NgoSeptemba 13 • Amagqabantshintshi eMarike • 8101 izimvo • 1 Comment eOstreliya, kutheni abarhwebi 'beboom and goom' bendanda belola iimela zabo?
Kuyo yonke i-maelstrom yezemali yehlabathi ebikho ukusukela ngo-2007-2008 i-Australia ithe gqolo ukuyiphelisa le ntsingiselo. Kwanothotho lwezikhukula ezibuhlungu eziye zafunyanwa ngoJan kulo nyaka (2011) zibonakale zibhuqa okwethutyana ilizwe elikhulu ekuthembekeni kwalo njengelona gunya liphambili lehlabathi. I-GDP yase-Australia ngomntu ngamnye iphezulu kunaleyo yase-UK, eJamani, naseFransi ngokumalunga nokuthengwa kwamandla. Ilizwe libekwe kwindawo yesibini kwi-United Nations 2009 Human Development Index kwaye lihlala likwinqanaba eliphezulu kwi-Economist's world quality-of-life index.
I-Australia lelinye lawona mazwe akhula ngokukhawuleza kwezoqoqosho kwiplanethi yethu. I-IMF iqikelela ukuba i-Australia iya kudlula uninzi lolunye uqoqosho oluqhubela phambili ngo-2011 ngenxa yokwanda okuzinzileyo kwemfuno yaseTshayina yezinto zorhwebo zase-Australia. Ngo-2010, i-Australia yathumela ngaphandle kwe-US $ 48.6 yebhiliyoni yempahla e-China, amaxesha alithoba ngaphezu kweminyaka elishumi edlulileyo. Ushishino lwezimayini lunengeniso, ukuthunyelwa kwentsimbi ekrwada kumazwe angaphandle kubalele ngaphezu kwesiqingatha semveliso yase-Australia ethunyelwa eTshayina. Imigodi kunye nokulima kulindeleke ukuba kuqhubele ukukhula koqoqosho lwaseOstreliya kungekudala. I-Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences iqikelela ukuba imveliso yasemgodini iya kunyuka nge-10.2 ekhulwini ngo-2010-2011 kwaye imveliso yasefama inokunyuka nge-8.9 ekhulwini.
Uqoqosho lwaseOstreliya kulindeleke ukuba lukhule kule minyaka mihlanu izayo. I-2011 ukuya ku-2015 inokungqina i-GDP yase-Australia ikhula nge-4.81 ukuya kwi-5.09 ekhulwini ngonyaka. Ekupheleni kuka-2015, i-GDP yase-Australia kulindeleke ukuba ibe yi-US $ 1.122 yetriliyoni. I-GDP yase-Australia ngomntu ngamnye iqikelelwa ukukhula okunempilo. Ngo-2010, i-GDP yase-Australia ngomntu ibiyeyeshumi ephezulu kwihlabathi – ikhula ukusuka kwi-US$38,633.17 ngo-2009 ukuya kwi-US$39,692.06. Ngo-2011, i-GDP yase-Australia ngomntu ngamnye inokunyuka nge-3.52 yeepesenti ukuya kwi-US$41,089.17. Iminyaka emine elandelayo ingabona ukukhula okungaguquguqukiyo kwi-GDP yase-Australia ngomntu ngamnye, okukhokelela kwi-GDP ngomntu ngamnye eyi-US$47,445.58 ekupheleni kowama-2015.
Amanani amva nje akhutshwe yi-Australian Bureau of Statistics abonisa ukuba ulungelelwaniso lwempahla neenkonzo zelizwe lufikelele kwintsalela ehlengahlengisiweyo ye-1.826 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngenyanga. Uqoqosho lwase-Australia luphinde lwaqina ngamandla kwikota yesibini ngokukhula okungaphezulu kunoko bekulindelwe kwipesenti ezi-1.2 eziqhutywa lutyalo-mali lweshishini, inkcitho yendlu kunye nokwakhiwa koluhlu lweempahla. U-Annette Beacher, intloko ye-Asia-Pacific uphando kwi-TD Securities ilindele ukuba i-GDP inyuke ukuya kwi-2 yeepesenti kwi-2011 kunye ne-4.5 ipesenti kunyaka olandelayo.
Ngokwe-forecast rate yentswela-ngqesho enikezelwa yi-IMF, intswela-ngqesho iya kubona ukuhla komda ukuya kwi-5.025 ekhulwini ekupheleni kuka-2012. Emva koko, balindele ukuba izinga lokungasebenzi (ukusuka kwi-2013 ukuya kwi-2015) lihlale lihlala lihlala kwi-4.8 ekhulwini.
Njengoninzi lolunye uqoqosho oluphambili Uqoqosho lwase-Australia lulawulwa licandelo lenkonzo yalo, emele i-68% ye-GDP yase-Australia, ukuthengwa kwabathengi yinxalenye enkulu. Ukukhula kwicandelo leenkonzo kukhule kakhulu, iinkonzo zepropathi nezoshishino zikhule ukusuka kwi-10% ukuya kwi-14.5% ye-GDP kwangelo xesha linye, nto leyo eyenze ukuba ibe lelona candelo likhulu kwi-GDP yeli candelo. Oku kukhula kube yindleko yecandelo lemveliso, elithe ngo-2006-07 lathatha malunga ne-12% ye-GDP. Kwiminyaka elishumi ngaphambili, ibilelona candelo likhulu kwezoqoqosho, libalelwa ngaphezulu nje kwe-15% yeGDP. Imimandla yangoku exhalabisayo kwabanye oosoqoqosho ibandakanya intsilelo ye-akhawunti yase-Australia yangoku, ukungabikho koshishino oluyimpumelelo lwemveliso ejolise kumazwe angaphandle, iqamza lepropathi yase-Australia, kunye namanqanaba aphezulu etyala langaphandle elityalwa licandelo labucala.
Amacandelo ezolimo nawemigodi (i-10% ye-GDP idityanisiwe) ithatha malunga nama-57% okuthunyelwa kwelizwe kumazwe angaphandle. Uqoqosho lwase-Australia luxhomekeke kwi-oyile ekrwada nemveliso yepetroleum ethengwa kumazwe angaphandle, ukuxhomekeka kwepetroleum kuqoqosho lwelizwe kumalunga nama-80% – iimveliso zepetroleum ye-oyile ekrwada.
Ke kutheni kukhankanywa kakhulu nge-Australia boom gloom kunye nentshabalalo kumajelo eendaba mva nje?
Kubonakala kubachazi abaninzi ukuba iOstreliya inokuba ilichithile ilifa layo legolide kwaye yaziqhubela ekubeni luqoqosho olunomgangatho omnye. Ngelixa iyintsomi yezoqoqosho ukuba i-80% yeshishini lakho isuka kwi-20% yesiseko sabathengi bakho, i-Australia iyithathele phezulu loo nto, ibonakala inomthengi omnye kunye noluhlu olumxinwa kakhulu lwemveliso yokuxhasa iphulo labo lokuthumela ngaphandle. Ukuba i-China iyacotha, okanye ayikwazi ukuhlawula imida eyonyukileyo kwizinto zayo ezikrwada, ngelixa ukuthengwa kwempahla evela e-Australia kuqhubeka kubiza ngaphezulu, eli lizwe likhulu linokuzifumanisa likuxinzelelo olungaqhelekanga lwezoqoqosho. Amaxabiso ezindlu, laa ndlela isisigxina 'i-Aussie punt', ekugqibeleni ibethe i-buffers kwaye ngoku umdlalo we-spoof ufikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu, umndilili we-Aussie uziva engazithembi kangako. Ngesalathiso sayo esiphambili (i-ASX) esihla malunga ne-11.5% ngonyaka ngonyaka loo nto yokungazithembi ikhuliswa yimbuyekezo ye pension kunye ne-investment. Kukwakho nentuthuzelo encinci efumaneka kwinzala ephezulu ye-4.75% kwimali eyongiwe xa kujongwa imeko yeendleko zokubambisa.
Kukho isixa esikhulu se-hype esixhasa inkolelo yokuba imigodi lishishini elikhulu lase-Australia. Kuhlolisiso lwakutshanje olwenziwa liZiko laseOstreliya, kuye kwafunyaniswa ukuba abantu baseOstreliya bacingela ngokugqithiseleyo ubukhulu nokubaluleka koshishino lwemigodi. Xa bebuzwa ukuba likhulu kangakanani eli candelo, abantu ababuzwayo bacinga ukuba ishishini lemigodi liqeshe i-16 lepesenti yabasebenzi baseOstreliya, ngelixa elona nani liyi-1.9 ekhulwini. Le ngxelo idiza ukuba nangona ukukhula kwemigodi kudale imisebenzi emitsha, izibonelelo ziyintsikelelo edibeneyo kuqoqosho.
“Ukukhula kwezoqoqosho eNtshona Australia kuncede ukugcina izinga lentswela-ngqesho liphantsi, kodwa ukukhula kuthethe ukuba iBhanki enguVimba yonyuse inzala ukuze 'ivule ithuba' lokukhula ngokucotha ukukhula kwamanye amacandelo. Iindleko zalo mgaqo-nkqubo zithwalwe kakhulu ngabo banamatyala amakhulu, iintsapho eziselula ngokwesiqhelo.”
“Ukuba abarholi bemivuzo bebenokuxhamla kwinkqubela phambili yezimayini bekuya kufuneka kunyuke imivuzo yokwenyani xa kuthelekiswa noko bebeza kukufumana ngabasebenzi. Ngelishwa, abukho ubungqina bokuba le nto yenzekile.”
Umalathisi olawulayo weli ziko uRichard Denniss, unikela ingxelo yokuba imbono kawonke-wonke yobukhulu nokubaluleka koshishino lwemigodi kuqoqosho lwaseOstreliya yahlukile kwizibakala.
"Uphononongo lufumanise ukuba abantu base-Australia bakholelwa ukuba imigodi yenza ngaphezu kwesinye kwisithathu semisebenzi yezoqoqosho kodwa amanani e-Australian Bureau of Statistics abonisa ukuba ishishini lemigodi lithatha malunga ne-9.2per cent ye-GDP, malunga negalelo elifanayo nelemveliso kwaye lincinci kunemali. ishishini. Ishishini lezimayini liyathanda ukuzibonakalisa njengomqeshi omkhulu, umrhafi omkhulu kunye nomenzi-mali omkhulu kubaninizabelo base-Australia, kodwa inyaniso ayihambelani nentetho. Izibhengezo zeshishini lezimayini ziyayihoya indlela yokukhula kwezemigodi okulinyusayo izinga lotshintshiselwano, kuqhubela phambili inzala yemali-mboleko yemali-mboleko kwaye kuthoba ingqesho kwamanye amacandelo ezoqoqosho.” UGqr Denniss uthe le ngxelo idize ukuba ukuchuma kwemigodi ngokwenene kuqhubele phambili ukuqhuma okuyingozi kwintsilelo ye-akhawunti yangoku.
Ngokufana ne-UK, efumana i-bonanza yegesi kunye ne-oyile, uloyiko kukuba ilizwe linokuba lifikelele 'kwindawo yokuncamela' ekukhuleni kwezinto zorhwebo, apho ukuba amaxabiso e-oyile ekrwada ahlala enenkani ephezulu ukukhula kwe-Ostreliya kunokungqineka kune-anemia. Intsilelo yonyaka kwiinkonzo ime kwirekhodi ye-7.19 yeebhiliyoni zeedola.
IPetrol, eyona nto ithengwa kakhulu lusapho eOstreliya veki nganye, inyuke iye kwelona xabiso liphezulu kwiinyanga ezine. Ngelixa abantu base-Australia bexakekile bevuyisana nabo ngokufumana iirisithi eziphezulu zamalahle, intsimbi ekrwada kunye negolide, abanakulibala ukuba idola yase-Australia ephezulu inegalelo kwintsilelo yeenkonzo zerekhodi. Imali iyangena, kodwa iphinde iphume..uloyiko kukuba i-ebb and tide ayikho kwi-Australia yexesha elide.
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Ostreliya, kutheni le nto abathengisi 'bebhola nesithokothoko' bejikeleza kwaye belola iimela zabo?
NgoSeptemba 13 • Amagqabantshintshi eMarike • 8101 izimvo • 1 Comment eOstreliya, kutheni abarhwebi 'beboom and goom' bendanda belola iimela zabo?
Kuyo yonke i-maelstrom yezemali yehlabathi ebikho ukusukela ngo-2007-2008 i-Australia ithe gqolo ukuyiphelisa le ntsingiselo. Kwanothotho lwezikhukula ezibuhlungu eziye zafunyanwa ngoJan kulo nyaka (2011) zibonakale zibhuqa okwethutyana ilizwe elikhulu ekuthembekeni kwalo njengelona gunya liphambili lehlabathi. I-GDP yase-Australia ngomntu ngamnye iphezulu kunaleyo yase-UK, eJamani, naseFransi ngokumalunga nokuthengwa kwamandla. Ilizwe libekwe kwindawo yesibini kwi-United Nations 2009 Human Development Index kwaye lihlala likwinqanaba eliphezulu kwi-Economist's world quality-of-life index.
I-Australia lelinye lawona mazwe akhula ngokukhawuleza kwezoqoqosho kwiplanethi yethu. I-IMF iqikelela ukuba i-Australia iya kudlula uninzi lolunye uqoqosho oluqhubela phambili ngo-2011 ngenxa yokwanda okuzinzileyo kwemfuno yaseTshayina yezinto zorhwebo zase-Australia. Ngo-2010, i-Australia yathumela ngaphandle kwe-US $ 48.6 yebhiliyoni yempahla e-China, amaxesha alithoba ngaphezu kweminyaka elishumi edlulileyo. Ushishino lwezimayini lunengeniso, ukuthunyelwa kwentsimbi ekrwada kumazwe angaphandle kubalele ngaphezu kwesiqingatha semveliso yase-Australia ethunyelwa eTshayina. Imigodi kunye nokulima kulindeleke ukuba kuqhubele ukukhula koqoqosho lwaseOstreliya kungekudala. I-Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences iqikelela ukuba imveliso yasemgodini iya kunyuka nge-10.2 ekhulwini ngo-2010-2011 kwaye imveliso yasefama inokunyuka nge-8.9 ekhulwini.
Uqoqosho lwaseOstreliya kulindeleke ukuba lukhule kule minyaka mihlanu izayo. I-2011 ukuya ku-2015 inokungqina i-GDP yase-Australia ikhula nge-4.81 ukuya kwi-5.09 ekhulwini ngonyaka. Ekupheleni kuka-2015, i-GDP yase-Australia kulindeleke ukuba ibe yi-US $ 1.122 yetriliyoni. I-GDP yase-Australia ngomntu ngamnye iqikelelwa ukukhula okunempilo. Ngo-2010, i-GDP yase-Australia ngomntu ibiyeyeshumi ephezulu kwihlabathi – ikhula ukusuka kwi-US$38,633.17 ngo-2009 ukuya kwi-US$39,692.06. Ngo-2011, i-GDP yase-Australia ngomntu ngamnye inokunyuka nge-3.52 yeepesenti ukuya kwi-US$41,089.17. Iminyaka emine elandelayo ingabona ukukhula okungaguquguqukiyo kwi-GDP yase-Australia ngomntu ngamnye, okukhokelela kwi-GDP ngomntu ngamnye eyi-US$47,445.58 ekupheleni kowama-2015.
Amanani amva nje akhutshwe yi-Australian Bureau of Statistics abonisa ukuba ulungelelwaniso lwempahla neenkonzo zelizwe lufikelele kwintsalela ehlengahlengisiweyo ye-1.826 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngenyanga. Uqoqosho lwase-Australia luphinde lwaqina ngamandla kwikota yesibini ngokukhula okungaphezulu kunoko bekulindelwe kwipesenti ezi-1.2 eziqhutywa lutyalo-mali lweshishini, inkcitho yendlu kunye nokwakhiwa koluhlu lweempahla. U-Annette Beacher, intloko ye-Asia-Pacific uphando kwi-TD Securities ilindele ukuba i-GDP inyuke ukuya kwi-2 yeepesenti kwi-2011 kunye ne-4.5 ipesenti kunyaka olandelayo.
Ngokwe-forecast rate yentswela-ngqesho enikezelwa yi-IMF, intswela-ngqesho iya kubona ukuhla komda ukuya kwi-5.025 ekhulwini ekupheleni kuka-2012. Emva koko, balindele ukuba izinga lokungasebenzi (ukusuka kwi-2013 ukuya kwi-2015) lihlale lihlala lihlala kwi-4.8 ekhulwini.
Njengoninzi lolunye uqoqosho oluphambili Uqoqosho lwase-Australia lulawulwa licandelo lenkonzo yalo, emele i-68% ye-GDP yase-Australia, ukuthengwa kwabathengi yinxalenye enkulu. Ukukhula kwicandelo leenkonzo kukhule kakhulu, iinkonzo zepropathi nezoshishino zikhule ukusuka kwi-10% ukuya kwi-14.5% ye-GDP kwangelo xesha linye, nto leyo eyenze ukuba ibe lelona candelo likhulu kwi-GDP yeli candelo. Oku kukhula kube yindleko yecandelo lemveliso, elithe ngo-2006-07 lathatha malunga ne-12% ye-GDP. Kwiminyaka elishumi ngaphambili, ibilelona candelo likhulu kwezoqoqosho, libalelwa ngaphezulu nje kwe-15% yeGDP. Imimandla yangoku exhalabisayo kwabanye oosoqoqosho ibandakanya intsilelo ye-akhawunti yase-Australia yangoku, ukungabikho koshishino oluyimpumelelo lwemveliso ejolise kumazwe angaphandle, iqamza lepropathi yase-Australia, kunye namanqanaba aphezulu etyala langaphandle elityalwa licandelo labucala.
Amacandelo ezolimo nawemigodi (i-10% ye-GDP idityanisiwe) ithatha malunga nama-57% okuthunyelwa kwelizwe kumazwe angaphandle. Uqoqosho lwase-Australia luxhomekeke kwi-oyile ekrwada nemveliso yepetroleum ethengwa kumazwe angaphandle, ukuxhomekeka kwepetroleum kuqoqosho lwelizwe kumalunga nama-80% – iimveliso zepetroleum ye-oyile ekrwada.
Ke kutheni kukhankanywa kakhulu nge-Australia boom gloom kunye nentshabalalo kumajelo eendaba mva nje?
Kubonakala kubachazi abaninzi ukuba iOstreliya inokuba ilichithile ilifa layo legolide kwaye yaziqhubela ekubeni luqoqosho olunomgangatho omnye. Ngelixa iyintsomi yezoqoqosho ukuba i-80% yeshishini lakho isuka kwi-20% yesiseko sabathengi bakho, i-Australia iyithathele phezulu loo nto, ibonakala inomthengi omnye kunye noluhlu olumxinwa kakhulu lwemveliso yokuxhasa iphulo labo lokuthumela ngaphandle. Ukuba i-China iyacotha, okanye ayikwazi ukuhlawula imida eyonyukileyo kwizinto zayo ezikrwada, ngelixa ukuthengwa kwempahla evela e-Australia kuqhubeka kubiza ngaphezulu, eli lizwe likhulu linokuzifumanisa likuxinzelelo olungaqhelekanga lwezoqoqosho. Amaxabiso ezindlu, laa ndlela isisigxina 'i-Aussie punt', ekugqibeleni ibethe i-buffers kwaye ngoku umdlalo we-spoof ufikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu, umndilili we-Aussie uziva engazithembi kangako. Ngesalathiso sayo esiphambili (i-ASX) esihla malunga ne-11.5% ngonyaka ngonyaka loo nto yokungazithembi ikhuliswa yimbuyekezo ye pension kunye ne-investment. Kukwakho nentuthuzelo encinci efumaneka kwinzala ephezulu ye-4.75% kwimali eyongiwe xa kujongwa imeko yeendleko zokubambisa.
Kukho isixa esikhulu se-hype esixhasa inkolelo yokuba imigodi lishishini elikhulu lase-Australia. Kuhlolisiso lwakutshanje olwenziwa liZiko laseOstreliya, kuye kwafunyaniswa ukuba abantu baseOstreliya bacingela ngokugqithiseleyo ubukhulu nokubaluleka koshishino lwemigodi. Xa bebuzwa ukuba likhulu kangakanani eli candelo, abantu ababuzwayo bacinga ukuba ishishini lemigodi liqeshe i-16 lepesenti yabasebenzi baseOstreliya, ngelixa elona nani liyi-1.9 ekhulwini. Le ngxelo idiza ukuba nangona ukukhula kwemigodi kudale imisebenzi emitsha, izibonelelo ziyintsikelelo edibeneyo kuqoqosho.
“Ukukhula kwezoqoqosho eNtshona Australia kuncede ukugcina izinga lentswela-ngqesho liphantsi, kodwa ukukhula kuthethe ukuba iBhanki enguVimba yonyuse inzala ukuze 'ivule ithuba' lokukhula ngokucotha ukukhula kwamanye amacandelo. Iindleko zalo mgaqo-nkqubo zithwalwe kakhulu ngabo banamatyala amakhulu, iintsapho eziselula ngokwesiqhelo.”
“Ukuba abarholi bemivuzo bebenokuxhamla kwinkqubela phambili yezimayini bekuya kufuneka kunyuke imivuzo yokwenyani xa kuthelekiswa noko bebeza kukufumana ngabasebenzi. Ngelishwa, abukho ubungqina bokuba le nto yenzekile.”
Umalathisi olawulayo weli ziko uRichard Denniss, unikela ingxelo yokuba imbono kawonke-wonke yobukhulu nokubaluleka koshishino lwemigodi kuqoqosho lwaseOstreliya yahlukile kwizibakala.
"Uphononongo lufumanise ukuba abantu base-Australia bakholelwa ukuba imigodi yenza ngaphezu kwesinye kwisithathu semisebenzi yezoqoqosho kodwa amanani e-Australian Bureau of Statistics abonisa ukuba ishishini lemigodi lithatha malunga ne-9.2per cent ye-GDP, malunga negalelo elifanayo nelemveliso kwaye lincinci kunemali. ishishini. Ishishini lezimayini liyathanda ukuzibonakalisa njengomqeshi omkhulu, umrhafi omkhulu kunye nomenzi-mali omkhulu kubaninizabelo base-Australia, kodwa inyaniso ayihambelani nentetho. Izibhengezo zeshishini lezimayini ziyayihoya indlela yokukhula kwezemigodi okulinyusayo izinga lotshintshiselwano, kuqhubela phambili inzala yemali-mboleko yemali-mboleko kwaye kuthoba ingqesho kwamanye amacandelo ezoqoqosho.” UGqr Denniss uthe le ngxelo idize ukuba ukuchuma kwemigodi ngokwenene kuqhubele phambili ukuqhuma okuyingozi kwintsilelo ye-akhawunti yangoku.
Ngokufana ne-UK, efumana i-bonanza yegesi kunye ne-oyile, uloyiko kukuba ilizwe linokuba lifikelele 'kwindawo yokuncamela' ekukhuleni kwezinto zorhwebo, apho ukuba amaxabiso e-oyile ekrwada ahlala enenkani ephezulu ukukhula kwe-Ostreliya kunokungqineka kune-anemia. Intsilelo yonyaka kwiinkonzo ime kwirekhodi ye-7.19 yeebhiliyoni zeedola.
IPetrol, eyona nto ithengwa kakhulu lusapho eOstreliya veki nganye, inyuke iye kwelona xabiso liphezulu kwiinyanga ezine. Ngelixa abantu base-Australia bexakekile bevuyisana nabo ngokufumana iirisithi eziphezulu zamalahle, intsimbi ekrwada kunye negolide, abanakulibala ukuba idola yase-Australia ephezulu inegalelo kwintsilelo yeenkonzo zerekhodi. Imali iyangena, kodwa iphinde iphume..uloyiko kukuba i-ebb and tide ayikho kwi-Australia yexesha elide.
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