NgoNovemba 30 • Amagqabantshintshi eMarike • 4822 izimvo • Comments Off EkuBhejeni kwi-Euro Collapse? Musa ukubamba umoya wakho, okanye urhwebo ngesikhundla sakho
Ukuba uye wafumana amava ambalwa amabi okurhweba mva nje ungafuna ukugcina ingcinga yeengqikelelo zeFX ezibonakala ziyimali enkulu ye-hedge fund kwiplanethi. Kucacile kuninzi lwalo nyaka ukuba le hedge fund ibheja ukuba 'iilima zabo ziya kukhala' ukuba ukuwa kwe-Euroland kukhokelela ekuweni kwemali ye-Euro.
Ngalo lonke ixesha i-euro inyuka kumjikelo olandelayo wengxaki intloko ye-hedge fund iba shushu phantsi kwekhola kunye nexesha lomoya licinga ukuba i-Euro ikwi-"death spiral". Ngelishwa abakhange baphendule ngentando yezopolitiko yokugcina imali ekwabelwana ngayo, okanye into yokuba i-greenback ayixabiswa ncam njenge-asethi ekhuselekileyo.
Ngelixa idola ifumene utyando lwakutsha nje, ngokwesalathiso esinesisindo se-Bloomberg, konke oko kunokupheliswa ukuba, okanye kunokwenzeka ngakumbi xa, umjikelo olandelayo we-gargantuan Fed ephefumlelweyo yolula yobungakanani kwenzeka.
Bona (FX) bangumbutho ojonge ukufumana inzuzo ekutshatyalalisweni kwe-Eurozone kwaye ngenxa yoko umgangatho wokuphila wezigidi, ngoko ke ukungacongi ingcinga (okanye i-dime) kunye nokuba konke ngaphandle kovelwano kuyaqondakala. UJohn Taylor, intloko yeengqikelelo zeFX ulawula malunga ne-5 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ukusuka eNew York, uqikelele amaxesha amaninzi ukusukela ngo-2010 ukuba i-euro iya kuwa kukulingana ngokuchasene nedola. Imali eqhelekileyo yenyuka ngeepesenti ze-0.1 ukuya kwi-1.3333 yeedola kwi-10: 50 ekuseni eNew York izolo.
Kwinyanga ephelileyo uthetha neBloomberg FX Concepts wathi; "Eyona nto ikhathazayo kukuba kufuneka siqhube kakuhle kwintengiso yehlabathi." Bakwaveze kudliwanondlebe luka-Okthobha eLondon ukuba baphulukene neepesenti ezili-12 kulo nyaka kwaye impahla ephantsi kolawulo yehle ngaphezulu kwesithathu ukuya kwi-5 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ukusuka kwi-8 yeebhiliyoni zeedola. “Senza kakubi kakhulu.”
Ngaba kuyamangalisa ukuba abazange balindele inqanaba lokuzibophezela ukugcina isizwe se-17 imali ekwabelwana ngayo? Kwanakwimbono “emfiliba” yomanyano lwemali olusaphilayo ngendlela ekulo ngoku, iyuro yamazwe ali-17 irhweba ngaphezu komlinganiselo wobomi bayo bonke be-$1.2044 ngenxa yamatyala athengwa yiEuropean Central Bank namaziko emali aseYurophu abuyisela imali. UTaylor ugqiba ngokwabelana “ngethemba” lakhe lekamva elimfiliba le-Eurozone kunye nezigidi zabemi bayo ukuze inkampani yakhe izuze kuko nakuphi na ukuwa.
Iibhanki ziyancipha kwaye zithengise zonke ii-asethi zazo ezingaselunxwemeni kwaye zizibuyisele eYurophu kwaye oko kuthetha ukuba enyanisweni, kukho umthengi othe gqolo wee-euro, ezingamaziko abo emali. Imbonakalo imfiliba, kodwa kusoloko kukho ithemba lokuba okukhona lisiba mfiliba, kokukhona oorhulumente beza kuvuka benze okuthile.
isishwankathelo
Izabelo zamashishini ezingenanzala emisiweyo kwihlabathi lonke ziye zehla okokuqala kwiintsuku ezintathu kwaye ikamva lesitokhwe sase-US liye latyibilika emva kokuba iStandard & Poor icuthe imilinganiselo yetyala kubabolekisi abasuka kwiBank of America Corp. ukuya eGoldman Sachs Group Inc. Ubhedu neoyile yehlile. I-Stoxx yaseYurophu i-600 Index yatshona ipesenti enye, ukuhla kokuqala kwiintsuku ezine. I-S&P 1 Index futures dip 500 pesenti. I-euro yenza buthathaka i-0.8 yeepesenti ngokuchasene nedola kwaye yehla nge-0.3 yeepesenti xa ithelekiswa ne-yen. Ubhedu lwehla ukuya kuthi ga kwi-0.2 yeepesenti kwaye i-oyile ihlehlisiwe ukusuka kwindawo ephakamileyo yeeveki ezimbini eNew York. Isalathiso seDola, esilandelela imali ngokuchasene namaqabane amathandathu arhweba, anyuke nge-2.2 ekhulwini emva kokurhoxa iintsuku ezimbini. I-euro yelizwe le-0.4 yawela kwi-$ 17 kwaye ithengiswa kwi-yen ye-1.3270, xa kuthelekiswa ne-103.53 izolo.
I-oyile yehla ukuya kuthi ga kwi-0.8 yeepesenti ukuya kwi-98.96 yeedola umphanda eNew York ngaphambi kokurhweba kwi-99.09 yeedola. I-Futures inyuke izolo ukuya kwinqanaba eliphezulu ukususela ngoNovemba 16 kwaye i-6.4 ipesenti kule nyanga. Ubhedu lweenyanga ezintathu lwehle ngeepesenti ezi-2 ukuya kwi-7,342.25 yee-metric toni eLondon.
iYurophu
Iintloko zikaRhulumente zaseYurophu zidibana ngo-Dec. 9 eBrussels, eJamani zifuna utshintsho lolawulo oluya kuqinisa ukunyanzeliswa kwemithetho yebhajethi. Le ntshukumo inokwenza kube lula ukuba iBhanki Ephakathi yaseYurophu idlale indima enkulu ekuxhaseni amazwe ase-euro, ngokubolekisa ngemali mboleko nge-IMF, amagosa amabini awaziyo lo mbandela izolo.
U-Arnaud Mares, umhlalutyi weMorgan Stanley, wabhala kwinqaku lophando izolo;
Ukuba bayasilela ukunikezela ngenkqubo-sikhokelo ethembekileyo ebandakanya omabini la macala, sinokulindela ukuba 'ukuqhuba' okuqhubekayo koorhulumente neebhanki kuya kukhawulezisa, kwaye kuyoyikwa kakhulu ukuba akunakuphinda kumiswe. Iziphumo zoqoqosho, ezentlalo nezopolitiko azinakuqondwa. Iiveki ezimbalwa ezizayo ke ngoko lixesha elibalulekileyo kwimbali yaseYurophu.
Ngelixa iinkokeli zithe i-leverage iya kwandisa i-440 billion-euro (i-584 yeebhiliyoni zeedola) ukufikelela kwi-EFSF kwi-1 yezigidigidi zee-euro, iGosa eliyiNtloko lesiGqeba uKlaus Regling uthe "akunakwenzeka ukunika inani elinye" kumandla engxowa-mali.
Imifanekiso eqingqiweyo yentengiso ngo-10: 00 kusasa GMT (ixesha lase-UK)
Iimarike zase-Asia zawela ngobusuku bokuqala ukuthengisa i-Nikkei ivaliwe i-0.51%, i-Hang Seng ivalwe i-1.46% kwaye i-CSI ivalwe i-3.34% kwaye ngoku iphantsi kwe-19.62% ngonyaka. I-ASX 200 ivale i-0.43%. Izalathi zebhourse yaseYurophu ziye zaphinda zavela kwiindawo zazo zokuvula ezibuthathaka. I-STOXX 50 okwangoku iphantsi kwe-1.01%, i-UK FTSE iphantsi kwe-0.55%, i-CAC iphantsi kwe-1.06%, i-DAX iphantsi kwe-0.83% kwaye i-MIB iphantsi kwe-0.4%.
ngeemali
I-euro yawa ipesenti ye-0.3 ukuya kwi-$ 1.3284 kwi-8: 57 am ixesha laseLondon emva kokuhla kwi-$ 1.3212 ngoNovemba 25, inqanaba elibuthathaka kakhulu ukususela ngo-Oktobha 4. Imali ekwabelwana ngayo yehla ipesenti ze-0.2 kwi-103.57 yen. I-yen yayitshintshile kancinci kwi-78.01 ngedola. I-euro yehle ngeepesenti ezi-4.2 xa ithelekiswa nedola kunye ne-4.4 yeepesenti ngokuchasene ne-yen kule nyanga njengoko kuqikelelwa ukuba ingxaki enkulu yamatyala isasazeka kumazwe amakhulu athomalalisa imfuno yempahla yalo mmandla.
I-dollar ifumene i-0.3 ekhulwini namhlanje, ngokutsho kwe-Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, okwenza kube yinzuzo enkulu phakathi kwe-10 yeemali zelizwe eziphuhlisiwe. I-yen iqhubele phambili ngeepesenti ze-0.2, kwaye i-euro buthathaka ipesenti ze-0.1.
Ukukhutshwa kwekhalenda yezoqoqosho enokuthi ichaphazele iseshoni yokurhweba emva kwemini
12:00 US – MBA Izicelo Mortgage 25 Nov
13:15 US – ADP Employment Change November
13:30 US – Imveliso engeyiyo eyeFama 3Q
I-13: I-30 yase-US-yeYunithi yeNdleko yezaBasebenzi 3Q
14:45 US - Chicago PMI Novemba
15:00 US-Okulindileyo uThengiso lwasekhaya ngo-Oktobha
Ngo-19: 00 e-US-Incwadi ye-Fed's Beige
Izinto ezikhutshwayo ezibalaseleyo inokuba ziinombolo zengqesho ze-ADP xa zinikwe amanani angezofama ngoLwesihlanu kunye nencwadi yeFed's beige.
Uphando lwaseBloomberg lwabahlalutyi luqikelela inani le-130,000 yokunyuka kwengqesho, xa kuthelekiswa ne-110,000 yenyanga ephelileyo.
Ingxelo yencwadi ye-beige iluncedo njengoko ivumela abatyali-mali ukuba babone ukuba yeyiphi ingcaciso amalungu e-FOMC aya kusekela isigqibo sabo phezu kwayo (kwaye ulwazi alunakwenzeka ukuba lube ngaphezu kweeveki ezimbini ubudala). Incwadi ye-Beige ayinikezeli ingqiqo kwiingcamango zamalungu e-FOMC kuqoqosho, nangona kunjalo; ichaza ngokulula iinyani malunga noqoqosho kwimimandla eyahlukeneyo yase-US.
euroeurozonefx iikhonsepthi
« I-Hopey Changey Into ayiphumelelanga Misela i-Phasers yakho ukuba yothuse »
Ukubheja kwi-Euro Collapse? Musa ukubamba umoya wakho, okanye urhwebo ngesikhundla sakho
NgoNovemba 30 • Amagqabantshintshi eMarike • 4822 izimvo • Comments Off EkuBhejeni kwi-Euro Collapse? Musa ukubamba umoya wakho, okanye urhwebo ngesikhundla sakho
Ukuba uye wafumana amava ambalwa amabi okurhweba mva nje ungafuna ukugcina ingcinga yeengqikelelo zeFX ezibonakala ziyimali enkulu ye-hedge fund kwiplanethi. Kucacile kuninzi lwalo nyaka ukuba le hedge fund ibheja ukuba 'iilima zabo ziya kukhala' ukuba ukuwa kwe-Euroland kukhokelela ekuweni kwemali ye-Euro.
Ngalo lonke ixesha i-euro inyuka kumjikelo olandelayo wengxaki intloko ye-hedge fund iba shushu phantsi kwekhola kunye nexesha lomoya licinga ukuba i-Euro ikwi-"death spiral". Ngelishwa abakhange baphendule ngentando yezopolitiko yokugcina imali ekwabelwana ngayo, okanye into yokuba i-greenback ayixabiswa ncam njenge-asethi ekhuselekileyo.
Ngelixa idola ifumene utyando lwakutsha nje, ngokwesalathiso esinesisindo se-Bloomberg, konke oko kunokupheliswa ukuba, okanye kunokwenzeka ngakumbi xa, umjikelo olandelayo we-gargantuan Fed ephefumlelweyo yolula yobungakanani kwenzeka.
Bona (FX) bangumbutho ojonge ukufumana inzuzo ekutshatyalalisweni kwe-Eurozone kwaye ngenxa yoko umgangatho wokuphila wezigidi, ngoko ke ukungacongi ingcinga (okanye i-dime) kunye nokuba konke ngaphandle kovelwano kuyaqondakala. UJohn Taylor, intloko yeengqikelelo zeFX ulawula malunga ne-5 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ukusuka eNew York, uqikelele amaxesha amaninzi ukusukela ngo-2010 ukuba i-euro iya kuwa kukulingana ngokuchasene nedola. Imali eqhelekileyo yenyuka ngeepesenti ze-0.1 ukuya kwi-1.3333 yeedola kwi-10: 50 ekuseni eNew York izolo.
Kwinyanga ephelileyo uthetha neBloomberg FX Concepts wathi; "Eyona nto ikhathazayo kukuba kufuneka siqhube kakuhle kwintengiso yehlabathi." Bakwaveze kudliwanondlebe luka-Okthobha eLondon ukuba baphulukene neepesenti ezili-12 kulo nyaka kwaye impahla ephantsi kolawulo yehle ngaphezulu kwesithathu ukuya kwi-5 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ukusuka kwi-8 yeebhiliyoni zeedola. “Senza kakubi kakhulu.”
Ngaba kuyamangalisa ukuba abazange balindele inqanaba lokuzibophezela ukugcina isizwe se-17 imali ekwabelwana ngayo? Kwanakwimbono “emfiliba” yomanyano lwemali olusaphilayo ngendlela ekulo ngoku, iyuro yamazwe ali-17 irhweba ngaphezu komlinganiselo wobomi bayo bonke be-$1.2044 ngenxa yamatyala athengwa yiEuropean Central Bank namaziko emali aseYurophu abuyisela imali. UTaylor ugqiba ngokwabelana “ngethemba” lakhe lekamva elimfiliba le-Eurozone kunye nezigidi zabemi bayo ukuze inkampani yakhe izuze kuko nakuphi na ukuwa.
Iibhanki ziyancipha kwaye zithengise zonke ii-asethi zazo ezingaselunxwemeni kwaye zizibuyisele eYurophu kwaye oko kuthetha ukuba enyanisweni, kukho umthengi othe gqolo wee-euro, ezingamaziko abo emali. Imbonakalo imfiliba, kodwa kusoloko kukho ithemba lokuba okukhona lisiba mfiliba, kokukhona oorhulumente beza kuvuka benze okuthile.
isishwankathelo
Izabelo zamashishini ezingenanzala emisiweyo kwihlabathi lonke ziye zehla okokuqala kwiintsuku ezintathu kwaye ikamva lesitokhwe sase-US liye latyibilika emva kokuba iStandard & Poor icuthe imilinganiselo yetyala kubabolekisi abasuka kwiBank of America Corp. ukuya eGoldman Sachs Group Inc. Ubhedu neoyile yehlile. I-Stoxx yaseYurophu i-600 Index yatshona ipesenti enye, ukuhla kokuqala kwiintsuku ezine. I-S&P 1 Index futures dip 500 pesenti. I-euro yenza buthathaka i-0.8 yeepesenti ngokuchasene nedola kwaye yehla nge-0.3 yeepesenti xa ithelekiswa ne-yen. Ubhedu lwehla ukuya kuthi ga kwi-0.2 yeepesenti kwaye i-oyile ihlehlisiwe ukusuka kwindawo ephakamileyo yeeveki ezimbini eNew York. Isalathiso seDola, esilandelela imali ngokuchasene namaqabane amathandathu arhweba, anyuke nge-2.2 ekhulwini emva kokurhoxa iintsuku ezimbini. I-euro yelizwe le-0.4 yawela kwi-$ 17 kwaye ithengiswa kwi-yen ye-1.3270, xa kuthelekiswa ne-103.53 izolo.
I-oyile yehla ukuya kuthi ga kwi-0.8 yeepesenti ukuya kwi-98.96 yeedola umphanda eNew York ngaphambi kokurhweba kwi-99.09 yeedola. I-Futures inyuke izolo ukuya kwinqanaba eliphezulu ukususela ngoNovemba 16 kwaye i-6.4 ipesenti kule nyanga. Ubhedu lweenyanga ezintathu lwehle ngeepesenti ezi-2 ukuya kwi-7,342.25 yee-metric toni eLondon.
iYurophu
Iintloko zikaRhulumente zaseYurophu zidibana ngo-Dec. 9 eBrussels, eJamani zifuna utshintsho lolawulo oluya kuqinisa ukunyanzeliswa kwemithetho yebhajethi. Le ntshukumo inokwenza kube lula ukuba iBhanki Ephakathi yaseYurophu idlale indima enkulu ekuxhaseni amazwe ase-euro, ngokubolekisa ngemali mboleko nge-IMF, amagosa amabini awaziyo lo mbandela izolo.
U-Arnaud Mares, umhlalutyi weMorgan Stanley, wabhala kwinqaku lophando izolo;
Ukuba bayasilela ukunikezela ngenkqubo-sikhokelo ethembekileyo ebandakanya omabini la macala, sinokulindela ukuba 'ukuqhuba' okuqhubekayo koorhulumente neebhanki kuya kukhawulezisa, kwaye kuyoyikwa kakhulu ukuba akunakuphinda kumiswe. Iziphumo zoqoqosho, ezentlalo nezopolitiko azinakuqondwa. Iiveki ezimbalwa ezizayo ke ngoko lixesha elibalulekileyo kwimbali yaseYurophu.
Ngelixa iinkokeli zithe i-leverage iya kwandisa i-440 billion-euro (i-584 yeebhiliyoni zeedola) ukufikelela kwi-EFSF kwi-1 yezigidigidi zee-euro, iGosa eliyiNtloko lesiGqeba uKlaus Regling uthe "akunakwenzeka ukunika inani elinye" kumandla engxowa-mali.
Imifanekiso eqingqiweyo yentengiso ngo-10: 00 kusasa GMT (ixesha lase-UK)
Iimarike zase-Asia zawela ngobusuku bokuqala ukuthengisa i-Nikkei ivaliwe i-0.51%, i-Hang Seng ivalwe i-1.46% kwaye i-CSI ivalwe i-3.34% kwaye ngoku iphantsi kwe-19.62% ngonyaka. I-ASX 200 ivale i-0.43%. Izalathi zebhourse yaseYurophu ziye zaphinda zavela kwiindawo zazo zokuvula ezibuthathaka. I-STOXX 50 okwangoku iphantsi kwe-1.01%, i-UK FTSE iphantsi kwe-0.55%, i-CAC iphantsi kwe-1.06%, i-DAX iphantsi kwe-0.83% kwaye i-MIB iphantsi kwe-0.4%.
ngeemali
I-euro yawa ipesenti ye-0.3 ukuya kwi-$ 1.3284 kwi-8: 57 am ixesha laseLondon emva kokuhla kwi-$ 1.3212 ngoNovemba 25, inqanaba elibuthathaka kakhulu ukususela ngo-Oktobha 4. Imali ekwabelwana ngayo yehla ipesenti ze-0.2 kwi-103.57 yen. I-yen yayitshintshile kancinci kwi-78.01 ngedola. I-euro yehle ngeepesenti ezi-4.2 xa ithelekiswa nedola kunye ne-4.4 yeepesenti ngokuchasene ne-yen kule nyanga njengoko kuqikelelwa ukuba ingxaki enkulu yamatyala isasazeka kumazwe amakhulu athomalalisa imfuno yempahla yalo mmandla.
I-dollar ifumene i-0.3 ekhulwini namhlanje, ngokutsho kwe-Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, okwenza kube yinzuzo enkulu phakathi kwe-10 yeemali zelizwe eziphuhlisiwe. I-yen iqhubele phambili ngeepesenti ze-0.2, kwaye i-euro buthathaka ipesenti ze-0.1.
Ukukhutshwa kwekhalenda yezoqoqosho enokuthi ichaphazele iseshoni yokurhweba emva kwemini
12:00 US – MBA Izicelo Mortgage 25 Nov
13:15 US – ADP Employment Change November
13:30 US – Imveliso engeyiyo eyeFama 3Q
I-13: I-30 yase-US-yeYunithi yeNdleko yezaBasebenzi 3Q
14:45 US - Chicago PMI Novemba
15:00 US-Okulindileyo uThengiso lwasekhaya ngo-Oktobha
Ngo-19: 00 e-US-Incwadi ye-Fed's Beige
Izinto ezikhutshwayo ezibalaseleyo inokuba ziinombolo zengqesho ze-ADP xa zinikwe amanani angezofama ngoLwesihlanu kunye nencwadi yeFed's beige.
Uphando lwaseBloomberg lwabahlalutyi luqikelela inani le-130,000 yokunyuka kwengqesho, xa kuthelekiswa ne-110,000 yenyanga ephelileyo.
Ingxelo yencwadi ye-beige iluncedo njengoko ivumela abatyali-mali ukuba babone ukuba yeyiphi ingcaciso amalungu e-FOMC aya kusekela isigqibo sabo phezu kwayo (kwaye ulwazi alunakwenzeka ukuba lube ngaphezu kweeveki ezimbini ubudala). Incwadi ye-Beige ayinikezeli ingqiqo kwiingcamango zamalungu e-FOMC kuqoqosho, nangona kunjalo; ichaza ngokulula iinyani malunga noqoqosho kwimimandla eyahlukeneyo yase-US.
euroeurozonefx iikhonsepthi
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