Hlakola 18 • Lingoloa tsa Forex Trading, Litlhaloso tsa Mmaraka, Moqolo oa Hoseng • 1613 Maikutlo • litlhaloso Off lipuong tse ntseng li tsoela pele tsa China le USA tsa khoebo, CPI ea Japane, metsotso ea FOMC le mokoloko oa li-PMI tse amanang le Europe, ke liketsahalo tsa bohlokoa tsa khalendara tse nang le tšusumetso e kholo ho beha leihlo bekeng ena.
Limmaraka tsa lichelete tsa USA li qetile ka katleho ka Labohlano la la 15 Hlakola, DJIA e koetse 1.74% 'me SPX ea nyoloha ka 1.09%. Ho kengoa tšebetsong ha maemo a tšohanyetso a naha ke Trump, ho fumana chelete bakeng sa lebota la hae la moeli oa Mexico, ho ne ho sa lekana ho theola boits'epo ba mmaraka, joalo ka ha ts'epo e ile ea ntlafatsoa lenaneong la khoebo la New York, hore lipuo tsa khoebo le tsa litefiso tsa USA-China li tla baka litholoana tse ntle sephetho.
La 1 Hlakubele e behiloe joalo ka letsatsi la ho felisa tumellano, ho thibela litefiso tsa kantle ho naha tsa 25% ho sebelisoa ho $ 200b ea kantle ho naha ea China ho ea USA. Tšokelo ena e sa hlonepheng ea tsamaiso ea Trump, e bonahala e le boikoetliso bo sa hlonepheng ke 'muso oa USA, ho qala ho fokotsa khaello ea eona e kholo ea khoebo le China, ka khopolo ke circa $ 50b ka 2019. Leha ho le joalo, moruong o hokahaneng lefatšeng ka bophara, lipalo tse bonolo joalo ke ho ke ke ha etsahala hore o fumane tharollo, haeba o ka kenngwa tšebetsong
Ho hloleha ho fihlela tumellano ho ka etsa hore mebaraka ea lichelete ea USA e fetohe le dollar ea Amerika e hlahlojoe haholo nakong ea beke ea khoebo. Kameho ea lichelete tsa lichelete le lichelete e ka atoloha ho mebaraka e meng ea lefatše, haholo mebaraka ea Asia, e natefelitsoeng ke kopano ea bohlokoa selemong sa 2019 ho fihlela joale. Leha e rekisitsoe ka lichelete tsa China ka Labohlano, ha CSI e koala 1.86%, index e nyolohile ka 10.9% ka 2019. Ka mokhoa o ts'oanang, mebaraka e meholo ea Majapane e bile le qalo e ntle ho 2019; leha e koetse 1.1.3% ka Labohlano, index ea NIKKEI e phahame ka 4.43% selemo ho fihlela joale ho 2019.
Empa ho phahama hona ha morao tjena ho tlameha ho bonoa moelelong oa ho oela ho 20,900 ka Labohlano ho index e etelletseng pele ea Japane, ho tloha holimo ho circa 24,450, e hatisitsoeng ka 2018. 'Me limmaraka tsohle tsa Asia tsa equity li kanna tsa oela, haeba USA-China kamano ea senyeha. Mmuso oa Japane le ona o kanna oa ba radar ea tsamaiso ea Trump, haeba ba lumela hore khaello ea khoebo ea selemo le selemo ea $ 70b le Japane e hloka ho rarolloa. Selemo le selemo, USD / JPY e nyoloha ka circa 4.06%, e beha sekoaelo se sebetsang khaellong ea khoebo le Japane, hajoale.
Ka Sontaha mantsiboea liodara tsa morao-rao tsa mochini oa Japane li tla phatlalatsoa, tebello ke hore YoY ho phahama ha 3.4% ho tla ngolisoa. Yen e kanna ea hlahlojoa le ho feta ka lebaka la tokollo ena, haeba e ka hloloheloa kapa ea otla ponelopele. Lipalo-palo tsa morao-rao tsa infoleishene bakeng sa Japane le tsona li ka khutlisetsa maikutlo ho Yen, ha lipalo tsa morao-rao tsa theko ea moruo oa bone o moholo ka ho fetisisa lefatšeng li phatlalatsoa hamorao bekeng, ka Labone la la 4 ho isa ho 21:23 bosiu. Ho latela ponelopele ea morao-rao ea Reuters, sekhahla sa theko ea mantlha ea CPI se theohetse ho 30% ho tloha 0.2%, ka Pherekhong YoY. Litaba tse ling tsa khalendara mabapi le moruo oa Japane bekeng ena, tse ka amang boleng ba yen, li kenyelletsa lipalo tsa morao-rao tsa kantle ho naha le kantle ho naha, tse boletsoeng esale pele ke Reuters ho senyeha ho YoY ho fihlela ka Pherekhong, leha tekanyetso ea khoebo ka kakaretso e lebelletsoe ho senola bophelo bo botle ntlafatso.
Ho sa natsoe likhohlano tse ntseng li tsoela pele tsa khoebo le tsoelo-pele e 'ngoe e ka bang teng lipolotiking, ho na le liketsahalo tse' maloa tsa khalendara tse nang le tšusumetso e kholo tse ka amang boleng ba mebaraka ea lichelete tsa USA le boleng ba USD hara beke. Haholo-holo; ho tla phatlalatsoa metsotso ea kopano ea FOMC ea Pherekhong. Qetellong eo sekhahla sa phaello ea bohlokoa se lutseng se sa fetohe ho 2.5% ha Jerome Powell, molulasetulo oa Fed, a fana ka polelo e makatsang ea leano la lichelete.
Ho tloha khale, metsotso ea FOMC e na le bokhoni ba ho tsamaisa mmaraka ka USD khahlanong le lithaka tsa eona, haholo haeba tataiso ea pele e fumanehang metsotsong e bonahala e kheloha boitlamo ba pejana. Batseteli le baqhekelli ba tla batla bopaki bofe kapa bofe ba hore FOMC / Fed e batla ho khutlisa boitlamo ba bona ba pele; ho nyolla sekhahla sa tsoala makhetlo a mararo, nakong ea 2019.
Litaba tse kholo tsa khalendara ea tšusumetso e kholo bakeng sa Europe hara beke, li kenyelletsa li-PMI tsa morao-rao tsa IHS Markit, tse tla phatlalatsoa ka Labone. Li-Eurozone's, tsa Jeremane le tsa Fora: tlhahiso, lits'ebeletso le ho bapisa li-PMI, li tla senoloa. Bahlahlobisisi le barekisi ba FX ba tla lekola likhaolo ka hloko, bakeng sa matšoao a hore likarolo tsohle li kanna tsa bapala le moruo. Lipalo tse kaholimo ho 50 li supa kholo, ka tlase ho 50 li emela khutsufatso
Tšoantšiso e tsoelang pele ea Brexit e tla ba maemong a holimo le bahoebi ba FX, ba ikhethang ka ho rekisa lipara tse ntle tsa lichelete bekeng ena. Joalo ka bekeng e fetileng, lipara tse kang GBP / USD, tseo ka linako tse ling li ileng tsa otloa ka liphaphatha ka bongata, ha li ntse li boloka pono e felletseng, joalo ka ha lipale tse fapaneng tsa litaba tse mabapi le Brexit li ile tsa robeha. Bekeng ena litaba tse kholo tsa khalendara tse nang le tšusumetso e kholo mabapi le UK li kenyelletsa lipalo tsa morao-rao tsa kalimo ea lekala la sechaba, tse lebelletsoeng hore li tla mpefala khoeling ea Pherekhong. Ntle le lihlopha tsa banka, khaello e boletsoe ke Reuters ho tla ka - £ 10b bakeng sa khoeli, ho fapana le £ 3b ka Tshitwe.
Ho senyeha ho joalo hoa ponelopele (haeba ho ka kopana), ho ka makatsa batseteli le likhakanyo. Ka tlhaho Brexit e kanna ea sebelisoa e le lebaka le lokisitsoeng, joalo ka nako ea selemo, mabapi le lirisiti tsa lekhetho, le eona e ka beoa molato. Hore na mabaka ke afe, palo (haeba ho boletsoe esale pele) e tla phunya lesoba morerong oa lichelete oa chancellor oa UK. Lintlha tsa morao-rao tsa ho hloka mosebetsi bakeng sa UK le tsona li phatlalalitsoe ke ONS ka Labobeli, ba ntseng ba tsoela pele ho boloka palo ea 4% joalo ka sekhahla sa ho hloka mosebetsi, leha litaba tsa UK li phatlalatsa tahlehelo ea mesebetsi e mashome a likete beke le beke ho 2018. E joalo tumellano e kanna ea qala ho belaelloa, ka mokhoa le ts'epahalo ea ONS ea mosebetsi le data ea ho hloka mosebetsi.
« Mmaraka oa lefats'e oa thekiso o bokella mouoane ha lipuo tsa khoebo tsa China le USA li sa tsoele pele haholo mme Trump a phatlalatsa ts'ohanyetso ea naha Oli e fihla holimo ho likhoeli tse tharo ha tšepo ea khoebo e khutla, mebaraka ea Asia ea matlafatsoa ha lipuo tsa China-USA li ea Washington »
Lipuo tse tsoelang pele tsa khoebo ea China-USA, CPI ea Japane, metsotso ea FOMC le mokoloko oa li-PMI tse amanang le Europe, ke liketsahalo tsa bohlokoa tsa khalendara tse nang le tšusumetso e kholo ho beha leihlo bekeng ena.
Hlakola 18 • Lingoloa tsa Forex Trading, Litlhaloso tsa Mmaraka, Moqolo oa Hoseng • 1613 Maikutlo • litlhaloso Off lipuong tse ntseng li tsoela pele tsa China le USA tsa khoebo, CPI ea Japane, metsotso ea FOMC le mokoloko oa li-PMI tse amanang le Europe, ke liketsahalo tsa bohlokoa tsa khalendara tse nang le tšusumetso e kholo ho beha leihlo bekeng ena.
Limmaraka tsa lichelete tsa USA li qetile ka katleho ka Labohlano la la 15 Hlakola, DJIA e koetse 1.74% 'me SPX ea nyoloha ka 1.09%. Ho kengoa tšebetsong ha maemo a tšohanyetso a naha ke Trump, ho fumana chelete bakeng sa lebota la hae la moeli oa Mexico, ho ne ho sa lekana ho theola boits'epo ba mmaraka, joalo ka ha ts'epo e ile ea ntlafatsoa lenaneong la khoebo la New York, hore lipuo tsa khoebo le tsa litefiso tsa USA-China li tla baka litholoana tse ntle sephetho.
La 1 Hlakubele e behiloe joalo ka letsatsi la ho felisa tumellano, ho thibela litefiso tsa kantle ho naha tsa 25% ho sebelisoa ho $ 200b ea kantle ho naha ea China ho ea USA. Tšokelo ena e sa hlonepheng ea tsamaiso ea Trump, e bonahala e le boikoetliso bo sa hlonepheng ke 'muso oa USA, ho qala ho fokotsa khaello ea eona e kholo ea khoebo le China, ka khopolo ke circa $ 50b ka 2019. Leha ho le joalo, moruong o hokahaneng lefatšeng ka bophara, lipalo tse bonolo joalo ke ho ke ke ha etsahala hore o fumane tharollo, haeba o ka kenngwa tšebetsong
Ho hloleha ho fihlela tumellano ho ka etsa hore mebaraka ea lichelete ea USA e fetohe le dollar ea Amerika e hlahlojoe haholo nakong ea beke ea khoebo. Kameho ea lichelete tsa lichelete le lichelete e ka atoloha ho mebaraka e meng ea lefatše, haholo mebaraka ea Asia, e natefelitsoeng ke kopano ea bohlokoa selemong sa 2019 ho fihlela joale. Leha e rekisitsoe ka lichelete tsa China ka Labohlano, ha CSI e koala 1.86%, index e nyolohile ka 10.9% ka 2019. Ka mokhoa o ts'oanang, mebaraka e meholo ea Majapane e bile le qalo e ntle ho 2019; leha e koetse 1.1.3% ka Labohlano, index ea NIKKEI e phahame ka 4.43% selemo ho fihlela joale ho 2019.
Empa ho phahama hona ha morao tjena ho tlameha ho bonoa moelelong oa ho oela ho 20,900 ka Labohlano ho index e etelletseng pele ea Japane, ho tloha holimo ho circa 24,450, e hatisitsoeng ka 2018. 'Me limmaraka tsohle tsa Asia tsa equity li kanna tsa oela, haeba USA-China kamano ea senyeha. Mmuso oa Japane le ona o kanna oa ba radar ea tsamaiso ea Trump, haeba ba lumela hore khaello ea khoebo ea selemo le selemo ea $ 70b le Japane e hloka ho rarolloa. Selemo le selemo, USD / JPY e nyoloha ka circa 4.06%, e beha sekoaelo se sebetsang khaellong ea khoebo le Japane, hajoale.
Ka Sontaha mantsiboea liodara tsa morao-rao tsa mochini oa Japane li tla phatlalatsoa, tebello ke hore YoY ho phahama ha 3.4% ho tla ngolisoa. Yen e kanna ea hlahlojoa le ho feta ka lebaka la tokollo ena, haeba e ka hloloheloa kapa ea otla ponelopele. Lipalo-palo tsa morao-rao tsa infoleishene bakeng sa Japane le tsona li ka khutlisetsa maikutlo ho Yen, ha lipalo tsa morao-rao tsa theko ea moruo oa bone o moholo ka ho fetisisa lefatšeng li phatlalatsoa hamorao bekeng, ka Labone la la 4 ho isa ho 21:23 bosiu. Ho latela ponelopele ea morao-rao ea Reuters, sekhahla sa theko ea mantlha ea CPI se theohetse ho 30% ho tloha 0.2%, ka Pherekhong YoY. Litaba tse ling tsa khalendara mabapi le moruo oa Japane bekeng ena, tse ka amang boleng ba yen, li kenyelletsa lipalo tsa morao-rao tsa kantle ho naha le kantle ho naha, tse boletsoeng esale pele ke Reuters ho senyeha ho YoY ho fihlela ka Pherekhong, leha tekanyetso ea khoebo ka kakaretso e lebelletsoe ho senola bophelo bo botle ntlafatso.
Ho sa natsoe likhohlano tse ntseng li tsoela pele tsa khoebo le tsoelo-pele e 'ngoe e ka bang teng lipolotiking, ho na le liketsahalo tse' maloa tsa khalendara tse nang le tšusumetso e kholo tse ka amang boleng ba mebaraka ea lichelete tsa USA le boleng ba USD hara beke. Haholo-holo; ho tla phatlalatsoa metsotso ea kopano ea FOMC ea Pherekhong. Qetellong eo sekhahla sa phaello ea bohlokoa se lutseng se sa fetohe ho 2.5% ha Jerome Powell, molulasetulo oa Fed, a fana ka polelo e makatsang ea leano la lichelete.
Ho tloha khale, metsotso ea FOMC e na le bokhoni ba ho tsamaisa mmaraka ka USD khahlanong le lithaka tsa eona, haholo haeba tataiso ea pele e fumanehang metsotsong e bonahala e kheloha boitlamo ba pejana. Batseteli le baqhekelli ba tla batla bopaki bofe kapa bofe ba hore FOMC / Fed e batla ho khutlisa boitlamo ba bona ba pele; ho nyolla sekhahla sa tsoala makhetlo a mararo, nakong ea 2019.
Litaba tse kholo tsa khalendara ea tšusumetso e kholo bakeng sa Europe hara beke, li kenyelletsa li-PMI tsa morao-rao tsa IHS Markit, tse tla phatlalatsoa ka Labone. Li-Eurozone's, tsa Jeremane le tsa Fora: tlhahiso, lits'ebeletso le ho bapisa li-PMI, li tla senoloa. Bahlahlobisisi le barekisi ba FX ba tla lekola likhaolo ka hloko, bakeng sa matšoao a hore likarolo tsohle li kanna tsa bapala le moruo. Lipalo tse kaholimo ho 50 li supa kholo, ka tlase ho 50 li emela khutsufatso
Tšoantšiso e tsoelang pele ea Brexit e tla ba maemong a holimo le bahoebi ba FX, ba ikhethang ka ho rekisa lipara tse ntle tsa lichelete bekeng ena. Joalo ka bekeng e fetileng, lipara tse kang GBP / USD, tseo ka linako tse ling li ileng tsa otloa ka liphaphatha ka bongata, ha li ntse li boloka pono e felletseng, joalo ka ha lipale tse fapaneng tsa litaba tse mabapi le Brexit li ile tsa robeha. Bekeng ena litaba tse kholo tsa khalendara tse nang le tšusumetso e kholo mabapi le UK li kenyelletsa lipalo tsa morao-rao tsa kalimo ea lekala la sechaba, tse lebelletsoeng hore li tla mpefala khoeling ea Pherekhong. Ntle le lihlopha tsa banka, khaello e boletsoe ke Reuters ho tla ka - £ 10b bakeng sa khoeli, ho fapana le £ 3b ka Tshitwe.
Ho senyeha ho joalo hoa ponelopele (haeba ho ka kopana), ho ka makatsa batseteli le likhakanyo. Ka tlhaho Brexit e kanna ea sebelisoa e le lebaka le lokisitsoeng, joalo ka nako ea selemo, mabapi le lirisiti tsa lekhetho, le eona e ka beoa molato. Hore na mabaka ke afe, palo (haeba ho boletsoe esale pele) e tla phunya lesoba morerong oa lichelete oa chancellor oa UK. Lintlha tsa morao-rao tsa ho hloka mosebetsi bakeng sa UK le tsona li phatlalalitsoe ke ONS ka Labobeli, ba ntseng ba tsoela pele ho boloka palo ea 4% joalo ka sekhahla sa ho hloka mosebetsi, leha litaba tsa UK li phatlalatsa tahlehelo ea mesebetsi e mashome a likete beke le beke ho 2018. E joalo tumellano e kanna ea qala ho belaelloa, ka mokhoa le ts'epahalo ea ONS ea mosebetsi le data ea ho hloka mosebetsi.
« Mmaraka oa lefats'e oa thekiso o bokella mouoane ha lipuo tsa khoebo tsa China le USA li sa tsoele pele haholo mme Trump a phatlalatsa ts'ohanyetso ea naha Oli e fihla holimo ho likhoeli tse tharo ha tšepo ea khoebo e khutla, mebaraka ea Asia ea matlafatsoa ha lipuo tsa China-USA li ea Washington »