Lintoa tsa lichelete; Ke melemo efe (haeba e teng) eo ba ka e fang Mohoebi oa Forex?
Mario Draghi, mopresidente oa ECB, ho bonahala a tšoenyehile ka hore euro e phahame haholo ho feta USD. EUR / USD haufinyane e tlotse sephethephethe sa 1.2500 ka lekhetlo la pele ka nako e fetang lilemo tse tharo, o tšoenyehile ka hore boemong bona bo ka lematsa thepa e romeloang kantle ho naha mme bo senya ho hlaphoheloa (ho senyeha habonolo) hoo Eurozone e leng ho eona, e leng circa tse peli feela, mohlomong lilemo tse tharo ho ba botsitso .
Mopresidente Trump o phatlalalitse hore USD e ne e phahame haholo mathoasong a 2017, ka nako eo mongoli oa hae oa matlotlo Mnuchin o ile a pheta khang e ts'oanang, ea hore chelete e ne e le holimo haholo, kopanong ea WEF e Davos bekeng e fetileng. Eaba Trump o qala ho hanyetsa le ho eletsa mongoli oa hae oa matlotlo ka ho phatlalatsa Davos hore o batla ho sireletsa dolara.
BOJ e batla yen e fokolang ho ntšetsa pele lenaneo la Abenomics, e thusa ho hlola deflation le ho ntšetsa pele kholo ea bona ea haufinyane joalo ka (leha ho na le menyenyetsi ho fapana le hoo), Japane e ntse e le matla a tlhahiso, a nang le lihlahisoa tsa malapa tseo kaofela re li ratang, joalo ka joalo ka; Sony, Honda, Suzuki, Panasonic jj e ntse e tsoela pele ka pele.
Ka mokhoa o ts'oanang Machaena a hloka chelete ea batho ba bona renminbi (yuan) hore ba lule ba le tlase, molemong oa ho ntšetsa pele nako ea bona e makatsang ea tlhahiso. Leha e le boiteko bo matla USD / CNH e oele ho tloha ho 70.00 ho isa 64.00 ka 2017, ho etsa hore thepa e romelloang kantle ho naha e lekantsoe ka tekanyo ea machabeng, e theko e phahameng haholo.
Hape ho na le bothata ba mmuso oa UK le Bank of England, ba sa tsebeng ho iketsetsa liqeto (ho latela maikutlo a letsatsi) haeba ponto e fokolang e ntle bakeng sa kantle ho naha le tlhahiso (liperesente tse nyane tsa ts'ebetso ea UK). Kapa e mpe bakeng sa moruo, motheong oa hore joalo ka ha khoebo e etelletsoeng pele / e tsamaisoa ke bareki e its'etleha haholo ho thepa e theko e tlase, ponto e fokolang e khetha ...
Kahoo ke tlaleho e khuts'oane feela ea hore na re hokae mabapi le se ka bitsoang "lintoa tsa lichelete". Ka lehlohonolo, ho rona re le barekisi ba lichelete, sena sohle: maikutlo, lintlha, boemo ba lipolotiki le metric ea moruo, li kenngoa ka 'mincer' e kholo ea FX 'me ho tsoa ntlheng e' ngoe ho tla theko ea rona bakeng sa lipara tse kholo tsa lichelete. Mme ha re ntse re lumela hore yuan ha e khetholloe semolao e le para e kholo ea lichelete, kaha ha e phaphamala / e fetoloa ka bolokolohi, kapa e emetse boleng ba ho hoeba e le para ea lichelete ha e bapisoa le li-majors, tšusumetso ea eona le kameho ea eona mebarakeng ea forex ea lefatše le chelete lipara tseo re li rekisang, li ke keng tsa hlokomolohuoa.
Lintoa tsa lichelete, mohlala o phethahetseng oa kakaretso ea zero
Khang e tloaelehileng ke hore ha ho motho ea ruang molemo lintoeng tsa lichelete, 'me qeto e joalo e nepahetse; haeba re lekanya phaello efe kapa efe ho latela pono ea moruo. Ha re sebeliseng USA v China e le mohlala. Ho latela maikutlo a fapaneng le a loantšanang a tsoang ho tsamaiso ea repaboliki ea USA le FOMC / Fed, baetsi ba liqeto USA ba ke ke ba etsa likelello tsa bona haeba ba batla dolara e tlase, kapa e holimo ho feta yuan. Tšusumetso e akaretsang e bonahala e le sesepa sa lehlakoreng le ts'okelo e lebisitsoeng ho China; ho na le lipelaelo tsa hore Trump o batla feela approx. Khaello ea khoebo ea $ 500b le China hore e nyamele ka tsela e itseng, e ke ke ea khona, e tlameha ho rekisoa.
Empa USA e ka ba le tekanyetso e kholo ea khaello ea khoebo ebile e le naha e labalabelang ho theha nchafatso ea tlhahiso, ka tšohanyetso e khutlisetsa boemo boo mme ka tsela e itseng e qobelle yuan fatše? Ba ka se khone. Mme ha moruo o its'etleha haholo ho thepa e kenang kantle ho naha, kantle ho naha China e ka ba theko e tlase ho ea USA ka yuan e fokolang, empa ho kenella ha China ho China ho tsoa USA le theko ea oli ka lidolara, e ka ba theko e phahameng haholo, mme qetellong ea etsa hore tlhahiso e be theko e phahameng haholo mme haeba Lits'enyehelo tsa China tsa ho kenya li nyoloha ka lebaka la yuan e fokolang, ebe phello ea lefatše lohle e ka ba mpe haholo. Khopolo ea hore Machaena a tla rera hore yuan e matla e ka senya tlhahiso le matla a bona a ho rekisa kantle ho naha e bonahala e sa lumellane le litabatabelo tsa bona. Joale USA e ka hlola ntoa ea lichelete le China joang? Ha li khone, ke bobeli ba zero ebile ke mofuta oa ts'enyeletso, oa moruo.
Bahoebi ba lichelete tsa Forex ba ka rua molemo lintoeng tsa lichelete
Ka linako tse ling, ha re nahana ka maemo a lipolotiki a boletsoeng ka holimo, ha ho makatse hore ebe re sheba lichelete le lipara tseo re khethang ho li rekisa ebe rea ipotsa hore na re khona ho li rekisa joang. Kapa re kanna ra ba le tjantjello ea ho tseba hore na hobaneng limmaraka tsa forex li sa ikamahanye le likhahla tse pharalletseng tseo re pakang ho tsona, mohlala, limmaraka tsa crypto tse kang BTC / USD (bitcoin v dollar). Empa leha ho na le litaba tsena tse kholo le tse khahlang tsa lipolotiki le moruo; khohlano e kholo ea ntoa e teng lipakeng tsa bareki le barekisi ba euro / lidolara, limmaraka tsa rona tsa forex li (ka litekanyo tse ling) li tsitsitse ka mokhoa o makatsang. Karolo ea 0.5% ea letsatsi le letsatsi ho GBP / USD e ka nkuoa e le bophara, mofuta oa 1% o ka nkuoa o sa tloaelehang, 'maraka oa rona o ka bang $ 5 trillion ka' maraka oa letsatsi o tsitsitse ka mokhoa o makatsang. Leha ho na le litšusumetso tse kholo tse boletsoeng pejana le ho se lumellane ho eketsehileng lipakeng tsa matla a phahameng a moruo; USA, China, Japane le Eurozone, litaba tsena li ka ntlafatsa menyetla ea rona feela.
Khafetsa re ka fetoha ba tsitsitseng le ho nts'etsapele pono ea kotopo mabapi le khoebo ea rona ea forex, leha ho le joalo, ho bohlokoa hore joalo ka barekisi re se ke ra lebala seo re se rekisang le hore na hobaneng se le teng. Limmaraka tsa rona tsa forex li teng haholoholo ho theola litšenyehelo tsa litšebelisano lipakeng tsa likhoebo tsa machabeng, ha ea ka ea e-ba teng ho rona barekisi ba rekisang ho nka phaello 'marakeng. Haeba re bala kapa re utloa ka mohopolo oa "lintoa tsa lichelete" mecheng ea litaba tse kholo likhoeling tse tlang joale ka tlhaho, joalo ka barekisi ba forex, manakana a rona a khoebo a tla sisinyeha. Empa lintoa tsena tsa lichelete li bile teng ka mefuta e mengata ea mashome a 'maloa a lilemo mme ntle le pelaelo ea ntlafala: mekhoa, mekoloto le tšebetso khoebong ea rona ea forex, e ka bang molemo feela bakeng sa menyetla ea rona.
« Batseteli ba tla shebana le palo ea morao-rao ea GDP ea UK e phatlalalitsoeng ka Labone, ho netefatsa hore na moruo o etsoa ke Brexit e tlang Lichelete tsa Amerika li a rekisa, ho oa ha khauta, UK ponto e nyoloha ho tšepo ea Brexit, mme fantisi ea polokelo ea matlotlo ea Amerika e phahamisa lintši »
