Iimfazwe zemali; Zeziphi izibonelelo (ukuba zikhona) abanokubonelela ngazo ngoMrhwebi we-Forex?
UMario Draghi, umongameli we-ECB, kubonakala ngathi unexhala lokuba i-euro iphezulu kakhulu xa ithelekiswa ne-USD. I-EUR/USD isandula ukwaphula isibambo se-1.2500 okokuqala kwisithuba seminyaka emithathu, unexhala lokuba kweli nqanaba linokwenzakalisa ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kumazwe angaphandle kwaye konakalise (ebuthathaka) ukubuyiswa kwe-Eurozone ekuyo, okuku-circa ezimbini kuphela, mhlawumbi iminyaka emithathu kuzinzo. .
UMongameli uTrump wachaza ukuba i-USD yayiphezulu kakhulu ekuqaleni kwe-2017, ngoko unobhala wakhe we-treasury Mnuchin unxulumene nengxabano efanayo, ukuba imali yayiphezulu kakhulu, kwintlanganiso ye-WEF eDavos kwiveki ephelileyo. Emva koko uTrump waqala ukuphikisana kwaye uyala unobhala wakhe wezezimali ngokubhengeza eDavos ukuba ufuna ukukhusela idola.
I-BOJ ifuna i-yen ebuthathaka ukuba iqhubeke nenkqubo ye-Abenomics, inceda ukoyisa i-deflation kwaye iqhubeke nokukhula kwayo mva nje (ngaphandle kwamahemuhemu achasene noko), iJapan iseyindawo yokuvelisa amandla, kunye neempawu zasekhaya esizithandayo sonke, ezinje. njenge; I-Sony, iHonda, iSuzuki, iPanasonic njl. zisasebenza phambili.
Ngokunjalo amaTshayina adinga imali yabantu bawo irenminbi (yuan) ukuba ihlale iphantsi, ukuze baqhubeke nexesha labo lokuvuselela imveliso. Ngaphandle kwemizamo yabo emihle i-USD / CNH yehla ukusuka kwi-circa 70.00 ukuya kwi-64.00 kwi-2017, ukwenza ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe xa kulinganiswa kwinqanaba lamazwe ngamazwe, kubiza kakhulu.
Emva koko kukho urhulumente wase-UK kunye neBhanki yaseNgilani ingxaki, abangakwaziyo ukwenza ingqondo yabo (kuxhomekeke kwimo yemini) ukuba iponti ebuthathaka ilungele ukuthunyelwa kunye nokuvelisa (ipesenti encinci yomsebenzi wase-UK). Okanye kubi kuqoqosho, kwisiseko sokuba njengenkonzo ekhokelwa / eqhutywa ngabathengi kuqoqosho oluxhomekeke kakhulu ekuthengisweni ngaphandle kwexabiso eliphantsi, iponti ebuthathaka ikhethwa…
Ke leyo yingxelo emfutshane nje apho sikuyo ngokunxulumene noko kunokubizwa ngokuba “ziimfazwe zemali”. Ngethamsanqa, thina njengabarhwebi bemali, konke oku: iimvakalelo, idatha, ukuma kwezopolitiko kunye neemetriki zezoqoqosho, zifakwe kwi-'FX mincer' enkulu kwaye kwelinye isiphelo kuza ixabiso lethu kwiimbini ezinkulu zemali. Kwaye ngelixa sivuma ukuba i-yuan ayihlelwanga ngokusemthethweni njengesibini esikhulu semali, kuba ayishukunyiswa ngokukhululekileyo / iguquguqukayo, okanye imele ixabiso lokurhweba njengesibini semali xa kuthelekiswa nezinto eziphambili, impembelelo yayo kunye neempembelelo kwiimarike ze-forex kunye nemali. izibini esirhweba ngazo, azinakuhoywa.
Iimfazwe zemali, umzekelo ogqibeleleyo we-zero sum
Ingxabano esemgangathweni kukuba akukho mntu uzuza kwiimfazwe zemali, kwaye eso sigqibo sichanekile; ukuba silinganisa naziphi na iinzuzo ngokwembono yezoqoqosho. Masisebenzise i-USA v China njengomzekelo. Ukuqwalasela iimbono ezihlukeneyo kunye eziphikisanayo ezivela kulawulo lwe-republic yase-USA kunye ne-FOMC / Fed, abenzi bezigqibo e-USA abakwazi ukwenza iingqondo zabo ukuba bafuna i-dollar ephantsi, okanye ephezulu xa iphikisana ne-yuan. Inkuthazo iyonke ibonakala ngathi yi-swayipe ecaleni kunye nosongelo olujolise eTshayina; kukho ukukrokrela ukuba uTrump ufuna nje i-approx. I-$ 500b yorhwebo intsilelo kunye neChina ukuba ngandlela-thile zinyamalale, ayikwazi, kufuneka ithengiselwe phantsi.
Kodwa i-USA ingayenza njani, enentsilelo enkulu yorhwebo kunye nelizwe elinqwenela ukwenza injineli yokuvuselelwa ngokutsha kwemveliso, ngequbuliso iyibuyisele umva imeko kwaye ngandlela ithile inyanzelise iyuan phantsi? Abanako. Kwaye njengoqoqosho oluxhomekeke kakhulu ekuthengisweni kwempahla kumazwe angaphandle, ukungeniswa ngaphandle kwamaTshayina kunokuba sezantsi ngexabiso eliphantsi eMelika ngeyuan ebuthathaka, kodwa ukungeniswa kweTshayina eTshayina ukusuka e-USA kunye nexabiso le-oyile ngeedola, kuya kuba nexabiso elithe kratya, ekugqibeleni kubangele ukuba ukwenziwa kwemveliso kubize kakhulu kwaye ukuba Ukungeniswa kwe-China amaxabiso e-spikes ngenxa ye-yuan ebuthathaka, ngoko ke iziphumo ze-ripple zehlabathi zinokuba nzima kakhulu. Ingcamango yokuba amaShayina azakucwangcisa iyuan eyomeleleyo ukulimaza imveliso kwaye ekugqibeleni amandla abo okuthumela ngaphandle, ibonakala ingahambelani neminqweno yabo. Ke i-USA inokuphumelela njani imfazwe yemali kunye neTshayina? Abanakukwazi, zombini ziro sum kunye nohlobo oluqinisekisiweyo, ukutshatyalaliswa kwezoqoqosho.
Abathengisi bemali ye-Forex banokuzuza kwiimfazwe zemali
Ngamanye amaxesha, xa sithathela ingqalelo imeko yezopolitiko esele ichaziwe, ayimangalisi into yokuba sijonge iimali kunye nezibini esikhetha ukuzithengisa kwaye sizibuze ukuba singakwazi njani ukurhweba ngayo nayiphi na kuzo. Okanye sinokuba nomdla wokuba kutheni iimarike ze-forex zingekho phantsi kwe-oscillations ebanzi esingqina kuyo, umzekelo, iimarike ze-crypto ezifana ne-BTC / USD (i-bitcoin v dollar). Kodwa ngaphandle kwale miba mikhulu nenika umdla yezopolitiko nezoqoqosho; Umlo omkhulu okhoyo phakathi komzekelo abathengi kunye nabathengisi be-euro/dollar, iimarike zethu ze-forex (ngemilinganiselo ethile) zizinzile ngendlela emangalisayo. Uluhlu lwemihla ngemihla lwe-0.5% kwi-GBP/USD luya kuqwalaselwa ngokubanzi, uluhlu lwe-1% luya kuthathwa njengento engaqhelekanga, malunga ne-5 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngosuku imarike yokuthengisa izinzile ngokumangalisayo. Ngaphandle kweempembelelo ezinkulu ezikhankanywe ngasentla kunye nokungavisisani ngakumbi phakathi kwamagunya amakhulu kwezoqoqosho; I-USA, i-China, iJapan kunye ne-Eurozone, le miba inokuphucula kuphela amathuba ethu.
Sinokuhlala silungiswa kwaye siphuhlise umbono wetonela ngokubhekiselele kurhwebo lwethu lwe-forex, nangona kunjalo, kubalulekile ukuba njengabarhwebi singaphulukani nombono wento esiyithengisayo kwaye kutheni ikhona. Iimarike zethu ze-forex zikhona ukuze zigudise iindleko zentengiselwano phakathi kwamashishini angaphandle, ayizange ibekho kuthi abarhwebi ukuba bathathe inzuzo kwimarike. Ukuba sifunda okanye siva ingcamango "yeemfazwe zemali" kumajelo aqhelekileyo kwiinyanga ezizayo ngoko ngokwemvelo, njengabathengisi be-forex, ii-antenna zethu zokurhweba ziya kuxubha. Kodwa ezi mfazwe zemali zikhona kwiindidi ezininzi zamashumi eminyaka kwaye ngaphandle kwamathandabuzo ziyaphucuka: iindlela, ukungabikho kwemali kunye nomsebenzi kwishishini lethu le-forex, elinokuthi lilungele amathuba ethu.
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