I-Euro whipsaws kuluhlu olubanzi emva kwemiqondiso edidayo ye-ECB, iimarike zokulingana zase-USA ziyawa njengoko ukubheja kwenzala ye-FOMC
I-euro yehlelwe lixabiso lokuthatha isenzo ngokuchasene noontanga bayo ngexesha leseshoni yasemva kwemini njengoko i-ECB ibhengeze isigqibo sayo sokumisela ireyithi kwaye ichaze umkhombandlela omtsha ngokubhekisele phambili. Endaweni yokubhengeza inzala enqunywe kwixesha elifutshane, i-ECB kunye noMongameli u-Mario Draghi bamangalisile abahlalutyi nabahlalutyi be-FX njengoko becebisa ukuba naliphi na inqanaba linokubanjwa kude kube yikota yesibini ye-2020 kwaye baya kubeka esweni okuqhelekileyo Imiba yoku: ukukhula kwe-GDP, ingqesho kunye nokuhla kwamandla emali ngaphambi kokunyuka kwenkqubo yangoku ye-TLTRO III.
Umgaqo-nkqubo wemali ohlaziyiweyo we-ECB uthathe abathathi-nxaxheba beemarike ze-FX ngokungalindelanga bedala isenzo sentengo kumaqela amaninzi abonakalise ukukhohlisa kurhwebo ngexesha leseshoni yasemva kwemini. I-EUR / USD ithengiswa kuluhlu olubanzi, lwemihla ngemihla, ihamba phakathi kwe-bearish yokuqala kunye nemvakalelo yokugqibela yokufikelela esiphelweni sentengiso yangoLwesine. Nge-20: 52 pm ixesha lase-UK isibini esikhulu sathengisa nge-1.114 ukuya kwi-0.04%. Mhlawumbi eyona ntshukumo icocekileyo kwisibini se-euro iboniswe yi-EUR / CHF; Ukurhweba ekuqaleni ngaphantsi kwepivot-point yemihla ngemihla isibini esinqamlezileyo saqhekeka senyuka njengoko umgaqo-nkqubo we-ECB wawusasazwa, wophula inqanaba lesithathu lokumelana, i-R3, ukuthengisa i-0.68%. I-DAX yaseJamani ivale -1.33%, iitrikhi ze-IFO zaseJamani ezilahlekileyo ziqikelela intengiso yemali yokulingana kwiYurophu ngokubanzi, njengoko kukhokele umkhombandlela omtsha we-ECB.
Iindaba ezimnandi zoqoqosho ngohlobo lokuthengisa kunye nokuthengisa intswela-ngqesho e-USA, yenza abatyali zimali abaninzi kunye nabarhwebi bakholelwa ekubeni i-FOMC ayinangxaki yokubhengeza ukunciphisa inzala nge-25bps ngoJulayi wama-31. Iiodolo ezintsha ze-US ezenziwe ngezinto ezomeleleyo zatsiba nge-2% ngoJuni, ukukhula okukhulu ukusukela nge-Agasti ka-2018 kunye nokubuyisa ukuwa kweepesenti -2.3% ngoMeyi, ngelixa kubetha ulindelo lweemarike lokukhula kwe-0.7% ngomgama othile. Ibango loomatshini lenyuse uninzi phantse kwiinyanga ezili-18; ii-odolo zezixhobo zothutho zonyuke kakhulu, ikakhulu inqwelomoya, iinqwelo mafutha kunye neenxalenye.
Amabango amatsha eveki neqhubekayo okungaqeshwa nawo anciphile, ngoLwesine okungcono kunedatha yezoqoqosho ebilindelwe kubangele ukuba abatyali mali baseMelika banciphise ukholo lwabo kwi-FOMC yokunciphisa umyinge kwiveki ezayo, ngenxa yoko iimarike zezabelo zamashishini e-USA zithengisiwe njengoko ityala lezorhwebo elingabizi mancinci amathuba okuba lifike . I-SPX ivaliwe -0.51% kwaye i-NASDAQ 100 ivaliwe -1.01%. Nge-21: 15 pm ixesha lase-UK isalathiso sedola, i-DXY, ithengise nge-0.07% kwi-97.80 igcina i-1.60% inyuka rhoqo ngenyanga.
Ukugxila ngolwesiHlanu kaJulayi wama-26th kuya kugxila ikakhulu kumanani akhulayo e-GDP e-USA aza kupapashwa yi-arhente yezibalo ye-BEA nge-13: 30 pm ixesha lase-UK. Zombini i-arhente zeendaba zeBloomberg kunye neReuters zilindele ukuba ukufundwa kwe-1.8% ye-Q2 minyaka le kuya kutyhilwa, kwehle ukusuka kwi-3.1% ye-Q1. Indlela iimarike zamashishini ezabelo zeUSA kunye nedola yaseMelika zisabela njani, ziya kuxhomekeka ekubeni ngaba uthelekelelo lubekelwe amaxabiso. Ukufundwa okuphantsi okunjalo (ukuba kuhlangatyeziwe) kunokukhuthaza i-FOMC ukuba inciphise inzala engaphantsi kwenqanaba langoku le-2.5%, ke, I-counter-intuitively yokufunda i-GDP ehlwempuzekileyo kunokuba yonyuselo lwezabelo kunye ne-bearish kwi-USD.
Nge-21: 30 ngokuhlwa ngoLwesine i-USD / JPY ithengise nge-0.42% kwaye i-USD / CHF ithengise nge-0.63% njengoko iimali ezikhuselekileyo zemveli ziye zanikezela kwisibheno semali yokugcina umhlaba. I-GBP / USD ithengisiwe -0.24% kwi-1.245 ngexabiso elikufutshane ne-S1. I-EUR / GBP ekuqaleni yayithengiswa kufutshane ne-S1, kodwa njengemvakalelo ye-euro yabuya umva emva kosasazo lwe-ECB, isibini esinqamlezileyo sathengisa kufutshane ne-R1 kunye ne-0.30% ngosuku.
I-Sterling ayiphumelelanga ukwenza inzuzo ebonakalayo xa kuthelekiswa nabalingane njengoko iseshoni yepalamente yase-UK iphele ngokusesikweni ngoLwesine, kodwa hayi ngaphambi kokuba inkulumbuso entsha uJohnson ahambise intetho engaqhelekanga, engaqhelekanga kwiNdlu yeeManyano esongela i-EU ngokungaphumeleli kwintengiso nangoko nangoko Ukutshabalalisa nayiphi na into enhle uTheresa May wayakhe kunye nabalingani bakhe baseYurophu.
« Ukuba uqikelelo lwe-GDP yase-USA luyafezekiswa emva koko i-FOMC inokuphendula kule veki izayo ngokubetha inzala ephambili kwi-2.00% Ukugxila kuguqukela kumanani okukhula kwe-Q2 ye-GDP yamva nje e-USA ukuze ufumane imikhombandlela malunga nomgaqo-nkqubo wezemali we-FOMC oza kuthatha. »
