ISIKHOKHISHITHI SEVEKI NGEVEKI 14/12 - 18/12 | I-EUR / GBP ifikelela kwinqanaba eliphezulu ingabonwanga ukusukela ngoSeptemba njengoko iintetho zikaBrexit ziwa ematyeni
Kukho amaxesha ukuba uthengisa i-forex, i-indices kunye nempahla xa imiba ye-macroeconomic igubungela iziganeko ezidweliswe kwikhalenda yakho yezoqoqosho. Imeko ekhoyo ngoku kufuneka isebenze njengokukhawuleza ukuba izakhono zakho zohlalutyo olusisiseko kunye nolwazi kufuneka ludlulele ngaphaya kwedatha, izigqibo kunye neziganeko ozibona kwikhalenda yemihla ngemihla.
Imiba emibini ephambili ngoku ilawula imeko yethu yorhwebo, ubhubhani wedada elimnyama kunye neBrexit. Njengoko usazi, ubume beziganeko ze-swan ezimnyama ziqinisekisa ukuba awuziboni ziza. Cinga emva ngeli xesha kunyaka ophelileyo, ibinzana elithi "Covid 19" lalingekho kwisichazi-magama samazwe ngamazwe. Ngoku, siphila ubomi bethu emthunzini wentsholongwane.
Intsholongwane ibe neyona mpembelelo ingaqhelekanga kwiimarike. Ukuwa kwemarike ye-equity ngo-Matshi kwakuqikelelwa ngokupheleleyo, i-oyile iwela kwixabiso elibi kuba akukho mntu unokuthatha ubunini kunye nokugcinwa ngokufanayo. Iindawo ezikhuselekileyo njengegolide nazo zinyukile kuzo zombini iindleko kunye nembono yabatyali-mali ngexabiso. Kodwa ukuchacha kuzo zombini iimarike ze-equity kunye neoyile kuye kwamangalisa.
Uvuselelo olukhulu lwemali kunye nolwemali urhulumente wase-USA kunye ne-Federal Reserve ebandakanyekayo ekuqinisekiseni zonke iimarike zezabelo ezingundoqo e-US ezishicilele iirekhodi eziphezulu, ngaphandle kwe-15 yezigidi ezongezelelweyo ezingaphangeliyo kunye ne-25 yezigidi zamabango abatsha. I-Tesla inyuke ngokusondeleyo kwi-700%. Ngaphandle kokuhambisa iqhezu leemoto zeToyota zixabisa ngaphezulu kwamaxesha alikhulu ngaphezulu.
I-Airbnb ixabisa malunga neebhiliyoni ezili-18 zeedola ngaphambi kobhubhane. Ngaphandle kobhubhani ucinezele imfuno yokuhamba kunye neenqwelomoya, ifemu yadada ngolwesine kaDisemba 10 kwaye ngequbuliso yayixabisa i-90b yeedola. Ixabiso layo le-IPO ngokukhawuleza liphindwe kabini ekungeneni kwimarike.
Kukho enye inzuzo yokunyuka kwe-stellar kwizinto ezithandwa nguTesla kunye ne-Airbnb; ayiseyongxaki kuyo nayiphi na inkampani. Nangona kunjalo, ukuphakama okumangalisayo kuluphawu lwendlela iimarike ezithengisa ngayo kunye nendlela uhlalutyo olungafuneki ngayo ngeendlela ezininzi ngoku, kunanini na ngaphambili kufuneka "urhwebe ngento oyibonayo".
Idola yaseMelika iye yehla xa ithelekiswa noontanga bayo abaphambili ngenxa yezivuseleli. Isalathiso sedola (DXY) siphantsi -6.59% unyaka ukuya kuthi ga ngoku, ngelixa i-EUR / USD inyuke nge-8.38% kwi-2020. Kufuneka uhlolisise iitshathi ukuze ufumane ixesha apho i-USD yayiphantsi koxinzelelo olunjalo.
Ekuqaleni kuka-2018 emva kokuba uTrump ebangele umlo ongeyomfuneko kunye ne-China kwaye wamisela iirhafu yayilixesha lokugqibela. Eso siganeko kunye "neemfazwe zerhafu" zibonisa indlela iziganeko zezoqoqosho ezinokuthi zilawule. Xa uTrump wathumela umsindo wakhe ngokuchasene neTshayina, iimarike zasabela.
Ukuba iimarike ze-equity e-US yayingumntu, masithi umntwana okwishumi elivisayo onomsindo, emva koko uyancwina xa engayifumani into ayifunayo, ukuba akukho ngxakeko yeswekile ngendlela ye-stimuli emva koko i-sulks kwaye iphosa i-tantrum. Nika uvuselelo, kwaye ngokukhawuleza uyavuya. Okubuhlungu kukuba, ngoku, uhlalutyo lwendlela yeemarike zezabelo lusisiseko. Nje ukuba iNdlu yeeNgwevu iphumeze i-900b+ yeedola zoNcedo lweBhili kwi-Pandemic Relief Bill yase-US mhlawumbi iya kuba nendibano, kanye ngexesha lokukhwela iSanta Rally.
Ngokufanayo, ukuba sijonge ukuqikelela indlela ye-USD kwiveki ezayo, ixhomekeke kwisigqibo sokuvuselela: ukuvuselela ngakumbi = ukuwa kwexabiso le-USD. Ukuba iwa kangakanani ixhomekeke kwisixa seSenethi esivunyiweyo.
I-Brexit nayo ibe yiendaba eziphambili zezoqoqosho kule veki iphelileyo. I-UK ekugqibeleni ifikelele esiphelweni sendlela. Kanye njengokuba abemi base-UK bakruqukile ngulo mbandela kwaye bavotela iiTories ukuba zibuyele emandleni ukuze "bayenze iBrexit yenziwe", kukho ukungakhathali ngokubanzi kunye nokungazi e-UK ngalo mba.
Umyinge we-Brit akanalo nofifi lokuba ukuqhawulwa kobudlelwane be-40-50 yeminyaka kunye ne-EU kuya kubangela intlungu enkulu yezoqoqosho kunye nentlalo; abaninzi bakholelwa kubuxoki “bolongamo, intlanzi, nokuzimela geqe”.
NgeCawa i-saga ye-torrid kufuneka iphelile, umhla wokugqibela (ekucetywayo) wokuba amaqela omabini avumelane ngesisombululo. Okubangel 'umdla kukuba, iindaba eziphambili ezivela kwiforum ye-EU yeBhunga leeNkokheli ze-EU ayikho i-Brexit, kodwa utshintsho lwemozulu kunye nesivumelwano sokunciphisa ukukhutshwa. Impumelelo yokukhutshwa kwezinto eziphuma kwindawo ephakathi inokuba ngumqondiso wokuba i-EU ekugqibeleni inikezele e-UK njengelizwe. Enfant eyoyikekayo kwaye ilungiselelwe ngokupheleleyo ukuba akukho sivumelwano.
Njengoko siye sabonisa amaxesha amaninzi mva nje; Iponti yase-UK ayinyukanga kabukhali xa ithelekiswa nedola yaseMelika kwezi nyanga zidlulileyo, idola iye yawa ngokuchasene nabo bonke oontanga. Iwile kancinci xa ithelekiswa ne-sterling. NgoLwesihlanu, ngoDisemba 11 kwi-11: 30 am, i-GBP / USD ithengiswa phantsi -0.85% kwi-1.3190, i-0.40% ngonyaka ukuya kuthi ga ngoku.
I-EUR / GBP yayirhweba kwi-0.9182, i-0.58% ngosuku kunye ne-8.07% ngonyaka ukuya kumhla. I-euro ibambe kakuhle xa ithelekiswa noontanga bayo ngo-2020, ngaphandle kokuba i-ECB ibandakanyeka kwimijikelo yovuselelo kunye namazinga enzala aku-zero okanye angalunganga kwabo bafaka imali kunye nabonga abaqhelekileyo.
Ukuba iCawa iya kuba ngumhla wokugqibela we-UK ukufikelela kwi-compromise kunye ne-EU, ngoko sinokulindela ukunyakaza ngokukhawuleza kwiimbini ze-GBP emva kokuba iimarike zeFX zivuliwe. Ngoko ke, abahwebi kufuneka baqwalasele izikhundla zabo ngononophelo. Iimeko ezinjalo zinokubangela ii-spikes ezibalulekileyo ezinokubeka esichengeni ukumisa kunye nemida. Kwimeko yorhwebo oluphantsi kodwa oluguquguqukayo oluphezulu, ukuzaliswa kunye nokusabalalisa kunokuba yingxaki.
Iziganeko zekhalenda eziza kujongwa kwiveki eqala nge-13 kaDisemba
On uLwesibini sifumana ubalo lwamva nje lwamabango kunye nedatha yokungaphangeli kwi-ONS yase-UK. Ngenxa yokuntsokotha kunye ne-obfuscation, ukugweba indlela achaneke ngayo la manani kufana nokuzama ukuqhobosha ijeli eludongeni. Kodwa uqikelelo lolophuculo oluphakathi kwibalo lababangayo kunye nepesenteji yentswela-ngqesho eyintloko yabemi abasebenzayo.
Ibhalansi yaseJapan yorhwebo iqikelelwa ukuba iza kuphucuka xa amanani ebhengezwa ngorhatya lwangoLwesibini; oku kunokuba nefuthe kwixabiso le-yen.
On uLwesithathu Ixabiso lokunyuka kwamaxabiso lamva nje lase-UK lipapashiwe, iCanada iyafana nedatha yamva nje yokuthengisa yase-USA. Akukho naliphi na inani lokunyuka kwamaxabiso elinokuthi lihambise ixabiso le-GBP okanye iCAD kakhulu. Iinkcukacha-manani zokuthengisa zase-USA zinokubonisa umdla womthengi wokuchitha.
Inani lokunyuka kwamaxabiso eJapan liyapapashwa ULwesine, kwaye uqikelelo lolokuncipha ukuya kwi -0.4%. Ukuqhuba uqoqosho lwe-deflationary ayingomceli mngeni omtsha kubenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo waseJapan okanye abenzi bomthetho.
NgoLwesihlanu ukukhutshwa kwedatha kuchaphazela ufundo lwamva nje lwe-GfK lokuzithemba kubathengi base-UK. Uqikelelo lokufunda luyi-33. Inani liya kuxhasa uphando lwakutsha nje lwabantu abadala abasebenza e-UK, licebisa ukuba kufutshane ne-68% ayizukuba nemali eyaneleyo yokuphila ngomvuzo kaDisemba; kuya kufuneka baboleke de intlawulo kaJanuwari ifike kwiiakhawunti zabo zebhanki. I-IHS Markit iya kupapasha ukubulawa kwee-PMIs ngeveki. Olu fundo luphantsi ukuya kweliphakathi lunempembelelo ekhohlisayo ukucacisa le paradigm yobhubhane yangoku. Ziyahluka ngokungaqhelekanga inyanga nenyanga kwaye azikwazi ukuthembela kuzo njengezalathisi eziphambili ezichanekileyo.
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