelanga le-$4b yemali yokwakha udonga, phakathi kweMexico ne-USA.
Ubhengeze ukuba uza kuncedisa urhulumente ngemali ukuze aqalise kwakhona. Uphuhliso lokuvala lwenzekile ngoLwesihlanu ngokuhlwa/ngoMgqibelo kusasa. Nje ukuba iimarike ze-equity zase-USA zivulwe ngoMvulo emva kwemini, abarhwebi baya kuba kwindawo yokulinganisa ukuba uvakalelo olwandisiweyo olubonwe kwiiveki zamva nje, luya kugcinwa. Olo luvo lwamva nje, oluphuculweyo luxhaswe yi-China-ubudlelwane base-USA buye banyibilika kwezi veki zidlulileyo, emva kokuba amagosa ase-China ezibophelele okwethutyana ekuthengeni okukhulu e-USA, ukuze kuphuculwe ibhalansi yentlawulo yentsilelo yase-USA ne-China. Ngokumalunga nokuba yintoni na i-USA enokuthengisa ngexabiso eliphantsi kuqoqosho olukhula ngokukhawuleza lwehlabathi, ukuze kuncitshiswe intsilelo eyandileyo, yinto enomdla emayiqwalaselwe.
I-dollar yase-US iye yawa ngokuchasene neentanga zayo ezininzi kwiiveki zakutshanje, abenzi beemarike banokuthi bagwebe ukuba i-FOMC kunye ne-Fed inokuguqula ukugwetywa kwabo kwangaphambili; ukunyusa inzala yase-US amatyeli aliqela ngo-2019, ukugqiba oko kubhekiselwa kuko “njengenkqubo yabo yesiqhelo”; ukunyusa amazinga ukuya malunga ne-3.5% nge-Q4 2019. Ngemiba yorhwebo yaseTshayina isagxininise iingqondo zabatyali-mali kunye neemarike ze-equity zisabuyela emva kwe-2018 yazo emva kokuthengisa, abahlalutyi abaninzi bacebisa ukuba i-FOMC inokwamkela kwaye iveze umgaqo-nkqubo we-dovish ngakumbi, ngexesha labo. ishedyuli elandelayo, iintlanganiso zokumisela izinga lenzala. Idola yehle kakhulu ngo-2019 xa ithelekiswa ne-CHF kunye neCAD. I-USD iye yawa xa kuthelekiswa needola zase-Australasia zombini; I-AUD kunye ne-NZD.
IMICIMBI YEKHALENDA YOQOQOSHO NGOWE-28 JANUWARI
INGXELO yeMizuzu yeNtlanganiso yoMgaqo-nkqubo weMali we-JPY BoJ
USD Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Dec)
I-EUR ECB uMongameli weNtetho kaDraghi
Intetho ye-GBP BoE ye-Carney INTETHO
« Idola kwizinwele ezinqamlezayo zeFed, iyasokola kufutshane neveki enye ephantsi njengoko umqondiso wamaxabiso ulindelwe I-USD iphantsi kokuhlolwa, njengoko abahwebi beFX beqala ukuguqula ingqalelo yabo kwintlanganiso ye-FOMC kule veki. »
Abathengisi beFX bahlala begxininise kwi-sterling, njengoko ingxoxo ye-Brexit ibuyela ePalamente kule veki.
UJan 28 • Amagqabantshintshi eMarike • 1756 izimvo • Comments Off kubathengisi beFX bahlala begxile kwi-sterling, njengoko ingxoxo ye-Brexit ibuyela ePalamente kule veki.
I-Sterling iye yaphantsi kojoliso olubukhali kutshanje, njengoko uqhawulo-mtshato lwase-UK kwi-European Union lusondela; icwangciswe ngo-Matshi 29th 2019. I-market ye-FX idla ngokubizwa ngokuthi "i-reactive", ngokuchasene "nokuxela kwangaphambili" kwaye loo nkcazo ibonakala igcinwe, ngexabiso elongezelelweyo le-sterling ngokubhekiselele kwiontanga zayo eziphambili, kwiiveki zakutshanje.
Ithemba kwiimarike zeFX ze-sterling liye laphucuka kwiiveki ezimbini ezidlulileyo, ngenxa yesivumelwano seBrexit ejongeka ngaphantsi. IPalamente yase-UK ngoku ibekwe kwindawo efanelekileyo yokulawula inkqubo, ngendlela yohlengahlengiso lwamaLungu ePalamente olwahlukeneyo oluviwayo kwaye lunokuthi luvotelwe, ngaloo ndlela lugqitha isigqeba sorhulumente omncinci weConservative. Ukuphuculwa kweemvakalelo zezopolitiko kwenze ukuba i-GBP / USD iphakame kwindawo ephakamileyo engazange ibonwe ukususela ekuqaleni kukaNovemba 2018. I-Handle ebalulekileyo ye-1.300 ye-GBP / USD yabuyiselwa ngoLwesithathu ngo-Januwari 23rd, kunye neebini ezinkulu eziphela malunga ne-1% ngoLwesihlanu 25th, njengoko yaphule i-1.310. I-EUR / GBP ibuyele kwi-2019 ephezulu ye-92 cent nge-pound yase-UK, ukuya kwi-86 yeesenti.
Nangona kunjalo, ngaphandle kokusebenza kwamva nje kwe-sterling ngokuchasene noontanga bayo abakhulu, abarhwebi abaye bagcina ukholo lwabo kwi-sterling kunye nenkolelo yokuba indibaniselwano yorhulumente wase-UK kunye nePalamente iya kufumana isisombululo se-Brexit (leyo yeyona nto inobungozi kuqoqosho lwe-UK. ), kufuneka bahlale bephaphile kakhulu, kwiveki ezayo. Naziphi na iindaba ezimbi okanye ezintle zeBrexit, zinokuchaphazela ngokukhawuleza ixabiso le-sterling, njengoko i-countdown iqhubeka. Ke ngoko, kwiiveki ezisondela kumhla we-29 kaMatshi osemthethweni weBrexit, siya kungqina ukwanda koqwalaselo kunye nomsebenzi oncomekayo, ngokuyintloko njengoko iinkampani kufuneka zilungelelanise ngokukhawuleza izikhundla zazo zokubiyela, abarhwebi baya kufuna ukuba basabele kwiimeko eziguquka ngokukhawuleza ngokufanelekileyo.
NgoLwesibini we-29 kaJanuwari, izilungiso ezahlukeneyo zamaLungu ePalamente ziya kubekwa phambi kwepalamente, ukuze kuthintelwe isivumelwano seBrexit, i-sterling inokusabela njengoko iingxoxo kunye neevoti ezilandelayo zityhilwa. Abarhwebi baya kucetyiswa ukuba babeke iliso kwixesha lezona ziphumo njengoko zibhengezwa, ezinokuba ngokuhlwa kwangoko, ixesha laseYurophu.
Inkulumbuso yase-UK uMay kufuneka aqalise ukuveza esinye isicwangciso seBrexit kule veki, emva kwesithembiso sokurhoxa asifumene kwi-EU, emva kweminyaka emibini yothethathethwano, yaliwe kakhulu yiPalamente kwiiveki ezimbini ezidlulileyo, njengoko wayenyamezele ivoti erekhodiweyo. ilahleko kwiNdlu yoWiso-mthetho.
Ekuqaleni kukaJanuwari, i-GPB / i-USD yehla nge-1.240 isibambo, ngelixa i-EUR / GBP isongela ukukhupha i-0.92, njengoko ithemba lokungabikho kwe-deal crash kwi-EU libukeka lingathandekiyo. Unokuthi emva koko aphulukane nevoti yakhe ye-HoC kwaye uphumelele ugqatso; Ubulumko obudityanisiweyo beemarike baqala ukubheja ukuba imeko yokungabikho kwesivumelwano ibonakala incinci. Nangona kunjalo, i-GBP / USD 1.240 ngonyaka ephantsi, inika isibonakaliso sokuba imvakalelo inokutshintsha ngokukhawuleza kangakanani, ukuba iPalamente yase-UK iyasilela ukwenza inkqubela phambili kwiintsuku eziseleyo zePalamente ze-30, ngaphambi komhla wokuphuma ngokusemthethweni.
Ngaphandle kokuzikhukhumeza okungafanelekanga kwamaLungu ePalamente amaninzi ase-UK, abaxoxisi be-EU abakhokelayo baye baphinda bagxininisa ukuba ukuchaswa kwesivumelwano sokurhoxisa akuyi kuvulwa kwakhona. Ekuphela kwesebe lomnquma elinikezelwe e-UK livela kumthetheleli okhokelayo we-EU uMichel Barnier ngempelaveki. Ucebise ukuba i-UK iyavumelana nomanyano olusisigxina lwezintlu, emva koko into ebizwa ngokuba yi-"backstop" (isixhobo sokugcina isimo sase-Ireland saseYurophu kunye neSivumelwano esiLungileyo sangoLwesihlanu) sinokususwa.
NgoMvulo we-28 kaJanuwari lusuku oluzolileyo lweendaba zekhalenda eziphakathi ukuya kweziphezulu, nangona kunjalo, njengoko kubhekiswa kumcimbi weBrexit, ziziganeko zezopolitiko kunye neendaba ezothusayo ezihlala zishukumisa iimarike zethu zeFX. Kwaye imiba yangoku yezopolitiko echaphazela zonke iimarike zemali, ayipheleli nje e-UK
Ukuvalwa kukarhulumente e-USA, okubangele ukukhubazeka kwesigidi esinye sabasebenzi bakarhulumente, ebebejongene nenyanga yabo yesibini bengahlawulwa, kufikelele kwinqanaba elinzima ngokuhlwa kwangoLwesihlanu. Ngesinye sezikhululo zeenqwelomoya zaseNew York ezivaliweyo ngenxa yeenkxalabo zokhuseleko kunye namazinga akhe obuqu ehla ukuya kutsho kumazantsi amatsha okoko wamiselwayo, ugxininiso lukaMongameli Trump lwagxila ngakumbi; waqhwanyaza kuqala kwidabi lakhe elingaphumelelanga le-$4b yemali yokwakha udonga, phakathi kweMexico ne-USA.
Ubhengeze ukuba uza kuncedisa urhulumente ngemali ukuze aqalise kwakhona. Uphuhliso lokuvala lwenzekile ngoLwesihlanu ngokuhlwa/ngoMgqibelo kusasa. Nje ukuba iimarike ze-equity zase-USA zivulwe ngoMvulo emva kwemini, abarhwebi baya kuba kwindawo yokulinganisa ukuba uvakalelo olwandisiweyo olubonwe kwiiveki zamva nje, luya kugcinwa. Olo luvo lwamva nje, oluphuculweyo luxhaswe yi-China-ubudlelwane base-USA buye banyibilika kwezi veki zidlulileyo, emva kokuba amagosa ase-China ezibophelele okwethutyana ekuthengeni okukhulu e-USA, ukuze kuphuculwe ibhalansi yentlawulo yentsilelo yase-USA ne-China. Ngokumalunga nokuba yintoni na i-USA enokuthengisa ngexabiso eliphantsi kuqoqosho olukhula ngokukhawuleza lwehlabathi, ukuze kuncitshiswe intsilelo eyandileyo, yinto enomdla emayiqwalaselwe.
I-dollar yase-US iye yawa ngokuchasene neentanga zayo ezininzi kwiiveki zakutshanje, abenzi beemarike banokuthi bagwebe ukuba i-FOMC kunye ne-Fed inokuguqula ukugwetywa kwabo kwangaphambili; ukunyusa inzala yase-US amatyeli aliqela ngo-2019, ukugqiba oko kubhekiselwa kuko “njengenkqubo yabo yesiqhelo”; ukunyusa amazinga ukuya malunga ne-3.5% nge-Q4 2019. Ngemiba yorhwebo yaseTshayina isagxininise iingqondo zabatyali-mali kunye neemarike ze-equity zisabuyela emva kwe-2018 yazo emva kokuthengisa, abahlalutyi abaninzi bacebisa ukuba i-FOMC inokwamkela kwaye iveze umgaqo-nkqubo we-dovish ngakumbi, ngexesha labo. ishedyuli elandelayo, iintlanganiso zokumisela izinga lenzala. Idola yehle kakhulu ngo-2019 xa ithelekiswa ne-CHF kunye neCAD. I-USD iye yawa xa kuthelekiswa needola zase-Australasia zombini; I-AUD kunye ne-NZD.
IMICIMBI YEKHALENDA YOQOQOSHO NGOWE-28 JANUWARI
INGXELO yeMizuzu yeNtlanganiso yoMgaqo-nkqubo weMali we-JPY BoJ
USD Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Dec)
I-EUR ECB uMongameli weNtetho kaDraghi
Intetho ye-GBP BoE ye-Carney INTETHO
« Idola kwizinwele ezinqamlezayo zeFed, iyasokola kufutshane neveki enye ephantsi njengoko umqondiso wamaxabiso ulindelwe I-USD iphantsi kokuhlolwa, njengoko abahwebi beFX beqala ukuguqula ingqalelo yabo kwintlanganiso ye-FOMC kule veki. »