I-ECB iQalisa ukuQinisa ngoBundlongondlongo, Ukuthanda iinkunzi ze-Euro
Ukuphela kwenyanga kwindawo yemali kulindeleke. Kubandakanya impelaveki yayizolo yase-US, ukuhamba okudityanisiweyo bekuphantsi ngexesha leeyure zaseAsia naseLondon kodwa kwabona indlela yokuthenga i-euro kulandela idatha yokukhula kwamaxabiso evela eSpain naseJamani.
Iintetho kuluntu lokurhweba lujolise ikakhulu kwimiba yeveki ephelileyo, oko kukuthi ukuqiniswa komgaqo-nkqubo weBhanki Enkulu yaseYurophu kunye nokuncipha kwedola. Sineeseshoni ezinomdla phambi kwesigqibo somgaqo-mali weveki ezayo, ukukhula okuhlaziyiweyo kwe-ECB kunye nezibikezelo zokunyuka kwamaxabiso, kunye nolunye ukhokelo oluvela kwi-European Central Bank uMongameli uChristine Lagarde.
Ekupheleni kukaMeyi ukuhamba bekulindeleke ukuba kuxhase idola, kwaye sibone inkxaso ethile kwiveki ephelileyo. Omnye umrhwebi we-interbank undixelele ukuba abalindelanga ukuhamba okuninzi kulo mphambili namhlanje, ngakumbi kuba isitokhwe sase-US sanda mva nje. Oku, kundixelela ukuba i-euro inendawo yokukhula ngakumbi.
Imalunga ne-asymmetry ye-ECB. Kubathengisi bemali, amathuba okunyuka kwesiseko se-50 ngoJulayi phantse kufana nokunyuka kwamanqaku angama-25. I-Chief Economist Philip Lane ithe izolo ukuba ukulungiswa komgaqo-mali kuya kuhamba ngokuthe ngcembe kwaye "isantya esisisiseko sinyuka ngamanqaku angama-25 kwiintlanganiso zikaJulayi noSeptemba". Leyo yingxelo ecacileyo, kodwa ishiya indawo yokuphucula ngakumbi, njengakwizimvo zikaLagarde zamva nje. Kwaye ekubeni iLane ikwinkampu ephakathi yeBhunga eliLawulayo, oku kunokuthatyathwa ngokubanzi njengengxelo yehawkish.
Ingaba i-historic 50 point point move inokwenzeka ukuba ibonakale yinto abahwebi be-forex abaza kuyibona kwiimarike zokukhetha. Umahluko we-euro oguquguqukayo uhlala uxhasa idola kodwa kumanqanaba asezantsi kakhulu e-bearish kwimali enye kunaphakathi kuMeyi. Ukuba sibona i-repricing eyongezelelweyo kunye nokuhamba kokuqala kwi-premium kwi-bullish euro rates, inokuthathwa njengophawu oluqinileyo lokuba abahwebi balindele i-dovish e-ECB i-dovish view kunye nomngcipheko ophezulu wesiqingatha sepesenti yokunyuka kwepesenti ngoSeptemba.
Umahluko wenzala phakathi kwe-US kunye neJamani iyaqhubeka iyancipha, ngelixa ukulindela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso exesha eliphakathi kuye kwaphawula ixesha elifutshane elisezantsi kwi-eurozone. Uhlalutyo lwe-euro-dollar spreads kunye ne-EU-US swaps 1-2 iminyaka ukususela ngoku ibonisa ukuba ukuya kwi-$ 1.13 ingaba kwipayipi. Ngee-"buts" ezinkulu ezimbalwa: ikhula njani imeko ye-Covid e-China nokuba imfazwe yase-Ukraine iya kuba ngumqobo omkhulu kwakhona. Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, ukunyuka okungaphezulu komndilili ohambahambayo weentsuku ezingama-55 kuthetha okokuqala ukusukela ngoFebruwari kwiindaba zokuba iinkokeli ze-EU zivumile ukuvalwa kancinci kwe-oyile yaseRussia, evula indlela yomjikelo wesithandathu wezohlwayo ukohlwaya iMoscow, iyazithethela. . Sele kukho umfutho wokuthoba ngakumbi kwidola, kodwa njengoko besitshilo kwiveki ephelileyo, kulumkele ukuqhawuka kobuxoki phakathi kokuhamba kwemali ekupheleni kwenyanga kunye nokucuthwa kwemali yokuhlawula amatyala ngenxa yexesha leeholide. Ukuqala ngomso, singathetha nangexesha lonyaka.
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