Iimarike zeBond ngombala obomvu: Yintoni onokuyilindela?
Iimarike zebhondi zehlabathi ziye zehla zaya kutsho kwelona nqanaba lisezantsi ukususela ngo-1990 ubuncinane, njengoko abatyali-mali belindele ukuba iibhanki ezingoovimba zinyuse ngokukhawuleza izinga lenzala xa zijongene nexabiso eliphezulu lokunyuka kwamaxabiso kumashumi eminyaka.
Kuqhubekani?
Ilahleko yemalike yebhondi iphuma kwiibhanki ezingoovimba ezinyusa izinga lenzala ukulwa nokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Phakathi kweebhondi kunye nenzala, kukho ifomula yemathematika. Izinga lenzala liyenyuka xa iibhondi ziyancipha kwaye ngokuphambeneyo.
Emva kokunyuka kwamaxabiso enzala okokuqala ukusukela ngo-2018, uSihlalo weFederal Reserve uJay Powell usayine ngoMvulo ukuba ibhanki ephakathi yase-US izimisele ukwenza ngamandla xa ifuneka ukugcina ukunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Ukulandela i-Fed Chair Powell's hawkish amazwi oMvulo, uMongameli waseSt Louis Fed uBullard wagxininisa ukuthanda kwakhe ukuba i-FOMC yenze "ngobundlongondlongo" ukugcina ukunyuka kwamaxabiso, besithi i-FOMC ayinakulinda ukuba imiba ye-geopolitical iphathwe.
Iibhondi ziba bomvu
Isivuno se-US seminyaka emi-2, esisesichengeni soqikelelo lwenzala ephantsi, sifike kwiminyaka emithathu ephezulu ye-2.2 ekhulwini kule veki, sisuka kwi-0.73% ekuvulweni konyaka. Isivuno kuNondyebo weminyaka emibini sisendleleni yokutsiba kakhulu kwikota ukusukela ngo-1984.
Amazinga exesha elide nawo anyukile, nangona ngokuthe ngcembe, ngenxa yokunyuka okulindelweyo kokunyuka kwamaxabiso, ukuphelisa isibheno sobunini-zibambiso ezibonelela ngomthombo oqikelelweyo wengeniso kwikamva elibonakalayo.
NgoLwesithathu, isivuno seminyaka eyi-10 e-United States sifikelele kwi-2.42%, inqanaba layo eliphezulu ukususela ngoMeyi 2019. Iibhondi eYurophu ziye zalandela, kunye neebhondi zikarhulumente eJapan, apho ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuphantsi, kwaye ibhanki ephakathi kulindeleke ukuba ingayithobeli i-inflation. Indlela ye-hawkish yehlabathi, iphulukene nomhlaba kulo nyaka.
I-BoE kunye ne-ECB zijoyina ugqatso
Iimalike ngoku ziqikelela ubuncinci ukunyuka kwamaxabiso asixhenxe e-United States kulo nyaka. Ukongeza, iBhanki yaseNgilani inyuse inzala okwesithathu kule nyanga, kwaye iindleko zokuboleka kwexesha elifutshane zinokunyuka ngaphezu kwe-2% ekupheleni kwe-2022.
Kweyona ntlanganiso yamva nje, iBhanki Embindi yaseYurophu ibhengeze umoya okhawulezayo kunoko bekulindelwe wenkqubo yayo yokuthenga ibhondi. Umyalezo wayo we-hawkish ufika njengoko abenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo bejolise ekunyukeni kwamaxabiso erekhodi, nangona i-Eurozone iye yalimala kakhulu yimfazwe yase-Ukraine kunezinye ezininzi uqoqosho lwehlabathi.
Kuthetha ukuthini kwimarike yemasheya?
Ukunyuswa kwenzala ngoku kuvela kumanqanaba asezantsi kakhulu, kwaye imarike yemasheya yase-US ibonakala ikhululekile kunye nexabiso lemarike langoku lokunyuka kwereyithi ezisixhenxe ngaphambi kokuphela konyaka, okuzisa ireyithi yeNgxowa-mali ye-Fed ngaphezulu nje kwe-2%.
Ngaphandle kwento yokuba izabelo zamashishini ezingenanzala emisiweyo zibuyise uninzi lwelahleko yazo ukusukela oko iRussia yahlasela iUkraine, izalathisi ezibalaseleyo ezifana ne-S&P 500 ziqhubekile nokuwa kulo nyaka.
Iingcamango zokugqibela
Ngokukhula koqoqosho kuba yi-shakier, ukunyuka kwezinga le-Fed kunokwenzeka ukuba kuthintelwe. Ukongeza kwintsilelo yamandla kunye nemveliso, ukuphazamiseka kobonelelo, kunye nemfazwe eYurophu, uqoqosho lwehlabathi luyacotha njengoko iFederal Reserve ilungiselela ukuqalisa ukuthoba ibhalansi yayo.
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